Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
China and Ukraine: Pulling Its Weight with Russia or Potemkin Peacemaker?
On Thursday, China’s ambassador, Ma Shengkun, presented his credentials at Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry. Ma, a career diplomat with a background in arms control, replaces Fan Xianrong who had held the post for the past four and a half years. While a diplomatic reshuffle was due, the timing of the turnover and the selection of Ma, in tandem with other recent developments, suggest that China discerns a gradual gathering of momentum for a peace process or truce talks in coming months. In short, Beijing may be seeking to posture itself in anticipation of a new initiative to end — or at least pause — the war in Ukraine.
Four Questions that Could Determine Haiti’s Future
Much has happened in Haiti over the past two weeks — none of it is reassuring. The Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) fired Prime Minister Garry Conille on November 10, after only six months in office. Moments before an interim prime minister was sworn in the next day, a U.S. commercial airliner was struck by gunfire, forcing a pause in flights to Haiti’s international airport. These developments underscore the reality facing Haiti's interim government and the immense challenges it faces in achieving a transition by February 2026, as outlined in an April 3, 2024 agreement. Given this dysfunction, Haitians and their international partners are rightly concerned that the country’s evolving political and security crisis will only further deepen.
A Delicate Balance: Promoting Nuclear Energy While Preventing Proliferation
As global energy demands intensify and the urgency of addressing climate shocks mounts, the role of nuclear energy has come to the forefront of discussions for governments, businesses and those concerned about sustainable development. Just last week, the Biden administration released a plan to triple U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050. While nuclear energy promises efficiency gains and significant emissions reductions, public opinion remains divided about the tradeoffs of increased investment, the safety risks and the implications for international security. This puts the U.S. at a crossroads as it tries to navigate its role in a world with new demands for nuclear energy and heightened risks of conflict between nuclear-armed states. Such risks were highlighted this week when Russia lowered its nuclear threshold in response to new U.S. authorizations for Ukraine to use long-range weapons.
Iraq’s Lingering ISIS Challenge and the Role of Dialogue in Return and Reintegration
With conflicts raging in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine and Sudan, concerns related to the extremist group ISIS may seem overtaken by these other conflicts. After all, Iraq declared the group’s military defeat in 2017 after the territory held by the extremists was retaken by Iraqi government forces in partnership with the United States. Yet just over a month ago, U.S. and Iraqi forces conducted a joint military raid against the group, killing nine senior ISIS leaders who were hiding in the rugged Hamrin Mountains in northern Iraq. This raid comes off the heels of the UK’s domestic intelligence chief stating that the group is positioning itself as a resurgent threat. Indeed, ISIS has conducted over 150 attacks so far this year in Iraq and Syria, more than those claimed by the group in 2023.
China’s Global Security Initiative Takes Shape in Southeast and Central Asia
Since Chinese leader Xi Jinping launched the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in April 2022, it has been used in China’s efforts to expand its international security role and reshape global order. Drawing on field research and discussions with regional policymakers and experts, this report looks at Beijing’s progress in implementing and operationalizing the GSI in the priority regions of mainland Southeast Asia and Central Asia, and it examines key policy implications, explaining why the initiative warrants greater attention on the part of the US policy community.
U.S. Concerns Over ‘Axis of Authoritarianism’ Cloud Final Biden-Xi Meeting
With President Joe Biden’s presidential term ending in a few weeks, expectations for his final meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping were modest, especially considering the broader frictions in U.S.-China relations. Biden and Xi met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru on November 16. The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining open communications channels to manage the two powers’ many differences.
A Public Perceptions Survey of China in Venezuela
This discussion paper presents and analyzes original data gathered in June 2023 on Venezuelan perceptions of China and the United States. The results show that China’s standing in Venezuela has declined in absolute terms and relative to the United States, which is commensurate with trends elsewhere in Latin America. Furthermore, it suggests the orientation of Venezuela’s foreign policy—including forging close ties to China and alienating the United States—is inconsistent with Venezuelan public preferences. Venezuelans, however, are not fully satisfied with the policy approach of either China or the United States toward Venezuela.
Why Early Warnings Are Critical for Climate Action and Conflict Prevention
Amid a changing climate, understanding the interplay between extreme environmental events and conflict is only growing more important. Droughts, floods and other natural disasters can exacerbate socioeconomic vulnerabilities, highlight weaknesses in governance, disrupt livelihoods and increase perceptions of marginalization.
Georges Fauriol on the Ouster of Haiti’s Interim Prime Minister
In firing the country’s interim prime minister, Haiti’s transition presidential council “generated a fair amount of concern” over whether the country could stabilize governance to meet the timeline for elections in early 2026, says USIP’s Georges Fauriol, adding: “The outlook doesn’t look all that positive.”
What to Know About Palau’s Election: Taiwan, China and Other Key Issues
After Palau held its presidential election on November 5, incumbent President Surangel Whipps Jr. was announced as the winner this week. Palau — an archipelago of more than 300 islands to the east of the Philippines and southwest of Guam — is one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic partners in the region and has seen an increasing U.S. military presence in recent years, making it a focal point for competition between the United States and China. Palau gained independence from the United States in 1994 and has maintained a close relationship with Washington ever since under the Compact of Free Association.