2020 United States presidential election in Ohio
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 74%  [1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
| Elections in Ohio |
|---|
 |
The 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris against the Republican Party's nominee—incumbent President Donald Trump and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence. Ohio had 18 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
Despite polling showing a very narrow Trump lead, Trump won Ohio with 53.27% of the vote, defeating Biden who received 45.24% of the vote, a margin of 8.03%. Trump won by nearly the same margin that he defeated Hillary Clinton by in 2016. This marked the first time since 1960 that Ohio voted for the losing candidate, breaking a streak of the state voting for 14 consecutive winning candidates that began in 1964. This is the second consecutive election in which the state voted over 10 points to the right of the nation as a whole, evidencing the state's trend towards the Republican Party. With Trump's win in Ohio in 2024, this is the only election between the years of 1964 and 2024 in which Ohio voted for the losing candidate.
Biden became the first Democrat since FDR in 1932[4] to win the White House without carrying the heavily unionized carmaking counties of Mahoning and Trumbull, the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win the White House without carrying Lorain County, the first Democrat since JFK in 1960 to win the White House without Ashtabula, Ottawa, or Portage Counties, and the first since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win without Erie, Stark, or Wood Counties. Furthermore, this is the first time since 1976 that Ohio voted to the right of Texas - a state that last voted Democratic that year. Additionally, this is the first time since 1892 that an incumbent president carried the state while losing reelection nationally. Trump won 81 of Ohio's 88 counties compared to 80 in 2016, the most since Ronald Reagan won 82 in 1984.
Primary elections
[edit]The primary elections were originally scheduled for March 17, 2020. However, on March 16, Governor Mike DeWine recommended moving the primaries to June amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. As the governor does not have the power to unilaterally make this decision, he went to court to request the delay.[5] However, a judge rejected the lawsuit.[6] Later in the day, the state's health director ordered the polls closed as a health emergency.[7] On March 17, the Ohio Supreme Court allowed the primaries to be postponed to June 2.[8] Then on March 25, in-person voting was canceled, and the deadline for mail-in voting was moved back to April 28.[9]
Republican primary
[edit]Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Ohio's 82 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[10]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 713,546 | 100.00 | 82 |
| Total | 713,546 | 100% | 82 |
Democratic primary
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[13] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 647,284 | 72.37 | 115 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 149,683 | 16.74 | 21 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 30,985 | 3.46 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 28,704 | 3.21 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 15,113 | 1.69 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 11,899 | 1.33 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 4,560 | 0.51 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 2,801 | 0.31 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 2,030 | 0.23 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 822 | 0.09 | |
| Andrew Yang (write-in; withdrawn) | 502 | 0.06 | |
| Total | 894,383 | 100% | 136 |
General election
[edit]Final predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[14] | Tossup |
| Inside Elections[15] | Tossup |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Lean R |
| Politico[17] | Tossup |
| RCP[18] | Tossup |
| Niskanen[19] | Tossup |
| CNN[20] | Tossup |
| The Economist[21] | Tossup |
| CBS News[22] | Tossup |
| 270towin[23] | Tossup |
| ABC News[24] | Tossup |
| NPR[25] | Tossup |
| NBC News[26] | Tossup |
| 538[27] | Tossup |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[28] | November 1–2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.7% | 47.6% | 5.7% | Trump +0.9 |
| Real Clear Politics[29] | October 28, 2020 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.3% | 47.3% | 6.4% | Trump +1.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight[30] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.6% | 47.5% | 5.7% | Trump +0.8 |
| Average | 46.6% | 47.5% | 5.9% | Trump +0.9 | ||
June 1, 2020 – October 31, 2020
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Oct 20 – Nov 2 | 6,025 (LV) | ± 2% | 51%[c] | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[32] | Oct 31 – Nov 1 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | – | – | 3%[d] | – |
