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Journal articleLim A, Shearer FM, Sewalk K, et al., 2025,
The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever
, Nature Communications, Vol: 16Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats.
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Journal articleAl-Kaisy R, Bhatt S, Duchêne DA, 2025,
Distinct evolutionary regimes across domains of the Plasmodium falciparum CSP gene
, Scientific Reports, Vol: 15Malaria disease caused by parasites of genus Plasmodium places an enormous disease burden across tropical regions of the world. The circumsporozoite protein (CSP) of Plasmodium has several key functions in binding and accessing host cells, with functions subdivided across multiple protein regions. While its key roles during infection make the gene a primary target for malaria vaccine development, the evolutionary dynamics that could affect the forecasting of useful strains remain poorly understood. We tested whether the gene undergoes multiple DNA substitution processes and whether these are divided across gene regions using a phylogenetic mixture model, and a global sample of CSP sequences specific to P. falciparum. These analyses reveal evolutionary processes unique to the central repeat region and the C-terminus. The central repeat region is dominated by synonymous substitutions (putatively neutral) and heavy C-T substitution bias, while the C-terminus undergoes mostly non-synonymous changes. These evolutionary processes are not strongly geographically restricted, and lineages from Africa and Asia where the parasite is most abundant appear to drive evolution across all CSP gene regions. We propose that insights about DNA substitution processes can help forecast the variants of importance to vaccine development, aided by state-of-the-art evolutionary modelling.
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Journal articleMonerie PA, Feng X, Hodges K, et al., 2025,
High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4
, Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 8The UK Met Office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 shows skill in predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC track density over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the decadal timescale (up to ACC = 0.93 and ACC = 0.83, respectively, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient—ACC). The high skill in predicting the number of TCs is related to the simulation of the externally forced response, with internal climate variability also allowing the improvement in prediction skill. The Skill is due to the model’s ability to predict the temporal evolution of surface temperature and vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. We apply a signal-to-noise calibration framework and show that DePreSys4 predicts an increase in the number of TCs over the eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the next decade (2023–2030), potentially leading to high economic losses.
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Journal articleAhmed AN, Fornace KM, Iwamura T, et al., 2025,
Human animal contact, land use change and zoonotic disease risk: a protocol for systematic review
, Systematic Reviews, Vol: 14Background: Zoonotic diseases pose a significant risk to human health globally. The interrelationship between humans, animals, and the environment plays a key role in the transmission of zoonotic infections. Human-animal contact (HAC) is particularly important in this relationship, where it serves as the pivotal interaction for pathogen spillover to occur from an animal reservoir to a human. In the context of disease emergence linked to land-use change, increased HAC as a result of land changes (e.g., deforestation, agricultural expansion, habitat degradation) is frequently cited as a key mechanism. We propose to conduct a systematic literature review to map and assess the quality of current evidence linking changes in HAC to zoonotic disease emergence as a result of land-use change. Method: We developed a search protocol to be conducted in eight (8) databases: Medline, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science, Scopus, AGRIS, Africa-Wide Info, and Global Index Medicus. The review will follow standard systematic review methods and will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. The search will consist of building a search strategy, database search, and a snowballing search of references from retrieved relevant articles. The search strategy will be developed for Medline (through PubMed) and EMBASE databases. The search strategy will then be applied to all eight (8) databases. Retrieved articles will be exported to EndNote 20 where duplicates will be removed and exported to Rayyan®, to screen papers using their title and abstract. Screening will be conducted by two independent reviewers and data extraction will be performed using a data extraction form. Articles retrieved will be assessed using study quality appraisal tools (OHAT-Office for Health Assessment and Technology Risk of Bias Rating Tool for Human and Animal Studies, CCS-Case Control Studies, OCCSS-Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectio
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Journal articlePayne DS, Swisdak M, Eastwood JP, et al., 2025,
In-situ observations of the magnetothermodynamic evolution of electron-only reconnection
, Communications Physics, Vol: 8Field-particle energy exchange is important to the magnetic reconnection process, but uncertainties regarding the time evolution of this exchange remain. We investigate the temporal dynamics of field-particle energy exchange during magnetic reconnection, using Magnetospheric Multiscale mission observations of an electron-only reconnection event in the magnetosheath. The electron energy is in local minimum at the x-line due to a density depletion, while the magnetic energy is in local maximum due to a guide field enhancement. The electromagnetic energy transport comes almost entirely from guide field contributions and is confined within the reconnection plane, while the most significant contribution to electron energy transport is independent of the drift velocity with additional out-of-plane signatures. Multi-spacecraft analysis suggests that the guide field energy is decreasing while the electron density is increasing, both evolving such that the system is moving toward a more uniform distribution of magnetic and thermal energy.
