Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020)
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Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union Glossary of terms |
Following the referendum in the United Kingdom on its membership of the European Union on 23 June 2016, polling companies continued to use standard questions in order to gauge public opinion on the country's relationship with the EU. Opinion polling overall showed an initial fall in support for Brexit from the referendum to late 2016, when responses were split evenly between support and opposition. Support rose again to a plurality, which held until the 2017 general election. Since then, opinion polls tended to show a plurality of support for remaining in the EU or for the view that Brexit was a mistake, with the estimated margin increasing until a small decrease in 2019 (to 53% Remain : 47% Leave, as of October 2019[update]).[1] This seems to be largely due to a preference for remaining in the EU among those who did not vote in 2016's referendum (an estimated 2.5 million of whom, as of October 2019[update], were too young to vote at the time).[2][3] Other reasons suggested include slightly more Leave voters than Remain voters (14% and 12% of each, respectively, as of October 2019[update])[4] changing how they would vote (particularly in Labour areas) and the deaths of older voters,[1] most of whom voted to leave the EU.
Right/wrong
[edit]
Right
Wrong
Neither
Following the EU referendum, there have been numerous opinion polls on the question of whether the UK was 'right' or 'wrong' to vote to leave the EU. The results of these polls are shown in the table below.
| Date(s) conducted | Right | Wrong | Undecided | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4–5 Aug 2020 | 39% | 49% | 12% | 10% | 1,606 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 30–31 Jul 2020 | 41% | 47% | 13% | 6% | 1,623 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 22–23 Jul 2020 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | 1,648 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 11–12 Jun 2020 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | 1,693 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 29–30 May 2020 | 42% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 1,650 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18–19 May 2020 | 43% | 45% | 13% | 2% | 1,718 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 16–17 Apr 2020 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 2,015 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 24–26 Mar 2020 | 48% | 40% | 12% | 8% | 1,010 | Number Cruncher Politics | Online | |||
| 9–10 Feb 2020 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 1,694 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 31 Jan – 2 Feb 2020 | 43% | 46% | 12% | 3% | 1,575 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 31 Jan 2020 | The UK leaves the EU and begins the Brexit transition period. | |||||||||
| 30–31 Jan 2020 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | 1,015 | Survation | Online | |||
| 24–26 Jan 2020 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | 1,628 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 12 Dec 2019 | 2019 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||
| 8–10 Dec 2019 | 44% | 46% | 10% | 2% | 1,009 | Number Cruncher Politics | Online | |||
| 11–12 Nov 2019 | 41% | 47% | 11% | 6% | 1,619 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 5–6 Nov 2019 | 40% | 49% | 11% | 9% | 1,667 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 22–23 Oct 2019 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | 1,640 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 20–21 Oct 2019 | 41% | 47% | 11% | 6% | 1,689 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 17–18 Oct 2019 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1,609 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 17 Oct 2019 | EU and UK negotiators agree a new withdrawal agreement.[5] | |||||||||
| 14–15 Oct 2019 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | 1,625 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 8–9 Oct 2019 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | 1,616 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 30 Sep – 1 Oct 2019 | 40% | 49% | 11% | 9% | 1,623 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 2–3 Sep 2019 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | 1,639 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 28–29 Aug 2019 | 40% | 50% | 10% | 10% | 1,867 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 27–28 Aug 2019 | 41% | 47% | 13% | 6% | 2,006 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 22–23 Aug 2019 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | 2,019 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 13–14 Aug 2019 | 42% | 46% | 11% | 4% | 1,625 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 5–6 Aug 2019 | 41% | 47% | 13% | 6% | 1,628 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 29–30 Jul 2019 | 41% | 49% | 11% | 8% | 2,066 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 24 July 2019 | Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as Prime Minister | |||||||||
| 16–17 Jul 2019 | 40% | 47% | 12% | 7% | 1,749 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 2–3 Jul 2019 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | 1,605 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 9–10 Jun 2019 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | 1,702 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 5–6 Jun 2019 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | 1,670 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 28–29 May 2019 | 41% | 46% | 13% | 5% | 1,763 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 23 May 2019 | 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom | |||||||||
| 10–11 Apr 2019 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | 1,843 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 2–3 Apr 2019 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | 1,771 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 31 Mar – 1 Apr 2019 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | 2,098 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 29 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the third time. | |||||||||
| 24–25 Mar 2019 | 41% | 48% | 12% | 7% | 2,110 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 14–15 Mar 2019 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | 1,823 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 12 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the second time. | |||||||||
| 7–8 Mar 2019 | 40% | 48% | 12% | 8% | 1,787 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 6–7 Mar 2019 | 40% | 49% | 11% | 9% | 1,800 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 22–23 Feb 2019 | 40% | 48% | 13% | 8% | 1,672 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 3–4 Feb 2019 | 39% | 48% | 13% | 9% | 1,851 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 30–31 Jan 2019 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | 1,650 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18 Jan 2019 | 41% | 43% | 16% | 2% | 1,021 | Sky Data | Online | |||
| 16 Jan 2019 | 40% | 50% | 10% | 10% | 1,070 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 15 Jan 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the first time.[6] | |||||||||
| 13–14 Jan 2019 | 40% | 48% | 12% | 8% | 1,701 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 7–8 Jan 2019 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | 1,754 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 6–7 Jan 2019 | 39% | 48% | 12% | 9% | 1,656 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 21 Dec 2018 – 4 Jan 2019 | 40% | 48% | 12% | 8% | 25,537 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18–19 Dec 2018 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | 1,675 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 12–14 Dec 2018 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | 5,043 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 3–4 Dec 2018 | 38% | 49% | 13% | 11% | 1,624 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 9–30 Nov 2018 | Ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest to the government's proposed withdrawal agreement (or to plans preceding it).[7] | |||||||||
| 26–27 Nov 2018 | 42% | 48% | 11% | 6% | 1,737 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 19–20 Nov 2018 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | 1,647 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 15 Nov 2018 | 40% | 47% | 12% | 7% | 1,311 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 14 Nov 2018 | The UK Cabinet approves a new draft withdrawal agreement.[8] | |||||||||
| 4–5 Nov 2018 | 41% | 45% | 14% | 4% | 1,637 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 22–23 Oct 2018 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | 1,802 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18–19 Oct 2018 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | 2,158 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 14–15 Oct 2018 | 42% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 1,649 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 10–11 Oct 2018 | 41% | 46% | 13% | 5% | 1,800 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 8–9 Oct 2018 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | 1,647 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 3–4 Oct 2018 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1,746 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 30 Sep-1 Oct 2018 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | 1,607 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 21–22 Sep 2018 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1,643 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18–19 Sep 2018 | 40% | 47% | 12% | 7% | 2,509 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 12–13 Sep 2018 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1,620 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 4–5 Sep 2018 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | 1,628 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 3–4 Sep 2018 | 42% | 48% | 11% | 6% | 1,883 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 28–29 Aug 2018 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | 1,664 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 20–21 Aug 2018 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | 1,697 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 13–14 Aug 2018 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 1,660 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 9–13 Aug 2018 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | 1,036 | Number Cruncher Politics | Online | |||
