Can Wicked Defy Box Office Records?

Photo: Universal/YouTube

Wicked has already broken some box office records on opening (Glicked) weekend. But how far will the film take its newfound popularity? It seems like every big budget picture has the entire continued existence of Hollywood, the dream factory, resting on it shoulders. And with a combined budget of $300 million, Wicked and Wicked: Part Two do in fact have a lot of heavy lifting to do. The films are as heavily merchandized as Barbie before them, all of Twitter is holding space for discourse about the press tour, and Wicked part one follows a series of Broadway musical flops (or at least perceived flops: West Side Story, In the Heights, The Color Purple, and Dear Even Hansen all underperformed. For, uh, a lot of reasons. So even though the film is already a success, there’s still a lot more success to be achieved before Wicked can rest.

Accepting Gravity

The first Wicked film has already made $114 million domestically and $164.2 million internationally. Moana 2 could pour a big bucket of water all over Elphaba and there’d still be a lot to celebrate. If it stopped there, which it won’t, Wicked would already have the 3rd biggest domestic opening of the year, following Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2. It also has 4th biggest opening for a musical. It also already has the biggest opening of a Broadway adaptation, both domestically and worldwide, pushing out Into the Woods ($31 million) and Les Misérables ($103 million) respectively. Although Les Mis is really a West End musical than eventually went to Broadway, not a broadway orig. But that’s splitting hairs.

Pushing Back on Gravity

If and when Wicked surpasses $212 million, it will pass Into the Woods’ total box office take. Into the Woods, however only had a $50 million budget. The big record that Wicked needs to meet is exceeding the budget of it and its sequel film. Sure, you could argue that the first Wicked only needs to make over half that amount, but is that how Universal is going to see it? And what of the endless promo? That costs money, too. After $300 million, the pink and green film will no longer be in the red.

Defying Gravity

If Wicked goes over $400 million, it will enter the top 10 of musicals with the biggest box office, pushing out Grease. To get into the top 5, it would have to surpass Mamma Mia! at $609.9 million. And to truly fly solo, to fly free? Wicked would have to top $1.6 billion. That’s what, sigh, the “live-action” Lion King made globally. Can the Wicked Witch defeat the King of the Jungle? We’ll have to look to the western skies and see.