Prediction markets in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary

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2024 Presidential Election
Date: November 5, 2024
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This page provides an overview of prediction markets relating to the 2024 Democratic presidential primary.

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What is a prediction market?

Prediction markets allow users to purchase shares relating to the outcome of events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.

The share price in each individual forecast rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a payout for each share they held.

For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.

Why do prediction markets matter?

Prediction markets can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argued that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."[1][2][3]

Democratic presidential primary markets

See also: Democratic presidential nomination, 2020


PredictIt


The chart below shows 2024 Democratic presidential primary open share prices over time.[4]

RealClearPolitics prediction market averages

See also

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Ballotpedia's 2024 presidential election coverage
Democratic presidential primary prediction markets, 2020-2024
Use the dropdown menu below to navigate Ballotpedia's historical coverage of Democratic presidential primary prediction markets.
Additional reading




Footnotes

  1. ↑ Nature, "The power of prediction markets," October 18, 2016
  2. ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
  3. ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018
  4. ↑ PredictIt, "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?" accessed December 20, 2022
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