| 8–9 Aug 2018 | 42% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 1,675 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 22–23 Jul 2018 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1,650 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 16–17 Jul 2018 | 42% | 47% | 12% | 5% | 1,657 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 10–11 Jul 2018 | 41% | 46% | 12% | 5% | 1,732 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 8–9 Jul 2018 | Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign.[9] | |||||||||
| 8–9 Jul 2018 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1,669 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 6 Jul 2018 | The UK Cabinet agrees the Chequers statement, setting out a proposal on the future UK–EU relationship.[10] | |||||||||
| 3–4 Jul 2018 | 41% | 46% | 13% | 5% | 1,641 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 25–26 Jun 2018 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | 1,645 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 19–20 Jun 2018 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,663 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18–19 Jun 2018 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 1,606 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 11–12 Jun 2018 | 43% | 46% | 12% | 3% | 1,638 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 4–5 Jun 2018 | 44% | 44% | 13% | 0% | 1,619 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 28–29 May 2018 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | 1,670 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 20–21 May 2018 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 1,660 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 13–14 May 2018 | 44% | 45% | 12% | 1% | 1,634 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 8–9 May 2018 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 1,648 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 30 Apr-1 May 2018 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | 1,585 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 24–25 Apr 2018 | 42% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 1,668 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 16–17 Apr 2018 | 42% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 1,631 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 9–10 Apr 2018 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1,639 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 26–27 Mar 2018 | 42% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 1,659 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 16–23 Mar 2018 | 44% | 48% | 7% | 4% | 1,616 | Sky Data | Online | |||
| 5–6 Mar 2018 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 1,641 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 2 Mar 2018 | Theresa May makes Mansion House speech, outlining the UK Government's policy on the future UK–EU relationship.[11] | |||||||||
| 26–27 Feb 2018 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,622 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 19–20 Feb 2018 | 42% | 45% | 12% | 3% | 1,650 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 12–13 Feb 2018 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1,639 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 5–6 Feb 2018 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 2,000 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 28–29 Jan 2018 | 40% | 46% | 14% | 6% | 1,669 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 16–17 Jan 2018 | 45% | 44% | 12% | 1% | 1,672 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 7–8 Jan 2018 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 1,663 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 19–20 Dec 2017 | 42% | 45% | 12% | 3% | 1,610 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 15 Dec 2017 | The European Council decides to proceed to the second phase of the Brexit negotiations.[12] | |||||||||
| 10–11 Dec 2017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,680 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 4–5 Dec 2017 | 42% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 1,638 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 26–28 Nov 2017 | 42% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 3,282 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 7–8 Nov 2017 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% | 2,012 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 23–24 Oct 2017 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 1,637 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 19–20 Oct 2017 | 42% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 1,603 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18–19 Oct 2017 | 42% | 45% | 14% | 3% | 1,648 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 10–11 Oct 2017 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | 1,680 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 22–24 Sep 2017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,716 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 22 Sep 2017 | Theresa May makes Florence speech, in an attempt to 'unblock' the Brexit negotiations.[13] | |||||||||
| 30–31 Aug 2017 | 44% | 44% | 12% | 0% | 1,658 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 21–22 Aug 2017 | 43% | 45% | 11% | 2% | 1,664 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 31 Jul-1 Aug 2017 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 1,665 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18–19 Jul 2017 | 43% | 43% | 14% | 0% | 1,593 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 10–11 Jul 2017 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 1,700 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 21–22 Jun 2017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,670 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 19 Jun 2017 | Brexit negotiations begin.[14] | |||||||||
| 12–13 Jun 2017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,651 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 8 Jun 2017 | 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||
| 5–7 Jun 2017 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 2,130 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 30–31 May 2017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,875 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 24–25 May 2017 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 2,052 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 16–17 May 2017 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1,861 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 3–14 May 2017 | 45% | 41% | 14% | 4% | 1,952 | GfK | Online | |||
| 9–10 May 2017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,651 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 2–3 May 2017 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 2,066 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 25–26 Apr 2017 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 1,590 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 20–21 Apr 2017 | 44% | 44% | 12% | 0% | 1,590 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18–19 Apr 2017 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1,727 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 12–13 Apr 2017 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 2,069 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 5–6 Apr 2017 | 46% | 42% | 11% | 4% | 1,651 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 29 Mar 2017 | The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.[15] | |||||||||
| 26–27 Mar 2017 | 44% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 1,957 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 20–21 Mar 2017 | 44% | 44% | 12% | 0% | 1,627 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 1–15 Mar 2017 | 46% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 1,938 | GfK | Online | |||
| 13–14 Mar 2017 | 44% | 42% | 15% | 2% | 1,631 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 10–14 Mar 2017 | 49% | 41% | 10% | 8% | 2,003 | Opinium | Online | |||
| 27–28 Feb 2017 | 45% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 1,666 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 21–22 Feb 2017 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 2,060 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 12–13 Feb 2017 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 2,052 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 30–31 Jan 2017 | 45% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1,705 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 17–18 Jan 2017 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1,654 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 17 Jan 2017 | Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.[16] | |||||||||
| 9–12 Jan 2017 | 52% | 39% | 9% | 13% | 2,005 | Opinium | Online | |||
| 9–10 Jan 2017 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1,660 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 3–4 Jan 2017 | 45% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 1,740 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 18–19 Dec 2016 | 44% | 44% | 12% | 0% | 1,595 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 4–5 Dec 2016 | 44% | 42% | 14% | 2% | 1,667 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 28–29 Nov 2016 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,624 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 14–15 Nov 2016 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1,717 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 19–20 Oct 2016 | 45% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 1,608 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 11–12 Oct 2016 | 45% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 1,669 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 2 Oct 2016 | Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.[17] | |||||||||
