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BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive
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Corona
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Corona

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Rejecting Sputnik to Own Putler
•�July 6, 2021
•�500 Words •�166 Comments
Yesterday the Levada Center released a new poll on vaccines that tends to confirm my contention that Russia's tawdry pace of vaccinations is not a result of supply constraints, but the banal fact that many Russians (including in older age groups) would simply rather catch Corona than get vaccinated. The first observation is that the... Read More
Corona Babies
•�June 19, 2021
•�600 Words •�102 Comments
We know the effects of Corona on mortality and GDP. As data trickles in, we are now getting an increasingly clear idea of its effects on fertility rates. (via Twitter demographer @BirthGauge) We generally see no large-scale effects from Corona. There were usually fertility shocks as the lockdowns first went into effect, but they were... Read More
Dying from Corona in Russia Has Long Been "Optional"
•�June 10, 2021
•�900 Words •�258 Comments
I don't have the reputation of someone who stans for Russia's record on dealing with Corona. I was writing about how Russian official statistics were massively understating Corona mortality more than a year ago, before Western journalists generally noticed it, and followed that theme up in the subsequent months. Ironically, Russia's development of one of... Read More
Anti-Vax Signaling
•�May 22, 2021
•�300 Words •�95 Comments
Within countries, anti-vaxxer sentiment tends to fall with rising IQ (e.g. white males with no degree see no difference in risk between contracting COVID-19 and getting vaxxed, barely higher than the numbers for Blacks and Hispanics, while Whites with a degree give the factually correct answer). However, between countries, there seems to be no such... Read More
IHME: 6.9 Million Deaths from Corona
•�May 7, 2021
•�400 Words •�145 Comments
This is Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's assessment of global excess mortality from COVID-19 from the beginning until May 3, 2021. (h/t Ron Unz) You can read about the methodology here. All in all, this sadly comports with the "millions" prediction I made in February 24, 2020. While at the end of last year... Read More
State Capacity and Vaccinations
•�January 3, 2021
•�500 Words •�234 Comments
Why is Israel vaccinating its population so fast relative to everyone else? I am seeing some smol brain takes on this. Sure, Israel might be a "small" country, but so is Belgium. Or US states like Massachusetts. But in the US it is those famous dense metropolitan centers of the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Alaska that... Read More
The Year of Corona: Ten Megadeaths & the Crash of Western Supremacism
•�December 29, 2020
•�7,600 Words •�297 Comments
In this "summary" post on Corona 2020, I will cover some of the following. Recap what we know about Corona, what we have learned in the past year, and what policies should have been undertaken; The big picture of global excess mortality that is emerging for 2020; Discuss the vaccines, "vaccine geopolitics", and Corona's impact... Read More
Corona's Toll in the Ex-USSR
•�December 28, 2020
•�1,500 Words •�115 Comments
This post sums up the coronavirus epidemic in Russia in 2020. There will subsequently be a larger post surveying the world at large and prospects for its containment before the New Year. � The observation that Russia is massive understating its COVID-19 mortality rate was first noticed by bloggers around May, when they noticed that... Read More
Podcast with Robert Stark: Could Trump Have Done Better?
•�November 14, 2020
•�900 Words •�50 Comments
Check out my latest podcast with Robert Stark here. No, really. While I'm not always very happy with all the podcasts I'm on, I think this one turned out very nicely. Here are the topics we discussed: Anatoly’s initial Election Predictions which were fairly accurate MAGA Cope, and In Defense of It Biden Recognitions from... Read More
MAGA Cope, and In Defense of It
•�November 6, 2020
•�2,900 Words •�469 Comments
This post probably isn't going to make me many friends. Then again, if catering to various echo chambers was my main concern in life, I wouldn't be running this blog. So, did Biden win thanks to electoral fraud? My general impression is that many, if not all, electoral fraud arguments have been rather simplistic and... Read More
Trump Blessed by Corona-Chan
•�October 2, 2020
•�100 Words •�68 Comments
The Virgin HCQ shill vs. the Chad Sputnik V respecter. Anyhow, this might have helped Trump by generating sympathy. But, given his not entirely undeserved reputation as a floomer, probably won't. Rallies are Trump's lifeblood, chances of him winning have surely plummeted just now. He's fat and 18 years older than BoJo, who was hospitalized.... Read More
Testing Sputnik V
•�September 20, 2020
•�100 Words •�73 Comments
Today I have been granted the GREAT OPPORTUNITY and PRIVILEGE of serving Russia and President PUTIN as guinea pig for Gam-COVID-Vac, that is, the SPUTNIK V vaccine. Accounting for Phase I-II participants, I calculated I'm the 503rd person in the world (officially) testing it, out of perhaps hundreds of millions to come. Assuming, that is,... Read More
Sputnik V Seems to Work
•�September 6, 2020
•�300 Words •�177 Comments
At any rate, the paper in question was published in The Lancet, which isn't exactly the most obscure medical journal. Logunov, Denis Y., Inna V. Dolzhikova, Olga V. Zubkova, Amir I. Tukhvatullin, Dmitry V. Shcheblyakov, Alina S. Dzharullaeva, Daria M. Grousova, et al. 2020. “Safety and Immunogenicity of an rAd26 and rAd5 Vector-Based Heterologous Prime-Boost... Read More
PDS Turns Libs Anti-Vaxxer
•�August 11, 2020
•�400 Words •�150 Comments
It's become glaringly evident that Western societies (unfortunately, Russia "qualifies") do not have the state capacity or social discipline to contain Corona. Not high IQ enough to solve it through technological silver bullets like ubiquitous testing. Not imaginative enough to do large-scale variolation, as Robin Hanson proposed. Nor do they have the fortitude to "power... Read More
HBD and Mask Compliance?
•�July 29, 2020
•�700 Words •�91 Comments
Excellent control: Singapore started off following Western (mal)practice on the Mask Question, but after reversing stance, mask wearing became universal to an extent that didn't occur in the US or any North European nation. This pattern also checks out within races in the US - Latinos (87%) are higher than Whites (62%) or Blacks (69%),... Read More
Wearing Masks as IQ/Personality Test
•�June 26, 2020
•�500 Words •�122 Comments
Hard to argue with this take. This Gallup poll from April shows 42% with a HS education or less as saying they have never worn a mask in the past week, vs. just 20% of those with college or postgrad degrees. It also certainly tallies with my observations here and would also tally with common... Read More
Open Thread 106
•�June 19, 2020
•�100 Words •�131 Comments
First time on Moscow Metro after couple of months on June 12 (Russia Day), within minutes have ascertained for myself (n=~50) that Corona will rage here until herd immunity. Mask wearing at ~60% (well short of the needed 80%), of which a quarter wear them opened up anyway. At this point - well, actually, as... Read More
Podcast with Robert Stark About Corona
•�June 15, 2020
•�200 Words •�3 Comments
This month's "Coronacast" with Robert Stark and Dain Fitzgerald: Robert Stark is joined with Moscow based Unz Review columnist Anatoly Karlin and Bay Area based blogger Dain Fitzgerald who has written for Spliced Today, Rachel Haywire’s Trigger Warning, and The American Spectator. Follow Anatoly and Dain on Twitter. Topics: Going back to Anatoly’s initial predictions... Read More
Efficacy of Masks, Confirmed
•�June 10, 2020
•�200 Words •�15 Comments
Huge meta-study (n=172) concludes chance of transmission falls from 17.4% to 3.1% when wearing face masks: Physical distancing was also very important. Eye protection, less so. Chu, Derek K., Elie A. Akl, Stephanie Duda, Karla Solo, Sally Yaacoub, Holger J. Schünemann, and COVID-19 Systematic Urgent Review Group Effort (SURGE) study authors. 2020. “Physical Distancing, Face... Read More
Deputy PM Taro Aso Boldly Affirms Jap Supremacism
•�June 7, 2020
•�400 Words •�83 Comments
Aso: low virus death rate thanks to Japanese superiority Based. Though I suppose that some home-grown cucks don't see it that way: Aso's remarks instantly drew condemnation from opposition lawmakers for being tone-deaf and promoting national chauvinism. “Could you be any more condescending, Minister Aso?” Renho, a vice chair of the Constitutional Democratic Party of... Read More