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Journal articleLiu M, Prentice IC, Menviel L, et al., 2025,
Correction to: Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks (Communications Earth & Environment, (2022), 3, 1, (196), 10.1038/s43247-022-00536-0)
, Communications Earth and Environment, Vol: 6Correction to:Communications Earth & Environmenthttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00536-0, published online 30 August 2022 In the version of this article originally published, three estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from different sources were used to convert feedback strength into the unitless measure – gain – on the assumption that these were independent. In fact, these were not independent, and so combining them yields a too-narrow uncertainty range. The authors decided to only use the “very likely” (instead of “likely”) range from IPCC WG1 AR6 and treat it as a 90% confidence interval. Additionally, the gain is not normally distributed but is highly asymmetric, as it is the negative of the ratio of two approximately normally distributed variables, feedback strength (c) and the net feedback parameter (α<inf>net</inf>), with a non-zero centre. There is no standard way to derive confidence intervals from standard error for such a variable. Therefore, in the correct version, only the standard error of the gain is provided, instead of giving confidence intervals. Besides, since calculating standard error by the error propagation rule requires the input variables to be at least approximately normally distributed, the gain was calculated directly from the net feedback parameter (α<inf>net</inf>, which is assumed to be normally distributed) corresponding to ECS (which is not normally distributed). The changes implemented have no impact on the calculated feedback strengths, but they do have an impact on the estimated gains. Since confidence intervals are no longer provided for the gains, the comparison is focused on the feedback strengths. The authors would like to thank Dr. B. B. Cael from the National Oceanography Centre for bringing this issue to their attention with advice about the choice of ECS and how the very likely range should be interpreted into confidence int
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Journal articleLi X, Buytaert W, Tang Q, et al., 2025,
Hydrological impact of small hydropower development on mountain rivers in Southwest China and the role of environmental flows
, Journal of Hydrology, Vol: 657, ISSN: 0022-1694Small- and medium-sized mountain rivers are often the locations of small hydropower plants (SHPs), which bring electricity to remote mountainous areas but also cause a range of environmental and ecological impacts. Alterations in hydrological regimes are the most direct impact of SHPs, which in turn triggers changes in physical, chemical, and biological conditions. Environmental agencies of many countries have taken measures to mitigate hydrological changes in these rivers, including requiring SHPs to release environmental flows. However, it remains unclear how effective these measures are in compensating for hydrological changes. In this study, we examined hydrological alterations in seven small mountain river basins in the Yangtze River using a combination of numerical simulation and statistical analysis. A framework was presented and applied to assess the impacts of SHPs and the effects of environmental flows. A total of 32 hydrological indicators were selected and calculated based on measured and modeled hydrological data, and the changes in these indicators were assessed using three indexes. The values of extreme and dynamic water conditions indicators were significantly changed after the SHPs were fully developed. Five indicators, including the number of low pulses, the number of high pulses, the duration of low pulses, the daily rise rate, and the number of flow reversals, were identified as the most unfavorable indicators. A constant environmental flow release of 10% of the long-term average flow, which is the current policy, had a limited impact on mitigating adverse hydrological changes. We therefore suggest the development of an environmental flow regime that better mimics natural flow variability, but not just based on a constant release threshold in small hydropower-developed rivers.
