2020 Vermont gubernatorial election
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Scott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Zuckerman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2020 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of Vermont. As Vermont does not impose term limits upon its governors, incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott was eligible to run for re-election to a third two-year term in office. On November 18, 2019, he confirmed that he was running for reelection, but did not yet publicly announce his campaign.[1] On May 28, 2020, he officially announced his candidacy but stated that he would not campaign, maintain a campaign staff, or fundraise because of the state of emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Vermont.[2] The primary was held on August 11. Scott won re-election to a third term in a landslide, defeating Progressive and Democratic nominee, Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman.
Scott's 41-point victory margin was the largest in a Vermont gubernatorial election since 1996 and the largest for a Republican candidate since 1950, even while Democrat Joe Biden carried the state by a more than the 35-point margin in the concurrent presidential election which was his strongest performance in the nation. Scott would improve upon his performance again in 2022.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Phil Scott, incumbent governor of Vermont[1][2]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Douglas Cavett[3]
- John Klar, lawyer and pastor[4]
- Bernard Peters, independent candidate for governor in 2014 and for state representative in 1986
- Emily Peyton, independent candidate for governor in 2012 and 2014, Liberty Union nominee for governor in 2018[5]
Results
[edit]
Scott—80–90%
Scott—70–80%
Scott—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 42,275 | 72.67% | |
| Republican | John Klar | 12,762 | 21.94% | |
| Republican | Emily Peyton | 970 | 1.67% | |
| Republican | Douglas Cavett | 966 | 1.66% | |
| Republican | Bernard Peters | 772 | 1.33% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 426 | 0.73% | |
| Total votes | 58,171 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- David Zuckerman, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont, former member of the Vermont Senate, former member of the Vermont House of Representatives, farmer, businessman, environmentalist[a][7] (Zuckerman elected to use the Progressive Party ballot line in the general election, listing the Democratic Party as a secondary nomination under Vermont's electoral fusion system.)[8]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Ralph "Carcajou" Corbo, former Rural Carrier for USPS, activist, Wallingford resident, and 2020 candidate for Vermont's at-large congressional district
- Rebecca Holcombe, former Vermont Education Secretary[9]
- Patrick Winburn, Bennington attorney[10]
Declined
[edit]- T. J. Donovan, Attorney General of Vermont[11] (running for re-election)
- Christine Hallquist, former CEO of the Vermont Electric Cooperative and nominee for governor in 2018[12]
Endorsements
[edit]Rebecca Holcombe
State officials
- Madeleine Kunin, former governor (1985-1991)[13]
Party chairs
- Dottie Deans, former Vermont Democratic Party chair[14]
Organizations
David Zuckerman
Federal officials
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont[16]
Individuals
- Ben Cohen, co-founder of Ben & Jerry's[17]
- Jerry Greenfield, co-founder of Ben & Jerry's[17]
- Bill McKibben, environmentalist, scholar at Middlebury College, and leader of 350.org[18]
Debates & forums
[edit]- CCTV Channel 17 Town Meeting TV - Democratic Primary Gubernatorial Forum 7/16/2020
- Brattleboro Community TV - Democratic Governor Candidate Debate 5/11/2020
Results
[edit]
Zuckerman—50–60%
Zuckerman—40–50%
Zuckerman—30–40%
Holcombe—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Zuckerman | 48,150 | 47.56% | |
| Democratic | Rebecca Holcombe | 37,599 | 37.14% | |
| Democratic | Patrick Winburn | 7,662 | 7.57% | |
| Democratic | Ralph Corbo | 1,288 | 1.27% | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 6,533 | 6.45% | |
| Total votes | 101,232 | 100.0% | ||
Progressive Party
[edit]Leaders within the Progressive Party endorsed David Zuckerman for the gubernatorial election, advocating for Zuckerman to be elected with write-in voters.[19] The party has stated that if Cris Ericson won the primary, "they would likely issue a 'non-endorsement.'"[19] On election night the progressive nomination was listed as too close to call.[20] Zuckerman was confirmed to have won the nomination a few days later when the final write-in vote count was confirmed.
