Near-miss effect
The near-miss effect refers to when a player is encouraged to continue playing because the previous try appeared proximal to a win. It occurs primarily in gambling.[1][2] It occurs due to a higher motivation to continue gambling when the near-miss effect is present.[2]
Psychology
[edit]The near-miss effect is boosted by conditional reinforcement and personal control.[3][4] According to a study published in Neuron, gamblers have an inflated confidence when they choose their lottery ticket or throw the roulette ball by themselves compared to when another person throws it. For example, craps players have been found to throw the dice harder for a higher roll. This may be an important factor for a gambler to mistake a game of luck for a game of skill.[3] The near-miss effect stimulates reward-related parts of the brain such as the ventral striatum.[5] Studies have also found a higher heart rate and dopamine transmission in the brain due to the near-miss effect.[6][7] The near-miss effect may be caused due to conditional reinforcement, where the stimuli may cause the feeling that the gambler is close to a win.[4] Conditional reinforcement, although only useful in games of skill, may cause the brain to register a win.[8]
Documentation
[edit]Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, in 1982 considered a lottery where the winning ticket number is 865304 and there are three ticket holders, with numbers 361204, 965304 and 865305 respectively. They stipulated that the first two ticket holders would not be troubled, whereas the latter would experience frustration due to the near-miss effect.[1] An experiment on rats used a machine similar to a slot machine to study the near-miss effect. The machine allowed rats to press a lever in which, if all three lights on display flashed, the rats would win a pellet of food; otherwise, the lever would inflict a time penalty. The experiment found that the rats were more likely to press the lever when they won or when two of the three lights flashed (a near-miss).[8][9] Different studies have shown that about 30% of near-misses increased the rate of gambling behavior.[6]
The near-miss effect is commonly seen in slot machines. For example, in a slot machine where "cherry, cherry, cherry" signals a win, "cherry, cherry, lemon" would be an example of a near-miss.[4] Due to this, slot machines have a high rate of near-misses. This may add to their addictive potential.[10] The evidence for the emotional impact of near-misses is mixed; some studies show no significant results.[10][11]
References
[edit]- ^ a b Reid, R. L. (1986). "The psychology of the near miss" (PDF). Journal of Gambling Behavior. 2 (1): 32–39. doi:10.1007/BF01019932. ISSN 0742-0714.
- ^ a b Tao, Suo; Yang, Yan; Zeng, Fan; Mengmeng, Wang; Guoxiang, Zhao. "The near-miss effect in gambling game". Advances in Psychological Science (in Chinese). 26 (9).
- ^ a b Clark, Luke; Lawrence, Andrew J; Astley Jones, Frances; Gray, Nicola (2009). "Gambling Near-Misses Enhance Motivation to Gamble and Recruit Win-Related Brain Circuitry". Neuron. 61 (3): 481–490. doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2008.12.031. PMC 2658737. PMID 19217383.
- ^ a b c Pisklak, Jeffery M; Yong, Joshua J H; Spetch, Marcia L (2020). "The Near-Miss Effect in Slot Machines: A Review and Experimental Analysis Over Half a Century Later". Journal of Gambling Studies. 36 (2): 611–632. doi:10.1007/s10899-019-09891-8. PMC 7214505. PMID 31522339.
- ^ Quaglieri, Alessandro; Pizzo, Alessandra; Cricenti, Clarissa; Tagliaferri, Ginevra; Frisari, Francesca Valeria; Burrai, Jessica; Mari, Emanuela; Lausi, Giulia; Giannini, Anna Maria; Zivi, Pierpaolo (2024-02-01). "Gambling and virtual reality: unraveling the illusion of near-misses effect". Frontiers in Psychiatry. 15. doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2024.1322631. ISSN 1664-0640. PMC 10867214. PMID 38362030.
- ^ a b Clark, Luke; Liu, Rui; McKavanagh, Rebecca; Garrett, Alice; Dunn, Barnaby D.; Aitken, Michael R. F. (2013-11-12). "Learning and Affect Following Near-Miss Outcomes in Simulated Gambling". Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 26 (5): 442–450. doi:10.1002/bdm.1774. ISSN 0894-3257.
- ^ Chase, Henry W.; Clark, Luke (2010-05-05). "Gambling Severity Predicts Midbrain Response to Near-Miss Outcomes". Journal of Neuroscience. 30 (18): 6180–6187. doi:10.1523/JNEUROSCI.5758-09.2010. ISSN 0270-6474. PMC 2929454. PMID 20445043.
- ^ a b Lehrer, Jonah. "The Near-Miss Effect". Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ^ Winstanley, Catharine A.; Cocker, Paul J.; Rogers, Robert D. (2011-01-05). "Dopamine Modulates Reward Expectancy During Performance of a Slot Machine Task in Rats: Evidence for a 'Near-miss' Effect". Neuropsychopharmacology. 36 (5): 913–925. doi:10.1038/npp.2010.230. ISSN 1740-634X. PMC 3077261. PMID 21209612.
- ^ a b Palmer, Lucas; Ferrari, Mario A; Clark, Luke (2024). "The near-miss effect in online slot machine gambling: A series of conceptual replications". American Psychological Association. 38 (6): 716–727. doi:10.1037/adb0000999. PMID 38709628.
- ^ Barton, K. R.; Yazdani, Y.; Ayer, N.; Kalvapalle, S.; Brown, S.; Stapleton, J.; Brown, D. G.; Harrigan, K. A. (2017-12-01). "The Effect of Losses Disguised as Wins and Near Misses in Electronic Gaming Machines: A Systematic Review". Journal of Gambling Studies. 33 (4): 1241–1260. doi:10.1007/s10899-017-9688-0. ISSN 1573-3602. PMC 5663799. PMID 28421402.