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Pere Eurotopia
Pere Eurotopia

El Club de Roma celebra ‘La Asamblea Global 2009’ en Ámsterdam con el título ‘Climate, Energy and Economic Recovery’ cuyo principal orador de honor es MIKHAIL GORBACHEV.

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Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009 Climate, Energy and Economic Recovery Photo: Collection Amsterdams Historisch Museum Amsterdam, 26 and 27 October 2009, Muziekgebouw aan ‘t IJ/Harbour Music Hall
Introduction • ince 1976, the Club of Rome has been organising an annual S world conference on what it refers to as the Predicament of Mankind or the Problematique. In its reports over the years, the Club of Rome has highlighted the many underlying issues: food production, resource depletion, population, pollution, energy, poverty, the global economy and so on. • n its first report, Limits to Growth, the Club presented a novel I analysis of these issues, adopting a ‘systems approach’ based on a computer model called World III (see Appendix 1). In a 2008 study, the Australian research organisation CSIRO showed that actual developments over the 40 years since the report’s publication conform very closely to the scenarios described in Limits. • any see the current world crisis as a signal of the encroaching M limits to growth. The 2009 Club of Rome conference will provide a unique opportunity to debate whether this is indeed the case. Front page: The Golden Lion, flagship of the Dutch fleet, is saluted, coming home after 20 years of loyal service in the harbour of Amsterdam; the same venue as where the Club of Rome will have its Global Assembly! Painted by Willem van der Velde jr. in 1686.
• he event is being organised by IMSA Amsterdam, an organisation T created by Club of Rome Member Wouter van Dieren, Chairman of The aims of the Club of Rome’s Annual Assembly are to IMSA. Van Dieren is supported by Piet Briët, Project Manager. The present the results of on-going programmes and future plans, Club of Rome International Secretariat in Winterthur, Switzerland, to exchange ideas and to identify the defining features of Secretary-General R. Martin Lees and the Executive Committee today’s trends and future challenges. of the Club are also providing support. A steering committee has been established, operating under a special entity, the Stichting The issue of sustainable development remains as pivotal (Foundation) “Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009 Amsterdam”. as ever. This has been a major response to the original The Dutch Association for the Club of Rome is involved, helping with message of Limits to Growth, which brought the Club of conference preparations and the Master Classes. Rome worldwide recognition. The key issues in this context are energy efficiency, climate stabilisation and economic recovery. This year’s Assembly is taking place at a key stage of the preparations for the United Nations Climate Change Conference to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009. It is intended that the conclusions and insights of the Assembly will lead to a declaration, as a contribution to the negotiating process for this Conference.
Programme of the Assembly MONDAY OCTOBER 26 Day 1 14:55 - 15:30 Panel with Ruud Lubbers, Mikhail Gorbachev, Ricardo Chair: Paul Hohnen Lagos and Martin Lees 08:00 - 09:30 Registration and Coffee 15:30 - 16:00 Break 09:30 - 10:15 Opening 09:30 - 09:35 Paul Hohnen, Introduction 16:00 - 18:15 The Urgency for Sustainable Economy 09:35 - 09:40 Wouter van Dieren, Welcome 16:00 - 16:25 Jacqueline Cramer, Growth within Limits 09:40 - 09:50 Job Cohen, City of Amsterdam 16:25 - 16:50 James E. Hansen, Latest News on Climate Change 09:50 - 10:05 Ashok Khosla and Eberhard von Koerber, Club of Rome 16:50 - 17:10 Mary Nichols, Proven Practical Solutions in California 10:05 - 10:15 Paul Hohnen, Logistics and Master Classes 17:10 - 17:30 Martin Lees, The Programme of the Club of Rome 17:30 - 18:00 Panel Jacqueline Cramer, James Hansen, Mary Nichols 10.15 - 12:45 Master Classes >> and Martin Lees 18:00 - 18:15 The Enlightenment Transition, LED Solution 12:45 - 13:45 Lunch 18:15 - 19:30 Reception 13:45 - 15:30 The Need for Urgent Action on Climate Change at the National and International 19:30 - 22:00 Dinner Levels Dinner Speech Annemarie Rakhorst 14:00 - 14:05 Paul Hohnen, Reflection on the Morning Musical Intermezzo 14:05 - 14:15 Ruud Lubbers, Introduction Mikhail Gorbachev - W.A. Mozart ‘Isis und Osiris’ from the Zauberflöte 14:15 - 14:45 Mikhail Gorbachev, Keynote Statement - J. Brel ‘Le plat pays’ 14:45 - 14:55 Ricardo Lagos, Special Envoy on Climate Change - R. Strauss ‘Morgen’
