Lions vs Texans: Sunday Night Football picks and open thread

Sunday Night Football kicks off tonight at 8:20 p.m. EST as the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions at NRG Stadium.

The Lions are 3.5-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and the total is 49.5 points.

I’m looking forward to seeing how much success Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery (a.k.a Sonic and Knuckles) can have on the ground tonight. From our pals at Pride of Detroit:

The Lions pride themselves on their rushing attack, and on the road, they tend to lean on it early in games to establish themselves as the more physical team. On average, when on the road, the Lions rush for 41 yards above the yardage their opponent typically allows, illustrating Detroit’s desire to control the game on the ground.

There’s a downside to the Texans’ attacking approach that the Lions can take advantage of. Houston’s defensive line aggressively shoots up the field, regardless of whether it is run or pass, and the Lions have the talent to counter with traps and draws. If Detroit can get their backs past that wave, there is a lot of space behind them to run, which is why the Texans are 28th in the NFL in allowing rushing plays of 10+ yards (35 allowed).

Additionally, Houston has the second-highest missed tackle rate in the NFL, and as a result, they are giving up 610 yards after contact (29th) and, on average, allowing runners to gain 3.45 yards after contact per attempt (30th). Essentially, that means if teams have a running back (or two) who can break through tackles, there’s even more opportunity to eat.

According to Next Gen Stats, Montgomery has forced a missed tackle on 34.5% of his rushes this season (48, fifth highest rate in NFL), while Gibbs rushing success rate is 48.5%, which is the best in the NFL.

This is now an open thread. Let us know your thoughts on Lions vs Texans in the comments below!