| 13–14 Sep 2016 | 46% | 44% | 10% | 2% | 1,732 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 30–31 Aug 2016 | 47% | 44% | 9% | 3% | 1,687 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 22–23 Aug 2016 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 1,660 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 16–17 Aug 2016 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1,677 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 8–9 Aug 2016 | 45% | 44% | 12% | 1% | 1,692 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 1–2 Aug 2016 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1,722 | YouGov | Online | |||
| 13 Jul 2016 | Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.[18] | |||||||||
Selective polling
[edit]| Date(s) conducted | Right | Wrong | Undecided | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb – 1 Mar 2019 | 22% | 70% | 8% | 48% | 5,004 | YouGov | Online | Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands |
| 5–8 Jul 2018 | 76% | 21% | 2% | 55% | 966 | YouGov | Online | Conservative Party members |
Remain/leave
[edit]
With "Neither" responses
Normalised
Opinion polling (since the 2016 referendum) on whether the UK should leave or remain in the EU
Leave
Remain
There have also been polls to gauge support for remaining in or leaving the EU. The following polls, unless the notes state otherwise, asked how respondents would vote in a second referendum.
| Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Neither | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–21 Oct 2019 | 55% | 45% | — | 10% | 2,017 | Deltapoll | Online | "Neither" removed |
| 17 Oct 2019 | EU and UK negotiators agree a new withdrawal agreement.[19] | |||||||
| 2–14 Oct 2019 | 32% | 54% | 14% | 22% | 26,000 | ComRes | [note 1][note 2] | |
| 9–11 Oct 2019 | 51% | 45% | 3% | 6% | 1,622 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 25 Sep 2019 | 51% | 45% | 4% | 6% | 821 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 5–9 Sep 2019 | 37% | 34% | 29% | 3% | 1,144 | Kantar | Online | |
| 5–7 Sep 2019 | 46% | 40% | 14% | 6% | 2,049 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 5–6 Sep 2019 | 52% | 45% | 3% | 7% | 864 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 5–6 Sep 2019 | 50% | 44% | 6% | 6% | 809 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 3–4 Sep 2019 | 46% | 43% | 12% | 3% | 1,533 | YouGov | Online | |
| 29–31 Aug 2019 | 46% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 2,028 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 29–30 Aug 2019 | 51% | 46% | 3% | 6% | 861 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 15–19 Aug 2019 | 36% | 35% | 29% | 1% | 1,133 | Kantar | Online | |
| 14–15 Aug 2019 | 45% | 40% | 15% | 5% | 1,696 | YouGov | Online | |
| 6–11 Aug 2019 | 52% | 43% | 5% | 9% | 1,658 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 28–29 Jul 2019 | 46% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 1,652 | YouGov | Online | |
| 25–27 Jul 2019 | 45% | 41% | 13% | 4% | 2,001 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 24 Jul 2019 | Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as Prime Minister | |||||||
| 19–20 Jun 2019 | 51% | 44% | 5% | 7% | 1,658 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 4–7 Jun 2019 | 48% | 44% | 8% | 4% | 1,345 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 23 May 2019 | 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom | |||||||
| 22 May 2019 | 47% | 48% | 5% | 1% | 1,596 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 14–21 May 2019 | 52% | 45% | 3% | 7% | 1,619 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 17 May 2019 | 49% | 47% | 4% | 2% | 797 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 12–13 May 2019 | 44% | 42% | 14% | 2% | 2,131 | YouGov | Online | |
| 9–13 May 2019 | 42% | 33% | 24% | 9% | 1,152 | Kantar | Online | |
| 7–10 May 2019 | 52% | 41% | 7% | 11% | 1,393 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 30 Apr – 1 May 2019 | 44% | 40% | 15% | 4% | 1,867 | YouGov | Online | |
| 18–24 Apr 2019 | 51% | 45% | 4% | 5% | 1,620 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 16 Apr 2019 | 52% | 38% | 10% | 14% | 1,061 | ComRes | Online | |
| 4–8 Apr 2019 | 41% | 35% | 24% | 5% | 1,172 | Kantar | Online | |
| 2–5 Apr 2019 | 51% | 42% | 8% | 9% | 1,338 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 28–30 Mar 2019 | 54% | 46% | — | 8% | 1,010 | Deltapoll | Online | "Neither" removed |
| 29 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the third time. | |||||||
| 19 Mar 2019 | 46% | 41% | 14% | 5% | 2,084 | YouGov | Online | |
| 15–17 Mar 2019 | 45% | 39% | 16% | 6% | 2,033 | ComRes | Online | |
| 15 Mar 2019 | 51% | 45% | 5% | 6% | 831 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 12 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the second time. | |||||||
| 7–11 Mar 2019 | 40% | 32% | 28% | 7% | 1,152 | Kantar | Online | |
| 4–8 Mar 2019 | 49% | 42% | 9% | 7% | 1,330 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 4–5 Mar 2019 | 46% | 39% | 15% | 8% | 2,042 | ComRes | Online | |
| 21–23 Feb 2019 | 45% | 41% | 13% | 4% | 1,027 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 18 Feb 2019 | 47% | 44% | 8% | 3% | 849 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 17–18 Feb 2019 | 48% | 38% | 14% | 10% | 1,832 | YouGov | Online | |
| 8–11 Feb 2019 | 43% | 43% | 13% | 0% | 2,004 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 7–11 Feb 2019 | 43% | 35% | 22% | 8% | 1,145 | Kantar | Online | |
| 4–8 Feb 2019 | 50% | 40% | 9% | 10% | 1,363 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 30 Jan 2019 | 52% | 43% | 6% | 9% | 847 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 22–23 Jan 2019 | 45% | 38% | 16% | 7% | 1,699 | YouGov | Online | |
| 16–17 Jan 2019 | 48% | 42% | 11% | 6% | 2,083 | ORB | Online | |
| 16–17 Jan 2019 | 47% | 39% | 14% | 7% | 2,031 | ComRes | Online | |
| 16 Jan 2019 | 48% | 38% | 14% | 10% | 1,070 | YouGov | Online | |
| 15 Jan 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the first time.[20] | |||||||
| 14–15 Jan 2019 | 44% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 2,010 | ComRes | Online | |
| 10–14 Jan 2019 | 44% | 35% | 21% | 8% | 1,106 | Kantar | Online | |
| 10–11 Jan 2019 | 47% | 45% | 8% | 2% | 808 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 8-11 Jan 2019 | 49% | 41% | 10% | 8% | 1,344 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 21 Dec 2018 – 4 Jan 2019 | 46% | 39% | 15% | 7% | 25,537 | YouGov | Online | |
| 16–17 Dec 2018 | 45% | 41% | 14% | 4% | 1,660 | YouGov | Online | [note 1] |
| 14–15 Dec 2018 | 46% | 37% | 17% | 9% | 1,660 | YouGov | Online | |
| 13–14 Dec 2018 | 44% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 2,022 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 4–7 Dec 2018 | 52% | 40% | 7% | 12% | 1,379 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 5–6 Dec 2018 | 36% | 33% | 31% | 3% | 1,178 | Kantar | Online | |
| 30 Nov – 3 Dec 2018 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 2,007 | Opinium | ||
| 9–30 Nov 2018 | Ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest to the government's proposed withdrawal agreement (or to plans preceding it).[21] | |||||||
| 28–29 Nov 2018 | 47% | 39% | 14% | 8% | 1,655 | YouGov | Online | |
| 22–23 Nov 2018 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1,691 | YouGov | Online | |
| 15 Nov 2018 | 50% | 45% | 5% | 5% | 874 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 14–15 Nov 2018 | 46% | 40% | 14% | 6% | 1,153 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14–15 Nov 2018 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 2,000 | ComRes | Online | Not weighted by 2016 vote |
| 14 Nov 2018 | The UK Cabinet approves a new draft withdrawal agreement.[22] | |||||||
| 8-12 Nov 2018 | 39% | 34% | 27% | 5% | 1,147 | Kantar | Online | |
| 7–9 Nov 2018 | 45% | 41% | 13% | 4% | 3,344 | YouGov | Online | |
| 6–9 Nov 2018 | 49% | 42% | 9% | 7% | 1,339 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 2–7 Nov 2018 | 51% | 46% | 4% | 5% | 1,674 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 24 Oct – 6 Nov 2018 | 47% | 40% | 13% | 7% | 8,154 | Populus | Online | |
| 20 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 50% | 44% | 7% | 6% | 16,337 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 24–26 Oct 2018 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 0% | 1,017 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 22–23 Oct 2018 | 46% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 1,802 | YouGov | Online | |
| 11–15 Oct 2018 | 38% | 35% | 28% | 3% | 1,128 | Kantar | Online | |
| 3–5 Oct 2018 | 48% | 41% | 11% | 7% | 1,346 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 28–29 Sep 2018 | 47% | 43% | 10% | 4% | 1,075 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 8–26 Sep 2018 | 51% | 34% | 15% | 17% | 941 | Kantar Public | Face to face | Respondents aged 15+; unweighted |
| 21–22 Sep 2018 | 48% | 42% | 10% | 6% | 901 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 20–21 Sep 2018 | 43% | 43% | 13% | 0% | 1,762 | YouGov | Online | [note 1] |
| 6–10 Sep 2018 | 42% | 35% | 23% | 7% | 1,119 | Kantar | Online | |
| 7–9 Sep 2018 | 46% | 42% | 11% | 4% | 2,051 | ICM | Online | |
| 7 Sep 2018 | 47% | 46% | 8% | 1% | 854 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 46% | 44% | 10% | 2% | 975 | Possible voters | |||
| 4–7 Sep 2018 | 47% | 43% | 10% | 4% | 1,372 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 28 Aug – 4 Sep 2018 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 10,215 | YouGov | Online | |
| 31 Jul – 4 Sep 2018 | 46% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 25,641 | YouGov | Online | |
| 31 Aug – 1 Sep 2018 | 47% | 47% | 6% | 0% | 864 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 21–22 Aug 2018 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1,667 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14–20 Aug 2018 | 46% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 10,299 | YouGov | Online | |
| 31 Jul – 20 Aug 2018 | 46% | 40% | 13% | 6% | 18,772 | YouGov | Online | |
| 9–13 Aug 2018 | 40% | 35% | 25% | 5% | 1,119 | Kantar | Online | |
| 6–10 Aug 2018 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 7% | 1,316 | BMG Research | Online | With squeeze responses. [note 1] |
| 49% | 41% | 10% | 8% | Without squeeze responses. [note 1] | ||||
| 31 Jul – 7 Aug 2018 | 46% | 40% | 14% | 6% | 10,121 | YouGov | Online | |
| 26–31 Jul 2018 | 46% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 4,957 | YouGov | Online | |
| 25–26 Jul 2018 | 45% | 42% | 13% | 3% | 1,631 | YouGov | Online | |
| 23–24 Jul 2018 | 47% | 41% | 12% | 6% | 1,627 | YouGov | Online | |
| 47% | 44% | 9% | 3% | YouGov | [note 1] | |||
| 19–20 Jul 2018 | 44% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 1,668 | YouGov | Online | |