Programme of the Assembly TUESDAY OCTOBER 27 Day 2 Chair: Paul Hohnen 08:00 - 09:30 Registration and Coffee 14:15 - 15:30 The Power of Optimism and New Models 14:15 - 14:35 Christine Loh, Development in China 09:30 - 11:30 How must Corporations and Financial 14:35 - 15:00 Michael Baungart, Cradle to Cradle Institutions adapt to the New Challenges? 15:00 - 15:25 Ernst von Weizsäcker, Factor 5: A Convenient Truth: 09:30 - 09:45 Paul Hohnen, Reflections and Introduction Day 2 Increasing Wealth and Reducing Resource Use 09:45 - 10:00 Barry Gardiner, Latest News on Negotiations for COP15 10:00 - 10:55 Company of the Future in the Context of Climate Change 15:30 - 16:00 Break Keynotes by Desso, Method, Philips, Shell, Triodos Bank 10:55 - 11:30 Panel, Stef Kranendijk, Adam Lowry, Harry Hendriks, 16:00 - 17:30 The Message to Copenhagen Jorma Ollila, Peter Blom 16:00 - 16:15 Robert Swan message, Solutions to the Climate Crisis 16:15 - 16:45 Panel Wendy Luhabe, Robert Rubinstein, Liesbeth van 11:30 - 12:00 Break Tongeren, Aart van Veller, Last Call 16:45 - 16:55 Ashok Khosla, Amsterdam Declaration 12:00 - 13:15 Keynotes on Energy, Climate and Oceans 16:55 - 17:00 Amsterdam Declaration to Copenhagen 12:00 - 12:30 Ian Dunlop, Climate Change and Peak Oil 17:00 - 17:25 Bil McDonough, Motivating COP15 and Beyond 12:30 - 12:40 Q&A 17:25 - 17:30 Eberhard von Koerber and Paul Hohnen, Closing 12:40 - 13:05 Charles Moore, Plastic Soup Remarks 13:05 - 13:15 Q&A 17:30 - 19:00 Reception 13:15 - 14:15 Lunch
Master Classes 1. The Sustainable Economy: A New Model from the Netherlands 2. Economic Recovery on the Way to a New Sustainable Economy 3. The Latest on Climate Change 4. Peak Oil, Climate Change and Our Future Energy Supply 5. Practical Steps to a Sustainable Economy: China and the US 6. Climate Change is Key, but What About Food and Poverty? 7. Climate Change and Sea Transport 8. From Resource Efficiency to Effective Use of Resources 9. Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services 10. Sustainable Finance, Green Investment and Capitalism 3.0
Master Classes 1. The Sustainable Economy: A New Model from the Netherlands Fred Langeweg, Rob Maas; Chair: Klaas van Egmond The financial and environmental crises demonstrate that the current economic model is unsustainable. At present growth rates, the world economy would double by 2030 with immense implications for resource use, the climate, waste and pollution and the survival of ecosystems. The new economy must properly recognize and adapt to these challenges. The problems are clear and the contours of the measures required are emerging. An ambitious simulation has been developed in the Netherlands and this will be presented. 2. Economic Recovery on the Way to a New Sustainable Economy John Kay, Franz Josef Radermacher, Wolfgang Sachs; Chair: Anders Wijkman The world economy has been confronted by a financial crisis leading to an economic recession, and governments have directed trillions of dollars to stimulate economic recovery and to generate employment. These reactive measures must be positioned within a broader purpose, to undertake the structural reforms necessary to lay the foundations for a new, low-carbon, environmentally responsible and socially equitable economy. This is a positive opportunity and an immense challenge, to improve human welfare and provide new jobs and opportunities within the constraints of a stable climate and a healthy environment. The failure of the conventional economic wisdom has opened a way to many new concepts, which will be debated in this Master Class.
