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2024 United States presidential election in Nevada

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Nevada
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout72.84%[1] (Decrease 5.38%)
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 751,205 705,197
Percentage 50.59% 47.49%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Nevada
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Special elections
State government
General
Gubernatorial
Nevada Attorney General
Nevada Senate
Nevada Assembly
Ballot measures
2002, 2016, and 2024
Henderson
Mayoral
Las Vegas
Mayoral
North Las Vegas
Mayoral
Reno
Mayoral

None of These Candidates

flag Nevada portal

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, participated. Nevada voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census, in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Despite Trump, who was running under the Republican banner a third consecutive time, not carrying Nevada in either of his past two presidential campaigns, polling in the state showed Trump in a strong position to win the state against Biden, with Trump leading Biden in all major polls on Nevada's voting intention from October 2023 until Biden's withdrawal in July 2024. The Silver State also elected a Republican governor in 2022. However, Kamala Harris, from neighboring California, had polled somewhat better since becoming the Democratic nominee. The state was rated as a tossup by nearly all major news organizations.[3]

Despite more competitive polling after Harris entered the race, Trump won Nevada, defeating Harris by over three percentage points and becoming the first Republican to win the state since George W. Bush in 2004. Trump's gains with Latino and Filipino voters were crucial to him flipping the state[4][5], and his 750,000 votes set a new record for votes cast for any candidate in state history.

Background

[edit]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for re-election to a second term,[6] but withdrew from the election on July 21, 2024.[7] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[8] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March,[9] but later announced on August 23, 2024, that he was suspending his campaign in swing states, including Nevada.[10]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Nevada Democratic presidential primary

The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.

Nevada Democratic primary, February 6, 2024[11]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 119,758 89.3% 36 36
None of These Candidates 7,448 5.6%
Marianne Williamson 4,101 3.1%
Gabriel Cornejo 811 0.6%
Jason Palmer 530 0.4%
Frankie Lozada 315 0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato 264 0.2%
John Haywood 241 0.2%
Stephen Lyons 147 0.1%
Superpayaseria Crystalroc 133 0.1%
Donald Picard 124 0.1%
Brent Foutz 93 0.1%
Stephen Alan Leon 89 0.1%
Mark R. Prascak 33 <0.1%
Total: 134,087 100% 36 13 49

Republican nominating contests

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Nevada Republican presidential nominating contests

Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary were not included in determining delegate allocation.

Nevada Republican primary, February 6, 2024[12]
Candidate Votes Percentage
None of These Candidates[13] 50,763 63.26%
Nikki Haley 24,583 30.63%
Mike Pence (withdrawn) 3,091 3.85%
Tim Scott (withdrawn) 1,081 1.35%
John Anthony Castro 270 0.34%
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn) 200 0.25%
Donald Kjornes 166 0.21%
Heath V. Fulkerson 95 0.12%
Total: 80,249 100.00%
Nevada Republican caucus, February 8, 2024[14]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 59,982 99.11% 25 1[a] 26
Ryan Binkley 540 0.89% 0 0 0
Total 60,522 100.00% 25 1 26

General election

[edit]

Voting law changes

[edit]