| 12–14 Jul 2018 | 45% | 45% | 11% | 0% | 1,484 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 8–9 Jul 2018 | Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign.[23] | |||||||
| 5–9 Jul 2018 | 40% | 32% | 28% | 8% | 1,086 | Kantar | Online | |
| 7 Jul 2018 | 49% | 45% | 5% | 4% | 855 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 6 Jul 2018 | The UK Cabinet agrees the Chequers statement, setting out a proposal on the future UK–EU relationship.[24] | |||||||
| 28 Jun – 6 Jul 2018 | 47% | 41% | 13% | 6% | 10,383 | YouGov | Online | |
| 3–5 Jul 2018 | 51% | 45% | 5% | 6% | 1,359 | BMG Research | Online | With squeeze responses. [note 1] |
| 49% | 43% | 8% | 6% | Without squeeze responses. [note 1] | ||||
| 26–27 Jun 2018 | 44% | 44% | 12% | 0% | 1,626 | YouGov | Online | [note 1] |
| 19–20 Jun 2018 | 50% | 44% | 6% | 6% | 866 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 10–11 Jun 2018 | 45% | 40% | 15% | 5% | 1,654 | YouGov | Online | |
| 5–8 Jun 2018 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | 1,350 | BMG Research | Online | With squeeze responses. [note 1] |
| 46% | 43% | 10% | 3% | Without squeeze responses. [note 1] | ||||
| 31 May – 4 Jun 2018 | 48% | 47% | 6% | 1% | 1,724 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 9–16 May 2018 | 47% | 42% | 11% | 5% | 2,006 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 8–10 May 2018 | 47% | 47% | 6% | 0% | 1,585 | Survation | Online | |
| 1–4 May 2018 | 49% | 44% | 7% | 5% | 1,361 | BMG Research | Online | With squeeze responses. [note 1] |
| 47% | 43% | 11% | 4% | Without squeeze responses. [note 1] | ||||
| 25–30 Apr 2018 | 45% | 42% | 13% | 3% | 1,637 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14 Apr 2018 | 47% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 1,746 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 10–13 Apr 2018 | 51% | 42% | 6% | 9% | 1,432 | BMG Research | Online | With squeeze responses. [note 1] |
| 49% | 40% | 10% | 9% | Without squeeze responses. [note 1] | ||||
| 6–8 Apr 2018 | 45% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 2,012 | ICM | Online | |
| 5–6 Apr 2018 | 44% | 41% | 15% | 3% | 1,636 | YouGov | Online | |
| 23–26 Mar 2018 | 45% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 1,658 | YouGov | Online | [note 1] |
| 13-16 Mar 2018 | 50% | 44% | 6% | 6% | 1,658 | BMG Research | Online | With squeeze responses. [note 1] |
| 49% | 42% | 9% | 7% | Without squeeze responses. [note 1] | ||||
| 7–8 Mar 2018 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | 2,092 | ORB | Online | Not weighted by 2016 vote |
| 2 Mar 2018 | 43% | 46% | 12% | 3% | 1,096 | ComRes | Online | Not weighted by 2016 vote |
| 2 Mar 2018 | Theresa May makes Mansion House speech, outlining the UK Government's policy on the future UK–EU relationship.[25] | |||||||
| 27–28 Feb 2018 | 44% | 41% | 14% | 3% | 1,646 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14–16 Feb 2018 | 46% | 42% | 13% | 4% | 1,482 | Sky Data | Online | |
| 6–9 Feb 2018 | 47% | 44% | 9% | 3% | 1,325 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 26–29 Jan 2018 | 49% | 46% | 6% | 3% | 912 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 18–22 Jan 2018 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1,633 | YouGov | Online | |
| 16–19 Jan 2018 | 49% | 41% | 10% | 8% | 1,096 | Sky Data | Online | |
| 10–19 Jan 2018 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 5,075 | ICM | Online | |
| 9–12 Jan 2018 | 48% | 44% | 9% | 4% | 1,373 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 11 Jan 2018 | 51% | 43% | 6% | 8% | 1,049 | ComRes | Online | Not weighted by 2016 vote |
| 13–19 Dec 2017 | 39% | 48% | 13% | 9% | 1,692 | YouGov | Online | [note 1] |
| 15 Dec 2017 | The European Council decides to proceed to the second phase of the Brexit negotiations.[26] | |||||||
| 8–10 Dec 2017 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 2,006 | ICM | Online | |
| 5–8 Dec 2017 | 51% | 41% | 8% | 10% | 1,363 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 30 Nov – 1 Dec 2017 | 49% | 46% | 6% | 3% | 874 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 16–17 Nov 2017 | 43% | 43% | 14% | 0% | 1,672 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14–17 Nov 2017 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 1,399 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 18–24 Oct 2017 | 44% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 1,648 | YouGov | Online | |
| 19–20 Oct 2017 | 46% | 45% | 9% | 1% | 1,005 | Opinium | Online | |
| 17-20 Oct 2017 | 47% | 44% | 8% | 3% | 1,360 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 4–5 Oct 2017 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 3% | 1,769 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 26 Sep–2 Oct 2017 | 44% | 46% | 9% | 2% | 1,645 | YouGov | Online | [note 1] |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 46% | 47% | 6% | 1% | 999 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 22 Sep 2017 | Theresa May makes Florence speech, in an attempt to 'unblock' the Brexit negotiations.[27] | |||||||
| 19–22 Sep 2017 | 45% | 44% | 12% | 1% | 2,004 | Opinium | Online | |
| 15–20 Sep 2017 | 47% | 47% | 5% | 0% | 1,410 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 12–15 Sep 2017 | 47% | 43% | 10% | 4% | 1,379 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 12–15 Sep 2017 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 2,009 | Opinium | Online | |
| 23–24 Aug 2017 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 1,729 | YouGov | Online | |
| 15–18 Aug 2017 | 47% | 44% | 9% | 3% | 2,006 | Opinium | Online | |
| 8-11 Aug 2017 | 46% | 45% | 9% | 1% | 1,358 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 23–24 Jul 2017 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1,609 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14–15 Jul 2017 | 47% | 48% | 5% | 1% | 909 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 11–14 Jul 2017 | 46% | 45% | 9% | 1% | 1,385 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 28–30 Jun 2017 | 52% | 44% | 5% | 8% | 1,017 | Survation | Telephone | |
| 23–30 Jun 2017 | 46% | 42% | 13% | 4% | 1,661 | YouGov | Online | |
| 16–21 Jun 2017 | 46% | 50% | 4% | 4% | 5,481 | Panelbase | Online | |
| 19 Jun 2017 | Brexit negotiations begin.[28] | |||||||
| 16–17 Jun 2017 | 50% | 48% | 3% | 2% | 1,005 | Survation | Telephone | Likely voters |
| 10 Jun 2017 | 48% | 46% | 6% | 2% | 1,036 | Survation | Online | Likely voters |
| 8 Jun 2017 | 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||
| 2–7 Jun 2017 | 46% | 51% | 3% | 5% | 3,018 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 2–5 Jun 2017 | 47% | 44% | 9% | 3% | 1,363 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 26 May – 1 Jun 2017 | 47% | 49% | 4% | 2% | 1,224 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 25–30 May 2017 | 35% | 38% | 27% | 3% | 1,199 | Kantar TNS | Online | |
| 21–22 May 2017 | 43% | 43% | 13% | 0% | 1,974 | YouGov | Online | |
| 19–22 May 2017 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 1,360 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 12–15 May 2017 | 47% | 50% | 3% | 3% | 1,026 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 5–9 May 2017 | 47% | 49% | 4% | 2% | 1,027 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 28 Apr – 2 May 2017 | 48% | 49% | 3% | 1% | 1,034 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 21–24 Apr 2017 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 1,465 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 20–24 Apr 2017 | 46% | 50% | 4% | 4% | 1,026 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 28–31 Mar 2017 | 46% | 46% | 8% | 0% | 1,437 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 23–30 Mar 2017 | 44% | 43% | 14% | 1% | 1,643 | YouGov | Online | |
| 29 Mar 2017 | The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.[29] | |||||||
| 19 Feb – 2 Mar 2017 | 42% | 44% | 15% | 2% | 1,784 | YouGov | Online | |
| 21–24 Feb 2017 | 45% | 46% | 9% | 1% | 1,477 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 19–20 Feb 2017 | 42% | 44% | 15% | 2% | 1,784 | YouGov | Online | |
| 19–24 Jan 2017 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 1,643 | YouGov | Online | |
| 17 Jan 2017 | Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.[30] | |||||||
| 6–9 Jan 2017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 1,354 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 14–21 Dec 2016 | 44% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 1,569 | YouGov | Online | |
| 15–18 Dec 2016 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | 2,048 | ComRes | Online | |
| 6–9 Dec 2016 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | 1,379 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 21 Nov – 9 Dec 2016 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 1,693 | YouGov | Online | |
| 28–29 Nov 2016 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1,624 | YouGov | Online | |
| 25–27 Nov 2016 | 46% | 47% | 6% | 1% | 2,035 | ComRes | Online | |
| 22–25 Nov 2016 | 43% | 43% | 14% | 0% | 1,409 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 20–25 Oct 2016 | 44% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 1,631 | YouGov | Online | |
| 19–24 Oct 2016 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 1,546 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 10–12 Oct 2016 | 44% | 44% | 12% | 0% | 1,002 | Survation | Online | |
| 2 Oct 2016 | Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.[31] | |||||||
| 16–20 Sep 2016 | 42% | 46% | 11% | 4% | 1,601 | YouGov | Online | |
| 31 Aug – 9 Sep 2016 | 43% | 45% | 13% | 2% | 1,711 | YouGov | Online | |
| 21–22 Jul 2016 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 1,673 | YouGov | Online | |
| 13 Jul 2016 | Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.[32] | |||||||
| 3–4 Jul 2016 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 1,820 | YouGov | Online | |
| 29–30 Jun 2016 | 45% | 37% | 19% | 8% | 1,017 | BMG Research | Telephone[33] | |
| 28–30 Jun 2016 | 48% | 42% | 9% | 6% | 2,006 | Opinium | Online | |
| 23 Jun 2016 | 35% | 37% | 28% | 3% | United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016 [note 3] | |||
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw Question does not explicitly ask how respondents would vote in a referendum.
- ^ Question asked in poll: "Regardless of the way you voted in the 2016 referendum, do you support or oppose the UK abiding by the referendum result and leaving the EU?"
- ^ Percentages are of registered voters.
