Business, Government & the International Economy

- April–June 2026
- Article
El modelo económico de China [China's Economic Model]

By: Meg Rithmire

China's 2025 trade surplus of $1.2 trillion signals neither decline nor unchallenged dominance, but rather a paradox that has become the defining feature of its political economy. Decades of industrial policy—culminating in Made in China 2025 and its successors—have produced world-class firms and technologies at staggering speed, even as domestic demand stagnates, real estate deflates, and youth unemployment persists. The same campaign-style mobilization that generated global champions also produced damaging "involution," or negative-sum hypercompetition, that Beijing is now scrambling to reverse. China's growth engine endures, but its sustainability—economically and politically—depends less on decisions made in Beijing or Washington than on whether Chinese citizens and a fragmented world find ways to reckon with an economy that produces far more than it consumes.
- April–June 2026
- Article
El modelo económico de China [China's Economic Model]

By: Meg Rithmire

China's 2025 trade surplus of $1.2 trillion signals neither decline nor unchallenged dominance, but rather a paradox that has become the defining feature of its political economy. Decades of industrial policy—culminating in Made in China 2025 and its successors—have produced world-class firms and technologies at staggering speed, even as domestic...
- May 2026
- Article
Asymmetric Mass Mobilization and the Vincibility of Democracy in Hungary

By: Laura Jakli, Béla Greskovits and Jason Wittenberg

Using an original dataset of partisan protest events in Hungary (n = 4836) spanning 1989 to 2011, we argue that left-liberal parties’ neglect in cultivating civil society during the post-communist period had deleterious downstream effects on Hungarian liberal democracy. First, it enabled the growth of an illiberal, right-wing civil society that facilitated Fidesz-KDNP’s 2010 landslide electoral victory. Second, it deprived the left-liberals of mobilization resources that could have been used to carry out contentious collective action to counter Fidesz-KDNP’s early maneuvers at democratic backsliding, in particular their constitutional overhaul. The data allow us to trace patterns in partisan protest over time and across cities, illustrating the dangers of asymmetric mass mobilization (AMM) during the prevention and containment periods.
- May 2026
- Article
Asymmetric Mass Mobilization and the Vincibility of Democracy in Hungary

By: Laura Jakli, Béla Greskovits and Jason Wittenberg

Using an original dataset of partisan protest events in Hungary (n = 4836) spanning 1989 to 2011, we argue that left-liberal parties’ neglect in cultivating civil society during the post-communist period had deleterious downstream effects on Hungarian liberal democracy. First, it enabled the growth of an illiberal, right-wing civil society that...
- April 2026
- Case
The U.S. Clean Energy Transition in 2025

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Nicole Zelazko
- April 2026
- Case
The U.S. Clean Energy Transition in 2025

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Nicole Zelazko

About the Unit

The BGIE Unit conducts research on, and teaches about, the economic, political, social, and legal environment in which business operates. The Unit includes scholars trained in economics, political science, and history; in its work, it draws on perspectives from all three of these disciplines.

The following demonstrates one way of classifying the approaches the Unit takes to learning and teaching.

The Unit examines the “rules” and policies established by government and other non-business institutions that affect business in the United States.
The Unit turns to history to understand the origins of today’s business environment as well as some of the alternatives that have emerged from time to time.
The Unit examines other countries’ business environments and their historical development.
The BGIE group is deeply interested in the impact of globalization and the way rules are emerging to govern international economic transactions as globalization proceeds.

Recent Publications

El modelo económico de China [China's Economic Model]

By: Meg Rithmire

April–June 2026 |
Article |
Vanguardia Dossier

China's 2025 trade surplus of $1.2 trillion signals neither decline nor unchallenged dominance, but rather a paradox that has become the defining feature of its political economy. Decades of industrial policy—culminating in Made in China 2025 and its successors—have produced world-class firms and technologies at staggering speed, even as domestic demand stagnates, real estate deflates, and youth unemployment persists. The same campaign-style mobilization that generated global champions also produced damaging "involution," or negative-sum hypercompetition, that Beijing is now scrambling to reverse. China's growth engine endures, but its sustainability—economically and politically—depends less on decisions made in Beijing or Washington than on whether Chinese citizens and a fragmented world find ways to reckon with an economy that produces far more than it consumes.

