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BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive
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Pax Americana
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Pax Americana

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Decade Forecast, Part 1 - the Downsizing of Pax Americana
•�May 14, 2011
•�3,400 Words •�14 Comments
This is the first post in a series of three, in which I will analyze the major trends that will define the next ten years and their likely impacts on global regions. To put these forecasts into context, I must first describe the narrative through which I view the history of the post-WW2 era (the... Read More
Everyone Is Still Underestimating China
•�August 18, 2010
•�1,500 Words •�25 Comments
There's been lots of fanfare over China's GDP overtaking Japan's in Q2 2010 (coming hard on the heels of a big ruckus over its DF-21 "carrier killing" ballistic missile and rising tensions with the US over North Korea and the South China Sea). The big debate is now whether China will overtake the US as... Read More
On Future War
•�February 18, 2010
•�9,200 Words •�18 Comments
This post is about the future of military technology and war strategy in a world of informatization, resource scarcity, and renewed ideological turbulence. Be forewarned: while some of what I write here corresponds to the conventional wisdom, some is well off the beaten tracks, and some will sound like it's straight out of a sci-fi... Read More
The Endgame Begins
•�February 13, 2010
•�4,400 Words •�22 Comments
A year ago I predicted that there will be a "decoupling from the unwinding", as "emerging markets" by and large ride out the temporary shocks of declining Western demand for their exports (China) and the interruption of Western credit intermediation (Russia) before resuming growth. This is one aspect of the trends leading to the imminent... Read More
Philosophical Musings #2
•�January 28, 2010
•�800 Words
4. Freedom from fear, the only real freedom. Political scientists try to rank countries based on their levels of "freedom", frequently arbitrarily defined and applied (Freedom House, Economist Democracy Index, Polity IV, etc). Yet despite the inconsistencies and difficulties with quantifying something as abstract and intangible as freedom across cultural and civilization borders, for all... Read More
Review of "Global Catastrophes and Trends" by Vaclav Smil
•�September 28, 2009
•�4,300 Words •�3 Comments
Smil, Vaclav – Global Catastrophes and Trends (2008) Category: futurism, climate change, geopolitics, catastrophes; Rating: 5/5 Summary: Google Books Vaclav Smil, an energy theorist and language connoisseur, brings his talents to bear on this idiosyncratic, incisive and balanced book on the global future. From the outset, he outlines his skepticism in universal theories of history... Read More
Shifting Winds: the End of Pax Americana
•�September 19, 2009
•�4,900 Words •�18 Comments
Every once in a while, there occurs a major shift in the international arena. The First World War and its consequences were the seminal change of the last century, collapsing ancient empires and ushering in a new era of ethno-nationalist clashes, political radicalism and emerging powers challenging the established order of Versailles, forces that were... Read More
Is the US In 2009 Like the USSR In 1989?
With increasing signs of economic collapse, military overstretch and political problems, is the US doomed to go the way...
•�February 26, 2009
•�4,700 Words •�8 Comments
Inspired in no small part by the political charade over the bail-outs and boondoggles that plague the TV screens and electronic ether, I've compiled a top 10 list of ways in which the US increasingly resembles the collapsing Soviet Union for your information / despair / entertainment / Schadenfreude / ridicule / etc. A list... Read More
Review of "The Next 100 Years" by George Friedman
•�February 23, 2009
•�5,900 Words •�7 Comments
The Next 100 Years by George Friedman, published in 2010. Rating: 3/5 George Friedman at Stratfor is one of my favorite analysts on world geopolitics. This is because he tries to look at the world as it is, without the pointless moralizing, neoliberal ideologizing and end-of-history triumphalism that clouds too much American geopolitical thinking. Hence... Read More
A Long Wait at the Gate of Delusions
•�August 3, 2008
•�2,500 Words
Sometimes, it is much simpler to expound upon one's views on a subject by replying to and arguing against an opposing view, rather than constructing one's own thesis. Call it intellectual laziness, a clever short-cut or whatever you not, this is what I'm going to do with the Washington Post article A Long Wait at... Read More
"Pax Americana" Items Across Entire Archive
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.