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Election 2018

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The racial distribution of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 but for a Democrat congressperson in 2018: Those who presumably experienced voter's remorse are whiter than the electorate as a whole is. That is not the case for those who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but for a Republican congressperson in 2018:... Read More
The simplest explanation for why a gentle blue wave washed over the country in the 2018 mid-terms is because over twice as many people who supported Donald Trump in 2016 voted Democrat in 2018 (8.3% of Trump voters switched) as people who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 voted Republican in 2018 (3.4% of Clinton voters... Read More
I'm fond of referencing Razib Khan's observation--and auguring--about how we haven't had our Sulla... yet. Trust in institutions, and the processes of those institutions, is plummeting. Across the Western world it increasingly feels as though every dispute involves bad blood. Good faith disagreements are the exception. Do not expect millennials or Zs to arrest that... Read More
A few more observations from the 2018 midterms: - We hear a lot about the educational divide. Democrats are increasingly winning the college-educated while Republicans are increasingly winning those without college degrees. That's descriptive when it comes to whites (including Jews). It's not so with non-whites, though: - While higher educational attainment is inversely correlated... Read More
VDare carried the previous post containing some reactions to the 2018 congressional midterms, highlighting the finding that the vast majority of Democrats think it important that fewer whites and fewer men be elected to public office: An NPC, putatively sympathetic to VDare's mission, immediately and publicly cried foul: He was of course blatantly incorrect. The... Read More
Some reactions to the blue splash: - The Kemp, DeSantis, and King contests were three of the night's four most important. Cheers to and for all of them. Kris Kobach's defeat stings. He's regularly been stabbed in the back by corporate interests and in the front by criminal organizations like the ACLU, but he refuses... Read More
Via reader HBS, another encouraging sign that Zs are going to be a cut or ten above Millennials (quite possibly the worst generation in American history): Almost 40,000 K-12 students in more than 300 schools participated in the unscientific straw poll, which was sponsored by Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate. It gets better. The... Read More
The marriage gap is not merely a disguised age gap. To the contrary, the younger the cohort, the more pronounced the marriage gap. Married people of all ages vote quite similarly: The increasing aversion to marriage--some of it a consequence of generational neoteny, with millennials refusing to grow up, and some of it a consequence... Read More
Expounding on the marriage and gender (forgiveness please, vok3) gaps, it's pair-bonded huwhite men and women against the world, with unmarried white men on the fence: The male-female gaps, by race: White gentiles exhibiting the greatest amount of gender parity--who woulda thunk it?! Parenthetically is why the gender gap is played up relentlessly in the... Read More
Steve Sailer's perspicacity is like a fine wine, starting off good and getting even better over time.In a Reuters-Ipsos two-way generic 2018 mid-term congressional ballot (N = 61,712), Republicans garner 53.9% of the married vote compared to only 34.3% of the unmarried vote.Republicans get 47.3% of the vote among men of any marital status compared... Read More
So says Shapiro, anyway. A Reuters-Ipsos poll of tens of thousands of registered, self-described conservatives who intend to vote in the mid-terms suggests that, at least when it comes to political outcomes, Benny Passports is incorrect. The following graph shows the percentages of conservatives who plan on voting for the congressional Democrat candidate in a... Read More
A SurveyUSA poll on the upcoming gubernatorial election in Georgia asked respondents about who they planned on voting for and also about their opinions on eight policy questions. What jumps out immediately from the results is how much wider the racial disparity is on the question of who to vote for than it is on... Read More
It's said the culture wars are primarily fought boomer elites on team red and team blue. When the boomers die off, politics will get back to bread and butter issues again. Trump and Sanders, not Cruz and Clinton. One of our most appreciated regular commenters frequently argues as much. I've long been incredulous. Clinton beat... Read More
DemsRRealRapists will be about as rhetorically and polemically effective as DemsRRealRacists has been--not very. Half the population views Bill Clinton and Keith Ellison as good guys. Calling them the real Kavanaughs just hardens things along partisan lines. It's off-putting to a lot of people in the squishy middle. So is this: Instead of clown world... Read More
And tax cuts. From Reuters-Ipsos, the issue registered Democrats and Republicans identified as the most important one in determining their mid-term congressional votes (N = 26,785): The contrast between the priorities of congressional Republican 'leadership' and what their voters care about is why the GOP is called the Stupid Party. That's unfair to people like... Read More
Are there any in the country who are doing so in gubernatorial, House, or Senate elections in November? In Kansas, Kris Kobach's opponent Laura Kelly offers not a word about immigration in the "issues" section of her campaign website. And Sharice Davis, who is running against the useless Kevin Yoder, has this to say: In... Read More
As Ted Cruz fights for his political life in Texas--and the day the state flips reliably blue at the presidential level draws nearer--it's worth noting that even had he lost Texas, Trump would've had a plurality of the electoral college: � I'm fond of saying he would've won even without Texas. In actuality, that's not... Read More
The civic nationalists want to believe it. A part of me would like to believe it, too. I've mostly shed that part of myself over the last couple of years as it has become obvious that Trump's Authentic American (whites and blacks) vs Fake American (invaders) paradigm isn't going to materialize, but I'm a pragmatist.... Read More
An anti-white white* girl from the heartland goes on a night run wearing almost nothing at all because my body, my choice. A squatemalan invader goes feral--or a feral squatemalan invader, take your pick--hones in. Strong, independent woman that she is, needing neither man nor bicycle, she's soon decomposing in a cornfield. The homicidal alien... Read More
Commentary coming from the outside is really bad. Punditry on the modern left has largely devolved into little more than histrionic virtue signalling and moral posturing. Though the relevant data is seconds away, 0.4 minutes for verification is too much to ask as the same nonsense shows up over and over in the mouths of... Read More
Of the twenty counties in Kansas where Hispanics comprise at least 15% of the population, Kobach won sixteen of them. Colyer won four. The state has three counties that are majority-Hispanic. Kobach handily won all three of them. On average, the counties that went to Kobach are 13.1% Hispanic. The counties Colyer won are 7.3%... Read More
Colyer's press release: No complaints from me about using small, round numbers to illustrate abstract proportionalities in ways that are easy to grasp. But that approach is also easy to reverse engineer. So, to be precise, Colyer's phrase "hundreds of votes" translates to... 102 votes. C'mon, Jeff, that's a little misleading, isn't it? Regarding the... Read More
Pairing up with the failing Kansas City Star, ProPublica deployed an "October surprise" attempt to snatch the Kansas Republican gubernatorial nomination from Kris Kobach. Several national outlets like Ralph Maddow, Single Mother Jones, and Daily Poz simultaneously deployed articles on it. As we've long argued here, this race has ramifications extending far beyond this middle... Read More
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Don Junior is a simulacrum of candidate Donald Trump. He frames everything in the context of whether it is America First or Not. Asked why he stays involved in politics now that the campaign is over, he answered that it was for the "good of our children and our children's children". Ourselves and our posterity,... Read More
The most important gubernatorial primary in the country takes place on Tuesday, August 7th, right in the middle American heartland. When Trump tapped Sam Brownback to convert the heathens, then-lieutenant governor Jeff Colyer inherited the spot. Colyer is an open borders cuck. He's in the farm lobby's back pocket. Under Sebelius, Brownback, and now Colyer,... Read More
Thought experiment: Instead of Joe Crowley as the ten-term House representative up for re-election, it's a woman named Maria Sanchez. And instead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez the upstart challenging that ten-term congress critter, it's a young white man named Hayden Stoddard. Keep everything else constant about their political careers and campaign positions--Sanchez is the party machine... Read More
Agnostic, in the context of explaining why ¡Ocasio!'s victory means the invasion will end: Here's her campaign platform flyer: And here's her two-minute TV spot:
I'd been getting a sinking feeling that Democrats had come to realize doing what they had done to garner big wins in Florida, Alabama, Pennsylvania, Virginia, even California was the easiest route to sealing heritage America's fate and ensuring the Great Replacement. Run putatively moderate whites to avoid spooking soccer moms and then have them,... Read More
Most of the 2012 invaders were "unaccompanied minors". Most female invaders, including children, coming through Mexico are sexually assaulted along the way. Many of the adults with the children aren't the real parents of the children. Incarceration requires family separation. Concern for Tommy Robinson's children? For the carcasses of raped and mutilated Afrikaner toddlers? No... Read More
Running against affirmative action--with campaign ads showing white men and women coming home to somberly deliver bad news to the family about being passed over for the job or promotion--is a political winner. Or at least it would be if the Stupid Party had the sense to capitalize on it. In fairness to the GOP,... Read More
Drawing from a large Reuters-Ipsos polling sample (N = 24,487), the following graphs show, first, the percentages of Trump voters who say they will vote Democrat in the 2018 congressional mid-terms, and second, the percentages of Clinton voters who say they will vote Republican in the 2018 congressional mid-terms (both in a two-way race with... Read More
Vox Day ensures we have "a public record of whose analysis was correct and whose was not". I can think of no better company to be in than Derb's and Z-Man's, though some clarification for the benefit of the historical record is in order. VD: The criticism offered here is qualitatively different than that of... Read More
So bye, bye MAGA dream in the sky: This is probably the beginning of the end of Trump’s presidency. The midterms are shaping up to be a bloodbath. The markets now put the odds of Democrats re-taking the House at 68%. The odds of Democrats gaining control of the Senate is 40%, an astoundingly high... Read More
Agnostic: Perspicacity or delusion? The latter, I'll argue. Agnostic again: How long will restrictionists have to wait for Democrats to make even the most non-committal, mild gesture in the direction of immigration restriction? Rhetorical, of course. The only plausible answer is "indefinitely". There's no talk of it whatsoever among any Democrats, anywhere. The Bernie Sanders... Read More
Over the last several months the Democrats have quietly put into place a winning electoral--running moderate white men. Those moderate white men in Virginia, Alabama, and Pennsylvania sound nothing like their colleagues in California. Celebrating the dispossession of white Americans by illegal alien invaders comes naturally to someone like Kevin de Leon, who cut his... Read More
From Reuters-Ipsos polling, the percentages of adults, by selected demographics, who are "certain to vote" in the 2018 mid-term elections (N = 12,155): Excepting Jews (the blue wave!), all the bars look pretty good for the GOP's prospects--except for the presidential candidate those polled voted for in 2016, and that's a big one. Another poll... Read More
Speculating on Trumpian tactics is tough. Assuming he has handed over strategic considerations to trusted senior policy adviser Stephen Miller--heaven preserve him--makes things a little easier. Having done so has allowed me to remain--in stark contrast to many titans of the dissident right--consistently optimistic about the administration's handling of DACA specifically, and immigration more generally,... Read More
The following graph comes from data from a Reuters-Ipsos poll asking about support for the Republican congressional tax reform plan. The poll has been running since mid-October, so the results are presumably mostly in response to the House plan rather than the one from the Senate, which came out last week (N = 4,390): Inspiring.... Read More
Trump lost the outer Swamp* 31.8%-68.2 to Clinton (in a two-way race). Gillespie lost the outer Swamp by a nearly identical 31.9%-68.1% to Northam. The outer Swamp represents nearly one-third of the state's total electorate. Trump won the rest of the state by 6.6 points, 53.3%-46.7%. Gillespie won it by a narrower 2.4 points, 51.2%-48.8%.... Read More
Gillespie is a longtime murk dweller who was part of Dubya's presidency and of Romney's failed 2012 candidacy. He's been in the lobbying 'business' for decades. As physiognomy confirms, he's the epitome of cuckservative boomer nationalism. The only reason to pull for him was because, during the gubernatorial campaign, he feigned to care about the... Read More
Agnostic wonders if a DACA amnesty is suicide for Republicans... or if it is actually suicide for Democrats. He is one of the most original and perspicacious thinkers out there. It would be folly not to take him seriously here. That said, there are some questionable assumptions in the argument he makes: Of the 30... Read More
This is causing a lot of grumbling among immigration patriots: It shouldn't. Congress is an amnesty killing field. The bipartisan swamp attempted it in 2007. Middle America grabbed the pitchforks, surrounded the palaces of their congressional Cloud People, and demanded the McCain-Kennedy be destroyed. It was. The bipartisan swamp made another major attempt in 2013,... Read More