Why Did Pundits Underestimate Cillian Murphy?

The Oppenheimer star’s victory at last weekend’s SAG Awards for many pundits to accept the Irishman as our Best Actor frontrunner. Photo: Golden Globes 2024 via Getty Ima

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A cardinal rule of internet discourse states that if someone holds a different opinion than you, it’s not because they legitimately disagree, but rather because they’re part of a shadowy conspiracy intended to hold you down. Thus, as Cillian Murphy seems likely to emerge victorious in the Best Actor race, a few particularly vocal Murphy fans are wondering why it took until the Oppenheimer star’s victory at last weekend’s SAG Awards for many pundits to accept that the Irishman was indeed our frontrunner. Back in the fall when Maestro’s Bradley Cooper was the GoldDerby favorite, these diehards had faith that Murphy’s brilliant baby blues would take it. Even as Murphy won the Globe in January and the BAFTA last month, pundits continued to entertain the idea of Paul Giamatti taking the trophy. Fans seethed. What was really going on? Was some sort of anti-Hibernian bias afoot among our most prestigious awards bloggers?

At the risk of indulging dangerously online awards obsessives, it is true that many writers on the beat, including yours truly, were late to board the Murphy train. The notion of an Oscars Deep State working behind the scenes to prevent the actor from getting his due may be ludicrous — were we all in the pocket of Big Holdovers? — but it’s fair to wonder what led experts to underestimate the lead of the presumptive Best Picture winner. Why did this happen, and what does it tell us about the limitations of Oscars punditry?

The Timing
To give pundits credit, many of them immediately recognized that Murphy would score his first career Oscar nomination for Oppenheimer. But this discussion happened back in the summer, and by the time the awards conversation ramped up in the fall, there were plenty of exciting new Best Actor contenders to talk about. Could Paul Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright get nominated for comedies? Could Colman Domingo overcome the lack of passion for Rustin? And what was going on with Bradley Cooper’s nose? Everyone was saving a seat for Murphy, but that seat was firmly in the back row.

The Narrative 
Similarly, it was easy to slot Cooper and Giamatti into established awards-season roles. The former was a multi-time nominee who’d made a drastic physical transformation; the latter a beloved veteran going for a trophy that would cap off his long career. Murphy, meanwhile, was a mid-career actor whose previous filmography was not prestigious enough to give him an awards track record, but not un-prestigious enough to make him an endearing newcomer. Which is not to say he had nothing going for him. He was the star of an Important Man of History biopic, an archetype that voters habitually reward in Best Actor. But Murphy didn’t have that lane to himself, as Cooper and Domingo were working the same narrative, too.

The Film
Unlike Cooper or Domingo, Murphy at least had the benefit of starring in the Best Picture frontrunner. But that doesn’t take a contender as far as you might think. Not since Jean Dujardin and The Artist 12 years ago have Best Actor and Best Picture overlapped. Counterintuitively, the fact that Oppenheimer was so strong across the board tended to obscure Murphy’s individual achievement. On the eve of the Golden Globe nominations, Kyle Buchanan warned that Murphy “may be held back by sentiment that the real star of Oppenheimer is [Christopher] Nolan.”

The Campaign
As onetime Academy governor Annette Bening’s Best Actress nomination proves, Oscars season is partly about who you know. Murphy has worked steadily for two decades, but he is less of a Hollywood figure than Cooper and Giamatti. There is an image online of Murphy and Cooper as awards-season opposites: one noble thespian refusing to embark on the embarrassing promotional blitz, the other jumping in wholeheartedly. This is too simple; as many have noted. Murphy has been out there campaigning as much as anyone. But it is true that the Oppenheimer star pushed back against the circus more than his rivals, speaking out against the “broken model” of modern press tours. While fans enjoyed these glimpses of humanity, it was fair to wonder if Murphy might be dinged by voters for seeming to “need it” less than his fellow nominees.

You’ll notice what I haven’t yet mentioned — anything about what’s onscreen. Murphy also gave a subtly transformative performance in a role that didn’t lack for dramatic heft. For all of the (justified) praise of Oppenheimer’s Trinity sequence, the film’s most powerful shot may still be its final one: a straight close-up of Murphy’s haunted stare. Pundits may have overlooked him. Voters didn’t.

The Procrastinator’s Guide to Finally Watching Oppenheimer

Uh-oh! Oscars night is fast approaching, and though Oppenheimer looks likely to dominate, you still haven’t gotten around to watching it yet. I am not here to judge: A three-hour biopic of a nuclear physicist is admittedly a tougher sit than say, Barbie. No, I am here to help you. If you want to catch up with Oppenheimer before the Oscars, the trick is not to get intimidated by the prospect of watching it in one three-hour session. Instead, plan to watch the movie in three one-hour blocks. It’s not twice as long as The Super Mario Bros. Movie; it’s half as long as True Detective: Night Country!

My colleague Jesse David Fox was on paternity leave when Oppenheimer hit theaters, and he credits this method as the only way he could have caught up with Christopher Nolan’s film. And on the plus side, Jesse says, “Each hour has a pretty clear story and its own energy.” To a certain extent we’re just talking about the three-act structure here, but watching it this way does underline how neatly constructed Nolan’s screenplay is. Here’s how to do it:

First, you’ll need a Peacock subscription. (This is not #spon, though I would happily shill for the star-crossed streaming service. It’s got Columbo!) On night one, start from the beginning, where you’ll learn all about Oppenheimer’s advances in physics and his growing political identity, and stop at 1:00:20. You’ll know you’re there when Robert Downey Jr.’s Lewis Strauss is informed that a scientist is coming to testify at his Senate confirmation hearing. Strauss informs his underlings to find out where the guy was based, so they’ll know if he was part of “the cult of Oppie in Los Alamos.” The next shot is Oppenheimer driving through the burgeoning town, the perfect teaser for night two!

The second night, you’ll pick up from there, and go to 2:00:17. This session follows the development of the atomic bomb, all leading up to the mother of all climaxes: the Trinity explosion. Nolan even gives you a little button to end on, when Emily Blunt takes in the sheets, just as her husband told her to. “There’s literally a slow fade to black,” Jesse says. Finally, on night three you watch from there to the end of the movie, to see the fallout — both literally and figuratively — of Oppenheimer’s invention.

“The first hour is his rise, both as a man of science and in terms of his relationship to politics,” Jesse says. “The second hour is about power struggles, between people, internally, and also with science. The third hour is all cat-and-mouse, judgment day.”

Anyway, you’ve got eight nights until the Oscars. Here’s how to use three of them!

How Will Dune Two Do Next Year?

Let’s take a break from speculating about the 2024 Oscars to jump ahead to and talk about the 2025 edition. This weekend marks the arrival of Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, which was delayed from its scheduled November opening due to the SAG and WGA strikes. Since Part One took home five craft trophies alongside a Best Picture nod, the sequel has been long pegged as a potential Oscars player. Now that it’s finally here, will Dune Two be our long-awaited Lisan al Gaib, or will it crash and burn like a Harkonnen spice harvester?

Reviews for Part Two have been positively effusive, with many critics proclaiming the sequel better than its predecessor. At the box office, the new installment is projected to double Part One’s opening weekend, which took place amid the theatrical business’s climb out of its COVID nadir. Much can happen between now and next January, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dune Two equal the original’s ten nominations. With critics and audiences on its side, a Best Picture berth looks likely, and since Villeneuve is working on an even bigger and more grandiose scale here, the film should play well with the craft branches. Whether it wins as many below-the-line trophies as Part One will likely depend on the competition; the original probably benefited from being the only big blockbuster in the race. But at the very least, action-friendly trophies like Visual Effects and Sound should be in play. The film’s otherworldly costumes, which are even more ornate this time around, could be rewarded, too, especially with no Cruella in the mix.

There’s even the possibility that Part Two surpasses Part One in total nominations, thanks to two categories where the first Dune didn’t show up. Lest we forget, Villeneuve was snubbed in Best Director two years ago, an omission that remains baffling to me. The best explanation I’ve heard is that the directors branch can be snobby about franchise fare, and indeed, the following season saw Avatar: The Way of Water’s James Cameron and Top Gun: Maverick’s Joseph Kosinski both left out. Perhaps the lesson is to avoid colons, which does not bode well in this case. Still, Villeneuve will certainly be in the directing conversation for Part Two.

Part Two also boasts something Part One didn’t: a potential acting play. As Feyd-Rautha, murderous scion of the Harkonnen dynasty, Austin Butler gives a big-swing performance that makes an impression far beyond its relatively meager screen time. Bald capped and black-toothed, with a pout that brings to mind a fully waxed Derek Zoolander, Butler’s Feyd is terrifying, repulsive, and sexy all at once. In terms of impact, I’d compare him to Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther, and while that example should caution us against being too bullish on his Supporting Actor chances, at least Butler has the advantage of being a former nominee.

Could Part Two succeed where Part One failed, and become a legitimate Best Picture threat? Two years ago, I thought it might have some Return of the King potential as the final act in a multipart saga. However, Villeneuve has since begun publicly making plans for future Dune installments, and without spoiling anything, I will say that the ending of Part Two feels as much a new beginning as it does a satisfying resolution. That’s good news for fans of our weirdest big-budget franchise, but it does mean Dune’s shot at the ultimate Oscar will probably have to be put on hold.

Links!

– Everyone’s favorite presentation format is coming back!

– Why didn’t The Iron Claw get nominated? (It came out too late.)

– The First Annual ‘Bunch of Boys’ Awards.