| Research Co.[33] | Oct 31 – Nov 1 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 47% | – | – | 2%[e] | 4% |
| Swayable[34] | Oct 27 – Nov 1 | 516 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 52% | 47% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[35] | Oct 29 – Nov 1 | 1,136 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 48% | – | – | 1%[f] | 1% |
| Quinnipiac University[36] | Oct 28 – Nov 1 | 1,440 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 47% | – | – | 2%[e] | 8% |
| Survey Monkey/Tableau[31] | Oct 20 – Nov 1 | 5,305 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 47% | – | – | – | |
| Trafalgar Group[37] | Oct 30–31 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 2.96% | 49% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
| Emerson College[38] | Oct 29–31 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49%[g] | 50% | – | – | 2%[e] | – |
| Morning Consult[39] | Oct 22–31 | 2,179 (LV) | ± 2% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| AtlasIntel[40] | Oct 29–30 | 660 (LV) | ± 4% | 50% | 47% | – | – | 3% | – |
| Gravis Marketing[41] | Oct 27–28 | 613 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 8,089 (LV) | – | 51% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University[42] | Oct 23–27 | 1,186 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 48% | – | – | 1%[f] | 8% |
| Swayable[43] | Oct 23–26 | 440 (LV) | ± 6.3% | 55% | 44% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
| Wick Surveys[44] | Oct 24–25 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| Citizen Data[45] | Oct 17–20 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 8% |
| Fox News[46] | Oct 17–20 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3% | 48% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 1%[h] | 3% |
| Morning Consult[39] | Oct 11–20 | 2,271 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[47] | Oct 18–19 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | – | – | 2%[i] | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University[48] | Oct 8–12 | 1,160 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | – | – | 2%[e] | 4% |
| Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[49][A] | Oct 8–11 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 47% | – | – | 2%[e] | 1% |
| Morning Consult[39] | Oct 2–11 | 2,283 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 49% | 46% | – | – | – | – |
| Baldwin Wallace University[50] | Sep 30 – Oct 8 | 1,009 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | 1% | 0% | 1%[j] | 5% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[51] | Oct 2–6 | 661 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 0%[k] | 7%[l] |
| Trafalgar Group[52] | Oct 1–3 | 1,035 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 1%[f] | 4% |
| YouGov/CBS[53] | Sep 30 – Oct 2 | 1,114 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 47% | – | – | 1%[m] | 5% |
| OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum[54][B] | Sep 28 – Oct 1 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 0%[n] | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Sep 1–30 | 4,012 (LV) | – | 51% | 47% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[55][C] | Sep 24–27 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| Fox News[56] | Sep 20–23 | 830 (LV) | ± 3% | 45% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 0%[o] | 2% |
| 907 (RV) | ± 3% | 44% | 49% | 1% | 2% | 2%[p] | 3% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[57] | Sep 17–21 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3% | 47% | 48% | – | – | 2% | 4% |
| Baldwin Wallace University[58] | Sep 9–22 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 1%[j] | 7% |
| Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[59][A] | Sep 11–15 | 556 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48%[q] | 45% | – | – | 5%[r] | 1% |
| Morning Consult[60] | Aug 29 – Sep 7 | 1,963 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 50%[s] | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum[61][B] | Aug 31 – Sep 3 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 51% | 45% | – | – | 2%[p] | 3% |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[62][1] | Sep 1–2 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3% | 47%[g] | 51% | – | – | 3%[d] | – |
| ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute[63][D] | Aug 26 – Sep 1 | 500 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Aug 1–31 | 3,220 (LV) | – | 51% | 48% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult[64] | Aug 21–30 | 1,811 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 50% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[65][A] | Aug 13–17 | 631 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | – | 4%[t] | 2% |
