The Political Landscape of Latin America

When talking about the political landscape in Latin America one thing comes to mind, and that is how economic or social policies have been altered by left and progressive leaders winning elections in the region. Countries like Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile amongst others, are viewed as part of this ideological trend called “the Pink Tide”, which without doubt has reshaped the world order, challenging the regional and global balance of power.

With the recent election of left-wing Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico, political polarization in Latin America remains strong, with voters often drawn to extreme ends of the political spectrum, ultra-liberal or socialist, conservative or progressive.

The Pink Tide

Political analysts and historians coined the term ‘The Pink Tide’ referring to left-wing governments that swept across Latin America in the early 2000s. This movement had promises of social and economic development and was extremely reformist. This is because the Pink Tide was first and foremost a reaction to, and rejection of, neoliberal policies implemented during the 1990s. The Washington Consensus implemented many of these policies during the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s.

However, many of their leaders did not live up to these promises. A clear example of a country failing to pursue the Pink Tide fundamentals is Argentina. Instead of achieving welfare and social equality, under the hands of left leaders the Pink Tide has unfortunately resulted in increased poverty and social inequality. As a result, Argentinians recently elected the ultraliberal president Javier Milei.

Analysts have even come to the conclusion that the Pink Tide development framework has not been successful in addressing the problems of Latin American people, but instead has created an economic crisis and social injustice, such as in Venezuela.

The political landscape of Latin America after the Mexican elections

ColombiaOne spoke in an exclusive interview with Alexander Rojas, professor and director of Political Science and Government programs at El Bosque University. Professor Rojas started out by providing an analysis of the political geography of Latin America after the Mexican election. He said  “The political landscape of Latin America is not very stable, and has seen significant advances towards democracy over the last decade.” 

“The Mexican election, which is the second largest democracy in the region after Brazil, has confirmed what many experts and myself consider to be a second pink tide in Latin America. Out of 19 Latin American countries, there are three centrist governments, six right-wing governments, seven left-wing governments, and three authoritarian governments, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela,” he stated. 

Left-wing governments in Latin America

The conversation then shifted towards a brief analysis of left-wing governments in the region. On this topic, Professor Rojas said, “Out of those seven leftist governments, one must highlight their commitment to liberal democracy, in comparison with the first pink tide. This is because the first pink tide created autocracies that hindered democratic indexes in the region.” 

In addition to this, Professor Rojas pointed out, “The three largest democracies in the region, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia are ruled by leftist parties. This is very telling of the current political landscape in Latin America. The governments should have a unifying impact on three core values of left-wing politics, namely poverty, development, and education”, he added.

To summarize his views, Professor Rojas said, “This slight advantage that leftist leaders have in Latin America could be important if they can radically differentiate themselves from 21st-century socialism in three key aspects. Firstly, they must respect liberal democracies with free and fair elections and the rule of law. Secondly, solidifying and organizing leftwing parties, and third, being an established political option in elections for citizens.”

The political landscape in Latin America, an opening for regional integration? 

During the conversation with Professor Rojas, ColombiaOne also asked if he considered that the second pink tide could be a positive political wave for integration processes in the region. 

On this topic, Professor Rojas stated,  “The integration needed by 21st-century societies is still a chimera for Latin American politics. If we talk about traditional economic and political integration, with a very strong sovereign spirit, the region already has the multilateral spaces for it.” 

He explains that this is reflected by “institutions such as CELAC, which includes Latin America and the Caribbean with 33 different countries. In terms of economic integration, MERCOSUR is the best example of this process.” He also highlighted that “the OAS has not only re-claimed its political relevance but also its influence” 

Limitations for integration in Latin America

Despite this, Professor Rojas also recognized the limitations of integration in the region. He expanded on this idea by saying, “Latin America is far from advanced integration models such as the European Union. The region is currently unable to create multilateral institutional systems, with the ability to influence views of traditional state sovereignty and local politics.” 

He added, “The region is not ready to create free trade integrated markets, as well as ensure the movement of people, goods and services with open borders.” 

Professor Rojas deemed that, “advanced integration processes require advanced political thinking, and at the moment, none of the current political elite in Latin America wants to think outside of political sovereignty.” 

Brazil’s economic success 

Professor Rojas explained Brazil’s economic success under Lula’s tenure as president. “Lula is the most faithful representative of left-wing development. This sets him apart from his peers in the region. He has been the only left-wing president in this decade to have a national plan for re-industrialization. This is also strengthened by cementing Brazil in global capitalism through the BRICS and the G20.” 

He remarked, “In contrast with presidents such as Gustavo Petro, Lula has not stopped financing development through oil. On the contrary, Lula has deemed this to be a strategic resource until 2050 to finance local development and environmental policies.”

The political landscape in Latin America during the second half of the decade

Many experts have speculated that it is likely we see an increase in right-wing governments during the second half of the decade. Over this, Professor Rojas asserted that “Changes of government after elections are a direct consequence of efficient or inefficient governments. Taking this into account, a right-wing shift in Latin America will be strongly determined by the ability of left-wing governments to deliver their promises.”

Professor Rojas also added that, “The shift will also depend on their ability to create positive social policies. The unity and cohesiveness of the government in office, determined by the government’s hold on Congress, also influences this.”

In El Salvador, for instance, the failure of the traditional political parties has opened the way to new forms or governance. Nayib Bukele, self-proclaimed “coolest dictator in the world” has concentrated all the three branches of power to create a highly popular regime, as he has successfully resolved the issue of gang violence in his country.

As a closing statement to this conversation, Professor Rojas asserted that “A shift towards the right in Latin America will depend on how well left-wing governments perform during their time in office.