Master Classes 3. The Latest on Climate Change James Hansen, Mohan Munasinghe, Pier Vellinga; Chair: Crispin Tickell The scientific community is achieving a deeper understanding of the systems and processes which drive accelerating climate change. This understanding is firmly based on the Paleolithic record, increasingly sophisticated modeling and above all, practical evidence from all over the world. In spite of all the negotiations and agreements to date, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are rising at a rate higher than the business-as-usual scenario of IPCC. We are thus facing the risk of catastrophic climate change. Measures to avert this risk must become the central focus of policy. 4. Peak Oil, Climate Change and Our Future Energy Supply Ian Dunlop, Wim Turkenburg; Chair: Paul Hohnen Modern civilization is based fundamentally on the availability of cheap energy, particularly oil. For political, geographic and technical reasons it appears that the supply will not be able to keep up with the escalating demand. High oil prices have impacts across the world, particularly for the poorest sections of the population. And energy use is fundamental as a driver of climate change. Policies and actions to address these two interconnected issues are difficult to define and may be contradictory in their consequences. The level of energy demand in 2050 will be around double the demand today. These issues are real today, but they will be more severe in the future. How can energy production double while cutting emissions by around 80% to preserve a stable climate?
Master Classes 5. Practical Steps to a Sustainable Economy: China and the US Christine Loh, Mary Nichols, Zhang Shigang; Chair: Martin Lees China is doubling its GDP every ten years with consequent escalation of energy use and a rapid growth in emissions. The Chinese are making a remarkable progress in improving energy efficiency, in developing new patterns of production and in re-orienting their economy onto a less environmentally-damaging path. Nevertheless, although emissions per capita are low, China is now the world’s largest aggregate producer of climate change emissions and the prospects are that its rapid growth will continue, as an explicit policy to provide employment and improve the living standards of its growing population. Major transformations are also in progress across the US, and the State of California has been playing an innovative role for many years. The negotiating positions of China and the United States in the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen will be a determinant of the outcome. 6. Climate Change is Key, but What About Food and Poverty? Hans Eenhoorn, Daudi Sumba, Young Club of Rome NL; Chair: Ian Johnson The world community is heavily focused on the key issue of climate change, but we face an array of present and future issues which cannot be ignored. For hundreds of millions of people the food crisis is immediate and increasingly desperate while over a billion people live in abject poverty. The focus of negotiations on mitigation and adaptation is essential, but immediate and early action is needed to deal with problems of poverty and food security across the world which will be greatly worsened by the impacts of climate change: for example, increased water stress, desertification, contamination of aquifers, flooding and drought and extreme weather events. The Millennium Development Goals endorsed by world leaders are now at risk and global warming will aggravate this problem. The poor did not cause the problem of climate change, but they are paying the highest price. Climate justice and humanitarian support will be key elements for the success of the Copenhagen negotiations.
Master Classes 7. Climate Change and Sea Transport Koen Overtoom, Tiedo Vellinga, Stephan Wrage; Chair: Freek Ossel International trade and transportation systems on which it depends have flourished for decades as the process of globalization has accelerated. But sea transport and the intensive activities in ports contribute significantly to global emissions. As energy use per cargo unit for maritime transport is a fraction of the use for air transport, there have been few initiatives and incentives to improve energy efficiency in the maritime sector. Although emissions per unit are low, the aggregate of maritime-related emissions is substantial. The largest port in Europe, Rotterdam, and its sister port Amsterdam, are major drivers towards an agreement aimed at reducing the levels of CO2 emissions for sea transport. 8. From Resource Efficiency to Effective Use of Resources Michael Braungart, Stefan Bringezu, Bill McDonough; Chair: Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek For forty years, the Club of Rome has emphasized that economic growth of the world economy based on waste, overuse and the squandering of resources is not sustainable in the longer term. Scientists, such as Bio Schmidt-Bleek and Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker have produced convincing studies which demonstrate that this is true. Their research into Factor 10 and Factor 4 has shown how high levels of welfare can be attained together with deep reductions in the use of energy and natural resources. For this work they received the Takeda Prize. Other scientists such as “Cradle to Cradle” chemist Michael Braungart and US architect Bill McDonough make the case that effectiveness should be the focus rather than efficiency. Re- design of products to allow chemical recovery and recycling would make possible a prosperous economy with a major reduction of waste.
Master Classes 9. Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services Ashok Khosla with Pavan Sukhdev’s message, Charles Moore, Johan Rockström; Chair: Hans Alders While the international focus on climate change is clearly justified, the threats arising from the degradation of biodiversity and species loss are also acute. Humanity depends entirely on the ecosystems services and the natural capital of the planet. The loss of biodiversity is accelerating and global warming will aggravate this trend. Such issues are not included in our economic models: they are considered effectively as free public goods. To create favourable conditions for the future of humanity, major efforts will be needed to preserve and restore biodiversity and ecosystems, without which the issue of climate cannot be resolved. 10. Sustainable Finance, Green Investment and Capitalsm 3.0 Peter Blom, Alois Flatz, Eberhard von Koerber, Robert Rubinstein, Chair: Otto Scharmer Recent events have demonstrated the instability of the world financial system which has triggered a deep economic recession with direct impacts on the jobs and lives of millions of men and women across the world. Governments are focused on the need for rapid recovery, but this must be achieved within the context of strategies to promote a new path of sustainable economic growth. To revert to traditional models and strategies for finance and growth may bring short-term recovery at the cost of further crises in the future. For this reason, many initiatives are emerging worldwide to create a sound framework for the regulation of the financial sector, to establish new criteria and methodologies for green investment, for integrating sustainability into corporate strategy and to formulate a new conception of sustainable socio-economic growth which respects the environment and considers the prospects of future generations.
Proposals for a Low Carbon Economy All over the world, economic recovery is being linked to what can be called the low carbon economy. An economic model will be presented which shows the effects of sustainability interventions, such as fiscal measures, treaties and regulation and demonstrates that a flourishing economy is feasible with a factor-10 reduction in (carbon) energy use and a similar factor-10 increase in resource efficiency. The underlying model by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) will be elucidated in Master Class 1. The report will be launched by Jacqueline Cramer, Minister of the Environment in the Netherlands.
List of World Master Class Assessors Hans Alders Chair Taskforce Biodiversity the Netherlands, Netherlands Peter Blom CEO Triodos Bank, Sustainable Bank of the Year 2009, Netherlands Michael Braungart Director, EPEA Internationale Umweltforschung, Germany Stefan Bringezu Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Department for Material Flows and Structural Change, Wuppertal Institute, Germany Stephen Byers Chairman of GLOBE International, UK Ian Dunlop Expert on climate change and peak oil, Australia Hans Eenhoorn Member UN Task Force on hunger, former Vice-President Unilever, Netherlands Klaas van Egmond Professor of Earth and Sustainability, University of Utrecht, Netherlands Walter Erdelen Assistant Director-General for Natural Sciences, UNESCO, Germany Alois Flatz Co-founder of the Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes James Hansen Head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Professor of the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, USA Paul Hohnen Associate Fellow, Royal Institute for International Affairs (Chatham House), London and former Strategic Director, Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), Australia/NL Ian Johnson Former Vice-President Sustainable Development (ESSD), The World Bank, USA John Kay Author of The Truth about Markets, columnist The Financial Times, UK Ashok Khosla Co-President Club of Rome, India; Chairman of Development Alternatives Eberhard von Koerber Co-President of the Club of Rome, Chairman and CEO of Eberhard von Koerber AG Fred Langeweg Deputy Director at Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands Martin Lees Secretary-General Club of Rome, Scotland Christine Loh Founder and CEO of Civic Exchange, non-profit public policy think tank, HK
Rob Maas European air quality and sustainability expert at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands Bill McDonough Director McDonough Braungart Design Chemistry, USA Charles Moore Oceanographer and Founder of Algalita Marine Research Foundation, USA Mohan Munasinghe Vice-Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Sri Lanka Freek Ossel City of Amsterdam Alderman on Air and Sea Ports, Netherlands Koen Overtoom Managing Director Commercial Division Port of Amsterdam, Netherlands Franz Josef Radermacher Founder of the Global Marshall Plan, Germany Johan Rockström President, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden Robert Rubinstein Founder and CEO of TBLI, Netherlands Wolfgang Sachs Professor at the Wuppertal Institute, Germany Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek President, Factor 10 Institute, France Zhang Shigang Head of UNEP China Office, China Daudi Sumba Director Capacity Building & Leadership Development, African Wildlife, Kenya Crispin Tickell Author of Climate Change and World Affairs, UK Wim Turkenburg S cientific Director, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Netherlands Pier Vellinga Director of the Wageningen University Climate Programme, Netherlands Tiedo Vellinga International Project Leader Environmental Shipping Index, WPCI, and Associate Professor Ports and Environment Delft University of Technology, Netherlands Anders Wijkman Vice-President Club of Rome, Former Member of the European Parliament, Sweden Stephan Wrage Managing Partner SkySails, Germany
The Sustainability Fair Sponsoring companies and invited institutions will be given an opportunity to exhibit their innovations and sustainability programmes at the Global Solutions Sustainability Fair. It will be a unique chance to demonstrate the potential of the latest innovations and familiarise a key audience and a wider public with the latest green technologies and programmes. The fair will be open to all invitees and engaged press throughout the two days of the Assembly.
