When Trump joked about annexing my country, Canada, I thought of my old neighbors.
Both of their kids were born in the United States. The parents had grown up in Canada but lived in multiple states while the mother did a PhD and secured a tenure-track teaching job. When Donald Trump was elected in 2016, they noticed U.S. culture changing. The father's work visa was revoked. After the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack they decided to leave the U.S.
Like the many thousands of Americans who started researching how to immigrate to Canada after Trump's 2024 win, they realized life could be better here and moved in next to me. Except Trump is now making life difficult for Canadians, too.
Trump has promised mass deportations. These refugees, along with willing immigrants, may mean Canada will soon see a population bump from the U.S. Theoretically, that's a positive thing for a huge country like Canada—but not right now. Our population grew by 3.2 percent last year, the highest rate since 1957. The Canadian government has reduced its immigration target by 21 percent for next year.
The main reason is housing. We have a seemingly intractable housing crisis. Development policies in recent decades, particularly in our big cities, have not produced the housing stock we need. There aren't a lot of places for immigrants, or anyone, to live.
Twenty-five international students were found sharing a single basement apartment near Toronto, where I live, this year. Toronto is full of tiny condos that no one except speculators and investors want. For the houses we do have, internal migration during COVID spiked prices across the country. I moved myself in 2022, away from a small town on Canada's East Coast. Before I did, a place up the street from me and my old neighbors listed for two-and-a-half times the price it went for five years earlier. And it sold.
Another big concern for Canadians as Trump returns to power are our military alliances. Trump's distaste for NATO and embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin may mean a Ukraine-like invasion of the Canadian Arctic. Putin is clearly open to such an action. Perhaps Trump would be too, extending the U.S. border from Alaska through Canada's northern territories.
Or for an even bolder annexation, Trump may look to the province of Alberta. The political culture there is very right-leaning. Instead of partnering with Canada on an oil pipeline like the Keystone XL, why not just take the land at the source where the oil is produced?
When Trump met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over Thanksgiving, he joked about the boldest annexation of all: the whole of Canada. He has promised 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods and told Trudeau that Canada could become the 51st state if we didn't like them.
On Truth Social, Trump escalated the "joke" by posting an AI-generated image of himself next to the Canadian flag with the caption "Oh Canada!"
A week later, Trump called Trudeau "governor" of the "Great State of Canada."
If major military action on North American soil feels unlikely, Trump's tariffs on Canadian goods do not. They could transform our economy: over 80 percent of our exports go to the U.S. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates Trump's tariffs will cause our GDP to lose 2.6 percent (CAD $78 billion). It also estimates U.S. GDP will lose 1.6 percent (USD $467 billion).
This amounts to a loss of $1,900 CAD per person for Canadians and $1,300 USD for Americans—annually.
These tariffs don't make economic sense. The Canada-U.S. relationship across many industries is collaborative, not competitive. U.S. refineries have been purpose-built to process heavier Canadian crude oil. Car manufacturers rely on companies on both sides of the border to make parts to build cars.
Trump's tariffs will likely result in retaliation from Canada. When he taxed Canadian steel and aluminum during his first presidency, Canada responded by taxing U.S. bourbon and many other goods.
I would argue that instead of fighting, we should be focused on how we can build more. Together.
And for those still considering a move to Canada, please keep in mind that Donald Trump could be hot on your heels.
Angus MacCaull is a Canadian journalist who's written for Maclean's, Toronto Star, Canadian Business and more. He lives with his family in Toronto.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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