Selective polling
[edit]| Date(s) conducted | Remain | Leave | Neither | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23–26 Jul 2019 | 46% | 40% | 14% | 6% | 1,071 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 20–23 Jun 2019 | 69% | 28% | 3% | 41% | 1,813 | YouGov | Online | Members of trade unions |
| 16–20 May 2019 | 44% | 41% | 15% | 3% | 1,009 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 26 Feb – 1 Mar 2019 | 70% | 22% | 8% | 48% | 5,004 | YouGov | Online | Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands |
| 69% | 16% | 15% | 50% | YouGov | Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands. [note 1] | |||
| 72% | 19% | 10% | 53% | YouGov | Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands. [note 2] | |||
| 15–22 Feb 2019 | 76% | 14% | 10% | 62% | 499 | BMG Research | Online | Respondents of voting age only since 2016's referendum |
| 48% | 22% | 30% | 26% | 1,125 | Non-voters | |||
| 2–7 Nov 2018 | 61% | 34% | 4% | 27% | 914 | Panelbase | Online | Scotland only; likely voters |
| 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 45% | 41% | 14% | 4% | 1,031 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 3–6 Oct 2018 | 90% | 7% | 2% | 83% | 665 | YouGov | Online | SNP members; unweighted |
| 13–18 Sep 2018 | 90% | 7% | 3% | 83% | 1,054 | YouGov | Online | Labour Party members |
| 6–11 Sep 2018 | 63% | 18% | 19% | 45% | 1,645 | YouGov | Online | 18–24 age group |
| 69% | 13% | 18% | 56% | 480 | Respondents of voting age only since 2016's referendum | |||
| 30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 | 55% | 37% | 8% | 18% | 620 | YouGov | Online | GMB members |
| 30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 | 68% | 27% | 6% | 41% | 1,081 | YouGov | Online | UNISON members |
| 30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 | 61% | 35% | 4% | 26% | 1,058 | YouGov | Online | Unite the Union members |
| 31 Jul – 3 Sep 2018 | 58% | 30% | 11% | 28% | 3,051 | YouGov | Online | London only |
| 24–28 Aug 2018 | 60% | 38% | 2% | 22% | 1,199 | Deltapoll | Online | Northern Ireland only |
| 31 Jul – 20 Aug 2018 | 42% | 42% | 16% | 0% | 807 | YouGov | Online | North East England only |
| 31 Jul – 19 Aug 2018 | 44% | 42% | 14% | 2% | 939 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 8–14 Aug 2018 | 58% | 30% | 12% | 28% | 1,977 | YouGov | Online | Scotland only |
| 31 Jul – 7 Aug 2018 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 930 | YouGov | Online | South West England only |
| 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | 44% | 39% | 17% | 5% | 1,031 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 12–15 Mar 2018 | 45% | 44% | 12% | 1% | 1,015 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 21–24 Nov 2017 | 45% | 40% | 15% | 5% | 1,016 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 4–7 Sep 2017 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1,011 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 29–31 May 2017 | 42% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 1,014 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 18–21 May 2017 | 45% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 1,025 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 5–7 May 2017 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | 1,018 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 19–21 Apr 2017 | 43% | 43% | 14% | 0% | 1,029 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
Three-option referendum
[edit]On 6 July 2018, the UK Cabinet agreed a statement at Chequers that set out a proposal for the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union,[34] following which two members of the Cabinet resigned.[35] On 16 July 2018 the former Education Secretary Justine Greening noted the lack of a political consensus behind the Chequers proposal and said that, due to a 'stalemate' in the House of Commons, the issue of Brexit should be referred back to the electorate. She proposed a referendum with three options: to leave the EU on such terms as might be agreed between the UK Government and the EU 27; to leave the EU without agreed terms; or to remain in the EU. Voters would be asked to mark a first and second preference using the supplementary vote system. If there were no majority for any particular option among first-preference votes, the third-placed option would be eliminated and second preferences would be used to determine the winner from the two remaining options.[36]
The following table shows opinion polls that have been conducted on how people would vote in a three-option referendum. The table shows the poll results for a first round in which all three options would be available, and for a second round in which only the top two options in the first round would be available.
| Date(s) conducted | Round | Remain | Deal | No deal | None | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17–18 Oct 2019 | — | 45% | 34% | 17% | 5% | 11% | 1,025 | Survation | Online | [note 1] |
| — | 41% | 38% | 18% | 4% | 3% | [note 1][note 2] | ||||
| — | 42% | 42% | — | 16% | 0% | |||||
| 17 Oct 2019 | EU and UK negotiators agree a new withdrawal agreement.[37] | |||||||||
| 2–14 Oct 2019 | — | 42% | 30% | 20% | 8% | 12% | 26,000 | ComRes | [note 1][note 2] | |
| 5–6 Sep 2019 | — | 55% | — | 41% | 5% | 14% | 864 | Panelbase | Online | Likely voters |
| 24 Jul 2019 | Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as Prime Minister | |||||||||
| 2–5 Jul 2019 | — | — | 26% | 34% | 40% | 8% | 1,532 | BMG Research | Online | |
| — | 43% | 25% | — | 32% | 18% | |||||
| — | 44% | — | 38% | 18% | 6% | |||||
| 23 May 2019 | 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom | |||||||||
| 23–24 Apr 2019 | I | 44% | 10% | 28% | 18% | 15% | 1,787 | YouGov | Online | |
| — | 45% | 29% | — | 26% | 17% | |||||
| 9–12 Apr 2019 | — | 45% | 36% | — | 19% | 8% | 2,007 | Opinium | ||
| 29 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the third time. | |||||||||
| 28–29 Mar 2019 | — | 46% | 38% | — | 16% | 8% | 2,008 | Opinium | ||
| 19 Mar 2019 | — | 46% | 30% | — | 24% | 16% | 2,084 | YouGov | Online | |
| — | 46% | — | 36% | 18% | 10% | YouGov | ||||
| 15 Mar 2019 | — | — | 36% | 35% | 29% | 1% | 1,007 | Survation | Online | [note 1] |
| 14–15 Mar 2019 | — | 47% | 32% | — | 22% | 15% | 1,823 | YouGov | Online | |
| — | 47% | — | 38% | 15% | 9% | YouGov | ||||
| 12 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the second time. | |||||||||
| 30 Jan 2019 | I | 46% | 19% | 26% | 9% | 19% | 1,029 | Survation | Online | A new deal without the Northern Ireland backstop |
| 10–17 Jan 2019 | I | 37% | 23% | 29% | 10% | 8% | 1,030 | Number Cruncher Politics | Online | [note 1] |
| 16 Jan 2019 | — | 47% | 27% | — | 26% | 20% | 1,070 | YouGov | Online | |
| — | 48% | — | 35% | 16% | 13% | YouGov | ||||
| 15 Jan 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the first time.[38] | |||||||||
| 10–11 Jan 2019 | I | 41% | 22% | 30% | 8% | 11% | 1,013 | Survation | Online | |
| 21 Dec 2018 – 4 Jan 2019 | — | 46% | 29% | — | 26% | 17% | 25,537 | YouGov | Online | |
| — | 46% | — | 34% | 20% | 12% | YouGov | ||||
| 12–14 Dec 2018 | — | 45% | 31% | — | 23% | 14% | 5,043 | YouGov | Online | |
| 6–7 Dec 2018 | I | 45% | 15% | 24% | 17% | 21% | 1,652 | YouGov | Online | |
| II | 57% | — | 43% | — | 14% | |||||
| — | 47% | 29% | — | 24% | 18% | YouGov | ||||
| 30 Nov – 3 Dec 2018 | — | 45% | 33% | — | 22% | 12% | 2,007 | Opinium | ||
| 9–30 Nov 2018 | Ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest to the government's proposed withdrawal agreement (or to plans preceding it).[39] | |||||||||
| 26–27 Nov 2018 | I | 27% | 18% | 15% | 40% | 9% | 1,013 | Deltapoll[40] | Online | [note 1] |
| II | 44% | 56% | — | — | 12% | No "Neither" option. [note 1] | ||||
| — | 48% | — | 52% | — | 4% | |||||
| — | — | 59% | 41% | — | 18% | |||||
| 23–26 Nov 2018 | I | 47% | 17% | 26% | 10% | 21% | 1,119 | Sky Data | Online | |
| II | 57% | — | 43% | — | 14% | |||||
| 15 Nov 2018 | I | 43% | 16% | 28% | 13% | 15% | 1,070 | Survation | Online | |