| Morning Consult[64] | Aug 7–16 | 1,744 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 49% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| TargetSmart/Progress Ohio[66][E] | Jul 28 – Aug 3 | 1,249 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 8%[u] | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Jul 1–31 | 3,694 (LV) | – | 52% | 46% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult[67] | Jul 17–26 | 1,741 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 48% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| YouGov/CBS[68] | Jul 21–24 | 1,211 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | – | – | 2%[v] | 7% |
| Zogby Analytics[69] | Jul 21–23 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 1% | – | 11% |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/AGPAC[70][F] | Jul 15–16 | 750 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 50% | – | – | 2%[i] | 2% |
| University of Akron[71] | Jun 24 – Jul 15 | 1,037 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | – | – | 6%[w] | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Jun 8–30 | 1,610 (LV) | – | 50% | 49% | – | – | – | 1% |
| Quinnipiac[72] | Jun 18–22 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 46% | – | – | 4%[x] | 5% |
| Fox News[73] | May 30 – Jun 2 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | – | – | 6%[y] | 6% |
January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult[67] | May 17–26 | 1,720 (LV) | – | 50% | 42% | – | – | |
| Emerson College[74] | May 8–10 | 725 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51%[z] | 49% | – | – | |
| Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University[75] | Apr 20–25 | 797 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 45% | – | 11% | |
| Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes[76] | Mar 17–25 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% | |
| Change Research[77] | Mar 21–23 | 510 (LV) | – | 52% | 44% | – | 5% | |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College[78] | Mar 10–13 | 1,710 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 5% | |
January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[79] | Oct 10–11, 2019 | 776 (V) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
| Climate Nexus[80][aa] | Oct 1–7, 2019 | 1112 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
| 42% | 48% | – | 10% | ||||
| Emerson College[81] | Sep 29 – October 2, 2019 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University[82] | Jul 17–22, 2019 | 1,431 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 50% | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling[83] | Nov 27–28, 2018 | 648 (V) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 48% | – | 8% |
Former candidates
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
|
Hypothetical polling
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown
with Mike Pence and Joe Biden
with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders
with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren
with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
with John Kasich and Generic Democrat
|
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
3,154,834 | 53.27% | +1.96% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
2,679,165 | 45.24% | +2.00% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
67,569 | 1.14% | −2.01% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
18,812 | 0.32% | −0.52% | |
| Write-in | 1,822 | 0.03% | -0.99% | ||
| Total votes | 5,922,202 | 100.00% | |||
By county
[edit]| County[92] | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Various candidates Write-ins |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 9,870 | 81.27% | 2,156 | 17.75% | 92 | 0.76% | 27 | 0.22% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,714 | 63.52% | 12,145 |
| Allen | 33,116 | 68.85% | 14,149 | 29.42% | 590 | 1.23% | 138 | 0.29% | 106 | 0.22% | 18,967 | 39.43% | 48,099 |
| Ashland | 19,407 | 73.50% | 6,541 | 24.77% | 345 | 1.31% | 105 | 0.40% | 7 | 0.03% | 12,866 | 48.73% | 26,405 |
| Ashtabula | 26,890 | 60.79% | 16,497 | 37.29% | 559 | 1.26% | 196 | 0.44% | 95 | 0.21% | 10,393 | 23.50% | 44,237 |
| Athens | 10,862 | 41.58% | 14,772 | 56.55% | 299 | 1.14% | 115 | 0.44% | 72 | 0.28% | −3,910 | −14.97% | 26,120 |
| Auglaize | 20,798 | 80.54% | 4,651 | 18.01% | 260 | 1.01% | 0 | 0.00% | 113 | 0.44% | 16,147 | 62.53% | 25,822 |
| Belmont | 23,560 | 71.09% | 9,138 | 27.57% | 285 | 0.86% | 98 | 0.30% | 60 | 0.18% | 14,422 | 43.52% | 33,141 |
| Brown | 16,480 | 77.96% | 4,380 | 20.72% | 182 | 0.86% | 54 | 0.26% | 43 | 0.20% | 12,100 | 57.24% | 21,139 |
| Butler | 114,392 | 61.26% | 69,613 | 37.28% | 2,177 | 1.17% | 493 | 0.26% | 62 | 0.03% | 44,779 | 23.98% | 186,737 |
| Carroll | 10,745 | 75.49% | 3,251 | 22.84% | 156 | 1.10% | 56 | 0.39% | 25 | 0.18% | 7,494 | 52.65% | 14,233 |
| Champaign | 14,589 | 72.93% | 5,062 | 25.31% | 260 | 1.30% | 55 | 0.27% | 37 | 0.18% | 9,527 | 47.62% | 20,003 |
