Covid-19: Are we seeing a summer wave?

Is the UK seeing another covid wave?

May and June saw a rise in the number of people in England testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. The UK Health Security Agency’s covid dashboard shows that, of the people who have received a PCR covid test, positivity has risen from a recent low of 4.28% on 26 March to a high of 13.26% on 22 June. Hospital admission data also indicate that the number of patients in hospital with confirmed covid-19 has been on the rise, although the data have not been updated since the end of May.1

Meanwhile, latest data from the Office for National Statistics show that in the week ending 21 June there were 153 deaths involving covid-19. This equates to 1.5% of all deaths registered in England and Wales that week. This is similar to the week before, when 152 deaths reported (1.4%) involved covid-19.2 In comparison, in both these weeks there were far more deaths involving influenza or pneumonia (1803 in total).3

In Scotland, Public Health Scotland has reported 1153 new covid-19 cases in the week ending 30 June, a rise on the 1119 cases reported the week before. The number of hospital inpatients in Scotland with covid-19 also rose from a seven day average of 487 on 23 June to 564 on 30 June.4

Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said, “The surveillance of covid cases in the UK is far less intensive than it once was, so it is difficult to track the rise and fall of waves of infection, or to assess the severity of different variants, or to know how effective the vaccines are against them.

“Even so, there is a widespread impression of a growing 2024 summer wave, much as we saw in 2021 when (coincidently perhaps) there was also a Euro football tournament, and evidence that this contributed significantly to the spread of infection.”

Is this going to happen every summer?

Woolhouse said we should expect to see the pattern of covid waves “driven by a combination of new variants and a partial waning immunity to infection” in the coming years. He added that, in planning for future pandemics, this showed the importance of paying “attention to the long term as well as to an immediate crisis.”

Christina Pagel, professor of operational research in healthcare at University College London and a member of the Independent SAGE (Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization), said, “Covid is in no way a winter respiratory bug: its behaviour is nothing like flu or RSV [respiratory syncytial virus], the other main respiratory viruses that can cause severe illness and do so every winter. While flu and RSV are pretty much confined to November to March, covid waves can and do happen at any time of year. We are still in three to four waves a year, each causing some disruption to people’s lives, employment, and the NHS.”5

Pagel said she hoped that the UK’s new Labour government would take the opportunity to reset “how we think about covid and airborne diseases more broadly” and look to promote cleaner indoor air and the potential use of facemasks in healthcare settings and on public transport during future waves. She also called for wastewater monitoring to restart.

Can you still get a covid vaccine?

In the UK covid vaccinations are currently not available on the NHS after its spring booster campaign closed on 30 June. While the NHS’s seasonal booster programme is expected to reopen later this year, high street pharmacies have also started selling covid vaccines privately.6

What’s happening in the US and Europe?

Covid cases have also risen in other parts of Europe. At the end of June the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention reported “evidence of increased SARS-CoV-2 activity for some reporting countries in both primary and secondary care, with those aged 65 years and above at greatest risk of experiencing severe disease.” But it added that covid related hospital admissions, intensive care admissions, and deaths “remain low at the EU/EEA level.”7

In the US the number of people testing positive has also been rising, with test positivity increasing by 1.4% in the week to 22 June. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s covid tracker also shows a 23.3% rise in emergency department visits and a 14.3% rise in covid deaths over the same period.8 Despite this, the CDC has emphasised that case numbers are still relatively low. “While there are indications for the potential start of a summer surge, nationally covid-19 activity remains low. CDC will continue to monitor to see if these recent increases persist,” it said.9