| — | 43% | 34% | — | 23% | 10% | |||||
| — | — | 32% | 34% | 34% | 2% | |||||
| 15 Nov 2018 | I | 54% | 14% | 32% | — | 22% | 1,488 | Sky Data | SMS | "Neither" excluded. Not weighted by 2016 vote. |
| 14 Nov 2018 | The UK Cabinet approves a new draft withdrawal agreement.[41] | |||||||||
| 24 Oct – 6 Nov 2018 | — | 48% | 43% | — | 9% | 5% | 8,154 | Populus | Online | |
| 28 Sep – 1 Oct 2018 | I | 51% | 12% | 28% | 9% | 23% | 1,443 | Sky Data | Online | |
| II | 59% | — | 41% | — | 18% | |||||
| 10–11 Sep 2018 | I | 43% | 15% | 28% | 14% | 15% | 1,070 | Sky Data | Online | |
| II | 55% | — | 45% | — | 10% | |||||
| 17–20 Aug 2018 | I | 48% | 12% | 30% | 10% | 18% | 1,330 | Sky Data | Online | |
| II | 52% | — | 37% | 12% | 15% | |||||
| 31 Jul – 7 Aug 2018 | I | 40% | 11% | 27% | 22% | 13% | 10,121 | YouGov | Online | |
| II | 56% | — | 44% | — | 12% | |||||
| 20–23 Jul 2018 | I | 48% | 13% | 27% | 11% | 21% | 1,466 | Sky Data | Online | |
| II | 59% | — | 41% | — | 18% | |||||
| 19–20 Jul 2018 | I | 41% | 9% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 1,668 | YouGov | Online | |
| II | 54% | — | 46% | — | 8% | |||||
| 16–17 Jul 2018 | I | 42% | 15% | 28% | 15% | 14% | 1,657 | YouGov | Online | |
| II | 55% | — | 45% | — | 10% | |||||
| 8–9 Jul 2018 | Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign.[42] | |||||||||
| 6 Jul 2018 | The UK Cabinet agrees the Chequers statement, setting out a proposal on the future UK–EU relationship.[43] | |||||||||
| 23 Jun 2016 | 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum | |||||||||
Selective polling
[edit]| Date(s) conducted | Round | Remain | Deal | No deal | None | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2019 | — | 29% | 38% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 409 | Survation | Telephone | Only in Gedling; [note 1][note 2] |
| 23–26 Jul 2019 | — | — | 61% | 39% | — | 22% | 1,071 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 16–20 May 2019 | — | — | 54% | 46% | — | 8% | 1,009 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 7–10 May 2019 | — | 56% | 23% | — | 21% | 33% | 1,015 | YouGov | Online | London only |
| — | — | 38% | 21% | 41% | 17% | |||||
| 6–11 Sep 2018 | I | 58% | 10% | 9% | 23% | 48% | 1,645 | YouGov | Online | 18–24 age group |
| II | 82% | 18% | — | — | 64% |
Four-option referendum
[edit]Some polls have offered respondents a choice between remaining in the EU, leaving the EU but remaining within the European Single Market or EU Customs Union (see notes), accepting the negotiated deal and leaving without a deal.
| Date(s) conducted | Remain | Single Market | Deal | No deal | None | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–19 Aug 2019 | 33% | 13% | 9% | 23% | 22% | 10% | 1,133 | Kantar Archived 21 August 2019 at the Wayback Machine | Online | |
| 30 Jun – 1 Jul 2019 | 38% | 11% | 12% | 26% | 13% | 12% | 1,668 | YouGov | Online | |
| 17–18 Jun 2019 | 43% | 16% | 13% | 28% | — | 15% | 1,680 | YouGov | Online | |
| 28–29 May 2019 | 46% | 13% [note 1] | 9% | 32% | — | 14% | 1,763 | YouGov | Online | |
| 22–26 Mar 2019 | 46% | 14% [note 1] | 14% | 27% | — | 19% | 5,412 | YouGov | Online |
Support for another referendum
[edit]There have been opinion polls to gauge support for a second referendum, on whether to accept or reject the final Brexit deal. Polling results vary depending on how the question is phrased: in general a "second referendum" is less popular than a "public vote" or similar descriptor.[44] One YouGov poll conducted in April 2018 for Best for Britain showed much greater support for the public "[having] a final say on whether Britain accepts the deal or remains in the EU after all" than for "a public vote" on the same question.[45]
| Date(s) conducted | Support | Oppose | Neither | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17–18 Oct 2019 | 47% | 44% | 9% | 3% | 1,025 | Survation | Online | |
| 43% | 41% | 16% | 2% | [note 1] | ||||
| 17 Oct 2019 | EU and UK negotiators agree a new withdrawal agreement.[46] | |||||||
| 2–14 Oct 2019 | 41% | 45% | 14% | 4% | 26,000 | ComRes | Three-option referendum | |
| 29–30 Sep 2019 | 47% | 29% | 24% | 18% | 1,620 | YouGov | Online | As opposed to a parliamentary vote, if a deal is negotiated. |
| 52% | 23% | 25% | 29% | As opposed to a parliamentary vote, if no deal is negotiated. | ||||
| 5–9 Sep 2019 | 53% | 29% | 18% | 24% | 1,144 | Kantar | Online | |
| 5–7 Sep 2019 | 43% | 42% | 15% | 1% | 2,049 | Deltapoll | Online | [note 1] |
| 3–4 Sep 2019 | 46% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 1,533 | YouGov | Online | |
| 29–31 Aug 2019 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | 2,028 | Deltapoll | Online | [note 1] |
| 15–19 Aug 2019 | 52% | 29% | 19% | 23% | 1,133 | Kantar | Online | |
| 25–27 Jul 2019 | 44% | 44% | 12% | 0% | 2,001 | Deltapoll | Online | [note 1] |
| 24 Jul 2019 | Boris Johnson replaces Theresa May as Prime Minister | |||||||
| 2–5 Jul 2019 | 41% | 39% | 19% | 2% | 1,532 | BMG Research | Online | [note 1] |
| 23 May 2019 | 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom | |||||||
| 9–13 May 2019 | 47% | 28% | 25% | 19% | 1,152 | Kantar | Online | |
| 4–8 Apr 2019 | 51% | 32% | 17% | 19% | 1,172 | Kantar | Online | |
| 2–5 Apr 2019 | 52% | 24% | 24% | 28% | 1,500 | BMG Research | Online | |
| 3 Apr 2019 | 35% | 39% | 25% | 4% | 1,068 | Sky Data | Online | [note 2] |
| 1 Apr 2019 | The House of Commons rejects a motion proposing a referendum on the withdrawal agreement in the second round of indicative votes. | |||||||
| 28–30 Mar 2019 | 40% | 38% | 22% | 2% | 1,010 | Deltapoll | Online | |
| 29 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the third time. | |||||||
| 28–29 Mar 2019 | 42% | 40% | 19% | 2% | 2,008 | Opinium | Online | On whether MPs should have voted for the relevant motion during the indicative votes |
| 27 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons rejects a motion proposing a referendum on the withdrawal agreement in the first round of indicative votes. | |||||||
| 27 Mar 2019 | 40% | 35% | 25% | 4% | 1,005 | Sky Data | Online | On whether MPs should vote for the relevant motion during the indicative votes |
| 19 Mar 2019 | 48% | 36% | 15% | 12% | 2,084 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14–15 Mar 2019 | 48% | 36% | 15% | 12% | 1,823 | YouGov | Online | |
| 50% | 36% | 14% | 14% | YouGov | On whether to leave with no deal or remain in the EU, if the UK looks set to leave without a deal | |||
| 14–15 Mar 2019 | 38% | 52% | 10% | 14% | 1,756 | YouGov | Online | [note 1] |
| 14 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons rejects an amendment which called for a referendum on the withdrawal agreement. | |||||||
| 12 Mar 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the second time. | |||||||
| 4–5 Mar 2019 | 44% | 56% | — | 11% | 2,042 | ComRes | Online | No "Neither" option. Unusual wording. [note 1] |
| 21–23 Feb 2019 | 43% | 45% | 11% | 2% | 1,027 | Deltapoll | Online | [note 1] |
| 18 Feb 2019 | 47% | 35% | 18% | 12% | 1,021 | Survation | Online | |
| 8–11 Feb 2019 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | 2,004 | Deltapoll | Online | [note 1] |
| 4–8 Feb 2019 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 18% | 1,503 | BMG Research | Online | |
| 18 Jan 2019 | 39% | 48% | 14% | 9% | 1,021 | Sky Data | Online | [note 1] |
| 17 Jan 2019 | 30% | 30% | 40% | 0% | 1,792 | Sky Data | Online | Three-option referendum |
| 35% | 29% | 36% | 6% | Sky Data | [note 2] | |||
| 33% | 31% | 35% | 2% | Sky Data | [note 3] | |||
| 37% | 30% | 33% | 7% | Sky Data | [note 4] | |||
| 16–17 Jan 2019 | 38% | 47% | 15% | 9% | 2,031 | ComRes | Online | [note 1] |
| 16 Jan 2019 | 47% | 36% | 16% | 11% | 1,070 | YouGov | Online | |
| 15 Jan 2019 | The House of Commons votes to reject the Government's proposed withdrawal agreement for the first time.[47] | |||||||
| 14–15 Jan 2019 | 35% | 48% | 17% | 12% | 2,010 | ComRes | Online | [note 1] |
| 8–11 Jan 2019 | 46% | 28% | 26% | 18% | 1,514 | BMG Research | Online | |