By 2022, every voter gets a mail-in ballot unless they opt-out and eligible voters are automatically registered after common transactions at the DMV.[15]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Tossup November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Lean D November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[18] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNN[19] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNalysis[20] Tilt D November 4, 2024
The Economist[21] Tossup November 4, 2024
538[22] Tossup November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[23] Tossup November 3, 2024
NBC News[24] Tossup November 4, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270ToWin[25] October 22 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 47.6% 48.2% 4.2% Trump +0.6%
538[26] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 47.4% 47.7% 4.8% Trump +0.3%
Silver Bulletin[27] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 47.9% 48.5% 3.6% Trump +0.6%
The Hill/DDHQ[28] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 47.5% 49.2% 3.3% Trump +1.7%
Average 47.6% 48.3% 4.1% Trump +0.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[29] November 3–5, 2024 1,260 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 46% 7%
51.6%[d] 48.5% –
1,125 (LV) 48% 48% 4%
50.5%[d] 49.5% –
AtlasIntel[30] November 3–4, 2024 707 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 50% 3%
47% 50% 3%[e]
Patriot Polling[31] November 1–3, 2024 792 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
AtlasIntel[32] November 1–2, 2024 782 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 52% 2%[e]
46% 51% 3%
Emerson College[33] October 30 – November 2, 2024 840 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 48% 4%[f]
49%[d] 49% 1%[f]
New York Times/Siena College[34] October 24 – November 2, 2024 1,010 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 46% 6%
1,010 (LV) 49% 46% 5%
AtlasIntel[35] October 30–31, 2024 845 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% 2%
47% 51% 2%[g]
Emerson College[36][A] October 29–31, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 47% 5%[h]
49%[d] 48% 3%[h]
Noble Predictive Insights[37] October 28–31, 2024 593 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% 3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[38] October 28–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 50% 6%
YouGov[39][B] October 25–31, 2024 790 (RV) ± 4.6% 50% 49% 1%
773 (LV) 50% 49% 1%
Data for Progress (D)[40] October 25–30, 2024 721 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[41][C] October 25–30, 2024 767 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%[g]
AtlasIntel[42] October 25–29, 2024 1,083 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%
48% 48% 4%[g]
Trafalgar Group (R)[43] October 25–28, 2024 1,082 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 48% 4%[i]
CES/YouGov[44] October 1–25, 2024 940 (A) – 53% 44% 3%
933 (LV) 51% 47% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[45] October 20–21, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%[g]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[46] October 16–20, 2024 449 (RV) ± 5.0% 49% 48% 3%
420 (LV) 49% 48% 3%
AtlasIntel[47] October 12–17, 2024 1,171 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[48][D] October 8−15, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 49% 4%[j]
Morning Consult[49] October 6−15, 2024 496 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
Washington Post/Schar School[50] September 30 – October 15, 2024 652 (RV) ± 4.8% 47% 44% 9%
652 (LV) 48% 48% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[51][C] October 9–14, 2024 748 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%[i]
Trafalgar Group (R)[52] October 10–13, 2024 1,088 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 9%[k]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[53][E] October 6–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 50% 3%
Emerson College[54] October 5–8, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 47% 5%[l]
49%[d] 48% 3%[m]
Wall Street Journal[55] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 43% 49% 8%
RMG Research[56][F] September 30 – October 3, 2024 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 4%[n]
49%[d] 49% 2%[o]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[57][G] September 24 – October 2, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47% 8%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[58] September 29–30, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 1%[g]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[59][H] September 23–29, 2024 407 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 47% 5%
TIPP Insights[60][I] September 23−25, 2024 1,044 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 44% 8%
736 (LV) 49% 48% 3%
Quantus Insights (R)[61][J] September 23−25, 2024 628 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 49% 3%[p]
AtlasIntel[62] September 20–25, 2024 858 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 48% 1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[63] September 19–25, 2024 409 (LV) – 48% 47% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[64] September 19–25, 2024 574 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
516 (LV) 52% 45% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[65][C] September 19−22, 2024 738 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%
Remington Research Group (R)[66][K] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%
The Tarrance Group (R)[67][L] September 16–19, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 44% 9%[q]
Emerson College[68] September 15–18, 2024 895 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 48% 4%[r]
49%[d] 49% 2%[r]
Morning Consult[49] September 9−18, 2024 474 (LV) ± 5.0% 51% 47% 2%
Noble Predictive Insights[69] September 9−16, 2024 812 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 45% 7%
692 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 47% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[70] September 11–13, 2024 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 44% 11%[s]
Morning Consult[49] August 30 – September 8, 2024 516 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
Patriot Polling[71] September 1–3, 2024 788 (RV) – 47% 47% 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[72] August 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% 5%[t]
Emerson College[73] August 25–28, 2024 1,168 (LV) ± 2.8% 49% 48% 3%[u]
49%[d] 49% 1%[v]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] August 23–26, 2024 416 (LV) ± 5.0% 50% 46% 4%
450 (RV) 49% 45% 6%
Fox News[75] August 23–26, 2024 1,026 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% 2%[g]
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
Rasmussen Reports (R)[76][M] August 13–18, 2024 980 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6%
Focaldata[77] August 6–16, 2024 678 (LV) ± 3.8% 54% 46% –
New York Times/Siena College[78] August 12–15, 2024 677 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 48% 6%
677 (LV) 47% 48% 5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[79] July 26 – August 8, 2024 403 (LV) – 45% 48% 7%
August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[80][N] July 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 46% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[81] July 24–28, 2024 454 (RV) ± 5.0% 47% 45% 7%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 18, 2024 Republican National Convention concludes
InsiderAdvantage (R)[82] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 50% 10%
July 15, 2024 Republican National Convention begins
July 13, 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[83] May 7–13, 2024 459 (RV) ± 5.0% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College[84] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 48% 13%
New York Times/Siena College[85] October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%
611 (LV) 42% 50% 8%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Jill
Stein[w]
Green 		Cornel
West[w]
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other/
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
Race to the WH[86] through November 2, 2024 November 3, 2024 47.9% 47.3% — — 1.2% 3.6% Harris +0.6%
270toWin[87] October 22 – November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 47.8% 47.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.8% Harris +0.4%
Average 47.9% 47.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 3.7% Harris +0.5%


Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West[w]
Independent 		Jill
Stein[w]
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[29] November 3–5, 2024 1,260 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 45% 2% 1% – 6%
50%[d] 46% 3% 1% – –
1,125 (LV) 48% 47% 2% 1% – 2%
49%[d] 48% 2% 1% – –
New York Times/Siena College[34] October 24 – November 2, 2024 1,010 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 44% – – 3% 6%
1,010 (LV) 48% 46% – – 2% 4%
Focaldata[88] October 3 – November 1, 2024 1,324 (LV) – 48% 47% – 0% 1% 4%
1,197 (RV) ± 2.7% 49% 45% – 0% 2% 4%
1,324 (A) – 48% 44% – 0% 2% 1%
Noble Predictive Insights[37] October 28–31, 2024 593 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% – – 0% 3%[x]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[89] October 28–31, 2024 690 (LV) – 47% 48% – 0% 1% 4%
YouGov[39][B] October 25–31, 2024 790 (RV) ± 4.6% 48% 47% 0% 0% – 5%
773 (LV) 48% 47% 0% 0% – 5%
Data for Progress (D)[40] October 25–30, 2024 721 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% – – 1% 3%[x]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[90] October 25–27, 2024 531 (LV) – 47% 47% – – 1% 6%
CNN/SSRS[91] October 21–26, 2024 683 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 48% – – 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[92] October 20–22, 2024 540 (LV) – 46% 47% – 0% 0% 7%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[93][O] October 19–22, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 50% – – 0% 3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[46] October 16–20, 2024 449 (RV) ± 5.0% 48% 47% – 0% 2% 3%
420 (LV) 48% 48% – 0% 1% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[94] October 16–18, 2024 529 (LV) – 46% 47% – 1% 1% 5%
AtlasIntel[47] October 12–17, 2024 1,171 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% – 2% 0% 2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[48][D] October 8−15, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 47% – – 1% 6%[j]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[95] October 12–14, 2024 838 (LV) – 47% 47% – 0% 1% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[96] September 27 – October 2, 2024 514 (LV) – 48% 47% – 1% 1% 3%
TIPP Insights[60][I] September 23−25, 2024 1,044 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 43% 1% 0% − 9%
736 (LV) 50% 49% 0% 0% − 1%
AtlasIntel[62] September 20–25, 2024 858 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 48% – 1% – –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[64] September 19–25, 2024 574 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 44% – 3% 4% 3%
516 (LV) 50% 44% – 2% 2% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[97] September 16–19, 2024 652 (LV) – 45% 45% – 0% 1% 9%
Noble Predictive Insights[69] September 9−16, 2024 812 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 43% – 0% 1% 10%[y]
692 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 47% – 0% 1% 5%[z]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[98] September 6–9, 2024 698 (LV) – 45% 46% – 1% 1% 7%
YouGov[99][B] August 23 – September 3, 2024 800 (RV) ± 4.7% 49% 46% 0% 1% – 4%[g]
CNN/SSRS[100] August 23–29, 2024 976 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% – 1% 1% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[101] August 25–28, 2024 490 (LV) – 47% 47% – 1% 0% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] August 23–26, 2024 416 (LV) ± 5.0% 48% 46% – 2% 3% 1%
450 (RV) 48% 45% – 2% 4% 1%
Fox News[75] August 23–26, 2024 1,026 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% 2% 1% 1% 2%[g]
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Wall Street Journal[55] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 42% 47% 0% 0% 0% 3% 8%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[59][H] September 23–29, 2024 407 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 47% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[76][M] August 13–18, 2024 980 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 46% 5% 0% 0% 1% 4%
Focaldata[77] August 6–16, 2024 678 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 42% 7% – 0% 1% 2%
678 (RV) 49% 39% 9% – 0% 1% 2%
678 (A) 49% 39% 9% – 0% 1% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[102] August 12–15, 2024 536 (LV) – 42% 43% 6% – 1% 1% 7%
New York Times/Siena College[78] August 12–15, 2024 677 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 45% 6% 0% 1% 1% 6%
677 (LV) 44% 46% 4% 0% 1% 1% 4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[79] July 26 – August 8, 2024 403 (LV) – 42% 47% 5% 0% 1% – 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[103] July 31 – August 3, 2024 470 (LV) – 40% 40% 5% – 1% 0% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[81] July 24–28, 2024 454 (RV) ± 5.0% 43% 43% 7% – 1% 3% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[104] July 22–24, 2024 435 (LV) – 43% 45% 5% – 1% 0% 6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Strategies 360[105] August 7–14, 2024 350 (RV) ± 5.2% 48% 42% 5% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[106] August 6–8, 2024 1,087 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 48% 3% 4%[aa]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[82] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 49% 9%