Nominee
[edit]- David Zuckerman, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont, former member of the Vermont Senate, former member of the Vermont House of Representatives, farmer, businessman, environmentalist
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Cris Ericson, marijuana legalization activist, perennial candidate, and candidate for governor in 2002, 2004, 2010, 2012, 2016, and 2018, candidate for US senator in 2004, 2010, 2012 and 2016, candidate for US representative in 2018;[5] also ran for other statewide offices
- Boots Wardinski, Newbury resident, Liberty Union nominee for lieutenant governor in 2016[5]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | David Zuckerman (write-in) | 273 | 32.62% | |
| Progressive | Cris Ericson | 254 | 30.35% | |
| Progressive | Boots Wardinski | 239 | 28.55% | |
| Progressive | Phil Scott (write-in) | 41 | 4.90% | |
| Progressive | Write-ins (other) | 30 | 3.58% | |
| Total votes | 837 | 100.0% | ||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Wayne Billado III (I), also ran for lieutenant governor, state senator from Franklin County, and state representative from Franklin 3-1 district
- Michael A. Devost (I)
- Charly Dickerson (I)
- Kevin Hoyt (I), Republican nominee for state representative from Bennington 2–1 in 2018[21]
- Emily Peyton (I), candidate for governor in 2012, 2014, and 2018[22]
- Phil Scott (R), incumbent governor, former lieutenant governor and state senator, construction company owner
- Erynn Hazlett Whitney (I)
- David Zuckerman (P/D), lieutenant governor, former member of State Legislature, farmer, businessman, environmentalist
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[23] | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
| 270toWin[24] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Safe R | October 23, 2020 |
| Politico[27] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[28] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[29] | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Phil Scott (R) |
David Zuckerman (P/D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braun Research[30] | September 3–15, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4% | 55% | 24% | 17%[c] |
| We Ask America[31] | June 2–3, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Braun Research[32] | February 4–10, 2020 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 29% | 19% |
Hypothetical polling
with Rebecca Holcombe
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Phil Scott (R) |
Rebecca Holcombe (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America[31] | June 2–3, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Braun Research/VPR[33] | February 4–10, 2020 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 20% | 26% |
Endorsements
[edit]David Zuckerman (P/D)
Federal officials
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont, candidate for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020[16]
State politicians
- Tim Ashe, Senate president pro tempore, candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020
- Christopher Pearson, state senator
- Anthony Pollina, state senator, Progressive minority leader
- Brenda Siegel, candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020, candidate for governor in 2018[34][35]
Individuals
- Ben Cohen, co-founder of Ben & Jerry's[17]
- Howard Dean, former Vermont governor[36]
- Jerry Greenfield, co-founder of Ben & Jerry's[17]
- Madeleine Kunin, former Vermont governor[36]
- Bill McKibben, environmentalist, scholar at Middlebury College, and leader of 350.org[18]
- Peter Shumlin, former Vermont governor[36]
Organizations
Debates and forums
[edit]Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 248,412 | 68.49% | +13.30 | |
| Progressive | David Zuckerman | 99,214 | 27.35% | N/A | |
| Independent | Kevin Hoyt | 4,576 | 1.26% | N/A | |
| Independent | Emily Peyton | 3,505 | 0.97% | N/A | |
| Independent | Erynn Hazlett Whitney | 1,777 | 0.49% | N/A | |
| Independent | Wayne Billado III | 1,431 | 0.39% | N/A | |
| Independent | Michael A. Devost | 1,160 | 0.32% | N/A | |
| Independent | Charly Dickerson | 1,037 | 0.29% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,599 | 0.44% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 362,711 | 100.0% | +32.33 | ||
| Rejected ballots | 8,257 | 2.23% | |||
| Turnout | 370,968 | 73.27% | |||
| Registered electors | 506,312 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
[edit]By county
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Notes
[edit]- ^ Zuckerman is a member of the Progressive Party but also runs in Democratic primaries.
