Lost in Singapore

Some analyses are found only on the internet to speculate that “New Citizen” changed Singapore General Election result in 2015. Votes for PAP was 60.14% in 2011, but 69.86% in 2015.They claim that 10% swing for PAP be caused by the new citizen increase. New citizens thank PAP, so they must have voted for PAP, which caused PAP big win in 2015. Is this true?

1. Vote shift from Opposition to PAP.

This is the simplest way to defy the speculation.
The votes for Opposition decreased from 800k in 2011 to 680k in 2015.

ELD: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS RESULTS

Just look at the number of Opposition votes. 120k decreased in the opposition votes. Though new citizens thanking PAP can increase PAP votes, they cannot decrease the number of opposition votes. Singaporean, who had voted for Opposition in 2011 shifted to PAP in 2015. This is the clear reason PAP won.

2. New citizen electors are 45k.

Granted new citizens from 2011 to 2014 are 77,390 in total. You can get the number of new citizen on “Population in Brief” created by Singapore government.
National Population and Talent division: Population in Brief
SPEECH BY MINISTER IN THE PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE, SECOND MINISTER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER RESOURCES AND SECOND MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, MS GRACE FU

It shows the age group only for 2013. 41.2% is 20 years and below. Electorates are only 58.8%.

When I apply 58.8% to the number of new citizen 77,390, the new citizen electorates are 45,505.
45k is 1.84% of all registered electors, 2,462,926. 1.84% is not enough to make 10% swing to PAP.
(Though I ignore electors who were minority when new citizens were granted, it’s not big number to change conclusion for this calculation. Even if all minorities are regarded as electors, 77,390 is 3.15% of all registered electors)

There is not necessary to consider the sum of new citizens after Singapore independent. This number is not published as far as I know. In addition, in 2011 opposition scored the historic win as 39.85% of valid votes, though there had been accumulated new citizens until 2011. So, it’s simple and clear way to compare results in 2011 and in 2015.

Conclusion: New citizens did not change the result for GE2015.