| 7–8 Jan 2019 | 36% | 49% | 15% | 13% | 1,754 | YouGov | Online | [note 1] |
| 21 Dec 2018 – 4 Jan 2019 | 41% | 36% | 22% | 5% | 25,537 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14–15 Dec 2018 | 44% | 35% | 21% | 9% | 1,660 | YouGov | Online | Three-option referendum |
| 14–15 Dec 2018 | 50% | 27% | 22% | 23% | 1,660 | YouGov | Online | If Parliament cannot decide how to proceed |
| 13–14 Dec 2018 | 43% | 46% | 12% | 3% | 2,022 | Deltapoll | Online | [note 1] |
| 12–14 Dec 2018 | 44% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 5,043 | YouGov | Online | |
| 30 Nov-2 Dec 2018 | 40% | 50% | 11% | 10% | 2,035 | ComRes | Online | [note 1] |
| 9–30 Nov 2018 | Ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey resign in protest to the government's proposed withdrawal agreement (or to plans preceding it).[48] | |||||||
| 28–29 Nov 2018 | 45% | 36% | 18% | 9% | 1,655 | YouGov | Online | |
| 23–26 Nov 2018 | 53% | 39% | 8% | 14% | 1,119 | Sky Data | Online | Three-option referendum |
| 15-16 Nov 2018 | 44% | 30% | 26% | 14% | 1,256 | Populus | Online | |
| 15 Nov 2018 | 55% | 35% | 10% | 20% | 1,488 | Sky Data | SMS | Three-option referendum. Not weighted by 2016 vote. |
| 15 Nov 2018 | 42% | 38% | 20% | 4% | 1,070 | Survation | Online | |
| 14–15 Nov 2018 | 48% | 34% | 17% | 14% | 1,153 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14–15 Nov 2018 | 47% | 53% | — | 6% | 2,000 | ComRes | Online | Only if there is no deal. Not weighted by 2016 vote. No "Neither" option. [note 1] |
| 14 Nov 2018 | The UK Cabinet approves a new draft withdrawal agreement.[49] | |||||||
| 7 Nov 2018 | The Scottish Parliament commits to providing unequivocal support for a public vote on the final terms of the Brexit deal.[50] | |||||||
| 24 Oct – 6 Nov 2018 | 65% | 35% | — | 30% | 8,154 | Populus | Online | No "Neither" option |
| 20 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 43% | 37% | 20% | 6% | 20,086 | Survation | Online | [note 2] |
| 38% | 39% | 23% | 1% | [note 3] | ||||
| 39% | 37% | 24% | 2% | [note 5] | ||||
| 28 Sep – 1 Oct 2018 | 53% | 40% | 7% | 13% | 1,443 | Sky Data | Online | Three-option referendum |
| 25–26 Sep 2018 | 34% | 50% | 16% | 16% | 1,634 | YouGov | Online | [note 3] |
| 37% | 48% | 15% | 11% | [note 2] | ||||
| 21–22 Sep 2018 | 39% | 43% | 17% | 4% | 1,643 | YouGov | Online | |
| 18–19 Sep 2018 | 40% | 43% | 17% | 3% | 2,509 | YouGov | Online | |
| 10–11 Sep 2018 | 50% | 39% | 10% | 11% | 1,070 | Sky Data | Online | Three-option referendum |
| 4–5 Sep 2018 | 40% | 41% | 18% | 1% | 1,628 | YouGov | Online | |
| 31 Jul – 4 Sep 2018 | 45% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 25,641 | YouGov | Online | |
| 31 Aug – 1 Sep 2018 | 40% | 43% | 17% | 3% | 1,600 | YouGov | Online | |
| 31 Aug – 1 Sep 2018 | 45% | 37% | 18% | 9% | 1,017 | Survation | Online | |
| 17–20 Aug 2018 | 50% | 42% | 9% | 8% | 1,330 | Sky Data | Online | Three-option referendum |
| 31 Jul – 20 Aug 2018 | 45% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 18,772 | YouGov | Online | |
| 6–10 Aug 2018 | 48% | 24% | 27% | 24% | 1,481 | BMG Research | Online | |
| 26–31 Jul 2018 | 43% | 41% | 17% | 2% | 4,957 | YouGov | Online | [note 2] |
| 25–26 Jul 2018 | 42% | 40% | 18% | 2% | 1,631 | YouGov | Online | |
| 24 Jul 2018 | The Independent launches its campaign for a second referendum.[51] | |||||||
| 20–23 Jul 2018 | 50% | 40% | 10% | 9% | 1,466 | Sky Data | Online | Three-option referendum |
| 16–17 Jul 2018 | 40% | 42% | 18% | 2% | 1,657 | YouGov | Online | |
| 36% | 47% | 17% | 11% | Three-option referendum | ||||
| 10–11 Jul 2018 | 37% | 41% | 23% | 4% | 1,732 | YouGov | Online | |
| 8–9 Jul 2018 | Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign.[52] | |||||||
| 6 Jul 2018 | The UK Cabinet agrees the Chequers statement, setting out a proposal on the future UK–EU relationship.[53] | |||||||
| 3–5 Jul 2018 | 44% | 27% | 29% | 17% | 1,511 | BMG Research | Online | |
| 19–20 Jun 2018 | 37% | 45% | 18% | 8% | 1,663 | YouGov | Online | |
| 19–20 Jun 2018 | 48% | 25% | 27% | 23% | 1,022 | Survation | Online | |
| 13–14 May 2018 | 38% | 46% | 16% | 8% | 1,634 | YouGov | Online | |
| 12 May 2018 | The National Union of Students calls for a referendum on the final deal.[54] | |||||||
| 1–4 May 2018 | 53% | 31% | 16% | 22% | 2,005 | Opinium | ||
| 15 Apr 2018 | People's Vote campaign launched.[55] | |||||||
| 10–12 Apr 2018 | 52% | 31% | 17% | 21% | 2,008 | Opinium | Online | |
| 9–10 Apr 2018 | 38% | 45% | 17% | 7% | 1,639 | YouGov | Online | |
| 6–8 Apr 2018 | 47% | 36% | 17% | 11% | 2,012 | ICM | Online | [note 2] |
| 5–6 Apr 2018 | 39% | 45% | 17% | 6% | 823 | YouGov | Online | [note 2] |
| 26–27 Mar 2018 | 36% | 42% | 22% | 6% | 1,659 | YouGov | Online | |
| 16–23 Mar 2018 | 41% | 52% | 7% | 11% | 1,616 | Sky Data | Online | [note 1] |
| 5–6 Mar 2018 | 36% | 43% | 20% | 7% | 1,641 | YouGov | Online | |
| 2 Mar 2018 | 35% | 54% | 11% | 19% | 1,096 | ComRes | Online | [note 1] |
| 2 Mar 2018 | Theresa May makes Mansion House speech, outlining the UK Government's policy on the future UK–EU relationship.[56] | |||||||
| 16–23 Mar 2018 | 41% | 52% | 7% | 12% | 1,616 | Sky Data | Online | [note 1] |
| 14–16 Feb 2018 | 34% | 54% | 11% | 20% | 1,482 | Sky Data | Online | [note 1] |
| 16–19 Jan 2018 | 35% | 56% | 9% | 21% | 1,096 | Sky Data | Online | [note 1] |
| 10–19 Jan 2018 | 47% | 34% | 19% | 13% | 5,075 | ICM | Online | [note 2] |
| 9–10 Jan 2018 | 36% | 43% | 21% | 7% | 1,714 | YouGov | Online | |
| 15 Dec 2017 | The European Council decides to proceed to the second phase of the Brexit negotiations.[57] | |||||||
| 10–11 Dec 2017 | 33% | 42% | 24% | 9% | 1,680 | YouGov | Online | |
| 30 Nov – 1 Dec 2017 | 50% | 34% | 16% | 16% | 1,003 | Survation | Online | |
| 23–24 Oct 2017 | 32% | 46% | 22% | 14% | 1,637 | YouGov | Online | |
| 22–24 Sep 2017 | 34% | 46% | 21% | 12% | 1,716 | YouGov | Online | |
| 22 Sep 2017 | Theresa May makes Florence speech, in an attempt to 'unblock' the Brexit negotiations.[58] | |||||||
| 12–13 Sep 2017 | 34% | 47% | 19% | 13% | 1,660 | YouGov | Online | |
| 14–15 Jul 2017 | 46% | 39% | 15% | 7% | 1,024 | Survation | Online | |
| 7–11 Jul 2017 | 41% | 48% | 12% | 7% | 2,005 | Opinium | [note 2] | |
| 28–30 Jun 2017 | 46% | 47% | 6% | 1% | 1,017 | Survation | Telephone | |
| 16–20 Jun 2017 | 38% | 51% | 11% | 13% | 2,005 | Opinium | [note 2] | |
| 19 Jun 2017 | Brexit negotiations begin.[59] | |||||||
| 16–17 Jun 2017 | 48% | 43% | 9% | 5% | 1,005 | Survation | Telephone | |
| 16–17 Jun 2017 | 38% | 57% | 4% | 19% | 1,005 | Survation | Telephone | [note 2] |
| 10 Jun 2017 | 36% | 55% | 9% | 18% | 1,036 | Survation | Online | [note 1] |
| 8 Jun 2017 | 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||
| 28 Apr – 2 May 2017 | 36% | 53% | 11% | 17% | 2,003 | Opinium | [note 2] | |
| 27–28 Apr 2017 | 31% | 49% | 20% | 18% | 1,612 | YouGov | Online | |
| 21–22 Apr 2017 | 39% | 46% | 14% | 7% | 2,072 | Survation | Online | |
| 20–21 Apr 2017 | 31% | 48% | 21% | 17% | 1,590 | YouGov | Online | |
| 29 Mar 2017 | The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.[60] | |||||||
| 17–21 Mar 2017 | 38% | 52% | 10% | 14% | 2,003 | Opinium | [note 2] | |
| 17 Jan 2017 | Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.[61] | |||||||
| 15–18 Dec 2016 | 35% | 53% | 13% | 18% | 2,048 | ComRes | [note 1] | |
| 13–16 Dec 2016 | 33% | 52% | 15% | 19% | 2,000 | Opinium | [note 2] | |
| 2 Oct 2016 | Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.[62] | |||||||
| 13 Jul 2016 | Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.[63] | |||||||
| 29–30 Jun 2016 | 32% | 60% | 7% | 28% | 1,017 | BMG Research | Telephone | [note 1] |
| 27–28 Jun 2016 | 31% | 58% | 11% | 27% | 1,760 | YouGov | Online | [note 1] |
| 23 Jun 2016 | 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum | |||||||
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y Question asked about a second EU referendum, not necessarily on the final deal.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or remain in the EU.