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Other/not sure/no opinion" with 16%; "No one/not voting on this item" with 1%; Billado (I), Devot (I), Dickerson (I), Hoyt (I), "refused" and Whitney (I) with 0%
References
[edit]- ^ a b Landen, Xander. "Scott says he's undecided on 2020 — but he's already fundraising". Vermont Digger. Retrieved December 4, 2019.
- ^ a b Baird, Joel Banner. "Gov. Scott seeks a third term, but will forego a campaign and fundraising". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved May 28, 2020.
- ^ "Vermont 2020 Candidate List".
- ^ Margolis, Jon (October 28, 2019). "Margolis: 'Rural populist' and GOP newcomer announces candidacy for governor". VTDigger. Retrieved October 30, 2019.
- ^ a b c "Election Information & Resources". sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved May 28, 2020.
- ^ a b c "Vermont Election Results - Official Results". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
- ^ Kinzel, Bob (January 13, 2020). "Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman Confirms The Speculation: He's Running For Governor In 2020". Vermont Public Radio. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
- ^ Winger, Richard (August 18, 2020). "David Zuckerman Wins Vermont Progressive Party Gubernatorial Nomination by Write-in Votes". Ballot Access News.
- ^ Heintz, Paul (July 16, 2019). "Former Ed Secretary Rebecca Holcombe to Run for Governor of Vermont". Seven Days. Retrieved July 16, 2019.
- ^ "Winburn for Governor | Winburn2020.com | United States". Mysite.
- ^ Landen, Xander; Norton, Kit; Meyn, Colin (June 5, 2019). "Attorney general eyes run for governor in 2020. 'I've had conversations.'". VTDigger. Retrieved June 6, 2019.
- ^ Landen, Xander (November 21, 2018). "Hallquist isn't ruling out another run. But for now, she's job hunting". VTDigger. Retrieved March 10, 2019.
- ^ "Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox announces he is running for Utah governor, vows a 'different,' positive campaign". The Salt Lake Tribune. May 14, 2019.
- ^ "Supporter". Rebecca for Vermont. Archived from the original on March 28, 2020. Retrieved March 28, 2020.
- ^ "EMILY's List Endorses Rebecca Holcombe for Vermont Governor". www.emilyslist.org.
- ^ a b "Bernie Sanders Endorses David Zuckerman for Governor". Seven Days.
- ^ a b c d "Ben and Jerry Endorse David". David Zuckerman for Governor. February 23, 2020. Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. Retrieved March 28, 2020.
- ^ a b "Bill McKibben Endorses David Zuckerman". David Zuckerman for Governor. February 13, 2020. Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. Retrieved March 28, 2020.
- ^ a b Elder-Connors, Liam. "Progressive Party Asks For Write-In To Beat Gubernatorial Candidates On Its Ballot". www.vpr.org. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
- ^ "Progressive governor race still too close to call". VTDigger. August 13, 2020.
- ^ "VT Elections Database » Candidate Profile..." VT Elections Database.
- ^ "VT Elections Database » Candidate Profile..." VT Elections Database.
- ^ "2020 Gubernatorial Ratings". insideelections.com. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Gubernatorial Elections Map". 270towin.
- ^ "2020 Gubernatorial race ratings". Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Governor Race Ratings for October 23, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "We rated every gubernatorial race in 2020. Here's who we think will win". Politico. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. June 13, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 5, 2020.
- ^ Braun Research
- ^ a b We Ask America
- ^ Braun Research
- ^ Braun Research/VPR
- ^ @BrendaForVT (October 3, 2020). "Proud to endorse David Zuckerman for Governor of Vermont! We're not better off than 4 years ago, we need a leader w…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "It Is Time. We Can't Wait". us18.campaign-archive.com.
- ^ a b c "Campaign Briefs: Zuckerman announces ex-gov endorsements". The Brattleboro Reformer. September 28, 2020. Retrieved September 29, 2020.
- ^ "2020 General Election Canvass Report" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 10, 2020. Retrieved November 19, 2020.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites