2022 Mississauga—Lakeshore federal by-election
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Riding of Mississauga—Lakeshore | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election was held in the federal riding of Mississauga—Lakeshore in Ontario on December 12, 2022, following the resignation of incumbent Liberal MP Sven Spengemann.[1] After 6 years in Parliament, Spengemann resigned on May 27, 2022, to accept a role with the United Nations.[2][3] The election was won by former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa.
Background
[edit] | This section possibly contains original research. (November 2022) |
Constituency
[edit]Mississauga—Lakeshore includes the Mississauga neighbourhoods of Clarkson, Lakeview, Lorne Park, Mineola, Port Credit, Sheridan, Sheridan Park, Southdown and parts of Erindale and Cooksville.
Conservative support is centred in the central part of the riding, particularly in the upscale Lorne Park and Mineola areas, while the Liberals tend to do better along the waterfront of the riding, such as Port Credit and Lakeview, and the eastern and western edges of the riding in neighbourhoods like Clarkson and Sheridan.
Representation
[edit]The riding has been continuously represented by Liberals since 1993, except from between 2011 and 2015 when the riding was held by the Conservatives. Despite its recent history as a Liberal riding, the Liberals have rarely won the riding by large margins since the merger of the Conservative Party in 2003. Starting in 2015, as a part of the overall Liberal dominance of Greater Toronto Area seats and ridings, the riding has gone and stayed Liberal. Incumbent Sven Spengemann successfully defeated Conservative Stella Ambler in 2015 and 2019 and Conservative challenger Michael Ras in the 2021 snap election.
Campaign
[edit]The Speaker's warrant regarding the vacancy was received on May 30, 2022; under the Parliament of Canada Act the writ for a by-election had to be dropped no later than November 26, 2022, 180 days after the Chief Electoral Officer was officially notified of the vacancy via a warrant issued by the Speaker.[4] Under the Canada Elections Act, the minimum length of a campaign is 36 days between dropping the writ and election day.[4]
Candidates
[edit]Running for the Liberals is former MPP Charles Sousa, who represented the area provincially from 2007 to 2018 and previously served in the provincial cabinets of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne, including as Minister of Finance from 2013 to 2018.[5][6][7] Alex Crombie, a former Queen's Park staffer and son of Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie, was seen as a potential candidate prior to Sousa's nomination.[8]
Running for the Conservatives is Ron Chhinzer, a police officer of 20 years.[6] As a police officer, Chhinzer was a founding member of the Toronto Police Service's Integrated Gang Prevention Task Force, which was involved in implementing the city's gang exit strategy.[9] Former Conservative candidate Michael Ras, who finished second to Spengemann in 2021, considered running for the nomination before declining on social media.[5]
The NDP has nominated Julia Kole, who ran for the seat's provincial counterpart in the provincial election earlier in the year. Julia previously worked as a Constituency Assistant for an MPP in Brampton. She holds a BA in accounting and an MSc in Environmental Policy and Management.[10]
Running for the Green Party is Mary Kidnew, the founder of the Mississauga-Lakeshore Green Party Electoral District Association (EDA), known community advocate and a past president of the Hillcrest Ratepayers Association.[6][11]
The People's Party nominated Khaled Al-Sudani as their candidate.[12]
Rhinoceros Party leader Sébastien CoRhino will contest the by-election.[13]
The Longest Ballot Committee[14] organized a protest against the Trudeau government's abandonment of electoral reform in 2017 by running thirty-three[citation needed] independent candidates, breaking their own record for most candidates nominated in a single riding in Canada, previously set in the riding of Saint Boniface—Saint Vital in the 2021 Canadian federal election.[15]
Polling
[edit]| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | LPC | CPC | NDP | GPC | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | October 27, 2022 | 40.5 | 37.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 13.2 | ±4.3 pp | 521 | IVR | |
| 43.5 | 40.8 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.9 | — | ||||||
| Mainstreet Research | December 8, 2022 | 47.5 | 38.8 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | ±5.9 pp | 279 | IVR | |
| 48.7 | 39.8 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | — |
Results
[edit]| Canadian federal by-election, December 12, 2022: Mississauga—Lakeshore Resignation of Sven Spengemann | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| Liberal | Charles Sousa | 12,766 | 51.45 | +6.50 | ||||
| Conservative | Ron Chhinzer | 9,215 | 37.14 | -1.54 | ||||
| New Democratic | Julia Kole | 1,231 | 4.96 | -4.79 | ||||
| Green | Mary Kidnew | 792 | 3.19 | +0.94 | ||||
| People's | Khaled Al-Sudani | 293 | 1.18 | -3.03 | ||||
| Independent | Sean Carson | 48 | 0.19 | — | ||||
| Independent | Charles Currie | 44 | 0.18 | — | ||||
| Independent | Patrick Strzalkowski | 38 | 0.15 | — | ||||
| Independent | Peter House | 31 | 0.12 | — | ||||
| Independent | Mélodie Anderson | 29 | 0.12 | — | ||||
| Rhinoceros | Sébastien CoRhino | 24 | 0.10 | -0.07 | ||||
| Independent | Conrad Lukawski | 23 | 0.09 | — | ||||
| Independent | Adam Smith | 23 | 0.09 | — | ||||
| Independent | Stephen Davis | 21 | 0.08 | — | ||||
| Independent | Marie-Hélène LeBel | 17 | 0.07 | — | ||||
| Independent | Eliana Rosenblum | 17 | 0.07 | — | ||||
| Independent | Myriam Beaulieu | 16 | 0.06 | — | ||||
| Independent | Roger Sherwood | 14 | 0.06 | — | ||||
| Independent | John The Engineer Turmel | 14 | 0.06 | — | ||||
| Independent | Jevin David Carroll | 12 | 0.05 | — | ||||
| Independent | Spencer Rocchi | 12 | 0.05 | — | ||||
| Independent | Tomas Szuchewycz | 12 | 0.05 | — | ||||
| Independent | Julie St-Amand | 11 | 0.04 | — | ||||
| Independent | Mark Dejewski | 11 | 0.04 | — | ||||
| Independent | Julian Selody | 10 | 0.04 | — | ||||
| Independent | Ben Teichman | 10 | 0.04 | — | ||||
| Independent | Mylène Bonneau | 9 | 0.04 | — | ||||
| Independent | Kerri Hildebrandt | 9 | 0.04 | — | ||||
| Independent | Line Bélanger | 8 | 0.03 | — | ||||
| Independent | Alexandra Engering | 8 | 0.03 | — | ||||
| Independent | Samuel Jubinville | 8 | 0.03 | — | ||||
| Independent | Jean-Denis Parent Boudreault | 7 | 0.03 | — | ||||
| Independent | Daniel Gagnon | 7 | 0.03 | — | ||||
| Independent | Darcy Justin Vanderwater | 6 | 0.02 | — | ||||
| Independent | Donovan Eckstrom | 5 | 0.02 | — | ||||
| Independent | Donald Gagnon | 5 | 0.02 | — | ||||
| Independent | Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville | 3 | 0.01 | — | ||||
| Independent | Ysack Dupont | 2 | 0.01 | — | ||||
| Independent | Pascal St-Amand | 2 | 0.01 | — | ||||
| Independent | Alain Lamontagne | 1 | 0.00 | — | ||||
| Total valid votes | 24,814 | |||||||
| Total rejected ballots | 135 | 0.54 | ||||||
| Turnout | 24,949 | 27.76 | ||||||
| Eligible voters | 89,863 | |||||||
| Liberal hold | Swing | +4.02 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[16][17] | ||||||||
2021 result
[edit]| 2021 Canadian federal election | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | ||||
| Liberal | Sven Spengemann | 25,284 | 44.94 | -3.14 | ||||
| Conservative | Michael Ras | 21,761 | 38.68 | +1.65 | ||||
| New Democratic | Sarah Walji | 5,488 | 9.75 | +1.44 | ||||
| People's | Vahid Seyfaie | 2,367 | 4.21 | +3.04 | ||||
| Green | Elizabeth Robertson | 1,265 | 2.25 | -2.33 | ||||
| Rhinoceros | Kayleigh Tahk | 94 | 0.17 | - | ||||
| Total valid votes | 56,259 | |||||||
| Total rejected ballots | 524 | 0.92 | ||||||
| Turnout | 56,783 | 63.82 | ||||||
| Eligible voters | 88,977 | |||||||
| Liberal hold | Swing | -2.40 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[18] | ||||||||
References
[edit]- ^ Lee, Heidi (November 6, 2022). "Federal by-election to take place in Mississauga-Lakeshore on Dec. 12". Global News. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
- ^ Tumilty, Ryan (May 18, 2022). "Liberal MP Sven Spengemann to resign from GTA seat almost eight months after re-election". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved May 18, 2022.
- ^ Cornwell, Steve (May 19, 2022). "Mississauga Liberal MP resigns to work for United Nations less than a year after re-election". The Mississauga News. Retrieved May 19, 2022.
- ^ a b "Vacant Seats in the House of Commons Since the 2021 General Election". Elections Canada. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
- ^ a b Rana, Abbas (June 3, 2022). "Former Ontario finance minister Sousa not ruling out run for federal Liberal nomination in coveted Mississauga-Lakeshore riding". The Hill Times. Retrieved June 3, 2022.
- ^ a b c Rana, Abbas (October 17, 2022). "'High stakes' byelection in Mississauga-Lakeshore considered 'first battle of the next general election campaign,' say political insiders". The Hill Times. Retrieved October 18, 2022.
- ^ Callan, Isaac (November 5, 2022). "Former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa set to run in federal byelection". Global News. Retrieved November 5, 2022.
- ^ Rana, Abbas (October 31, 2022). "Alex Crombie could seek Liberal nomination for byelection in Mississauga-Lakeshore". The Hill Times. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
- ^ "MVote Ron Chhinzer for Mississauga-Lakeshore". ronchhinzer.ca. Retrieved November 30, 2022.
- ^ "Julia Kole (she/her)". LinkedIn. Retrieved November 27, 2022.
- ^ Cornwell, Steven (August 20, 2022). "'NDP and Green Party announce candidates for upcoming Mississauga federal byelection". Mississauga News. Retrieved October 18, 2022.
- ^ PPC HQ - People's Party of Canada [@peoplespca] (November 12, 2022). "Congratulations to Khaled Al-Sudani, our candidate for the upcoming Mississauga-Lakeshore by-election on December 12! https://t.co/uwEmbizCMu" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 18, 2022. Retrieved December 2, 2022 – via Twitter.
- ^ Sébastien CoRhino (November 9, 2022). "Done deal. Next thing: I'll win this election. Get ready Mississauga!!!!". Facebook. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
- ^ Longest Ballot Committee Mississauga-Lakeshore [@LongestBallot] (November 22, 2022). "It's ok to run as an independent candidate and I'm tired of pretending it's not. #mississaugalakeshore #cdnpoli #longestballot https://t.co/tfCM3D3jp9" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 28, 2022. Retrieved December 2, 2022 – via Twitter.
- ^ Patrick Cain (November 22, 2022). "Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection will have at least 40 candidates, a national record". ipolitics.ca. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
- ^ "Election Candidates - By-election - December 12, 2022". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 2, 2022.
- ^ "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada. December 16, 2022. Retrieved December 22, 2022.
- ^ "List of confirmed candidates – September 20, 2021 Federal Election". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 2, 2021.