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Journal articleAlmalki YR, Swan C, Karmpadakis I, 2025,
Experimental investigation of pile-supported Oscillating Water Column devices
, Renewable Energy, Vol: 248, ISSN: 0960-1481The present study investigates the impact of key geometric parameters in the design of an Oscillating Water Column (OWC) integrated into a pile-supported breakwater. This is achieved through an extensive experimental campaign and a systematic investigation of key device parameters. Specifically, the present study examines the pneumatic efficiency of the OWC, the geometric characteristics of both the OWC and the breakwater, as well as the position of the OWC within the breakwater. The effect of these device characteristics on the performance of the OWC is assessed by considering monochromatic waves of varying steepness and effective water depths. The performance of the OWC is evaluated in terms of its wave transmission and reflection coefficients, as well as its energy generation efficiency. In turn, these are quantified using arrays of collocated sensors and high-speed imaging. Taken together, the parametric study provides physical insights into the effect of key device parameters on the efficiency of the OWC. Once optimal configurations are employed, the power output of the device is shown to increase by up to 164%, while wave transmission is reduced by 55%, compared to the initial design configuration. These results offer a valuable perspective for the development of more efficient wave energy converters.
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Journal articleYang Y, Toumi R, 2025,
Large dynamic contributions to tropical cyclone precipitation with increasing sea surface temperature
, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 20, Pages: 074013-074013<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Understanding the relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic factors to tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important challenge. This study examines the response of TC precipitation due to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) using convection-permitting model simulations. The sensitivity of key TC rainfall metrics, including the azimuthally averaged maximum precipitation rate were examined. The amount of scaling of precipitation with SST depends on the chosen TC precipitation metric and mostly surpasses the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relationship. The azimuthally averaged maximum precipitation rate (Pm) exceeds twice the rate expected under the CC relationship (2CC). By decomposing the scaling rates into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions using a physical diagnostic method, we demonstrate that dynamic changes primarily (about 73%) drive the scaling of Pm. The available moisture plays a much smaller role than expected and scales surprisingly at less than CC. The dynamic contribution is always large for all precipitation metrics. The combination of increased moisture and updrafts enhances moisture convergence, thereby intensifying precipitation and ultimately leading to a super-CC relationship. The ‘exceeding 2CC’ behavior is attributed to the dominance of dynamic effects, particularly enhanced upward motion near the TC inner core. Accurate projections of future changes in TC precipitation therefore depend critically on accurate projections of changes in TC dynamics.</jats:p>
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Journal articleTlhomole J, Alosairi Y, Hughes G, et al., 2025,
Measuring marine hydrodynamics from space using planet satellite imagery
, Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol: 324, ISSN: 0034-4257The inference of coastal ocean dynamics from consecutive remote sensing images plays a central role in a diverse range of domains such as marine conservation, spatial planning, as well as flood risk. We present a methodology for systematically identifying spatially overlapping image pairs from the PlanetScope archive, with order minute scale time lags and the potential for velocity field inference using classical algorithms. This ability is demonstrated through the novel estimation of submesoscale eddies from PlanetScope image pairs in a range of contexts, providing a key novelty in this paper. These include sea ice floes in the Siberian Sea of Okhotsk, a cyanobacterial bloom in the Baltic Sea, and suspended sediment in the Port of Al-Fao located in the Arabian/Persian Gulf. Additionally, comparison of the latter with coinciding velocity fields from a Delft3D Flexible Mesh (FM) numerical model simulation shows good quantitative agreement in regions with high suspended sediment concentration. We successfully develop a workflow pipeline for identifying and processing image pairs from these opportunistic overlaps, unlocking a new large-scale source of coastal ocean surface velocity data to be used alongside modelling frameworks.
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