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The Future Of Social Networks

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Charlene Li
Charlene Li

Full blog post at http://tinyurl.com/3yc8q5. Presented at Graphing Social Patterns, March 3, 2008 in San Diego. Theme: "Social networks will be like air".

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The Future Of Social Networks Charlene Li Vice President & Principal Analyst Co-author of Groundswell Forrester Research March 4, 2008
 
They are online with their social networks
 
Theme Social networks will be like air.
Components of social networks Profile Relationships Activities Business model Universal identity A single social graph Social context for activities Social influence defines marketing value
My multiple identities
Universal identity [email_address] [email_address] Mobile number
Universal identity foundations Federation (OpenID approach) A few major players will serve as major federation focal points Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc. All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together Data Portability Group is the beginning
Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web “ We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically: Ownership of their own personal information, including: their own profile data the list of people they are connected to the activity stream of content they create; Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.” - Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web
My Facebook social graph Missing Colleagues Parents Extended family School parents Neighbors Babysitter Walking group
My real social graph is much more complex
Let’s end the insanity
Relationships today are explicit – and a pain Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Plaxo
New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents Millions of regular users Search & deep content Ad and content networks Relationship maps
Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based
What people do today on social networks
Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
But it would be more helpful on Amazon “ See friends’ reviews”
How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks Search based on what my friends finds relevant See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of it Compare daily portfolio performance to friends’ Elevate stories tagged by friends – anywhere
The under-rated value of networks
Endorsement value depends on your network Your authority on the specific topic Your network’s interest and authority on the topic The trust level among your network on the topic
The future business model for social networks Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable Each person will have their own “personal CPM”* Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals * From Marian Salzman, JWT
Evolution of open platforms Walled garden services Portal aggregators 1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013 Search freedom Data portability Ubiquitous social networks
Recommendations Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in Develop social applications that have meaning Integrate social networks into existing activities Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks
Thank you Charlene Li +1 650.581.3833 [email_address] www.forrester.com groundswell.forrester.com

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The Future Of Social Networks

  • 1. The Future Of Social Networks Charlene Li Vice President & Principal Analyst Co-author of Groundswell Forrester Research March 4, 2008
  • 2.  
  • 3. They are online with their social networks
  • 4.  
  • 5. Theme Social networks will be like air.
  • 6. Components of social networks Profile Relationships Activities Business model Universal identity A single social graph Social context for activities Social influence defines marketing value
  • 8. Universal identity [email_address] [email_address] Mobile number
  • 9. Universal identity foundations Federation (OpenID approach) A few major players will serve as major federation focal points Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc. All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together Data Portability Group is the beginning
  • 10. Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web “ We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically: Ownership of their own personal information, including: their own profile data the list of people they are connected to the activity stream of content they create; Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.” - Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web
  • 11. My Facebook social graph Missing Colleagues Parents Extended family School parents Neighbors Babysitter Walking group
  • 12. My real social graph is much more complex
  • 13. Let’s end the insanity
  • 14. Relationships today are explicit – and a pain Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Plaxo
  • 15. New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents Millions of regular users Search & deep content Ad and content networks Relationship maps
  • 16. Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based
  • 17. What people do today on social networks
  • 18. Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
  • 19. But it would be more helpful on Amazon “ See friends’ reviews”
  • 20. How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks Search based on what my friends finds relevant See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of it Compare daily portfolio performance to friends’ Elevate stories tagged by friends – anywhere
  • 21. The under-rated value of networks
  • 22. Endorsement value depends on your network Your authority on the specific topic Your network’s interest and authority on the topic The trust level among your network on the topic
  • 23. The future business model for social networks Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable Each person will have their own “personal CPM”* Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals * From Marian Salzman, JWT
  • 24. Evolution of open platforms Walled garden services Portal aggregators 1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013 Search freedom Data portability Ubiquitous social networks
  • 25. Recommendations Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in Develop social applications that have meaning Integrate social networks into existing activities Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks
  • 26. Thank you Charlene Li +1 650.581.3833 [email_address] www.forrester.com groundswell.forrester.com