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Next Myanmar general election

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Next Myanmar general election
← 2020 (annulled) TBD
315 of the 440 seats in the Pyithu Hluttaw
221 seats needed for a majority
161 of the 224 seats in the Amyotha Hluttaw
113 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Khin Yi
Party USDP
Leader since 5 October 2022
Last election 26 R / 7 N
Incumbent President

Min Aung Hlaing (acting)
Military



Politics of Myanmar
Constitution
Government
Legislature (dissolved)
Judiciary
Recent elections
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations
Exiled government
Related topics
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Myanmar's military government plans to hold a general election for elected seats in the Amyotha Hluttaw and the Pyithu Hluttaw of the Assembly of the Union, currently dissolved, at an unspecified time in the future. The planned election would be the first after the 2021 military coup d'état. Though military ruler Min Aung Hlaing initially promised to hold the election by August 2023, the military has since indefinitely delayed the election in the face of increasing violence.[1][2][3][4]

Since the coup, the military has ruled the country under a state of emergency, initially declared by Acting President Myint Swe for one year and extended six times by six-month periods, currently set to expire on 1 February 2025.[5][6][7] The constitution requires elections be held within six months of the end of the state of emergency. The military is expected to seek legitimacy for its extended rule through the election, which is expected to be neither free nor fair.[8][9][10][11][12] A census is being conducted in October 2024 in anticipation of a possible 2025 election date.

In January 2023, the military enacted a new electoral law tightening the requirements for party registration, banning the participation of people convicted of a crime including Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint, and switching from a first-past-the-post to a proportional system. Analysts see the changes as intended to improve the electoral performance of the military proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party, which performed poorly in the free and fair 2020 election. Most opposition to the USDP will be seriously weakened under the new rules. Added to the previously existing 25% reserved seats to the military, the switch to proportional representation would allow it to govern with just over a third of the popular vote.[13][14][15] The National League for Democracy, which was removed from power in the coup, announced in February 2023 that it would not register under the new law, and was declared dissolved by the election commission the following month.[16][17] The second-largest opposition party, the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, similarly announced it would not participate in the election.[18][19]

Background

[edit]

Myanmar, previously known as Burma, has been under a dictatorship for the majority of its independent history. First, under Ne Win and his Burma Socialist Programme Party, and then under a military junta. In the early 2010s, Myanmar transitioned into a state of semi-democracy, finally culminating in the 2015 elections, where democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi became State Counsellor, and her party the National League for Democracy won a landslide victory.[20]

2020 election performance

[edit]

On the eve of the November 2020 election, Min Aung Hlaing publicly questioned the legitimacy of the upcoming 2020 election.[21] After casting his ballot, he vowed to accept the election results.[22] In the 2020 general elections, the NLD won another landslide over the Tatmadaw (military)-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which lost additional seats in both chambers of the national legislature. Domestic and international election observers deemed the election results credible, noting no major irregularities.[23][24]

Nonetheless, the military claimed the vote was fraudulent, citing 8.6 million irregularities in voter lists.[25] On 28 January 2021, the Union Election Commission rejected the military's fraud allegations, unable to corroborate the military's claims.[25]

2021 military coup

[edit]

On 1 February 2021, the military launched a coup. Suu Kyi was detained, along with President Win Myint, and other key individuals. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing took power, organizing a junta called the State Administration Council (SAC). Myint Swe was declared interim President, and a state of emergency was declared for one year. In late February, the SAC unveiled a five-point roadmap, with the ultimate goal of holding "a free and fair multiparty democracy election."[26]

Aung San Suu Kyi received a number of frivolous charges, including breaching emergency COVID-19 laws, illegally importing and using walkie-talkies, violating the National Disaster Law,[27] violating communications laws, inciting public unrest, and violating the official secrets act.[28][29] On 6 December 2021, she was sentenced to four years in prison, but Min Aung Hlaing commuted her sentence to two years. Her conviction complicates her ability to hold public office.[30]

On 1 August 2021, Min Aung Hlaing formed a caretaker government, and declared himself Prime Minister, whilst remaining the Chairman of the SAC.[31]

The Tatmadaw originally promised to hold the elections when the state of emergency expired on 1 February 2022, but pushed back the elections first to 2023, and the delayed them indefinitely.

