Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Quite an interesting week just gone over jumps, not least in the novice divisions over hurdles as well as fences besides which Windsor staged its first jumps fixture since 2015, so I’ll start at Punchestown on Tuesday where last season’s Albert Bartlett third and Sefton Hurdle winner Dancing City made his first start over fences a winning one by disposing of Shannon Royale, a horse 5lb his inferior over hurdles according to Timeform, and Mossy Fen Park, a horse who’d finished second to Firefox on his chasing debut at Down Royal, by a length and a half and almost three lengths.

Those margins would probably have increased had he also had a race under his belt, seeming to tire after the last, but a 137 timefigure is a satisfactory start mindful how he progressed with racing last season, even if his late sectionals didn’t compare particularly well with those of the possibly underestimated Ifiwerearichman in the opening rated novice event, albeit that race was run over two miles.

Even so, it might be that the most interesting horse on the card going forward turns out not be Dancing City, or even his stablemate in the same race Olympic Man, who might well have won but for clouting four out then making a mess of two out, but another Willie Mullins inmate, Kitzbuhel, who beat established Graded performer Colonel Mustard with plenty in hand in a conditions hurdle on his Irish debut, improving significantly on the form he’s shown in three juvenile hurdles in France last season.

A 135 timefigure was the best of the card over the smaller obstacles, 7lb faster than the smart novice James’s Gate managed in a strong maiden earlier in the card, a race in which the fifth horse Minella Post on his hurdles debut is worth sticking in the tracker for longer trips (has already finished second in a point) having run the fastest last furlong according to RaceIQ by well over a second.

Impressive as Kitzbuhel was, if I had to pick out just one young horse to follow from last week it wouldn’t be Country Mile who caught just about everyone’s eye at Cheltenham but Kel Histoire who is yet another trained by Willie Mullins who won the opening maiden at Cork on the same afternoon.

He ran a faster final circuit, almost three and a half seconds quicker than any of the other hurdles winners on the cards, on his way to a 119 timefigure without breaking sweat and looks highly promising to say the least which probably isn’t a surprise to anyone familiar with his sole previous start, not that many will be given it had come in a mile-and-a-half bumper at the tiny track of Saint-Brieuc in Brittany 13 months earlier.

Framing that race in athletic-speak, Kel Histoire could hardly have tracked a wider course as the race developed, effectively doing all his running in lane eight as the runner-up saved ground in lane one yet despite that significant handicap still managed an impressive surge to the front and powerful finish.

That form has plenty of substance given the runner-up has won all three starts since and the third went on to win a handicap hurdle off a mark of 105 and if I was compiling my own handicap ratings I’d be slotting him in at 138 with a large P, likely to be just as effective at two-and-a-half miles or a bit further as two miles on what I’ve seen of him so far and probably not far off the best of the novice hurdlers we’ve seen out so far.

The aforementioned Country Mile had shaped with enough promise at Haydock on his second start over hurdles to have retained the large P Timeform gave him after his opening hurdles win at Ayr and he retained that usually significant symbol again after his Cheltenham victory in which he looked not to come off the bridle having been held up in a race run at an overly strong gallop (timefigure 135, time from three out getting on for six seconds slower than Long Draw took in the three-mile handicap hurdle) though how much extra if any he might have found had he been asked is hard to gauge.

That 135 figure places him second on the clock in the list of British-trained five-year-old hurdlers this season after his stable-companion Valgrand (141) who was in action later on the card but managed only tenth place off a BHA mark of 139 in the handicap won enterprisingly from the front by Mirabad (126) and from which third-placed Bo Zenith (ran all of the last four furlongs fastest of all) and fifth-placed Spirts Bay (given a very inefficient ride, making his ground from the rear far too quickly) look ones to be interested in next time out.

Handicaps look the route for Valgrand going forward rather than the higher-level events promised by that 141 figure but all the same his performance was hardly a ringing endorsement for the form of the Grade Two won in a slow time and finishing sectionals by Potters Charm last month with all those from that race to have run since performing poorly.

I thought the aforementioned Long Draw won his handicap really well on his first try at three miles, coming from last to first in a race not run at an overly strong gallop (timefigure 111) and it might be that Olly Murphy is a better trainer of hurdlers at longer distances than shorter ones (also got a career best out of Shallow River in a Pertemps qualifier at Carlisle on Sunday on just his second start for the yard).

Over Cheltenham’s fences Jango Baie won the novice chase well in a creditable 144 timefigure, taking advantage of the 8lb he received from Springwell Bay who emerges slightly the better horse at the weights; expensive dispersal horse Caldwell Potter hadn’t achieved anything on the clock at Carlisle on his chasing debut and while he clearly stepped forward here (135, though still 12lb below his hurdles best) the best might not be seen of him over fences until he gets very soft ground.

What did Majborough achieve on his chasing debut?

You had to be up early on Saturday to catch some of the best of the action with Willie Mullins pitching the JCB Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough against two stablemates who had finished fourth and eighth in the Sky Bet Supreme, Asian Master and Tullyhill, in a red-hot beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse.

The gallop wasn’t flat out by any means, with fourth-placed Western Fold still in touch when coming down at the last, meaning the winning timefigure came in at 135, but Majborough looked to be in second gear and absolutely scooted clear from the last, running the distance to the line around ten lengths faster than the Timeform 135-rated Judicieuse Allen managed in a three-way finish to the following rated chase. Taking that into consideration I’d be looking at an overall time rating closer to 148 to better reflect this performance.

Much as had been the case at Newbury two weeks earlier, the ‘bigger’ Saturday card at Cheltenham was slightly less interesting than the one the day before had been which featured more promising types.

Quantock Hills and Teriferma kicked the card off by dead-heating in the JCB Triumph Trial, both emerging with a respectable rather than persuasive 119 timefigure to think they are anything other than short-term handicap types, and any fireworks over hurdles on the clock such as they were left to Jet Blue, a French raider who has had plenty of runs under his belt but even so ended up running a career best by 6lb or so on form ratings on his first start for a new stable while coming in at 133 on the clock.

Exactly what this means mindful that Gold Tweet did something similar on his first start in Britain in 2021 (won the Cleeve Hurdle in good style in a 139 timefigure but well beaten in both starts over here since and landed just a handful of races in France) but if nothing else the race exposed the flimsy credentials of Skyjack Hijack faced with both stiffer opposition and a stiffer track than he had been encountering during a busy but successful time.

Gerimande won the December Gold Cup in a career-best 138 timefigure but with the future in mind Haiti Couleurs and Libberty Hunter took the honours, for me at least.

The former continued his upward progression with a convincing win in a 140 timefigure (bare minimum) in what looked to be a warm novices chase where the first three, all last-time-out winners, came 15 lengths clear.

Libberty Hunter, a horse about whom I was most enthusiastic last jumps season, made a winning return in the two-mile handicap. A 133 timefigure is 6lb below the level he ran to in the Grand Annual last year, but he’s done nothing but improve since put over fences and promises to take high rank among the two-mile handicappers this season with the potential to rate even higher at two-and-a-half.

How Timeform produced Windsor timefigures

Some readers might be surprised that Timeform have returned timefigures for Windsor given that the course hasn’t staged any jump racing since 2005 when it was filling in temporarily for Ascot having called time on jumps racing itself in 1998 while plenty of tracks in Ireland which have staged racing for decades don’t get them.

The reason that Timeform don’t return timefigures from Tramore or Thurles, for example, two Irish tracks that stage Graded races, is that the historic data from those two courses on Timeform’s internal database doesn’t stand up to rigorous inspection and there are no obvious other tracks there boasting similar topographical profiles and configurations from which standards can be adopted.

In contrast, Windsor’s new layout isn’t dissimilar to Uttoxeter, not only in configuration but in elevation profile too, meaning standard times in use there can be adapted to Windsor besides which there is a reasonable body of historic data from Windsor to call upon to inform us what we might expect even if the course in use back in the day used to be a figure of eight.

Had those two different approaches not married up, timefigures wouldn’t have been returned but the conclusion was that standards were robust enough to proceed.

Let’s face it, there weren’t any stars on show, with the best figure (121) on the card coming from Hasthing, while the executive didn’t cover themselves in glory by communicating incorrect additional yardage for the second race, but there seemed to be a buzz around its reinvention which has to be good news given the course will be staging two days of the three-day Berkshire Winter Million fixture (the other day being at Ascot) in January.

More reaction to Energumene return

Last week I wrote that the clock hadn’t been too kind on Energumene’s comeback from a 20-month absence. In fact, it was worse than I had initially figured as a closer inspection of the route Energumene took after missing out the fence after the winning post, ending up on the hurdles course until rejoining chase course shortly before the first fence down the back straight, suggests that he covered around 50 yards less than the mares had done over the same distance in the Grade Two chase 35 minutes earlier.

That results in a recalculated timefigure for Energumene of 124, around 20lb lower than it was initially, and the more you look at the latest Hilly Way the more it seems probable the race is less than the sum of its parts.

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