Polling from early May was used to create these maps. To see the latest polls visit our polling page.
If today’s general election polling holds true, Hillary Clinton will easily defeat Donald Trump.
Clinton
Trump
347
191
Electoral
votes
Clinton
Trump
347
191
Electoral
votes
Current national and battleground state polls have Mr. Trump trailing Mrs. Clinton by about 10 percentage points should they face off in the general election.
If those numbers hold, Mrs. Clinton would take all of the states that President Obama won in 2012, as well as North Carolina (which he won in 2008), putting her far over the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Mrs. Clinton currently fares worse than Mr. Obama only in New York, a state that she would win easily according to current polling.
This is how the map would look if Mr. Trump improved on his polling margin by five percentage points in each state.
Clinton
Trump
285
253
Electoral
votes
Ohio
18
N.C.
15
Fla.
29
Clinton
Trump
285
253
Electoral
votes
Ohio
N.C.
Fla.
He would win Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but he would still lose the election.
Mr. Trump could win if he improves on his polling margin by 10 percentage points.
Clinton
Trump
233
305
Electoral
votes
N.H.
4
Penn.
Iowa
20
6
Ohio
18
Colo.
Va.
9
13
N.C.
15
Fla.
29
Clinton
Trump
233
305
Electoral
votes
N.H.
Penn.
Iowa
Ohio
Colo.
Va.
N.C.
Fla.
In that scenario, Mr. Trump would win five additional battleground states that Mitt Romney lost in 2012, a big swing in the electoral map that would leave him with roughly 30 electoral votes to spare.
Closing large polling gaps in the time remaining is rare but certainly not unprecedented.
In 1980, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan in many polls this time of year. He went on to lose by 10 points.