| Clark | 39,032 | 60.65% | 24,076 | 37.41% | 829 | 1.29% | 245 | 0.38% | 169 | 0.26% | 14,956 | 23.24% | 64,351 |
| Clermont | 74,570 | 67.36% | 34,092 | 30.79% | 1,513 | 1.37% | 0 | 0.00% | 535 | 0.48% | 40,478 | 36.57% | 110,710 |
| Clinton | 15,488 | 75.32% | 4,697 | 22.84% | 270 | 1.31% | 67 | 0.33% | 41 | 0.20% | 10,791 | 52.48% | 20,563 |
| Columbiana | 35,726 | 71.51% | 13,359 | 26.74% | 607 | 1.21% | 162 | 0.32% | 106 | 0.21% | 22,367 | 44.77% | 49,960 |
| Coshocton | 12,325 | 73.50% | 4,125 | 24.60% | 227 | 1.35% | 62 | 0.37% | 29 | 0.17% | 8,200 | 48.90% | 16,768 |
| Crawford | 15,436 | 74.52% | 4,916 | 23.73% | 278 | 1.34% | 53 | 0.26% | 30 | 0.14% | 10,520 | 50.79% | 20,713 |
| Cuyahoga | 202,699 | 32.32% | 416,176 | 66.36% | 4,593 | 0.73% | 2,031 | 0.32% | 1,661 | 0.26% | −213,477 | −34.04% | 627,160 |
| Darke | 22,004 | 81.01% | 4,731 | 17.42% | 331 | 1.22% | 0 | 0.00% | 95 | 0.35% | 17,273 | 63.59% | 27,161 |
| Defiance | 13,038 | 67.27% | 5,981 | 30.86% | 272 | 1.40% | 78 | 0.40% | 12 | 0.06% | 7,057 | 36.41% | 19,381 |
| Delaware | 66,356 | 52.51% | 57,735 | 45.69% | 1,630 | 1.29% | 0 | 0.00% | 653 | 0.52% | 8,621 | 6.82% | 126,374 |
| Erie | 22,160 | 54.83% | 17,493 | 43.28% | 522 | 1.29% | 153 | 0.38% | 88 | 0.22% | 4,667 | 11.55% | 40,416 |
| Fairfield | 50,797 | 60.97% | 31,224 | 37.48% | 1,033 | 1.24% | 223 | 0.27% | 34 | 0.04% | 19,573 | 23.49% | 83,311 |
| Fayette | 9,473 | 75.03% | 2,975 | 23.56% | 132 | 1.05% | 32 | 0.25% | 14 | 0.11% | 6,498 | 51.47% | 12,626 |
| Franklin | 211,237 | 33.40% | 409,144 | 64.68% | 7,718 | 1.22% | 2,169 | 0.34% | 2,264 | 0.26% | −197,907 | −31.28% | 632,532 |
| Fulton | 15,731 | 68.98% | 6,664 | 29.22% | 299 | 1.31% | 71 | 0.31% | 41 | 0.18% | 9,067 | 39.76% | 22,806 |
| Gallia | 10,645 | 77.14% | 2,990 | 21.67% | 132 | 0.96% | 32 | 0.23% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,655 | 55.47% | 13,799 |
| Geauga | 34,143 | 60.95% | 21,201 | 37.84% | 534 | 0.95% | 0 | 0.00% | 143 | 0.26% | 12,942 | 23.11% | 56,021 |
| Greene | 52,072 | 58.74% | 34,798 | 39.26% | 1,458 | 1.64% | 264 | 0.30% | 51 | 0.06% | 17,274 | 19.48% | 88,643 |
| Guernsey | 13,407 | 73.41% | 4,577 | 25.06% | 177 | 0.97% | 67 | 0.37% | 36 | 0.20% | 8,830 | 48.35% | 18,264 |
| Hamilton | 177,886 | 41.28% | 246,266 | 57.15% | 5,211 | 1.21% | 1,389 | 0.32% | 177 | 0.04% | −68,380 | −15.87% | 430,929 |
| Hancock | 26,310 | 67.86% | 11,757 | 30.32% | 580 | 1.50% | 110 | 0.28% | 14 | 0.04% | 14,553 | 37.54% | 38,771 |
| Hardin | 9,949 | 75.10% | 3,062 | 23.11% | 192 | 1.45% | 44 | 0.33% | 0 | 0.00% | 6,887 | 51.99% | 13,247 |
| Harrison | 5,792 | 75.58% | 1,768 | 23.07% | 59 | 0.77% | 36 | 0.47% | 8 | 0.10% | 4,024 | 52.51% | 7,663 |
| Henry | 10,479 | 70.86% | 4,062 | 27.47% | 175 | 1.18% | 44 | 0.30% | 28 | 0.19% | 6,417 | 43.39% | 14,788 |
| Highland | 15,678 | 79.68% | 3,799 | 19.31% | 146 | 0.74% | 0 | 0.00% | 53 | 0.27% | 11,879 | 60.37% | 19,676 |
| Hocking | 9,737 | 70.28% | 3,880 | 28.00% | 162 | 1.17% | 40 | 0.29% | 36 | 0.26% | 5,857 | 42.28% | 13,855 |
| Holmes | 10,796 | 83.19% | 1,994 | 15.36% | 125 | 0.96% | 0 | 0.00% | 63 | 0.49% | 8,802 | 67.83% | 12,978 |
| Huron | 18,956 | 69.72% | 7,759 | 28.54% | 387 | 1.42% | 83 | 0.31% | 53 | 0.02% | 11,197 | 41.18% | 27,190 |
| Jackson | 11,309 | 76.36% | 3,311 | 22.36% | 144 | 0.97% | 0 | 0.00% | 46 | 0.31% | 7,998 | 54.00% | 14,810 |
| Jefferson | 22,828 | 68.30% | 10,018 | 29.98% | 357 | 1.07% | 100 | 0.30% | 118 | 0.35% | 12,810 | 38.32% | 33,421 |
| Knox | 22,340 | 71.01% | 8,589 | 27.30% | 374 | 1.19% | 86 | 0.27% | 70 | 0.22% | 13,751 | 43.71% | 31,459 |
| Lake | 73,278 | 56.03% | 55,514 | 42.45% | 1,284 | 0.98% | 408 | 0.31% | 298 | 0.23% | 17,764 | 13.58% | 130,782 |
| Lawrence | 20,306 | 72.06% | 7,489 | 26.58% | 259 | 0.92% | 0 | 0.00% | 125 | 0.44% | 12,817 | 45.48% | 28,179 |
| Licking | 59,514 | 63.05% | 33,055 | 35.02% | 1,279 | 1.35% | 312 | 0.33% | 236 | 0.25% | 26,459 | 28.03% | 94,396 |
| Logan | 17,964 | 76.74% | 5,055 | 21.59% | 272 | 1.16% | 69 | 0.29% | 49 | 0.21% | 12,909 | 55.15% | 23,409 |
| Lorain | 79,520 | 50.40% | 75,667 | 47.96% | 1,677 | 1.06% | 534 | 0.34% | 370 | 0.23% | 3,853 | 2.44% | 157,768 |
| Lucas | 81,763 | 40.66% | 115,411 | 57.39% | 2,605 | 1.30% | 780 | 0.39% | 548 | 0.27% | −33,648 | −16.73% | 201,107 |
| Madison | 13,835 | 69.57% | 5,698 | 28.65% | 269 | 1.35% | 0 | 0.00% | 85 | 0.43% | 8,137 | 40.92% | 19,887 |
| Mahoning | 59,903 | 50.26% | 57,641 | 48.36% | 966 | 0.81% | 436 | 0.37% | 244 | 0.20% | 2,262 | 1.90% | 119,190 |
| Marion | 19,023 | 68.25% | 8,269 | 29.67% | 414 | 1.49% | 112 | 0.40% | 53 | 0.19% | 10,754 | 38.58% | 27,871 |
| Medina | 64,598 | 60.92% | 39,800 | 37.53% | 1,144 | 1.08% | 266 | 0.25% | 233 | 0.22% | 24,798 | 23.39% | 106,041 |
| Meigs | 8,316 | 75.83% | 2,492 | 22.72% | 111 | 1.01% | 32 | 0.29% | 16 | 0.15% | 5,824 | 53.11% | 10,967 |
| Mercer | 19,452 | 81.79% | 4,030 | 16.94% | 204 | 0.86% | 67 | 0.28% | 31 | 0.13% | 15,422 | 64.85% | 23,784 |