- ^ a b c Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or leave the EU without a deal.
- ^ Referendum on whether to remain in the EU or leave the EU without a deal.
- ^ Referendum on whether to accept the negotiated terms or re-open negotiations with a view to getting a better deal.
Selective polling
[edit]| Date(s) conducted | Support | Oppose | Neither | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23–26 Jul 2019 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | 1,071 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 20–23 Jun 2019 | 64% | 33% | 3% | 31% | 1,813 | YouGov | Online | Members of trade unions |
| 16–20 May 2019 | 40% | 49% | 12% | 9% | 1,009 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 26 Feb – 1 Mar 2019 | 65% | 22% | 13% | 43% | 5,004 | YouGov | Online | Labour 2017 voters living in Northern England and the Midlands |
| 15–22 Feb 2019 | 54% | 19% | 27% | 35% | 499 | BMG Research | Online | Respondents of voting age only since 2016's referendum |
| 38% | 25% | 37% | 13% | 1,125 | Non-voters | |||
| 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | 1,031 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 3–6 Oct 2018 | 83% | 10% | 6% | 73% | 665 | YouGov | Online | SNP members; unweighted |
| 13–18 Sep 2018 | 86% | 8% | 6% | 78% | 1,054 | YouGov | Online | Labour Party members |
| 6–11 Sep 2018 | 52% | 22% | 25% | 30% | 1,645 | YouGov | Online | 18–24 age group |
| 30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 | 56% | 33% | 10% | 23% | 620 | YouGov | Online | GMB members |
| 30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 | 66% | 22% | 11% | 44% | 1,081 | YouGov | Online | UNISON members |
| 30 Aug – 5 Sep 2018 | 59% | 33% | 8% | 26% | 1,058 | YouGov | Online | Unite the Union members |
| 31 Jul – 3 Sep 2018 | 52% | 30% | 19% | 22% | 3,051 | YouGov | Online | London only |
| 31 Jul – 19 Aug 2018 | 44% | 36% | 21% | 8% | 939 | YouGov | Online | Wales only |
| 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | 40% | 45% | 15% | 5% | 1,031 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 27–30 Jun 2018 | 57% | 34% | 9% | 23% | 902 | YouGov | Online | Unite the Union members |
| 12–15 Mar 2018 | 39% | 49% | 12% | 10% | 1,015 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 21–24 Nov 2017 | 44% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 1,016 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 4–7 Sep 2017 | 40% | 48% | 12% | 8% | 1,011 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 29–31 May 2017 | 33% | 56% | 11% | 23% | 1,025 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 18–21 May 2017 | 37% | 52% | 11% | 15% | 1,025 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 5–7 May 2017 | 37% | 53% | 10% | 16% | 1,018 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
| 19–21 Apr 2017 | 35% | 53% | 12% | 18% | 1,029 | YouGov | Online | Wales only. [note 1] |
On the UK rejoining the EU
[edit]Some polls conducted prior to the UK's formal exit worded the question as whether to rejoin rather than stay in the EU.
| Date(s) conducted | Join | Not join | Neither | Lead | Sample | Conducted by | Polling type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar 2019 | 38% | 38% | 25% | Tie | 1,005 | Sky Data | Online |
| 27 Mar – 5 Apr 2018 | 31% | 47% | 22% | 16% | 1,037 | Number Cruncher Politics | Online |
See also
[edit]- Opinion polling on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union (2020–present)
- Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election
- Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
- Opinion polling for the 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
References
[edit]- ^ a b Cecil, Nicholas (10 October 2019). "Brexit news latest: Poll of polls says Britain is now against leaving EU as most want to stay". Evening Standard. London Evening Standard. Archived from the original on 16 October 2019. Retrieved 19 October 2019.
- ^ Kellner, Peter (10 October 2019). "Everyone says they know what the public think about Brexit – here's the polling data that tells you who's right". The Independent. Archived from the original on 16 October 2019. Retrieved 16 October 2019.
- ^ Curtice, John (8 February 2019). "Has There Been a Shift in Support for Brexit?". What UK Thinks. Archived from the original on 16 May 2019. Retrieved 16 May 2019.
Until the 2017 general election typically more people said that the decision to leave the EU was right than stated it was wrong. Since then the oppose has been the case ... The reason why the balance of opinion had shifted in favour of Remain, even though very few Leave voters had changed their minds, was because those who had not voted before (in some cases because they had been too young to do so) were now decisively in favour of Remain.
- ^ Curtice, John (17 October 2019). "Have UK voters changed their minds on Brexit?". BBC News. Archived from the original on 23 October 2019. Retrieved 23 October 2019.
On average, during the last month, polls that ask people how they would vote in another referendum suggest that 88% of those who backed Remain would do so again. Among those who voted Leave, 86% have not changed their minds.
- ^ "New Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration". GOV.UK. Department for Exiting the European Union. 19 October 2019. Retrieved 2 November 2019.
The revised Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration were considered and agreed at European Council on 17 October 2019.
- ^ "Brexit: Theresa May's deal is voted down in historic Commons defeat". BBC News. 15 January 2019. Retrieved 17 January 2019.
- ^ "Tory minister Sam Gyimah resigns in protest at Theresa May's Brexit deal". The Daily Telegraph. 1 December 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
- ^ "Brexit: Cabinet backs draft agreement". BBC News. 14 November 2018. Retrieved 2 December 2018.
- ^ "Boris Johnson tells PM she is suffocating Brexit 'dream'". BBC News. 9 July 2018. Retrieved 9 July 2018.
- ^ "Brexit: Cabinet agrees 'collective' stance on future EU deal". BBC News. 7 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
- ^ "'Hard facts' for both sides in Brexit talks – Theresa May". BBC News. 2 March 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2018.
- ^ "Brexit: EU leaders agree to move talks to next stage". BBC News. 15 December 2017. Retrieved 16 December 2017.
- ^ "Theresa May urges EU to retain trade terms for two years after Brexit". BBC News. 22 September 2017. Retrieved 13 October 2017.
- ^ "Brexit negotiations: Barnier rules out 'concessions'". BBC News. 19 June 2017. Retrieved 23 June 2017.
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External links
[edit]- EURef2 Poll of Polls — What UK Thinks
