America Could See Surge in People Not Voting

The 2024 presidential election could see an uptick in Americans not voting from the 2020 election, according to results from a recent survey.

Political observers view the 2024 election as one of the most important races in modern history, as President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, are set to face off in a rematch of 2020. The two have sparred over issues ranging from the economy, abortion rights, the Israel-Hamas war and democracy as election season continues to heat up.

However, more Americans are considering sitting out of the election than they were at this point in 2020, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll.

The poll, conducted among 1,615 registered voters between June 5 to 7, found that only 80 percent of respondents said they will definitely vote in November.

This is down from the same time in 2020, when a CBS News/YouGov poll found that 83 percent of Americans were definitely going to vote. That poll was conducted among 2,200 adults from April 28 to May 1, 2020. A July 21 to 24, 2020 poll, among 2,008 adults, found that 89 percent of Americans would definitely vote.

While the difference may seem small, small changes in voter turnout could have significant impacts on the election, which will likely be decided by narrow margins in only a handful of swing states.

Biden's 2020 victory was carried by three states he won by less than a single percentage point and three states decided by less than five points.

"Small changes in turnout could be pivotal in battleground states. Many recent presidential elections have been decided by razor-thin margins in key battleground states, and turnout changes could have swung the result the other way," Anthony Fowler, a professor of public policy at the University of Chicago, told Newsweek.

Americans may be less interested in voting this year because Biden and Trump are both "historically controversial and unpopular candidates," Fowler said. Many voters, particularly moderates and independents, may be disappointed with their options.

Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, noted that turnout could be diminished by the war in Gaza that is "deeply upsetting a lot of people," particularly younger, progressive voters. Many Americans not necessarily feeling economic improvements could also be a contributing factor.

"[There's] a general unhappiness about the direction the country is headed, as well as the current state of politics, combined with the perception that neither main party candidate is doing much to help that problem, or even wants to," he said.

Does Biden or Trump Benefit From Lower Turnout?

Depressed turnout will likely help Trump more than Biden, Reeher said.

"Republicans historically have had more consistent turnout, and the particular issues deflating voters seem to be more concentrated on the Democratic side—especially among younger voters, who President Biden has been courting heavily," he said.

According to the United States Census Bureau, 66.8 percent of eligible voters participated in the 2020 election. This marked a rise from 2016, when Trump eked out an Electoral College victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Fowler noted that higher turnout has historically been better for Democrats, as "older, white, richer, churchgoing people were more likely to vote," and they used to skew Republican. However, this may be changing due to Democratic gains among college-educated voters, he said.

"It's no longer obvious that higher turnout would benefit the Democrats. There are likely a lot of disaffected, working-class people who are less likely to vote but prefer Trump over Biden," he said.

Meena Bose, the executive dean of Hofstra University's Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek there are several ways candidates can improve turnout.

"Voter outreach, active campaigning and encouraging party members to vote are all key strategies to building political support for the presidential campaign," she said.