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A Uyghur separatist group that helped to topple the government of Bashar al Assad has declared its intention to return to Xinjiang in order to conduct military operations against the People's Republic of China. The announcement suggests that Washington and its allies are preparing to open another front in a war that has already plunged... Read More
From energy resources to economic growth, the region holds key assets for US foreign policy, trade, and security interests When President-elect Donald Trump starts his second term January 20, he will face a full foreign policy agenda, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, Taiwan tensions, and looming trade disputes with China, Mexico, and... Read More
Last week, I sent this Wikihow article to Medvedev. He’s clearly read it and taken it seriously. There are a lot of Westerners who do not understand why there are so many central Asians in Moscow. I have seen people who I know for a fact are State Department activists attempting to sell anti-Russian sentiment... Read More
Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban just announced the country will re-open its embassy in Muscat, Oman. This follows the United Arab Emirates’ acceptance of the credentials of the Afghan ambassador in August. And in January, Chinese leader Xi Jinping personally accepted the credentials of the Afghan ambassador to Beijing. (China’s new ambassador to Afghanistan was officially received... Read More
Ahmad Massoud, the leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, recently declared he will defeat the Taliban “no matter the odds.” For Massoud to mount a military threat to the Taliban, he would need the cooperation of the Central Asian republics, Iran or Pakistan (among others) to do the job. However, Afghanistan’s neighbors have... Read More
Afghanistan and Uzbekistan strengthen trade ties with new agreements, including the Termez International Trade Center and the UAP Railway Project. Trade between Afghanistan and its neighbors, including Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, is growing rapidly, with projects like the TAPI Gas Pipeline and Trans-Afghan Corridor. Potential challenges include regional instability, U.S. sanctions, and internal Afghan political... Read More
A delegation from Uzbekistan visited Washington, D.C. to advocate for the repeal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment and establish normal trade relations with the U.S. U.S. legislation is being introduced to grant permanent normal trade relations status to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. The U.S. has been less proactive in Central Asia compared to China and Russia,... Read More
The Middle Corridor is a multimodal transport corridor connecting China to Europe. Europe’s limited prospects are opposed to Asia which will see an increasing share of global GDP rising from about 45% today to around 58% by 2030. The republics will use the Middle Corridor to increase trade with Europe, but can’t ignore their neighbors... Read More
The whole Russia-Taliban affair involves a humongous package – encompassing oil, gas, minerals and loads of rail connectivity. This past Sunday in Doha, I had a meeting with three high-level representatives of the Taliban Political Office in Qatar, including a founding member of the body (in 2012) and a key official of the previous Taliban... Read More
“The unity of Russia’s multiethnic society,” President Vladimir Putin told the Russian Trade Union Congress on Thursday, “is the main fundamental condition of our success. In this connection, and based on the initial results of the investigation, we have grounds to believe that the main goal of those who masterminded the bloody and heinous terrorist... Read More
Though Iran is famous (or infamous) for its growing suite of weapons, recently the Islamic Republic has been making progress in civil aerospace. Iran Observer recently reported that Iran mastered the single crystal turbine blade technology of the CFM56-5B series aircraft engine, widely used in many Boeing and Airbus aircraft. Single-crystal technology, which is highly... Read More
Kabul’s key asset is its location but it needs to make a positive contribution to the region by being a good neighbor. The best way forward for Kabul is to keep the Islamic State et al. boxed in, which may require intelligence sharing and cooperation with the neighbors and the U.S. to secure the country... Read More
On Feb. 18 and 19, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres convened a meeting in Doha, Qatar, to discuss the “evolving situation” in Afghanistan and future engagement with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Taliban declined an invitation to the meeting after the U.N. refused their conditions, including recognizing the Taliban as the legitimate government of... Read More
In January 2024, Chinese president Xi Jinping accepted the credentials of the ambassador of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban) to China. And in September 2023 China was the first country to name a new ambassador to the Islamic Emirate since August 2021. Today, over a dozen countries maintain diplomatic representation in Kabul, though... Read More
While the U.S., Russia and Europe are trying to quell (or aggravate) crises simultaneously in Ukraine, Iraq, Syria, Israel/Gaza, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea/Yemen, Uzbekistan and China have quietly elevated their partnership. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev made a state visit to China on Jan. 23-25, visiting Beijing and Shenzen. While there he met... Read More
Israel’s counterattack on the Gaza Strip, in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attack by the Islamic Resistance Movement (“Hamas”), has caused allegedly 20,000 deaths among Palestinian civilians. Every country in the Muslim world has seen popular rejection of Israel’s assault, and the Central Asian republics are no exception. The Central Asian people identify with their... Read More
