President-elect Donald Trump’s friendly oil policies could boost U.S. crude production beyond the currently estimated growth.
However, Trump’s vow to “drill, baby, drill” and the promised deregulation in the oil and gas industry with faster permitting could hit a wall of continuously growing global supply. This higher production from non-OPEC+ producers is set to tilt the market into a large surplus in 2025, even if OPEC+ keeps its current commitment to begin bringing back supply from April, analysts and forecasters say.
1. EVs level off
2. More population again
3. Emerging markets boom
4. America and Europe boom
5. China recovers
6. Africa booms
Air Travel, marine fuels, and lubricants all grow. Gasoline, too, in most markets, if not all.
You are wrong.
ML
1- US oil production including shale oil peaked in 2023 and started declining in 2024 according to the EIA with its rate of decline expected to accelerate immediately after.
2- The IEA's projection of a supply surplus of up to 1.0 million barrels a day (mbd) in 2025 is based on flawed assumption and is also politically- motivated. like most of its previous projections. Other than the peaking of US production, Brazil's production could hardly satisfy its domestic demand.
3- Any request by Trump to OPEC+ to raise production will be rebuffed during his second presidency exactly as during his first's. OPEC+ won't budge even by an iota on its production cuts until Brent crude rises above $85 a barrel.
4- China is aiming for an ambitious 7% economic growth in 2025 having already achieved this rate in the last quarter of 2024, This means that it crude oil imports will surge much further than in 2024.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert