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2020s commodities boom

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The 2020s commodities boom refers to the rise of many commodity prices in the early 2020s following the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 recession initially made commodity prices drop, but lockdowns, supply chain bottlenecks, and dovish monetary policy limited supply and created excess demand causing a commodity super cycle rise.[1][better source needed]

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine worsened the bottlenecks, creating the 2022–2023 Russia–European Union gas dispute and the 2021 United Kingdom natural gas supplier crisis, contributing to the 2021–2023 global energy crisis. As Russia and Belarus are major fertilizer exporters and natural gas is a primary component in many fertilizers, fertilizer prices rose accordingly, exacerbating the 2022–2023 food crises.[2]

The previous commodity super cycle was the 2000s commodities boom, which was attributed to emerging markets, especially that of China, providing a high demand for raw materials.

Food

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Main article: World food crises (2022–present)

Global food shortages already existed due to the COVID-19 pandemic when, during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia blockaded the Port of Odesa, preventing grain exports.[3] Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Eastern Europe because of its fertile soil and exports of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil.[4]

Turkey and the United Nations brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative between Russia and Ukraine, allowing the controlled export of grain through the Port to the Black Sea, though shipments have yet to reach prewar levels.[5]

Natural gas is in most fertilizers, and fertilizer prices rose due to the Russia–European Union gas dispute, contributing to the food crises.[6]

Oats

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Hectares of oats are down in North America[clarification needed] along with droughts in the United States is limiting supply. Demand is up around the world for oats and 38.5% in one year for East Asia.[7][8]

Orange juice

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Orange juice prices have been close to an all-time high in 2022 because of Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Citrus greening disease has been causing damage to citrus trees in the United States since 1998 when it was discovered, dropping the orange production by half.[9][10][11]

Eggs

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See also: Yarding

Bird flu outbreaks 2020–2023 H5N8 outbreak and the 2020–2023 H5N1 outbreak has affected the number of egg laying hens and output.[12]

Rice

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India put an export ban on white rice in July 2023, and placed an export tax on parboiled rice exports in August 2023. India is the largest exporter of rice and other counties that export a lot of rice their export prices climbed along with India. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to feel the biggest impact from the export control measures.[13]

Cocoa

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West Africa, a top producing region of cocoa was hit by strong Harmattan winds that lead to drier climates.[14] The region produces 3/4 of all cocoa beans.[15]

Lumber

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See also: Canada–United States softwood lumber dispute
Lumber prices

Lumber prices increased with the hot housing market. Potential new American tariffs of 17.99% on Canadian lumber also sent the price higher. Those tariffs were finalized lower to 11.64% by the Biden administration.[16] New contracts that allow semi trucks to haul contracts instead of just rail cars starting August 8, 2022, potentially contributing to normalization of prices in the second half of 2022.[17] Mortgage interest rates rising with inflation is another reason for cooling housing demand and consequently lumber as well.[18]

Natural gas

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Main articles: 2021 United Kingdom natural gas supplier crisis and Russia in the European energy sector
Natural gas prices in Europe and United States
  National Balancing Point NBP (UK) natural gas prices
  Europe TTF natural gas prices
  United States Henry Hub natural gas prices
Japan / Korea PLATTS LNG price

Natural gas prices have increased around the world. In Europe, Russia has invaded Ukraine and Europe is very dependent on Russia for natural gas via pipelines. Russia has economically weaponized natural gas and reduced flows on pipelines like the Nord Stream 1. Natural gas prices had been increasing worldwide before the invasion of Ukraine and increased substantially thereafter; in some areas, the price of gas has increased more than tenfold.[19][20]

Natural gas recently became more of a global market with liquefied natural gas and LNG ships maturing in size with Qatar being a world leader in exporting LNG.[21] This globalization of this fungible commodity has caused the prices to shadow each other more in different markets. Previously, natural gas was more difficult to ship, and required pipeline infrastructure, which generally can only be emplaced on land, or for relatively short distances undersea. With the increased use of LNG, gas can be shipped by sea, albeit with the requirement of specialized port facilities.

Piped natural gas

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Piped natural gas prices
  Hawaii
  Los Angeles
  San Francisco
  Boston
  San Diego
  US average

Piped natural gas prices have been rising steadily throughout the U.S. since 2020 but California has experienced exceptionally higher prices because of bad weather, a pipe explosion on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline, unscheduled maintenance, and the Aliso Canyon gas leak at the storage facility in the past, so it stores less now.[22]

Crude oil and petroleum products

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  Brent Crude
  West Texas Intermediate
  Diesel fuel (left)
  Gasoline (left)
  Crude oil price (WTI) (right)

Crude oil prices dropped dramatically during the first months of the COVID Pandemic (WTI went negative for a day) and production was cut in anticipation of a prolonged slowdown. Demand soon exceeded supply because of loose monetary policy causing a global energy crisis and prices to rise.[23] Russia's invasion of Ukraine also resulted in price increases due to sanctions and trade restrictions.

Jet fuel

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Jet fuel kerosene price
Jet fuel vs oil prices

Kerosene jet fuel refining has to compete with Diesel fuel and gasoline at the refineries when refining petroleum products.[24] Jet fuel topped $5 a gallon in 2022.

Kerosene heating oil #1

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Kerosene heating oil was approaching $4 per gallon in March 2022. The EIA stopped reporting the data in March 2022.[25][26][27]

Kerosene #1 heating oil price

Diesel heating oil #2

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Diesel heating oil went from around $2 before the pandemic to almost $5 a gallon in 2022. The prices have peaked and are falling in 2022.[citation needed]

Diesel #2 heating oil price

RBOB gasoline

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See also: Fuel taxes in the United States
RBOB gasoline prices

RBOB stands for Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending and is refined from crude oil and blended with 10% ethanol fuel. The price of RBOB closely follows the price of crude oil. RBOB plus the excise taxes on fuel reflect the price paid at the pump for gasoline.[28][29][30]

Electricity

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See also: Electricity sector of the United States

Electricity prices rose in the United States through 2021 and 2022 mostly from the increase in natural gas prices which makes up the 35% of electricity generated in the United States.[31][verification needed][additional citation(s) needed]

Lithium

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Lithium prices

The price of lithium carbonate started to rise in 2021 after slumping in 2020 and peaked in early 2022 close to $80,000 per ton. Demand for electric vehicles around the world is the primary cause for the price rise. In 2021, electric vehicle sales doubled to 6.6 million from 2020.[32]

Copper

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Price of copper

The price of copper rose through 2021 and peaked close to $5 per pound in Q2 2022 before retreating. Copper demand is expected to double from 25 million metric tonnes in 2022 to over 50 MMT by the year 2035.[33] The pandemic significantly increased the long-term equilibrium volatility of returns in the copper futures market, nearly doubling it.[34]

Nickel

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Nickel prices 2018–2022

In March 2022 nickel prices spiked higher over fear of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as Russia produced 15.2% of world nickel in 2021.[35]

Tin

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Prices of tin were up 79% in 2021 because of high demand for circuit boards.[36]

Tin prices 2008–2022

Titanium

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Titanium price

Demand for titanium is high because defense spending increases on and resulting from the Russo-Ukrainian War, parts for aircraft makers and defense contractors; additionally, automotive industry demand for titanium dioxide pigments remains high.[citation needed]

Rolled steel

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Hot-rolled steel prices hit close to $2,000 per ton in 2021.[37]

Rolled steel price

Palladium

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Palladium prices

Palladium is used widely in catalytic converters to curb harmful emissions from car exhaust. Russia produces 40% of all palladium in the world, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has rattled the palladium market.[38]

Rhodium

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Rhodium daily price 1992–2022

Rhodium is used widely in automotive catalytic converters. Many countries have agreed to the Paris climate accord to cut car emissions and have higher standards for exhaust.

South Africa produces 80–90% of Rhodium each year. Russia is the second largest producer of rhodium but it is around 1%. The COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa caused the country to enact lockdown restrictions in March 2020 and again in December 2020 – March 2021. This affected the supply of Rhodium causing the price to increase.[39][40]

Gold

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Price of gold 1915–2022

Gold started to increase in price at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as stocks sunk initially; gold is commonly seen as a safe haven from inflation and stock volatility. Gold crossed the $2,000 mark for the first time in August 2020 and again in March 2022.[41][42]

Iron ore

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Iron ore price 2010–2022

China is the number one consumer of iron ore, importing 80% of all internationally traded iron ore. The price has been very volatile because of curbs the CCP has placed on the steel industry to meet emission standards. Australia, Brazil, and China are the top three producers of iron ore.[43]

Cotton

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Cotton prices 2009–2022
See also: Cotton and 2020–2023 North American drought

In the Western United States there have been persistent droughts in the 2020s hurting cotton yields among other agricultural products.[44]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Commodity supercycle 2022: A stellar rally, but built on sand?". Capital. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  2. ^ Lynch, David J.; Reiley, Laura (July 14, 2022). "Fertilizer crisis delivers profits and pain as Ukraine fallout broadens". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  3. ^ Youssef, Nancy A.; Luxmoore, Matthew; MacDonald, Alistair (July 2, 2022). "Mines, Port Damage Threaten Revival of Sea Route for Ukraine Grain". The Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  4. ^ Reed, John; Terazono, Emiko; Heal, Alexandra; Joiner, Sam; Clark, Dan; Learner, Sam (April 27, 2022). "How Russia's war in Ukraine upended the breadbasket of Europe". Financial Times. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  5. ^ "Black Sea grain exports deal 'a beacon of hope' amid Ukraine war - Guterres". United Nations. July 22, 2022. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  6. ^ Weersink, Alfons; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia; von Massow, Michael (August 25, 2022). "The federal government's plan to cut fertilizer emissions will not threaten food security". The Conversation. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  7. ^ "Oats in strong demand, so why are hectares falling?". 17 October 2022.
  8. ^ "Why coffee and oat prices are rising faster than oil's". 22 December 2021.
  9. ^ "OJ prices are rising: Florida orange production expected to fall to lowest level in over 80 years". KSBW. 2022-12-16. Retrieved 2023-03-02.
  10. ^ Nosowitz, Dan (2021-02-14). "Researchers Find Possible Answer to Citrus Greening". Modern Farmer. Retrieved 2023-03-02.
  11. ^ "Asian citrus psyllid - Diaphorina citri Kuwayama". entnemdept.ufl.edu. Retrieved 2023-03-02.
  12. ^ "Wholesale egg prices may soon drop to $1 for first time since 2021". CNBC. 27 April 2023.
  13. ^ "Rice Export Prices Highest in More Than a Decade as India Restricts Trade | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service". 19 September 2023.
  14. ^ Angel, Maytaal; Teixeira, Marcelo (2024-02-09). "Cocoa prices soar to record highs as traders scramble for supplies". Reuters.
  15. ^ "Cocoa prices surge to all-time highs as bad weather hurts West Africa crop yield". CNBC. 8 February 2024.
  16. ^ "NAHB Welcomes Biden Administration Move to Lower Lumber Tariffs". 31 January 2022.
  17. ^ "Lumber prices are set for a shakeup with the rollout of new futures contracts - and a top broker says trading volume could soar 10 times".
  18. ^ "These are the 5 markets where home sales are cooling fastest: Sellers need to be 'realistic' about price, says broker". CNBC. 15 July 2022.
  19. ^ "3 charts show Europe's unprecedented natural gas crisis". CNBC. August 2022.
  20. ^ "Germany is preparing for a rough winter of sky-high energy costs". NPR.org. Retrieved 2022-11-03.
  21. ^ "Qatar Energy Data, Statistics and Analysis - Oil, Gas, Electricity, C…". Archived from the original on 2012-08-01. Retrieved 2022-08-06.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  22. ^ Karlamangla, Soumya (2023-02-16). "What's Fueling California's High Natural Gas Prices". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-03-02.
  23. ^ Gaffen, David (24 February 2022). "Analysis: Oil's journey from worthless in the pandemic to $100 a barrel". Reuters.
  24. ^ "What You Need to Know About Aviation Fuel Prices". 4 May 2022.
  25. ^ "#2 Heating Oil: The Difference Between Fuel Oils". 20 September 2021.
  26. ^ "Kerosene prices very high". 5 October 2022.
  27. ^ "EIA expects most U.S. Households will spend more on energy this winter".
  28. ^ "4 Factors You Didn't Know About RBOB".
  29. ^ "What is RBOB Gas?".
  30. ^ "RBOB Gasoline: Understanding One of the Most Important Commodities in the World - Commodity.com". commodity.com. 2022-10-21. Retrieved 2024-08-30.
  31. ^ "Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)".
  32. ^ "Lithium Price Forecast | is Lithium a Good Investment?".
  33. ^ "New Study Finds That the Future of Copper is Coming at Us Fast". Forbes.
  34. ^ Melo-Vega-Angeles, Oscar; Chuquillanqui-Lichardo, Bryan (2 August 2023). "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Volatility of Copper Futures". Economies. 11 (7): 200. doi:10.3390/economies11070200. ISSN 2227-7099.
  35. ^ "Nickel market remains at risk of further short squeezes: S&P Global". 31 March 2022.
  36. ^ "Tin price outlook dims in 2022 – report". 4 January 2022.
  37. ^ "Raw Steels MMI: Steel Prices Decline Amid Record HRC / Plate Spread". 16 August 2022.
  38. ^ Patel, Brijesh (3 March 2022). "Palladium hits over 7-month high on supply woes, gold rises". Reuters.
  39. ^ "3 reasons why rhodium prices have zoomed over 70% since January 1". 8 March 2021.
  40. ^ "Why the Price of Rhodium is Rocketing to Record Highs in 2021". 17 February 2021.
  41. ^ "Gold prices are popping as Russia invades Ukraine. Why you may want to resist the rush". CNBC. 24 February 2022.
  42. ^ "Gold Price Surges Above $2,000 to Highest Level Since 2020".
  43. ^ "China's Challenge with Iron Ore". 11 July 2022.
  44. ^ "Cotton Prices Soar as Texas Megadrought Persists".
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