While the dogs of war bark, lie and steal, the Russia-China caravan strolls on. 2023 may be defined for posterity as The Year of the Russia-China Strategic Partnership. This wonder of wonders could easily sway under a groove by – who else – Stevie Wonder: “Here I am baby/ signed, sealed, delivered, I’m yours.” In... Read More
TURKISTAN – As geopolitical insanity zooms off the charts at the end of 2023, let us seek solace in a brief Silk Road magic carpet ride. This comes to you from a northern strand of the Ancient Silk Roads in Kazakhstan, from the Ili valley in Western China through the Dzungarian Gate all the way... Read More
Since independence in 1991, the Central Asian republics have had an up and down relationship with the American monitors of worldwide religious freedom, the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) and the U.S. State Department Office of International Religious Freedom. In its 2023 report, USCIRF criticized four of the five Central Asian republics,... Read More
The destruction of Nordstream is the key to understanding how Washington plans to deal with China. The pipeline effectively erased the geographic borders between Russia and Germany creating a de facto free trade zone that spanned the continents and increased the prosperity of both trading partners. The arrangement anticipated a much larger commons area that... Read More
It was a day 32 years in the making, but the American president finally met the assembled leaders of the five Central Asian republics on the sidelines of the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly. According to the White House, President Biden welcomed discussion on strengthening the republics’ “sovereignty, resilience, and prosperity” while... Read More
The American filmmaker Woody Allen said, ““Eighty percent of success is showing up.” If he is correct, America is not succeeding in Central Asia. But the rulers of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and China, Xi Jinping, leave nothing to chance: Xj has visited every one of the republics and has been to Kazakhstan four times and... Read More
Samarkand, Uzbekistan - The historical Heartland – or Central Eurasia – already is, and will continue to be, the prime battlefield in the New Great Game, fought between the United States and the China-Russia strategic partnership. The original Great Game pitted the British and Russian empires in the late 19th century, and in fact, never... Read More
Bukhara The Noble, the “Dome of Islam”, with a history stretching back 2.500 years, bears too many marvels to mention: from the two-millennia-old Ark, a fortress around which the city developed, to the 48-meter high Kalon minaret, built in 1127, which so impressed Genghis Khan that he ordered it not to be razed. The elegant,... Read More
Uzbekistan held a snap election for president on 9 July 2023, and the voters went to the polls and returned the incumbent, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, to the job with 87.05 % vote (on an 80.12% turnout). The vote gives Mirziyoyev, in office since 2016, a seven-year term. The recently approved constitution lengthened presidential terms from 5... Read More
The Central Asian republics are self-organizing in the wake of the NATO evacuation from Afghanistan in August 2021. The republics are wedged between Russia, China, Iran, and Afghanistan, and are pursing multi-vector foreign policies to ensure economic growth, and to ensure they can navigate among the local powers, and the U.S. and Europe, even though... Read More
In the summer of 2023, the Taliban implemented the ban on opium poppy decreed by supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzadain in April 2022. The Taliban told the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) they banned poppy cultivation because of the harmful effects of opium and because it violates their religious beliefs, despite the 2022 crop being “the most... Read More
Instead of being “Being Fustest with the Mostest” in Central Asia, an area of intense interest to China and Russia, the U.S. and Europe may be “too little, too late.” The dwindling relevance of Washington and Brussels to Central Asia was on display when Chinese leader Xi Jinping hosted the leaders of the five Central... Read More
Cue to the China-Central Asia summit last week in Xian, the former imperial capital, where Xi solidified the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from Western China in Xinjiang to its western neighbors and then all the way to Iran, Turkey and Eastern Europe. Xi in Xian particularly stressed the complementing aspects between... Read More
Let’s start with a graphic depiction of where the Global North and the Global South really stand. 1. Xian, former imperial capital, and key hub of the Ancient Silk Roads: Xi Jinping hosts the China-Central Asia summit, attended by all Heartland “stans” (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgzystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan). The final statement stresses economic cooperation and “a... Read More
The leaders of the Central Asian republics have cordial relations with Putin and Xi and know their limitations. Turkmenistan’s Central Asian neighbors may not be concerned, but Iran will see the presence of more Americans and Israelis in the area as a prelude to an attack on its nuclear research centers. Both Turkmenistan and the... Read More
April has been a signal time for Afghanistan. First, the foreign ministers of China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran met in Samarkand, Uzbekistan about alleviating Afghanistan’s economic crisis. Then, the Taliban government announced the Chinese mining company Gochin would invest up to $10 billion USD to mine the country’s lithium reserves, and would assist developing other... Read More
March 2023 will be remembered as a good month for the Islamic Republic of Iran. First, Iran and longtime foe, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, announced they would re-establish full diplomatic relations and reopen embassies within sixty days, thanks to China’s mediation (and Iraq’s and Oman’s early efforts). The news was followed by the Saudi... Read More