| Miami | 41,371 | 71.23% | 15,663 | 26.97% | 782 | 1.35% | 0 | 0.00% | 261 | 0.45% | 25,708 | 44.26% | 58,077 |
| Monroe | 5,463 | 76.31% | 1,605 | 22.42% | 54 | 0.75% | 26 | 0.36% | 11 | 0.15% | 3,858 | 53.89% | 7,159 |
| Montgomery | 129,034 | 47.94% | 135,064 | 50.18% | 3,418 | 1.27% | 884 | 0.33% | 764 | 0.28% | −6,030 | −2.24% | 269,164 |
| Morgan | 5,041 | 73.53% | 1,725 | 25.16% | 64 | 0.93% | 0 | 0.00% | 26 | 0.38% | 3,316 | 48.37% | 6,856 |
| Morrow | 14,077 | 76.22% | 4,048 | 21.92% | 257 | 1.39% | 70 | 0.38% | 16 | 0.09% | 10,029 | 54.30% | 18,468 |
| Muskingum | 27,867 | 68.86% | 11,971 | 29.58% | 459 | 1.13% | 163 | 0.40% | 7 | 0.02% | 15,896 | 39.28% | 40,467 |
| Noble | 5,135 | 80.89% | 1,170 | 18.43% | 25 | 0.39% | 0 | 0.00% | 18 | 0.28% | 3,965 | 62.46% | 6,348 |
| Ottawa | 14,628 | 60.83% | 9,008 | 37.46% | 292 | 1.21% | 74 | 0.31% | 44 | 0.18% | 5,628 | 23.37% | 24,046 |
| Paulding | 7,086 | 74.72% | 2,213 | 23.33% | 124 | 1.31% | 38 | 0.40% | 23 | 0.24% | 4,873 | 51.39% | 9,484 |
| Perry | 12,357 | 74.10% | 4,098 | 24.57% | 170 | 1.02% | 47 | 0.28% | 4 | 0.02% | 8,259 | 49.53% | 16,676 |
| Pickaway | 20,593 | 72.73% | 7,304 | 25.80% | 295 | 1.04% | 0 | 0.00% | 122 | 0.43% | 13,289 | 46.93% | 28,314 |
| Pike | 9,157 | 73.70% | 3,110 | 25.03% | 123 | 0.99% | 0 | 0.00% | 34 | 0.27% | 6,047 | 48.67% | 12,424 |
| Portage | 45,990 | 55.39% | 35,661 | 42.95% | 906 | 1.09% | 295 | 0.36% | 170 | 0.20% | 10,329 | 12.44% | 83,022 |
| Preble | 17,022 | 77.94% | 4,493 | 20.57% | 243 | 1.11% | 0 | 0.00% | 82 | 0.38% | 12,529 | 57.37% | 21,840 |
| Putnam | 16,412 | 82.28% | 3,195 | 16.02% | 247 | 1.24% | 61 | 0.31% | 32 | 0.16% | 13,217 | 66.26% | 19,947 |
| Richland | 41,472 | 69.15% | 17,640 | 29.41% | 680 | 1.13% | 168 | 0.28% | 15 | 0.03% | 23,832 | 39.74% | 59,975 |
| Ross | 22,278 | 66.77% | 10,557 | 31.64% | 345 | 1.03% | 116 | 0.35% | 69 | 0.21% | 11,721 | 35.13% | 33,365 |
| Sandusky | 18,896 | 62.72% | 10,596 | 35.17% | 448 | 1.49% | 132 | 0.44% | 56 | 0.19% | 8,300 | 27.55% | 30,128 |
| Scioto | 22,609 | 70.54% | 9,080 | 28.33% | 262 | 0.82% | 91 | 0.28% | 9 | 0.03% | 13,529 | 42.21% | 32,051 |
| Seneca | 17,086 | 66.10% | 8,266 | 31.98% | 357 | 1.38% | 94 | 0.36% | 45 | 0.17% | 8,820 | 34.12% | 25,848 |
| Shelby | 20,422 | 80.74% | 4,465 | 17.65% | 290 | 1.15% | 71 | 0.28% | 45 | 0.18% | 15,957 | 63.09% | 25,293 |
| Stark | 111,097 | 58.44% | 75,904 | 39.93% | 2,163 | 1.14% | 683 | 0.36% | 246 | 0.13% | 35,193 | 18.51% | 190,093 |
| Summit | 124,833 | 44.38% | 151,668 | 53.92% | 3,003 | 1.07% | 888 | 0.32% | 888 | 0.26% | −26,835 | −9.54% | 281,280 |
| Trumbull | 55,194 | 54.57% | 44,519 | 44.01% | 913 | 0.90% | 356 | 0.35% | 170 | 0.17% | 10,675 | 10.56% | 101,152 |
| Tuscarawas | 30,458 | 69.09% | 12,889 | 29.24% | 494 | 1.12% | 161 | 0.37% | 85 | 0.19% | 17,569 | 39.85% | 44,087 |
| Union | 21,669 | 64.62% | 11,141 | 33.22% | 535 | 1.60% | 100 | 0.30% | 90 | 0.27% | 10,528 | 31.40% | 33,535 |
| Van Wert | 11,650 | 77.70% | 3,067 | 20.45% | 201 | 1.34% | 42 | 0.28% | 34 | 0.23% | 8,583 | 57.25% | 14,994 |
| Vinton | 4,632 | 76.71% | 1,331 | 22.04% | 47 | 0.78% | 17 | 0.28% | 11 | 0.18% | 3,301 | 54.67% | 6,038 |
| Warren | 87,988 | 64.49% | 46,069 | 33.76% | 1,747 | 1.28% | 0 | 0.00% | 637 | 0.47% | 41,919 | 30.73% | 136,441 |
| Washington | 22,307 | 69.53% | 9,243 | 28.81% | 372 | 1.16% | 109 | 0.34% | 50 | 0.16% | 13,064 | 40.72% | 32,081 |
| Wayne | 36,759 | 67.72% | 16,660 | 30.69% | 665 | 1.23% | 173 | 0.32% | 26 | 0.05% | 20,099 | 37.03% | 54,283 |
| Williams | 13,452 | 72.12% | 4,842 | 25.96% | 285 | 1.53% | 70 | 0.38% | 2 | 0.01% | 8,610 | 46.16% | 18,651 |
| Wood | 35,757 | 52.89% | 30,617 | 45.29% | 992 | 1.47% | 211 | 0.31% | 23 | 0.03% | 5,140 | 7.60% | 67,600 |
| Wyandot | 8,462 | 74.21% | 2,733 | 23.97% | 155 | 1.36% | 38 | 0.33% | 15 | 0.13% | 5,729 | 50.24% | 11,403 |
| Totals | 3,154,834 | 53.18% | 2,679,165 | 45.16% | 67,569 | 1.14% | 18,812 | 0.32% | 12,018 | 0.20% | 475,669 | 8.03% | 5,932,398 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Lorain (largest municipality: Lorain)
- Mahoning (largest municipality: Youngstown)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Montgomery (largest municipality: Dayton)
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 12 out of the 16 congressional districts in Ohio.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 50.9% | 47.7% | Steve Chabot |
| 2nd | 55.6% | 42.9% | Brad Wenstrup |
| 3rd | 28.4% | 70% | Joyce Beatty |
| 4th | 67.1% | 31.2% | Jim Jordan |
| 5th | 61.6% | 36.7% | Bob Latta |
| 6th | 72.2% | 26.5% | Bill Johnson |
| 7th | 65.3% | 33.2% | Bob Gibbs |
| 8th | 66% | 32.5% | Warren Davidson |
| 9th | 39.7% | 58.8% | Marcy Kaptur |
| 10th | 51.4% | 47% | Mike Turner |
| 11th | 19.2% | 79.8% | Marcia Fudge |
| 12th | 52.2% | 46.3% | Troy Balderson |
| 13th | 47.6% | 51% | Tim Ryan |
| 14th | 53.9% | 44.9% | David Joyce |
| 15th | 56.3% | 42.2% | Steve Stivers |