Dissolution of the NLD

[edit]

On 21 May 2021, the junta-appointed Union Election Commission announced plans to permanently dissolve the National League for Democracy.[32] NLD offices were occupied and raided by police authorities, starting on 2 February.[33] Documents, computers and laptops were forcibly seized, and the NLD called these raids unlawful.[33] On 9 February, police raided the NLD headquarters in Yangon.[34] Aung San Suu Kyi has commented on the possibility of her party's forced dissolution saying, "Our party grew out of the people so it will exist as long as people support it."[35]

In January 2022, the junta reversed its plan to dissolve the NLD, with spokesman Zaw Min Tun saying that the NLD will decide whether to stand in the 2023 election.[36] In February 2023, the NLD announced it would not re-register as a political party under a strict new electoral law enacted by the junta the previous month.[16] The electoral commission automatically disbanded NLD, along with 39 other parties, on 28 March 2023.[37]

Electoral system

[edit]
A ballot paper in 2020

Previously, Myanmar has exclusively used the first-past-the-post system, in which a candidate needs only a plurality of votes in a constituency to be elected. On 16 June 2022, Khin Maung Oo, a member of the Union Election Commission, said at a press conference in Naypyidaw that the country will use a proportional representation system instead for the next election.[38]

Existing system

[edit]

In the existing system, the national legislature, the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw consists of a total of 498 seats elected in single-member constituencies, and 166 seats reserved for military appointees.

The Pyithu Hluttaw, or House of Representatives, is elected every five years. It is the lower house. It has 440 MPs, 330 of which are elected in single-member constituencies, one for each township. A further 110 members (one quarter) are appointed by the Tatmadaw.

The Amyotha Hluttaw, or House of Nationalities, is elected every five years. It is the upper house. It has 224 MPs, 168 of which are elected in single-member constituencies, 12 in each state or region. A further 56 members (one quarter) are appointed by the Tatmadaw.

In Myanmar, it is not uncommon for elections to be cancelled partially or completely in some constituencies due to insurrection.

After the new legislators take office, the President and the two Vice Presidents of Myanmar are elected by the Presidential Electoral College, made up of MPs from three committees: one of elected members from each house of the Assembly of the Union, and one from the military-appointed members. Each committee recommends one candidate, and the Assembly then holds a vote. The position the candidates are elected to depends on their overall vote total (the highest vote-getter becomes President, while the second-highest becomes First Vice President, and the remaining candidate becomes Second Vice President).

People married to a non-Burmese citizen and/or who have children without Burmese citizenship are barred from being elected to any presidential position. This requirement has been criticized by some as being an attempt to disqualify Suu Kyi. Her late husband was a British citizen, so she was ineligible to be President. Instead, she became State Counsellor, and President Win Myint was seen as her puppet.

Revisions to the existing system

[edit]

In December 2021, the junta-appointed Union Electoral Commission convened with 60 political parties on the electoral system. The cohort determined that it would be advisable to switch to a system of party-list proportional representation (PR). The largest remainder method will be used, and the lists will be closed, although there may be a switch to open lists "when the level of education of the electorate and the political tide rises". The townships will be merged into districts for constituencies.[39][40]

Observers and anti-junta factions have criticized the change in electoral system for politically motivated, aimed at increasing the junta's electoral performance.[41][42][43] In 2014, the Amyotha Hluttaw had previously approved a switch to the PR system, but it was not pursued further by the Pyithu Hluttaw for being "unconstitutional."[43] The PR system also implies larger multi-member constituencies, which could enable the military to avoid having to cancel elections in insecure regions.[8]

On 26 January 2023, the military junta issued the Political Parties Registration Law to force political parties to re-register within 60 days, or face automatic dissolution.[8] The law also introduced new financial (possessing at least US$35,000 in funds), party membership (having 100,000 members, an increase from 1,000), and logistical requirements (contesting half of all constituencies and operating party offices in half of all townships), effectively aimed at limiting electoral participation to few national parties like the USDP.[8] The NLD and SNLD, and 38 other parties were both disbanded by the law on 28 March.

Conduct

[edit]

The Union Election Commission (UEC) organises and oversees in Myanmar. During the 2021 coup, Hla Thein, the civilian-appointed UEC chair was arrested by military authorities, and subsequently sentenced to prison.[44] The military junta replaced him with Thein Soe, a former military general who had previously overseen the 2010 Myanmar general election.[45] Some have expressed concerns about the Tatmadaw's willingness to hold free and fair elections.

Although the past three elections in Myanmar have been semi-free,[46] there have been concerns over such things as irregularities in voter lists, misinformation, fake news, and the vilification of Burmese Muslims. In addition, under the military-designed 2008 Constitution, the military is effectively guaranteed one vice presidency, and a quarter of the seats in both chambers of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, veto power over voter-elected legislators, as well as a third of the seats in all state and regional Hluttaws, and key ministries.[47]

Some members of the NLD dominated Pyidaungsu Hluttaw elected in 2020 have formed an anti-cabinet known as the National Unity Government of Myanmar. The NUG claims to be the legitimate government of Myanmar, and the junta and the NUG consider each other terrorist groups.[48] The coup has since escalated into a Myanmar civil war (2021–present) between the Armed Forces, and the NUG's People's Defence Force and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), resulting in thousands of military and civilian casualties, and the displacement of an additional 1.7 million people as of November 2022.[49][50][51][52] This, along with ongoing ethnic conflicts, means the vote will likely be cancelled in some constituencies, and may not be secure in others.