Amidst serious tremors in the world of geopolitics, it is so fitting that this year’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) heads of state summit should have taken place in Samarkand – the ultimate Silk Road crossroads for 2,500 years. When in 329 BC Alexander the Great reached the then Sogdian city of Marakanda, part of the... Read More
SAMARKAND – Interconnecting Inner Eurasia is an exercise in Taoist equilibrium: adding piece by piece, patiently, to a gigantic jigsaw puzzle. It takes time, skill, vision, and of course major breakthroughs. A key piece was added to the puzzle recently in Uzbekistan, bolstering the links between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the International... Read More
It’s tempting to visualize the overwhelming collective West debacle as a rocket, faster than free fall, plunging into the black void maelstrom of complete socio-political breakdown. The End of (Their) History turns out to be a fast-forward historical process bearing staggering ramifications: way more profound than mere self-appointed “elites” – via their messenger boys/girls –... Read More
SAMARKAND – The ultimate Silk Road city, set at an unrivaled Eurasian trade crossroads, is the ideal spot from which to examine where the New Silk Roads adventure is heading next. For starters, the upcoming summit of heads of state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will take place in Samarkand in mid-September. The ancient... Read More
KONYA – Mystic poet, Sufi, theosophist, and thinker, Jalal al-Din Rumi remains one of the most beloved historical personalities in history, east and west. A wanderer in search of the light, he famously characterized himself thus: “I am nothing more than a humble lover of God.” The era of Rumi’s father – Sultan Bahaeddin Veled... Read More
The meeting of the SCO Ministerial Council in Tashkent this past Friday involved some very serious business. That was the key preparatory reunion previous to the SCO summit in mid-September in fabled Samarkand, where the SCO will release a much-awaited “Declaration of Samarkand”. What happened in Tashkent was predictably unreported across the collective West and... Read More
The War of Economic Corridors is now proceeding full speed ahead, with the game-changing first cargo flow of goods from Russia to India via the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) already in effect. Very few, both in the east and west, are aware of how this actually has long been in the making: the... Read More
The year 2022 started with Kazakhstan on fire, a serious attack against one of the key hubs of Eurasian integration. We are only beginning to understand what and how it happened. On Monday morning, leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) held an extraordinary session to discuss Kazakhstan. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev framed it... Read More
So is that much fear and loathing all about gas? Not really. Kazakhstan was rocked into chaos virtually overnight, in principle, because of the doubling of prices for liquefied gas, which reached the (Russian) equivalent of 20 rubles per liter (compare it to an average of 30 rubles in Russia itself). That was the spark... Read More
Breaking news coming through: Vaccines are safe and effective and offer complete protection from the Omicron virus. Trans women are women. The behavior of black people is the result of white racism. A woman can do anything a man can do – better. The US has no involvement in the color revolution in Kazakhstan. Stay... Read More
Just as the Kremlin had steeled itself to face down the West over Ukraine, Washington initiated the destabilization of Kazakhstan on Russia’s central Asian border. At this time it is unclear how serious the situation is, but the Collective Security Treaty Organization consisting of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, and Kazakhstan have sent troops in... Read More
Afghanistan was at the heart of the 17th Extraordinary Session of the Council of Foreign Ministers representing 57 nations at the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). It was up to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan to deliver the keynote address to the session, held on 19 December at the Parliament House in Islamabad. And he... Read More
The Eurasian chessboard is in non-stop motion at dizzying speed. After the Afghanistan shock, we’re all aware of the progressive interconnection of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and of the preeminent roles played by Russia, China and Iran. These are the pillars of the... Read More
Something quite extraordinary happened in early November in Kabul. Taliban interim-Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov got together to discuss a range of political and economic issues. Most importantly, they resurrected the legendary soap opera which in the early 2000s I dubbed Pipelineistan: the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. Call it... Read More
In the mid-1980s, Soviet officials saw a need to open up their economy in hope of achieving Western-style innovation and productivity. That was the decade in which Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were sponsoring the neoliberal pro-financial policies that have polarised the U.S., British and other economies and loaded them down with rentier overhead. The... Read More
It was bound to happen: the remixed Saigon moment at Kabul airport and the stunning comeback of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, led by Pashtuns, has unleashed across the West a cheap Orientalization avalanche. The whole of Afghanistan is now “threatened” by the return of the “barbarians.” Once again, Afghan women need to be protected,... Read More
Over a week ago the excruciatingly slow Doha peace talks between the Kabul government and the Taliban resumed, and then they dragged on for two days observed by envoys from the EU, US and UN. Nothing happened. They could not even agree on a ceasefire during Eid al-Adha. Worse, there’s no road map for how... Read More