Emerson College[107][P] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 46% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[108][Q] July 5–12, 2024 761 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 50% 5%
Echelon Insights[109][R] July 1–8, 2024 402 (LV) ± 6.6% 41% 50% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[110] July 1–5, 2024 452 (RV) ± 5.0% 43% 48% 9%
Emerson College[111][P] June 30 – July 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 47% 12%
Remington Research Group (R)[112] June 29 – July 1, 2024 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 47% 13%
National Public Affairs[113] June 28 – July 1, 2024 817 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 49% 12%[ab]
Emerson College[114] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
50%[d] 50% –
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[115][D] June 12–18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 48% 7%
Fox News[116] June 1–4, 2024 1,069 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 50% 5%
The Tyson Group[117][S] May 22–25, 2024 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[118] May 19–21, 2024 522 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 50% 8%
494 (LV) 43% 51% 6%
Prime Group[119][T] May 9–16, 2024 468 (RV) – 50% 50% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[83] May 7–13, 2024 459 (RV) ± 5.0% 47% 47% 6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[120] May 6–13, 2024 402 (LV) ± 4.9% 40% 49% 11%
New York Times/Siena College[121] April 28 – May 9, 2024 614 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 50% 12%
614 (LV) 38% 51% 11%
Emerson College[122] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 45% 11%
49%[d] 51% –
John Zogby Strategies[123][U] April 13–21, 2024 517 (LV) – 44% 50% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[124] April 8–15, 2024 450 (RV) ± 5.0% 43% 51% 6%
Wall Street Journal[125] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 48% 8%
Echelon Insights[126][V] March 12–19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 5.8% 44% 51% 5%
Emerson College[127] March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 44% 15%
49%[d] 51% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[128] March 8–15, 2024 447 (RV) ± 5.0% 44% 46% 10%
Noble Predictive Insights[129] February 27 – March 5, 2024 829 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 45% 15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[130] February 12–20, 2024 445 (RV) ± 5.0% 42% 48% 10%
Emerson College[84] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 14%
Focaldata[131] January 17–23, 2024 704 (A) – 40% 43% 17%[ac]
– (LV) 42% 44% 14%[ad]
– (LV) 49%[d] 51% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132] January 16–21, 2024 457 (RV) ± 5.0% 40% 48% 12%
Emerson College[133] January 5–8, 2024 1,294 (RV) ± 2.6% 45% 47% 8%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[134] December 3–7, 2023 (RVs) – 40% 44% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[135] November 27 – December 6, 2023 451 (RV) ± 5.0% 44% 47% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[136] October 30 – November 7, 2023 437 (RV) ± 5.0% 43% 46% 11%
Emerson College[137] October 30 – November 4, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 46% 14%
New York Times/Siena College[85] October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 52% 7%
611 (LV) 41% 52% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[138] October 5–10, 2023 503 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% 11%
CNN[139] September 29 – October 3, 2023 1,251 (RV) ± 4.6% 46% 45% 9%
Vote TXT[140] May 15–19, 2023 412 (RV) – 41% 48% 11%
Prime Group[141][T] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 51% 49% –
39% 39% 22%[ae]
Noble Predictive Insights[142] April 18–26, 2023 613 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 40% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[143] April 17–20, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% 9%
OH Predictive Insights[144] January 30 – February 6, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 42% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[145][M] November 8–9, 2022 679 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 45% 14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[146][W] October 24–27, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 48% 5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[147][X] October 13–17, 2022 707 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 49% 14%
Emerson College[148] September 8–10, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 43% 17%
Emerson College[149] July 7–10, 2022 2,000 (RV) ± 2.1% 40% 43% 17%
Blueprint Polling (D)[150] March 21–24, 2022 671 (LV) ± 3.8% 34% 44% 22%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151] July 16–18, 2024 412 (LV) – 41% 44% 7% – 1% 7%[ab]
Emerson College[107][P] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 43% 7% 1% 1% 8%[af]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[108][Q] July 5–12, 2024 761 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 47% 8% 2% 1% 3%
YouGov[152][B] July 4–12, 2024 800 (RV) ± 4.7% 42% 46% 3% 0% 1% 8%
Echelon Insights[109][R] July 1–8, 2024 402 (LV) ± 6.6% 35% 45% 9% 2% 2% 7%[af]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[110] July 1–5, 2024 452 (RV) ± 5.0% 39% 45% 6% 2% 0% 8%[af]
National Public Affairs[113] June 28 – July 1, 2024 817 (LV) ± 3.4% 33% 42% 12% 3% 2% 8%
Emerson College[114] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 42% 7% 2% 2% 8%
Fox News[116] June 1–4, 2024 1,069 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 45% 7% 2% 2% 4%
The Tyson Group[117][Y] May 22–25, 2024 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 40% 9% 1% 2% 11%
Prime Group[119][T] May 9–16, 2024 468 (RV) – 43% 44% 10% 3% 0% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[83] May 7–13, 2024 459 (RV) ± 5.0% 39% 44% 7% 2% 1% 7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[120] May 6–13, 2024 402 (LV) ± 4.9% 35% 43% 10% 2% 3% 7%
New York Times/Siena College[121] April 28 – May 9, 2024 614 (RV) ± 4.0% 27% 41% 12% 0% 2% 18%[ag]
614 (LV) 30% 44% 11% 0% 1% 14%[ag]
Emerson College[122] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 42% 8% 2% 1% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[124] April 8–15, 2024 450 (RV) ± 5.0% 34% 48% 7% 2% 3% 6%
Wall Street Journal[125] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 33% 37% 15% 2% 2% 11%[ag]
Emerson College[127] March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 41% 9% 1% 2% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[128] March 8–15, 2024 447 (RV) ± 5.0% 36% 42% 11% 1% 1% 11%
Noble Predictive Insights[129] February 27 – March 5, 2024 829 (RV) ± 3.4% 33% 40% 11% 4% 2% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[130] February 12–20, 2024 445 (RV) ± 5.0% 37% 44% 9% 1% 0% 9%
Emerson College[84] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 34% 44% 6% 1% 1% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132] January 16–21, 2024 457 (RV) ± 5.0% 31% 43% 12% 1% 2% 11%
Emerson College[133] January 5–8, 2024 1,294 (RV) ± 2.6% 39% 42% 5% 1% 1% 12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[153] November 27 – December 6, 2023 451 (RV) ± 5.0% 37% 42% 11% 2% 1% 7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
P2 Insights[154][Z] June 11–20, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 37% 40% 8% 15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[115][D] June 12–18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 44% 10% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[118] May 19–21, 2024 522 (RV) ± 4.3% 40% 44% 9% 7%
494 (LV) 40% 46% 8% 6%
Iron Light Intelligence[155][AA] May 17–21, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 37% 15% 14%
P2 Insights[156][Z] May 13−21, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 40% 41% 9% 10%
New York Times/Siena College[157] October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (RV) ± 4.4% 31% 38% 23% 8%
611 (LV) 34% 40% 19% 7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[158] October 30 – November 7, 2023 437 (RV) ± 5.0% 35% 39% 11% 1% 14%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[123][U] April 13–21, 2024 517 (LV) – 39% 51% 10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[123][U] April 13–21, 2024 517 (LV) – 40% 46% 14%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[159] October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (RV) ± 4.4% 38% 44% 18%
611 (LV) 37% 46% 17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[159] October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 43% 15%
611 (LV) 41% 45% 14%
Vote TXT[140] May 15–19, 2023 412 (RV) – 36% 46% 17%
Noble Predictive Insights[142] April 18–26, 2023 613 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% 15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[143] April 17–20, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 44% 10%
OH Predictive Insights[144] January 30 – February 6, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 36% 42% 22%
Emerson College[149] July 7–10, 2022 2,000 (RV) ± 2.1% 38% 43% 19%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research[146][W] October 24–27, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 46% 12%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[84] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 32% 49% 19%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Nevada[160]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
751,205 50.59% Increase 2.92%
Democratic
705,197 47.49% Decrease 2.57%
None of These Candidates 19,625 1.32% Increase 0.32%
Libertarian
6,059 0.41% Decrease 0.64%
Independent American
2,754 0.19% Steady
Total votes 1,484,840 100.00%

By county

[edit]
Swing by county:
  Democratic — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +2.5-5%
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
  Republican — +10-12.5%
County[161] Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Carson City 16,873 54.31% 13,375 43.05% 820 2.64% 3,498 11.26% 31,068
Churchill 9,962 73.78% 3,179 23.54% 362 2.68% 6,783 50.24% 13,503
Clark 493,052 47.81% 520,187 50.44% 17,984 2.03% -27,135 -2.63% 1,031,223
Douglas 23,237 65.35% 11,553 32.49% 766 2.16% 11,684 32.86% 35,556
Elko 17,352 77.24% 4,632 20.62% 481 2.14% 12,720 56.62% 22,465
Esmeralda 376 81.56% 73 15.84% 12 2.60% 303 65.72% 461
Eureka 910 87.84% 104 10.04% 22 2.12% 806 77.80% 1,036
Humboldt 6,141 76.48% 1,711 21.31% 178 2.21% 4,430 55.17% 8,030
Lander 2,180 80.00% 482 17.69% 63 2.31% 1,698 62.31% 2,725
Lincoln 2,108 85.28% 314 12.70% 50 2.02% 1,794 72.58% 2,472
Lyon 23,861 71.14% 8,954 26.70% 726 2.16% 14,907 44.44% 33,541
Mineral 1,528 66.58% 711 30.98% 56 2.44% 817 35.60% 2,295
Nye 18,946 70.18% 7,559 28.00% 492 1.82% 11,387 42.18% 26,997
Pershing 1,764 76.43% 496 21.49% 48 2.08% 1,268 54.94% 2,308
Storey 2,108 68.55% 913 29.69% 54 1.76% 1,195 38.86% 3,075
Washoe 127,443 48.32% 130,071 49.32% 6,220 2.36% -2,628 -1.00% 263,734
White Pine 3,364 77.32% 883 20.29% 104 2.39% 2,481 57.03% 4,351
Totals 751,205 50.59% 705,197 47.49% 28,438 1.92% 46,008 3.10% 1,484,840

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 2 of 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[162][user-generated source]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 50.24% 47.98% Dina Titus
2nd 41.84% 55.82% Mark Amodei
3rd 48.80% 49.54% Susie Lee
4th 50.47% 47.65% Steven Horsford

Analysis

[edit]

A Mountain West state, as well as a crucial swing state for the election, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. It has not been won by double digits since Obama in 2008 against John McCain. Nevada has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1980 with the exception of 2016, when it backed Hillary Clinton; and has been decided by single digits in every presidential election since 1992 with the exception of Barack Obama's 12.5% win in 2008. Obama won by less than 7% in 2012, and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020. Today a purple state, Democratic strength in Nevada is almost entirely focused on Las Vegas and Reno, along with many of their suburbs.

Trump's win is the first time since statehood that Nevada voted for a Republican and Colorado voted for a Democrat, as well as the first time since 2000 that New Mexico and Nevada have voted for different candidates in a presidential election.

Nevada was the only state that did not vote for Trump in either of his 2016 or 2020 campaigns that voted for him in 2024. This marked the sixth election in a row Nevada voted for the winner of the national popular vote, the longest active streak among any bellwether state. Nevada was one of four states that shifted to the right during all three times that Trump ran, the other three being Arkansas, Florida, and Hawaii.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ If a candidate wins all of Nevada's delegates, the NRP chair is automatically unbound. He has pledged his support to Trump.
  2. ^ a b Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ a b "Blank / null / won't vote" with 1%
  6. ^ a b "Someone else" & None of these candidates with 1% each
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h "Other" with 1%
  8. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%; None of these candidates with 1%
  9. ^ a b "Other" with 2%
  10. ^ a b None of these candidates with 2%
  11. ^ "Other" with 4%
  12. ^ None of these candidates & "Someone else" with 1% each
  13. ^ None of these candidates with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  15. ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
  16. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
  17. ^ "None of the above" with 4%; "Others" with 1%
  18. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
  19. ^ "Other" with 8%
  20. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; None of these candidates with 1%
  23. ^ a b c d Not on the ballot.
  24. ^ a b Joel Skousen (C) with 0%
  25. ^ None of these candidates with 3%
  26. ^ None of these candidates with 1%
  27. ^ "Others" with 2%
  28. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  29. ^ "Another candidate" with 10%
  30. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
  31. ^ No Labels candidate
  32. ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  33. ^ a b c Lars Mapstead (L) with 2%
  34. ^ Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  2. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  4. ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by AARP
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  7. ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
  8. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
  9. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
  12. ^ Poll conducted for the Democracy Defense Project
  13. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  14. ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
  16. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  17. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  18. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
  20. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  21. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  23. ^ a b Poll sponsored by BUSR
  24. ^ Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute
  25. ^ Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
  26. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
  27. ^ Poll commissioned by League of American Workers

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Voter Turnout Statistics". Nevada Secretary of State.
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  5. ^ https://thediplomat.com/2024/12/did-filipino-americans-help-trump-win-nevada/
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  46. ^ a b Korte, Gregory; Cook, Nancy (October 23, 2024). "Two Weeks Out, Trump and Harris Are Locked in a Dead Heat". Bloomberg.
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  49. ^ a b c Easley, Cameron; Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2024). "Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State". Morning Consult.
  50. ^ Clement, Scott; Guskin, Emily; Keating, Dan; Balz, Dan (October 21, 2024). "Harris and Trump locked in dead heat in seven-state poll, with some voters still deciding". The Washington Post.
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