The planned election may trigger an escalation in violence, due to widespread public opposition.[8] Since January 2023, resistance forces have attacked and killed individuals associated with the planned election, including local administrators gathering data for voter lists.[8] On 29 January, the NUG declared that individuals cooperating with the election would be deemed "accomplices of high treason."[8] Major EAOs, including the Chin National Front, Karenni National Progressive Party, Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Organisation, and the Ta-ang National Liberation Army, have also criticised the planned election.[8]

Timing

[edit]

The election date has not been officially announced. The Constitution requires that elections be held within six months of the end of a declared state of emergency, which the military has extended repeatedly since the 2021 coup.[8]

In addition to ongoing security concerns, the election date may have also been delayed to forestall infighting within the Burmese military leadership around succession planning.[8] It remains unclear if Min Aung Hlaing will remain commander-in-chief or seek the presidency, and whether he can appoint a loyal candidate to either role, since the Constitution does not permit him to assume both.[8]

After the sixth extension of the state of emergency in August 2024, Min Aung Hlaing announced that a census would be held between October 1 and 15 prior to a potential 2025 election.[53] The census began as scheduled on October 1.[54]

Reactions

[edit]

In March 2023, the governments of the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, France, Germany, and Australia strongly condemned the military junta's dissolution of the NLD and other political parties, expressing serious concerns on whether the planned elections can be free and fair.[55] The German government posited that the junta's moves threaten to escalate violence in the country, and further destabilise the country.[55] Japan's ministry of foreign affairs called for the release of all NLD officials, and noted the NLD's exclusion will hamper attempts to peacefully improve the country's political situation.[55][56] Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade characterised the junta's moves as a "further narrowing of political space in Myanmar." The European Union reiterated its support for ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus.[57]

Political parties

[edit]
See also: List of political parties in Myanmar

The table below lists parties that managed to elect representatives to the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw in 2020 that have registered to contest the next election.[58][16] Most parties in Myanmar represent one of the country's many ethnic minorities.

Name Ideology Leader 2020 result (of elected seats)
Pyithu Amyotha
USDP Union Solidarity and Development Party
ပြည်ထောင်စုကြံ့ခိုင်ရေးနှင့် ဖွံ့ဖြိုးရေးပါတီ 		Pro-Tatmadaw
Burmese nationalism[59]
Social conservatism[60] 		Khin Yi
26 / 330
7 / 168
PNO Pa-O National Organisation
ပအိုဝ်း အမျိုးသား အဖွဲ့ချုပ် 		Pa'O interests Aung Kham Hti
3 / 330
1 / 168
MUP Mon Unity Party
မွန်ညီညွတ်ရေးပါတီ 		Mon interests Han Shwe
2 / 330
3 / 168
KSPP Kachin State People's Party
ကချင်ပြည်နယ်ပြည်သူ့ပါတီ 		Kachin regionalism n/a
1 / 330
0 / 168
AFP Arakan Front Party
ရခိုင့်ဦးဆောင်ပါတီ 		Arakanese self-determination Aye Maung
1 / 330
0 / 168
WNP Wa National Party
‘ဝ’အမျိုးသားပါတီ 		Wa interests Nyi Palot
1 / 330
0 / 168
ZCD Zomi Congress for Democracy
ဇိုမီး ဒီမိုကရေစီအဖွဲ့ချုပ် 		Zomi interests
Liberal democracy 		Chin Sian Thang
1 / 330
0 / 168
NDP New Democracy Party
ဒီမိုကရေစီပါတီသစ် 		Liberal democracy
Kachin regionalism 		San Khaung
0 / 330
1 / 168
2020 total results 39 / 330
(11.9% of seats) 		16 / 168
(9.5% of seats)

The table below lists political parties that were dissolved by the junta, including the NLD and SNLD, that won 88% of the national parliamentary seats in the 2020 election.[61]

Name Ideology Leader 2020 result (of elected seats)
Pyithu Amyotha
ANP Arakan National Party
ရခိုင်အမျိုးသားပါတီ 		Rakhine nationalism Thar Tun Hla
4 / 330
4 / 168
NLD National League for Democracy
အမျိုးသား ဒီမိုကရေစီ အဖွဲ့ချုပ် 		Liberalism Aung San Suu Kyi
258 / 330
138 / 168
SNLD Shan Nationalities League for Democracy
ရှမ်းတိုင်းရင်းသားများ ဒီမိုကရေစီ အဖွဲ့ချုပ် 		Shan interests Hkun Htun Oo
13 / 330
2 / 168
TNP Ta'ang National Party
တအာင်းအမျိုးသားပါတီ 		Ta'ang interests Aik Mone
3 / 330
2 / 168
KySDP Kayah State Democratic Party
ကယားပြည်နယ်ဒီမိုကရေစီပါတီ 		Karenni interests Po Re
2 / 330
3 / 168
2020 total results 276 / 330
(83.6% of seats) 		145 / 168
(86.3% of seats)

References

[edit]
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