Citation

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Asymmetric Mass Mobilization and the Vincibility of Democracy in Hungary

By: Laura Jakli, Béla Greskovits and Jason Wittenberg

May 2026 |
Article |
Comparative Political Studies

Using an original dataset of partisan protest events in Hungary (n = 4836) spanning 1989 to 2011, we argue that left-liberal parties’ neglect in cultivating civil society during the post-communist period had deleterious downstream effects on Hungarian liberal democracy. First, it enabled the growth of an illiberal, right-wing civil society that facilitated Fidesz-KDNP’s 2010 landslide electoral victory. Second, it deprived the left-liberals of mobilization resources that could have been used to carry out contentious collective action to counter Fidesz-KDNP’s early maneuvers at democratic backsliding, in particular their constitutional overhaul. The data allow us to trace patterns in partisan protest over time and across cities, illustrating the dangers of asymmetric mass mobilization (AMM) during the prevention and containment periods.

Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; Civil Society or Community; Government Administration; Hungary

Citation

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The U.S. Clean Energy Transition in 2025

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Nicole Zelazko

April 2026 |
Case |
Faculty Research

Citation

Educators

Edita: Making Choices in Uncertain Times

By: Juan Alcácer and Caroline M. Elkins

April 2026 |
Teaching Note |
Faculty Research

Citation

Purchase

China's Diffusion-Forward AI Strategy: Chatbots, Robots, and Political Economic Possibilities

By: Hao Chen and Meg Rithmire

2026 |
Working Paper |
Faculty Research

The United States and China are pursuing fundamentally different artificial intelligence strategies, a divergence that has been largely obscured by the prevailing focus on large language model competition and frontier model capabilities. Drawing on official policy documents, original registration data for generative AI services in China, and a patent-based case study of humanoid robotics firm UBTECH, this paper documents China's "diffusion-forward" strategy: a state-directed effort to embed AI as a general-purpose technology across the physical economy, with particular emphasis on manufacturing, industrial robotics, and embodied AI. We show that China's approach is enabled by distinctive political-economic institutions — decentralized but hierarchical governance, the investor-state model, and campaign-style industrial policy — and is already producing measurable commercial outcomes. These findings reframe the AI competition debate: the decisive contest may be less about which country achieves artificial general intelligence first and more about which political economy can more rapidly diffuse AI into productive activity.

Citation

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Analyzing the Impact of Events Through Surveys: Formalizing Biases and Introducing the Dual Randomized Survey Design

By: Andrew Bertoli, Laura Jakli and Henry Pascoe

April 2026 |
Article |
Political Science Research and Methods

Social scientists often compare survey responses before and after important events to test how those events impact respondent beliefs, attitudes, and preferences. This article offers a formal analysis of such pre-event/post-event survey comparisons, including designs that seek to reduce bias using quota sampling, rolling cross-sections, and panels. Our analysis distinguishes major sources of bias and clarifies the comparative strengths and weaknesses of each approach. We then introduce a modified panel design—the dual randomized survey—to reduce bias in cases where asking respondents to complete the same survey twice could impact their Wave 2 responses. Our formalization of bias and novel research design improve scholars’ ability to study the causal impact of events through surveys.

Keywords: Attitudes; Surveys; Prejudice and Bias; Research

Citation

Altana: Can Private Data Build Public Trade Infrastructure?

By: Meg Rithmire and Bradley Holland

March 2026 |
Case |
Faculty Research

AltanaAI was founded in 2019 with a thesis that globalization was under terrific scrutiny, if not existential threat, and that better data could help companies and governments manage supply chains. Through its "Altana Atlas" platform, the company focused its first few years on using artificial intelligence to billions of data points to help governments, logistics providers, and major enterprises manage compliance, risk assessment, carbon tracking, and supply chain optimization. Notable customers included Boston Scientific, Maersk, L.L.Bean, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and the UK Department of Business and Trade. In July 2024, Altana raised $200 million in SeriesC funding, achieving a $1 billion valuation. But the Series C funding also brought a pivot, as the company under founder Evan Smith moved to develop a “product passport,” a digital product identity that would document the entire supply chain of a product at a border.