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Portrait of Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn

My writing for The Upshot and my newsletter, The Tilt, is analytical, explanatory, empirical and data-driven. I’m also responsible for the methodology of the New York Times/Siena College survey, which I started in 2016. I work closely with our election results and election analytics teams to make election night projections and to build our live election night forecast, known as the Needle.

I started at The Times in 2013. Before that, I was a staff writer for The New Republic and a research assistant at The Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington. I’ve won several awards over the years, most recently the Citrin Award for achievements in public opinion research from the Citrin Center at the University of California at Berkeley. Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, gives the New York Times/Siena College poll an A+ grade and rates it as the most accurate poll in America.

There is a responsibility to accurately and fairly represent the views and attitudes of the electorate in a democratic society, and I take that responsibility very seriously. I am committed to maintaining the highest level of transparency and The Times has an extensive ethics policy. I do not accept gifts, money or favors. I do not participate in politics. I don’t make political donations. I also make a personal choice not to register with a political party, or to vote.

Latest

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    Donald Trump’s America

    How the former president staged his comeback and how he might change the direction of the country.

    By Michael Barbaro, Nate Cohn, Peter Baker, Asthaa Chaturvedi, Shannon M. Lin, Mary Wilson, Luke Vander Ploeg, Stella Tan, Nina Feldman, Clare Toeniskoetter, Will Reid, Mooj Zadie, Devon Taylor, Brendan Klinkenberg, Sophia Lanman, Marion Lozano, Rowan Niemisto and Alyssa Moxley

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    TimesVideo

    Trump, Again

    In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Donald J. Trump was elected president for a second time. Shortly before that call was made, the Times journalists Michael Barbaro, Nate Cohn, Lisa Lerer and Astead W. Herndon sat down to discuss the state of the election.

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    TimesVideo

    Trump, Again

    In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Donald J. Trump was elected president for a second time. Shortly before that call was made, the Times journalists Michael Barbaro, Nate Cohn, Lisa Lerer and Astead W. Herndon sat down to discuss the state of the election.

    By Michael Barbaro

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    Trump, Again

    An early-morning conversation about the state of the election and the potential consequences of a second term for Donald J. Trump.

    By Michael Barbaro, Nate Cohn, Lisa Lerer, Astead W. Herndon, Rob Szypko, Diana Nguyen, Jessica Cheung, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Rachel Quester, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Chris Wood, Alyssa Moxley, Mark Zemel, Eddie Costas, Sawyer Roque, Elliot deBruyn, Sophie Erickson and Brooke Minters

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    TimesVideo

    How We Model Election Results With the Needle

    Our live election night forecast is known as “the Needle.” Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, explains how it works.

    By Nate Cohn, Claire Hogan and James Surdam

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    These 8 Counties Could Hint at Where the Election Is Headed

    While the nation awaits statewide results after the polls close on Election Day, a number of counties could offer insight into whether different demographic groups are voting for Kamala Harris or Donald J. Trump.

    By Maggie Astor and Nate Cohn

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    A Guide to Election Night 2024

    It’s Election Day. Here’s how to understand the results.

    By Michael Barbaro, Nate Cohn, Olivia Natt, Eric Krupke, Jessica Cheung, Carlos Prieto, Alex Stern, Mary Wilson, Asthaa Chaturvedi, M.J. Davis Lin, Elisheba Ittoop, Rowan Niemisto and Alyssa Moxley

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