The Club of Rome The Club of Rome is an independent global think tank with no particular political, ideological or religious affiliations. Its essential mission is “to act as a global catalyst for change through the identification and analysis of the crucial problems facing humanity and the communication of such problems to the most important public and private decision-makers as well as to the general public.” Its activities should “adopt a global perspective with awareness of the increasing interdependence of nations. They should, through holistic thinking, achieve a deeper understanding of the complexity of contemporary problems and adopt a trans-disciplinary and long-term perspective focusing on the choices and policies determining the destiny of future generations.”
The Programme of the Club of Rome The global issues which were the focus of the 1972 Report, “Limits to Growth” are even more severe and urgent today. At its 40th Anniversary Assembly in June 2008, the Club launched a three-year, integrated programme of international research and consultation on the topic: A New Path for World Development. The Programme now complements the ongoing, worldwide activities of the Club and uses the potential of the internet to engage its Members, its 33 National Associations and its European Support Centre together with experts and institutions across the world in an “open systems” approach. In this way, it mobilises and focuses the best brains available on the critical issues which will determine the future of humanity and of the planet. The research and content are outlined at www.clubofrome.org. The present path of world development is generating imbalances, vulnerabilities, and reform the structure of international institutions to address the integrated inequities, exclusion and polarization which constitute clear threats to the problems of a world in rapid transformation; and broadly, to achieve equitable and prospects of both present and future generations. The Programme draws on the sustainable world development and thus preserve international security and world independent, multicultural and interdisciplinary membership of the Club to clarify peace. the key elements of a new path for world development. It will propose new lines of thinking and action which are urgently needed to: avert the risks and consequences In order to manage the complexity of such an extensive problematique, the of catastrophic climate change; reduce the devastating impacts of human activities programme strategy focuses successively on five clusters of inter- on ecosystems and environment and the overuse of the biological and physical connected issues while recognizing the linkages between the clusters. In each case, resources of the planet; achieve more fairness in the distribution of vital resources a small expert conference develops proposals for action and identifies issues for and opportunities and of the costs and benefits of globalisation; accelerate global in-depth analysis through internet-based, international research networks. The five efforts to eradicate poverty and deprivation of a growing world population; adapt clusters are: Club of Rome www.clubofrome.org International Secretariat Tel: 00-41-(0)52-244-0808 Apollo House Fax: 00-41-(0)52-244-0809 Lagerhausstrasse 9 Email: info@clubofrome.org CH-8400 Winterthur June 2009, Briefing 1.1 Switzerland
on A New Path for World Development 1. Environment and Resources: Climate Change, Energy Security, Ecosystems and Water. 2. Globalisation: Distribution of Wealth and Income, Employment, Economic Restructuring, Trade and Finance. 3. International Development: Demographic Growth, Environmental Stress, Poverty, Food Production, Health and Employment. 4. Social Transformation: Social Change, Values, Culture, Identity and Behaviour. 5. Peace and Security: Justice, Democracy, Governance, Solidarity, Security and Peace. By the end of 2009, the Programme will have analysed and developed strategic leaders in the public and private sectors, to civil society, to the education system proposals covering three critical areas of world affairs within a coherent overall and to the public. Throughout the three-year programme, interim results, policy perspective: Environment and Resources; Globalisation and Finance; and recommendations, briefing and educational materials will be produced, together International Development. And it will also have transmitted its ideas and proposals with specific activities to engage a younger generation and the media. In this directly into the policy process at a high level. It will thus help to bridge the critical way, the Club will contribute to awareness, understanding, public support and gap between science and analysis on