| 16th | 56.5% | 42.2% | Anthony Gonzalez |
Analysis
[edit]Ohio was considered one of the most competitive states in the Midwest in the early 21st century. For example, it was a vital tipping-point state in the heavily contested 2004 election, and its projection in 2012 put Barack Obama over the top in the Electoral College. After Trump won Ohio in 2016 by an unexpectedly large margin of 8 points, it was initially considered out of reach for Democrats. However, Democrats contested it after polling pointed to a possibly close result in 2020.
From 1964 through 2016, Ohio had been a reliable bellwether, voting for the winner of every presidential election. In 2016, however, it voted over ten points to the right of the nation as a whole, indicating that it might be on the cusp of losing its bellwether status.[93] And indeed, in 2020, Ohio backed the losing nominee for the first time since it backed Richard Nixon in 1960, and in doing so, it voted over ten points to the right of the nation overall for the second time in a row, giving Trump a comfortable eight-point margin even as he lost nationally. This indicated that Ohio is likely following a similar path to that of Missouri, another former bellwether state in the Midwest that has more recently become reliably red. (Missouri voted for the winning candidate in every election from 1904 to 2004 except for 1956. In 2008, Missouri narrowly backed Republican John McCain despite the fact that he lost the election by a wide margin nationally, and in every election since it has voted Republican by a comfortable margin.) In this election, Ohio weighed in at 12.5% more Republican than the nation as a whole, even voting more Republican than Texas, a Southern state that has been a GOP stronghold for four decades.
While Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton in the Midwest at large, Trump managed to flip two Ohio counties Republican: Lorain, a suburban county of Cleveland, and Mahoning, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown. Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Lorain County since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the first to win Mahoning County since Richard Nixon in 1972. Biden became the first Democrat since FDR in 1932[4] to win the White House without carrying Mahoning County and Trumbull County, and the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win the White House without carrying Lorain County. On the other hand, Biden flipped back Montgomery County, home to Dayton, into the Democratic column, a county which Trump had flipped in 2016. He also came within 7 points of flipping suburban Delaware County in the Columbus area, the closest a Democrat has come to flipping it since 1964.
Biden's results were an all time-best for Democrats in two counties - Franklin, home to the state capital of Columbus, where he received 64.68% of the vote and beat Trump by 31 points, and Hamilton, home to Cincinnati, where he received 57.15% of the vote and beat Trump by 16 points—even greater than Franklin D. Roosevelt's and Lyndon B. Johnson's landslides. Biden's Delaware County result of 45.69% was a 56-year best, and in Warren County of suburban Cincinnati, his result was a 44-year best. He also outperformed Obama's 2012 results in Butler (Cincinnati suburbs) and Greene (Dayton suburbs) counties.
However, in all other counties, Biden underperformed Barack Obama's 2008 and 2012 results and occasionally also John Kerry's 2004 results. For example, in Athens County, home to Ohio University, which has been one of the Democrats' strongest counties that Obama won by 35 points in both 2008 and 2012, Biden improved Clinton's result by 1.5 percent, but Trump reduced his 2016 losing margin from 17 points to 15 points and managed to win 40% of the county's vote, the first Republican to do so since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden underperformed Clinton in the Northeast and Lake Erie area, also in the most populous counties - in addition to losing Mahoning and Lorain counties, although in Cuyahoga County, home to Cleveland, he improved Clinton's 2016 result by 1 point, his 34-point winning margin was one point worse than Clinton's, six points down from Obama's 2012 40-point and only 0.36 percent better than Kerry's in 2004. In Lucas County, home to Toledo, he improved Clinton's result by 1.5 percent, but at a 1 percent worse margin at 16.73%, a 32-year low for Democrats after Michael Dukakis won it by under 9 points in 1988. While in Summit County, home to Akron, he improved on Clinton's result by 2.35 percent and the margin by 1 percent, at 9.5 percent it was still a far cry from Obama's 17-percent margin in 2008, and second-worst for Democrats since 1988. In Stark County, home to Canton, he improved on Clinton's result by 1.25 percent, but his 1.35% worse losing margin of 18.51 percent was a 36-year low for Democrats, after Walter Mondale lost it by 20.18 percent in 1984.
This was the first presidential election in which a candidate received more than 3 million votes in Ohio. Ohio is one of three states, the others being Iowa and Florida, that voted twice for Barack Obama and twice for Donald Trump. This ended Ohio's 14-election bellwether streak from 1964 to 2016.
Mahoning County
[edit]
| Trump: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | Biden: 40–50% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% ≥90% |
Mahoning County, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown, voted Republican for the first time since Richard Nixon's landslide re-election in 1972. The slim victory by Trump marked a collapse in Democrats' support among white working-class voters, and tightened the President's grip on blue-collar white voters.
David Betras, who was Democratic chairman of Mahoning County until 2019, speculated on the disconnect between Democrats in Washington who focused messaging Trump's unfitness for office, his taxes and possible impeachment, and the concerns of blue-collar workers were supporting Trump for his trade war with China, regardless of economic pain caused by tariffs.[94]
Voter demographics
[edit]| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | No Answer |
% of Voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | ||||
| Democrat | 92 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| Republican | 7 | 93 | N/A | 39 |
| Independent | 48 | 48 | 4 | 30 |
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 39 | 59 | 2 | 47 |
| Women | 51 | 48 | 1 | 53 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 39 | 60 | 1 | 84 |
| Black | 91 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| Latino | 57 | 39 | 4 | 3 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Other | 48 | 51 | 1 | 2 |
| Gender by race/ethnicity | ||||
| White men | 33 | 65 | 2 | 40 |
| White women | 44 | 55 | 1 | 44 |
| Black men | 86 | 11 | 3 | 4 |
| Black women | 93 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Latino men (of any race) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Latino women (of any race) | 60 | 39 | 1 | 2 |
| All other races | 50 | 49 | 1 | 2 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | 55 | 42 | 3 | 9 |
| 25–29 years old | 60 | 33 | 7 | 6 |
| 30–39 years old | 53 | 44 | 3 | 15 |
| 40–49 years old | 47 | 52 | 1 | 16 |
| 50–64 years old | 42 | 58 | N/A | 29 |
| 65 and older | 37 | 62 | 1 | 23 |
| Sexual orientation | ||||
| LGBT | 82 | 15 | 3 | 6 |
| Heterosexual | 42 | 57 | 1 | 94 |
| First time voter | ||||
| First time voter | 45 | 53 | 2 | 9 |
| Everyone else | 45 | 54 | 1 | 91 |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 35 | 64 | 1 | 23 |
| Some college education | 42 | 56 | 2 | 28 |
| Associate degree | 44 | 54 | 2 | 15 |
| Bachelor's degree | 50 | 48 | 2 | 21 |
| Advanced degree | 62 | 36 | 2 | 14 |
| Education by race/ethnicity | ||||
| White college graduates | 52 | 46 | 2 | 30 |
| White no college degree | 31 | 67 | 2 | 53 |
| Non-white college graduates | 78 | 21 | 1 | 4 |
| Non-white no college degree | 79 | 19 | 1 | 12 |
| Income | ||||
| Under $30,000 | 53 | 46 | 1 | 15 |
| $30,000–49,999 | 52 | 46 | 2 | 20 |
| $50,000–99,999 | 43 | 55 | 2 | 34 |
| $100,000–199,999 | 41 | 58 | 1 | 25 |
| Over $200,000 | 47 | 50 | 3 | 7 |
| Abortion should be | ||||
| Legal in all cases | 79 | 17 | 4 | 21 |
| Legal in most cases | 65 | 34 | 1 | 30 |
| Illegal in most cases | 13 | 86 | 1 | 30 |
| Illegal in all cases | 10 | 89 | 1 | 14 |
| Region | ||||
| Cleveland Area | 60 | 39 | 1 | 15 |
| North | 45 | 53 | 2 | 25 |
| West | 26 | 72 | 2 | 11 |
| Columbus Area | 54 | 45 | 1 | 18 |
| Cincinnati/Dayton Area | 47 | 52 | 1 | 21 |
| Ohio Valley | 28 | 71 | 1 | 11 |
| Source: CNN[95] | ||||
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Ohio
- 2020 Ohio elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ a b c d e "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ a b "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
- ^ "Other" and would not vote with no voters
- ^ "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
- ^ a b "Other" and would not vote with 1%
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ "Other and Undecided" with 8%
- ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Other candidates" with 6%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b c d e The poll below displays the results for voters who are sure how they will vote. This one incorporates the preferences of those who lean towards one of two candidates.
- ^ a b Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
- ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
- ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
- ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- ^ The Progressive Policy Institute endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- ^ Progress Ohio exclusively supports Democratic candidates
- ^ The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
References
[edit]- ^ "2020 Official Election Results". Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 8, 2020. Retrieved March 18, 2021.
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ a b "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
- ^ Merica, Dan (March 16, 2020). "Ohio governor recommends delaying Tuesday's primary until June amid coronavirus pandemic". CNN. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
- ^ "Judge rejects lawsuit to delay Ohio's primary election". WBNS-TV. March 16, 2020. Archived from the original on March 17, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
- ^ "Ohio health chief to order polls closed ahead of primary amid coronavirus". fox8.com. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
- ^ "Coronavirus: Ohio Supreme Court allows delay to primary election". The Columbus Dispatch. March 17, 2020. Archived from the original on June 19, 2020. Retrieved March 17, 2020.
- ^ "Ohio to run all-mail primary through April 28". Politico. March 25, 2020.
- ^ "Ohio Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
- ^ "2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS". Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original on June 9, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS". Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original on June 9, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ "Ohio 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
- ^ "2020 Ohio Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com.
- ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Ohio : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c d e f g "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
- ^ "Ohio: Trump 48%, Biden 45%". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ^ Canseco, Mario (November 2, 2020). "Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Set to Flip in U.S. Election". Research Co.
- ^ "Swayable". Archived from the original on November 13, 2020.
- ^ "Final Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin Civiqs polls confirm that Trump is in trouble in these red states". Daily Kos.
- ^ "Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll".
- ^ "TRF OH '20 Nov Poll Report.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ "Emerson Polling - Super Poll Sunday: Polling in the Midwest Shows Biden Ahead in Michigan and Tight Races In Ohio and Iowa". emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
- ^ a b c "2020 U.S. Election Tracker". Morning Consult Pro.
- ^ "AtlasIntel" (PDF).
- ^ "Ohio (October 28, 2020) | PDF | Presidency Of The United States | The United States". Scribd.
- ^ "Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll".
- ^ "Swayable". www.swayable.com.
- ^ "Wick Surveys". Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
- ^ "VoteByMail/VoteByMail-Ohio/Modeling/October/Ohio VBM Toplines 10_23_2020.pdf at master · GetCitizenData/VoteByMail · GitHub" (PDF). GitHub.
- ^ "Fox News" (PDF).
- ^ "Ohio: Biden 48%, Trump 46%". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ^ "Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll".
- ^ "Civiqs_RustBeltRising_banner_book_2020_10_OH.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ "Baldwin Wallace University" (PDF).
- ^ "Siena College/NYT Upshot" (PDF).
- ^ "TRF OH '20 Oct Poll Report.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ Salvanto, Anthony; Pinto, Jennifer De; Backus, Fred; Khanna, Kabir; Cox, Elena (October 5, 2020). "Trump and Biden even in Ohio, as Biden leads in Pennsylvania — Battleground Tracker poll - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com.
- ^ "Ohio: Policy Priorities and the Election - October Update". AAF.
- ^ "Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign" (PDF).
- ^ "Fox News" (PDF).
- ^ "Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll".
- ^ "Six weeks from election, new Great Lakes poll shows Ohio tossup". The Blade.
- ^ "Civiqs_RustBeltRising_banner_book_2020_09_OH.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ "Presidential Contest Tightens as Campaigns Move Into Eight-Week Home Stretch". Morning Consult Pro.
- ^ "Ohio: Policy Priorities and the Election". AAF.
- ^ "Ohio: Biden 49%, Trump 45%". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ^ "ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute" (PDF).
- ^ a b "Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States". Morning Consult Pro.
- ^ "Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising" (PDF).
- ^ "progressohio.org - progressohio Resources and Information" (PDF). Archived from the original on September 13, 2020.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ a b "Extensive New Battleground Polling Shows Biden Gaining Ground". Morning Consult.
- ^ "Google Drive: Sign-in". accounts.google.com.
- ^ "Zogby Analytics - The Zogby Poll®: Trump and Biden neck and neck in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania; Biden up by four percent in North Carolina; Trump winning big with 'swing voters'". zogbyanalytics.com.
- ^ Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/AGPAC Archived July 22, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "New Poll Puts Biden Up Over Trump in Ohio, Coronavirus and the Economy Are Top Issues". Ideastream Public Media. August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll".
- ^ "Fox News" (PDF).
- ^ "Emerson Polling - Ohio, Texas, and California 2020: Trump with Narrow Leads in Ohio and Texas, but has Widespread Expectation of Being Re-elected". emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
- ^ "Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University" (PDF).
- ^ a b "Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes" (PDF).
- ^ "Change Research" (PDF).
- ^ a b "NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d e f "Public Policy Polling" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Climate Nexus" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d "Emerson College". Archived from the original on October 3, 2019. Retrieved October 4, 2019.
- ^ a b c d e f "Quinnipiac University". Archived from the original on July 30, 2019.
- ^ a b c d Seth A. Richardson, cleveland com (November 30, 2018). "Think Sherrod Brown should run for president? You might like this 2020 poll". cleveland.
- ^ a b "Emerson College".
- ^ "Zogby Analytics - The Zogby Poll: Trump approval/Trump Vs. Warren in 11 states". zogbyanalytics.com.
- ^ Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University
- ^ "Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University" (PDF).
- ^ "Ohio Northern University".
- ^ a b "Baldwin Wallace University" (PDF).
- ^ a b Rich Exner, cleveland com (March 19, 2018). "Donald Trump would easily beat John Kasich in rematch of Ohio Republican primary: Baldwin Wallace survey". cleveland.
- ^ "2020 Official Elections Results". Ohio Secretary of State. November 2020. Archived from the original on January 6, 2021. Retrieved March 16, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Official Elections Results".
- ^ Grabar, Henry (November 13, 2018). "Democrats Proved They Can Win Again in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Why Not Ohio?". Slate Magazine. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- ^ Gabriel, Trip (May 20, 2019). "There's No Boom in Youngstown, but Blue-Collar Workers Are Sticking With Trump (Published 2019)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
- ^ "Ohio 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Archived from the original on June 23, 2023. Retrieved October 29, 2023.
Further reading
[edit]- David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", The New York Times. (Describes bellwether Wood County, Ohio)
- "Ohio, bellwether again: A close race in Ohio is bad news for Donald Trump", Economist.com, October 10, 2020
- David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (October 11, 2020), "The seven political states of Ohio", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on October 12, 2020
External links
[edit]- Elections & Voting Archived July 26, 2017, at the Wayback Machine at the Ohio Secretary of State official website
- Ohio at Ballotpedia
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Ohio", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Ohio: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Ohio". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
