Taylor Swift’s Chart Reign Might Finally Be Ending

Photo: Gareth Cattermole/TAS24/Getty Images

Taylor Swift just completed a record-breaking sixth fortnight at No. 1 with The Tortured Poets Department — or 12 weeks, for all you non-tortured poetry students. Her latest album is now her longest-running chart-topper on “The Billboard 200,” breaking out of a tie with the 11-week runs for Fearless and 1989. TTPD has only seemed more unstoppable each week, fending off challengers like Billie Eilish and Zach Bryan thanks to Swift’s dedicated fans and canny release strategy. Since her return to commercial glory with folklore, Swift has made an Olympic sport out of the charts, scheming up additional releases around her albums and timing them just right to keep her at No. 1, break new records, and cement her spot as the most successful artist of her generation. But even that strategy won’t stop TTPD from falling off its perch soon.

TTPD’s initial month atop Billboard’s album chart felt inevitable. After Swift broke records in the first week, strong streaming numbers kept the album firmly at the top during a quiet stretch of releases, when her biggest competition was an underwhelming Dua Lipa set and a surprise Gunna album. Then, Eilish’s third album, Hit Me Hard and Soft, arrived after months of buzz, thanks to a strategy of not releasing advance singles. With Swift’s numbers tapering off, Eilish should’ve taken the top spot — if not for some Swiftian masterminding: She released new digital and CD variants that same week, which boosted her numbers by over 100,000 units and secured her reign.

It also set Swift up for the next few weeks. Her numbers continued to decrease week-to-week as expected, but every time a different artist was within striking distance, like twenty one pilots or ATEEZ, she came out ahead. Zach Bryan’s The Great American Bar Scene should’ve been the album to end things, but Swift restocked the CDs in her online store at the right time, leading to another bump in sales. Meanwhile, Bryan’s chart timing was off by debuting Bar Scene on a Thursday, July 4. By not dropping on the typical Friday release day, he was out of sync with the tracking week, meaning his debut-day numbers were counted separately from his next seven days of streams and sales. But even if he had released Bar Scene on a Friday, he still would’ve likely landed at No. 2, just under Swift. (Bryan’s fans may also be too fatigued to keep up with the Swifties: Bar Scene earned fewer units than the self-titled record he released last year, which doesn’t usually happen to rising artists like him.)

Swift’s latest challenger has his own history with No. 1 albums: Eminem. With The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace), Em is looking to continue a ten-album streak of chart-toppers. And he’s got the goods for a fight. The day of release, Eminem posted his best-ever single-day streaming numbers and earned the top streaming day for a rap album this year. Lead single “Houdini” is driving a lot of that motion, after debuting at No. 2 on “The Hot 100” last month. And Eminem should have a strong base of album sales too, after his last LP, 2020’s Music to Be Murdered By, sold 117,000 physical copies in its first week. If you add in streaming, Murdered By debuted with 279,000 units — which would be more than enough to topple Swift now.

For Swift, last week’s sales bump just staved off the inevitable: the fact that she’s likely to dip below six figures any week now. If she has anything left in the vault for TTPD, this would be the week to drop it. Even then, she’ll face yet another challenger next week, when BTS’s beloved Jimin returns with his second album, Muse. It’s been a good run, but fate comes for us all eventually. Taylor Swift can just ask the poets about that.