This repo contains my Notebook that covers steps to build simple expected goals (xG) model and expected goals-on-target (xGOT) model.
First, I built a simple model with only 2 features that are angle and distance of the shot. Then, I built the 2nd model with more features that are:
- Shot types of play (penalty, free kick)
- Body part (header, preferable side)
- Is under pressure?
- Shot technique
I also identified which team is the biggest overachiever and underachiever.
I built the xGOT model with just simple features that are the distances of the end shot to the center of goal. I also visualized players to see how their xG and xGOT correlated to each other, made us know which player has better chances and which player has better shot placing ability.
I wrote two articles regarding this project