What's Tropical Storm Sara's biggest threat to Florida and Polk County? Rain

Parts of Central America may see potentially catastrophic flash flooding. mudslides and loss of lives and property as a slow-moving, strengthening Tropical Storm Sara bears down on Honduras, the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain, with up to 30 inches in isolated areas.

And parts of Florida may get a sampling next week.

Sara, the 18th named storm of the season, currently has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph but is predicted to weaken, lose circulation and possibly dissipate by early next week.

AccuWeather forecasters said some remnants may join up with a front over the Gulf of Mexico and could threaten the west coast of Florida with coastal flooding and thunderstorms. Conditions could allow Sara to strengthen back into a tropical storm, but the relatively cooler waters of the Gulf won't be enough to allow the rapid intensification seen with Helene and Milton.

"The most significant threat in Florida will be heavy rainfall that can swamp streets, highways and low-lying areas," AccuWeather experts said. "How significant the rain and flooding are will depend on the intensity and forward speed of Sara."

Meanwhile, the storm threatens to dump feet of rain for days on the northern parts of Nicaragua and Honduras before shifting to eastern parts of Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico with the biggest downpour hitting northern Honduras and Nicaragua.

"This amount of rain will trigger major flash flooding and mudslides with the potential for catastrophic loss of life and tremendous damage," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned.

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Nineteen

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Here's the latest update from the NHC as of  7 a.m. EST Friday, Nov. 15: 

Tropical Storm Sara: What you should know

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

• Location: 16.1N 85.5W, about 40 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 205 miles east-southeast of Belize City
• Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph
• Present movement: West at 9 mph
• Minimum central pressure: 998 MB

How strong is Tropical Storm Sara and where is it going?

At 7 a.m. EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 9 mph. A continued westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of Belize early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the center of Sara remains over water to the north of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara

Watches, warnings issued

For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.

Tropical storm warning:

• The entire northern coast of Honduras
• The Bay Islands of Honduras
• The northern coast of Guatemala from the Honduras/Guatemala border westward to Puerto Barrios

What's Polk County's forecast for the next week?

There's a 20% chance of rain today, the it'll be sunny and clear through the weekend with highs near 80 and lows in the upper 50s. The rain chances pick back up Tuesday night and into Wednesday. There's a 40% chance Wednesday. But the big question mark is whether the remnants of Sara bring heavy rain to Florida later next week.

Friday: A 20% chance of showers before 9am. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 80. North wind 6 to 10 mph.

Friday night: Clear, with a low around 56. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 81. East northeast wind 6 to 9 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming east southeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind around 6 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Wednesday: A 40% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80.

Wednesday Night: A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Will Tropical Storm Sara be the next hurricane to hit Florida?

Sara is expected to dissipate or drastically weaken as it passes over Central America. The storm could potentially strengthen again after it enters the Gulf of Mexico but relatively cooler water and wind shear will likely prevent it from intensifying, forecasters said.

Areas on the west coast of Florida may see thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding by the middle of next week.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center

• Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras.
• Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
• Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
• The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates.

Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Sara get?

• As of 4 a.m. EST: 45 mph
• 12 hours: 45 mph
• 24 hours: 45 mph
• 36 hours: 50 mph
• 48 hours: 50 mph
• 60 hours: 40 mph, inland
• 72 hours: 35 mph
• 96 hours: Dissipated

What impact could Tropical Storm Sara have?

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras and Guatemala during the next couple of days.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and Guatemala. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.

When is hurricane season in Florida?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. However, tropical storms can develop at any time.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

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What do the watches and warning mean?

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

What's next? 

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(This story was updated with new information.)