Analysis: Mariners face key questions ahead of MLB Winter Meetings
SEATTLE – The questions posed at the end of the Seattle Mariners’ disappointing 2024 season remain critical focal points entering the heart of the offseason:
Was the Mariners’ late-season offensive resurgence under new manager Dan Wilson legitimate?
Was it a mirage?
Or was it something in between?
Because how Seattle’s front office weighs those questions will ultimately dictate how the Mariners answer the single-most pressing question hovering over the club’s offseason.
Will they trade away one of their prized starting pitchers?
Put another way: Will the Mariners have to trade away one of their prized starting pitchers to make a meaningful upgrade to their lineup?
The short answer:
No, the Mariners don’t want to trade away any of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo.
Publicly and privately, that has been the Mariners’ stance in the buildup to the Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings, the annual gathering of the league’s executives, scouts, agents and media, beginning Monday in Dallas.
Could those plans change? Could the Mariners ultimately entertain offers for one of their pitchers in the right deal?
Sure, anything is possible, particularly for an organization that has missed the playoffs the past two seasons.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, in a media briefing in late September, didn’t explicitly rule out the possibility of trading a pitcher – saying it would only be “Plan Z” on his offseason to-do list.
Dipoto did express confidence in the offense, which had a remarkable turnaround in the final 34 games of the season under Wilson and Edgar Martinez.
The Mariners went 21-13 under Wilson and over those final 34 games, ranked No. 3 among all MLB teams in wRC+ (125), No. 4 in runs scored (5.1 per game) and No. 5 in OPS (. 764).
Martinez, the franchise icon, has agreed to remain on Wilson’s coaching staff for 2025 in a hybrid role as the senior director of hitting strategy. The Mariners also hired longtime Atlanta hitting coach Kevin Seitzer to the same role here.
It’s possible – and perhaps even likely – that left fielder Randy Arozarena, acquired at the July trade deadline, stands as the most meaningful addition to the Mariners roster this year.
It’s also possible – and perhaps even likely – that the regular lineup Wilson employed late in the season could be the same lineup on opening day 2025, featuring Victor Robles at leadoff, Julio Rodriguez batting second, Cal Raleigh third and Arozarena fourth.
Key questions remain going into the Winter Meetings:
What do the Mariners need?
What resources do they have to fill those needs?
The Mariners are seeking two infielders, and they have prioritize third base and first base. They’re open to the idea of Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss getting the bulk of the playing time at second base, and they’ve been in talks with veteran free agents Justin Turner and Carlos Santana as first base/DH options.
At third base, the Mariners are known to have checked in on Phillies All-Star Alec Bohm, but Seattle balked at the initial asking price of Gilbert or Kirby.
The Mariners are also known to covet Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, who is due $23.5 million over the next two seasons (and had flexor tendon surgery on his throwing arm in October).
The Cubs are seeking proven major league talent in return. The Mariners would prefer to trade from one of the deepest prospect pools in baseball.
The Mariners also reportedly checked in on the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger, but Bellinger’s contract – $27.5 million for 2025, with a $25 million player option for 2026 – would not seem to fit in the Mariners’ budget. That is, unless the Cubs were willing to take on one of the Mariners’ largest contracts as part of the deal (Mitch Haniger is owed $15.5 million and Mitch Garver is owed $11.5 million next year).
The Mariners finished the 2024 season with a player payroll of roughly $145 million. That figure is expected to rise into the $150-155 million range, and the club projects to have roughly $15 million available for roster upgrades going into the Winter Meetings.
The first two months of the offseason have progressed slowly for the Mariners – at least, slowly compared to Dipoto’s usual pace.
The only major league deal of note so far has been the reacquisition of 26-year-old Austin Shenton, a former Mariners prospect and a potential bench bat next season.
The action could pick up at the Winter Meetings after superstar free agent Juan Soto signs his new megacontract, which could reportedly happen as soon as this weekend – for perhaps a total value of more than $700 million.
Another intriguing free agent who could directly influence the Mariners’ offseason is Roki Sasaki, the Japanese ace who is expected to be posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball team in the coming days.
When he is formally posted, that will open a 45-day window for MLB teams to negotiate with Sasaki, who under league rules can only sign as an international amateur (and thus making him affordable for all 30 MLB teams).
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are considered the front-runners to sign Sasaki, but the Mariners are preparing to make a pitch to Sasaki and his camp.
Bottom line: It’s a long shot, but if Sasaki were to sign with Seattle, that would surely change the dynamics of the Mariners’ offseason – and potentially open the door to a trade of one of their established starting pitchers.