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Next Japanese general election

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Next Japanese general election

← 2024 By 27 October 2028

All 465 seats in the House of Representatives
233 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Ishiba Shigeru 20241001 (cropped).jpg
Yosuke Suzuki with Yoshihiko Noda 2024-10-20(3) (cropped).jpg
Hirofumi Yoshimura and Seiji Maehara.png
Leader Shigeru Ishiba Yoshihiko Noda Hirofumi Yoshimura
Seiji Maehara
Party LDP CDP Ishin
Leader since 27 September 2024 23 September 2024 1 December 2024
Leader's seat Tottori 1st Chiba 14th N/A[a]
Kyoto 2nd
Last election 191 seats 148 seats 38 seats
Current seats 191 148 38
Seats needed Increase42 Increase85 Increase195

 
Motohisa Furukawa 20100130 (cropped).jpg
Tetsuo Saito 20211004 (cropped).jpg
Taro Yamamoto 2022-6-26(1)(cropped).jpg
Leader Motohisa Furukawa[b]
(Interim)
Tetsuo Saito Tarō Yamamoto
Party DPP Komeito Reiwa
Leader since 4 December 2024 9 November 2024 1 April 2019
Leader's seat Aichi 2nd Hiroshima 3rd Did not stand[c]
Last election 28 seats 24 seats 9 seats
Current seats 28 24 9
Seats needed Increase205 Increase209 Increase234

 
Tomoko Tamura 2024-10-26(4) (cropped).jpg
Sohei Kamiya 2023-2-19(1) (cropped).jpg
Naoki Hyakuta cropped 2 Naoki Hyakuta and Kiyoaki Kawanami 20171029.jpg
Leader Tomoko Tamura Sohei Kamiya Naoki Hyakuta
Party JCP Sanseitō CPJ
Leader since 18 January 2024[d] 30 August 2023 1 September 2023
Leader's seat Tokyo PR block Did not stand[c] N/A
Last election 8 seats 3 seats 3 seats
Current seats 8 3 3
Seats needed Increase225 Increase230 Increase230

Districts and PR districts, shaded according to winners' vote strength

Incumbent Prime Minister

Shigeru Ishiba
LDP



The 51st general election of the House of Representatives is scheduled to be held no later than 27 October 2028 to elect all 465 seats of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. Voting will take place in all constituencies, including 289 single-seat electoral districts and 176 proportional blocks.[1]

The 2024 general election resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a minority government led by Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. An election may occur before the scheduled date if the Prime Minister dissolves Parliament for a snap election or if the House of Representatives passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely during minority governments, as the Prime Minister does not command a majority in the House of Representatives.

Background

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The 2024 general election resulted in the loss of majority of the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito governing coalition under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.[2]

The election will likely take place after:

Electoral system

[edit]

The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting. Of these, 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party-list, which requires either ≥5 Diet members or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election, are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present on the party list. If they lose their constituency vote, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats. However, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10% of the vote in their majoritarian constituency, they are also disqualified as a proportional candidate.

Opinion polling

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LOESS curve of the party identification polling for the next Japanese general election with a 7-day average

Notes

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  1. ^ Currently serves as the Governor of Osaka Prefecture.
  2. ^ Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki was suspended from leadership positions for 3 months following revelations of an affair. Furukawa has been named interim chair.
  3. ^ a b A Member of the House of Councillors.
  4. ^ As the party's chairperson.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "選挙の種類". 総務省.
  2. ^ "Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM". Kyodo News. 2024-10-28.