Hurricane Floyd Gives Corona-Chan Wings
•�May 30, 2020
•�200 Words •�63 Comments
Hurricane Floyd has likely ended whatever meager chances the US still had of containing its coronavirus epidemic, so sealing the fates of far more people than will die in these riots. I am not so much talking about direct transmissions between riots, and rioters and their families further down the line, which may not be... Read More
Coronaskeptic Performance: Sweden, Brazil, Belarus
•�May 26, 2020
•�1,200 Words •�150 Comments
At the outset, I want to set out what this post is NOT about: It is not, per se, either an endorsement or a refutation of "coronapilling" or "coronaskepticism." (Though yes, obviously, I am personally closer to the former position). It is not a judgment on how we should manage the tradeoff between lives and... Read More
Ideological Heterogeneity of the Corona Response
•�May 25, 2020
•�200 Words •�98 Comments
One thing I noted early on is the ideological heterogeneity of the coronavirus response internationally. Yeah, you can dispute precise positionings in the political compass of "coronaskeptics" below, but it illustrates my point. Conversely, that "coronaskepticism" is implicitly right-wing (& vice versa) is just a plebbit meme, if one that many right-wingers themselves - almost... Read More
The Wealth & Masks of Nations
•�May 24, 2020
•�2,400 Words •�94 Comments
There are at least many views on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of lockdowns. The balance of the evidence suggests that they do work, though the effect is confounded in complex ways by people spontaneously engaging in risk-reducing (but GDP-lowering) behavior. Be that as it may, the point is becoming moot, since they are ending across... Read More
Corona-Chan Doesn't Like Fresh Air & Sunlight
•�May 23, 2020
•�400 Words •�27 Comments
This is actually fine. It seems like almost all, or all, of the major "superspreader" events have occurred indoors. E.g., in South Korea, the first and second waves were launched through a cult's churches and gay bars, respectively. A month ago, a Chinese study reported that in 318 analyzed outbreaks in China, just two out... Read More
Corona Scorecard: Is AK Bad, Wrong, and a COVID Fascist?
•�May 22, 2020
•�1,200 Words •�62 Comments
Am I a so-called "COVID merchant" peddling fear and BS, as several conspiracy-minded people from both the Left and the Right have alleged? Or have most of my predictions, such as they were, actually (and unfortunately) panned out? As such, I think it would be useful to have a "tallying up" reference sheet that I... Read More
Reality Disconnect
•�May 21, 2020
•�100 Words •�60 Comments
Just released PEW poll: America: 95,000 deaths, epidemic still raging - just as "reopening" gathers steam. China: 4,500 deaths, epidemic contained, economy humming along to the extent it can in the midst of a global depression. Like, even if those crematorium calculations were legitimate and China's deaths were an order of magnitude higher, this still... Read More
Coronafacts: IFR ≈ 1%, Spread Low
•�May 21, 2020
•�1,000 Words •�268 Comments
As data has crept in over the past few months, it has become incontrovertibly clear what we already kind of knew since the Princess Diamond days - that IFR is ~1%. Consequently, unless Corona mortality "hotspots" were a figment of our collective imaginations, the percentage of people who have been infected with the novel coronavirus... Read More
Film Review: Contagion (2011)
•�May 20, 2020
•�400 Words •�17 Comments
CONTAGION (2011) Rating: 4/5 You can access all of my latest book, film, and video game reviews at this link, as well as an ordered, categorized list of all my book reviews and ratings here: Contagion (2011), which I watched in February - my only film so far this year - chronicles the spread of... Read More
Jumping Ivans
•�May 20, 2020
•�200 Words •�24 Comments
This is so stupid, but I guess I need to address this sooner than later. There are 549,000 doctors in Russia. The suicide rate is 11.6/100,000 (Rosstat). So that's 64 expected suicides per year, or 16 in a three month period. Doctors are more educated than average, and less likely to binge drink. So perhaps... Read More
Corona Probably Out of Control in Dagestan
•�May 19, 2020
•�600 Words •�86 Comments
Russia has been running at ~100 deaths per day for the past three weeks. As most everywhere (~60% across 14 analyzed countries), this is an underestimate - in Moscow, by a factor of ~3x. Something that we can tell when the gross mortality stats became available a week ago, suggesting ~2,000 excess deaths vs. 642... Read More
We Wuz Plague Fighters
•�May 19, 2020
•�200 Words •�20 Comments
@Enopoletus has found some rather interesting anecdotes from an old book, Thirty Years in Moukden, 1883-1913 by Dugald Christie. There is nothing magical about East Asians and containing epidemics. It's just a story of their rise, coupled with Greater European decline. As he sardonically notes, the same country that taught China how to prevent epidemics... Read More
Lightpill: Containing Corona with Far-Ultraviolet Light?
•�April 24, 2020
•�800 Words •�140 Comments
So, "powerful" as Trump's latest ideas on coronavirus treatment are, there is a surprising nugget of wisdom to the following: Back in March 18, rationalist thinkers Roko Mijic (yes, he of the Basilisk) and Alexey Turchin explored the idea of using "ubiquitous far-ultraviolet light" to "control the spread of COVID-19 and other pandemics" at LessWrong.... Read More
Is Rocket Man Getting Dominated by Corona?
•�April 23, 2020
•�300 Words •�47 Comments
N. Korean tests positive for COVID-19 in China There were reports of Corona-chan slithering its way through the northern part of the country and the Korean People's Army back in early March. No way to be sure, since reports from Best Korea are usually speculative and north worth the bytes they occupy on a hard... Read More
Ukrainians Send Chinese Aid on Soviet Planes to USA
•�April 18, 2020
•�200 Words •�144 Comments
Propaganda: The FTFY version (h/t Bryan MacDonald): *** Would indeed be pretty strange for the Ukraine to do it for free, since it has received a grand total of $1.2 million in Corona-related aid, which is basically an insult even relative to Ukraine's economy. I suppose even Ukrainian West-worship has its limits. Incidentally, on that... Read More
The Orange and the Vegetable
•�April 18, 2020
•�1,000 Words •�72 Comments
So with both Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama, and - finally - Elizabeth Warren - having endorsed Joe Biden now is perhaps not the worst time to give my take on US politics in the Current Year. *** As I observed when I left the US in 2016, the bipolar party system had come under strain... Read More
The BCG Vaccine
•�April 15, 2020
•�200 Words •�68 Comments
Just like the theory that everybody has already been infected so IFR must be really low, and/or not too dissimilar theory that there had already been a wide round of coronavirus infections as early as Dec/Jan, I think this is most likely just another "cope" (wishful thinking). Bloomberg: Nations with Mandatory TB Vaccines Show Fewer... Read More
Smoking Protecc!?
•�April 15, 2020
•�100 Words •�27 Comments
Conventional wisdom was that smoking would be a major risk factor for dying from the new coronavirus. But so far data from China and now the US shows the opposite (h/t Wael): Obviously, this is not a valid reason to light up. But this would be good news for countries where smoking rates are high.
Corona Opportunities
•�April 10, 2020
•�900 Words •�198 Comments
Although the idea that "crisis" and "opportunity" are represented by the same Chinese character is "fake news", it is nonetheless true that the two often go together. As we stew in our respective lockdowns, let's think about Corona-chan may make the world better: For the first time, many older people will be sufficiently incentivized to... Read More
Corona Politics: Which Faction Will Benefit?
•�April 7, 2020
•�1,000 Words •�263 Comments
To date and across most of the globe, Corona seems to have benefited the Establishment, whatever it may be at any particular time (with the exception of Brazil's Bolsonaro, who took himself out of the game at the start and is now unable to even fire his Health Minister). Although the MAGA people have made... Read More
Ideology and Corona Response
•�April 5, 2020
•�500 Words •�97 Comments
One interesting thing I observed is that there doesn't seem be any discernible ideological pattern to the decisiveness/quality of Corona responses across the world. Trump and Bolsonaro have performed atrociously, dismissing Corona as a hoax or a nothingburger before switching to proclaiming its too late to do anything anyway and "What About The Line", before... Read More
Should the Third World Lockdown?
•�April 5, 2020
•�600 Words •�42 Comments
For instance, take Sub-Saharan Africa. Median age is ~18 years, and only 3% of the population is above the age of 65 (for Italy, these figures are 45 years and 24%, respectively). Their mortality rates are already very high, so the net impact on their life expectancy will be modest, since age is the single... Read More
The Cost of Herd Immunity
•�April 4, 2020
•�300 Words •�213 Comments
We now have the first hard data from regions that achieved "herd immunity" the hard way - that is, by having Corona burn through most of the population. 70% of blood donors from Castiglione d'Adda, in the 50,000 population region of Lodi, the epicenter of Italy's outbreak, tested positive for SARS-2 antibodies. There's just one... Read More
Corona-Chan Didn't Care Until I Put on the Mask
•�April 2, 2020
•�1,400 Words •�250 Comments
For most of the past two months, Russian disinformation agents respectable Western Establishment voices such as the Surgeon-General of the US, the CDC, and the MSM (e.g. CNN, Vox) have churned out propaganda that masks are ineffective against containing the spread of the coronavirus. In perhaps the most "powerful" take, Forbes even claimed that they... Read More
Reference: COVID-19 Survival Guide
•�April 2, 2020
•�1,700 Words •�37 Comments
This is a reference list of recommendations for avoiding the warm and welcoming if overly suffocating embrace of Corona-chan. Disclaimer: NOT MEDICAL ADVICE! *** Note that I compiled a list of resources for tracking the pandemic. If your country/region is conscientious about testing, and there are no cases in your city/region, there's no need to... Read More
Reference: COVID-19 Resources
•�April 2, 2020
•�400 Words •�3 Comments
This post is a reference list of COVID-19 resources to optimize your monitoring. See also: COVID-19 Survival Guide Corona-chan Didn't Care Until I Put on The Mask *** WorldoMeter Coronavirus has timely updates on new cases and deaths, as well as historical data for countries with major epidemics. Wikipedia: 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic Articles on regional/national... Read More
New "Coronacast" with Robert Stark
•�April 2, 2020
•�400 Words •�11 Comments
Here it is: Coronacast with Anatoly Karlin: Episode II List of topics: Russian Unz Review blogger Anatoly Karlin returns to talk about the recent stats and political implications of the coronavirus pandemic. (Note updates have occurred since recording of show). Check out Anatoly’s updates on the pandemic on Twitter. Topics: Why the US is still... Read More
"Business as Usual" Isn't Even a Choice
•�April 1, 2020
•�500 Words •�169 Comments
A few days ago, I joked on Twitter: Reality is, it is only boomer genocide that isn't a choice. 74% of Americans support a national quarantine, and that even includes 72% of Republicans. In France, there is a near consensus on lockdown at 96%. In Italy it is 94%. In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro - the... Read More
Corona Coronates Orban
•�March 30, 2020
•�100 Words •�142 Comments
The Hungarian Parliament just passed an extremely based and corona-pilled bill that, as summarized by journalist Balazs Csekö, gives Viktor Orban unlimited power and establishes: State of emergency Rule by decree Parliament suspended No elections Spreading fake news & rumors: up to 5 years in prison Leaving quarantine: up to 8 years in prison No... Read More
Shrine Lickers
•�March 30, 2020
•�100 Words •�25 Comments
The Virgin hazmat suit recluse vs. the Chad public shrine licker: However, the actual Iranian government - literally run by mullahs - was less appreciative of their devotion. The shrine lickers were arrested and are facing sentences of 74 lashes and/or imprisonment. And yes, they also closed down the mosques. Ironically, actual theocracies may have... Read More
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Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.