one side and decision making on the other. action on the critical issues which will determine the future. The Club has a unique opportunity to use its wide “brand recognition”, its independent broadly-based Three further steps will be implemented in 2010 to complete the Programme: membership, and its access to leading personalities throughout the world to a conference on Cluster 4, Social Transformation, and a conference on Cluster press for a more coherent, systemic approach to the management of world issues, 5, Peace and Security. Finally, an International Forum of the Club of Rome will recognizing the fundamental transformations in progress and clearly facing the be convened in late 2010 to present the integrated results and lines of action. growing threats to the future. This will be followed by a process to disseminate the results and proposals to
Members of the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome • icardo Díez-Hochleitner, Honorary President, Board Member of R • onrad Osterwalder, Rector of the United Nations K the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, University, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations, Japan Spain • oberto Peccei, Vice-Chancellor for Research, R • shok Khosla, Co-President, President of Development A UCLA, USA Alternatives, India • oemí Sanín Posada, Ambassador of Columbia to N • berhard von Koerber, Co-President, Chairman and CEO of E the United Kingdom, UK Eberhard von Koerber AG, Switzerland • eitor Gurgulino de Souza, Vice-President, H Secretary-General of the International Association of University Presidents, Brazil • nders Wijkman, Vice-President, Former Member of the European A Parliament, Sweden • artin Lees, Secretary-General, Rector Emeritus of the University M for Peace, United Nations, UK • sidro Fainé Casas, Chairman of the Caja de Ahorros y I Pensiones de Barcelona (La Caixa), Spain • endy Luhabe, Chairman of the Alliance Capital, W South Africa • ona Makram-Ebeid, Professor of Political M Science, American University, Cairo; former Member of the Egyptian Parliament
Selection of Honorary Members of the Club of Rome • H.M. Queen Beatrix, Queen of the Netherlands • B.F. Paton, Ukraine, President of the National Academy of • H.M. Juan Carlos I, King of Spain Sciences of Ukraine • H.M. Doña Sophia, Queen of Spain • Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of the Republic of India • H.R.H. Prince Philippe, Crown Prince of Belgium • Hugo Thiemann, Switzerland, President of the Industrial • Jacques Delors, France, former President of the European Innovation and Cooperative System S.S.A. Commission • Ernesto Zedillo, former President of Mexico, Director of the Yale • Mikhail Gorbachev, former President of the Soviet Union Centre for the Study of Globalization • Ruud F.M. Lubbers, Former Prime Minister of the Netherlands • angari Maathai, Founder of the Green Belt Movement W and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize 2004 • Koïchiro Matsuura, Japan, Director-General of UNESCO • Manfred A. Max-Neef, Chile, economist and environmentalist • Rigoberta Menchú Tum, Guatemala, UNESCO Goodwill Ambassador and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize 1992 • adako Ogata, President of the Japan International Cooperation S Agency (JICA)
Dutch Chapter of the Club of Rome Board Advisory Board to the Dutch Chapter • Eric-Jan Tuininga, Chair a.i. and Secretary to the Board, Emeritus • Hans Eenhoorn, member UN Task Force on hunger Professor Free University of Amsterdam • Marius Enthoven, Vice Chairman of the Energy Council • Arnaud Jansen, Treasurer, Head of Controlling, ASN Bank • osee van Eijndhoven, Professor in Sustainable Management, J • Karen Jonkers, Board member, TT30 and Sustainability Entrepreneur Erasmus University Rotterdam • Paul de Jong, former Head of Sustainability Department, Ministry of • Ewoud Goudswaard, CEO of ASN Bank Agriculture, The Netherlands • Maurits Groen, Special Agent to Al Gore in the Netherlands • Bas Jurres, Board member, TT30 and Corporate Sustainability • Hans Opschoor, Professor of Economics of Sustainable Entrepreneur Development, Institute for Social Studies • Tineke Lambooy, Board member, Author A world to gain: sixteen • Suzanne van der Pijll, Partner at Schuttelaar & Partners, views on corporate social responsibility Sustainable Innovations in Food, Agriculture, and Human Health • Jeroen van den Berg, Secretary and Education adviser • Paul Rademaker, Professor Internal Affairs, University of Amsterdam • Annemarie Rakhorst, CEO of Search, Environmental Engineering • Louise Vet, Director of the Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO KNAW)
Organisation Global Assembly 2009 IMSA Amsterdam, Prins Hendriklaan 15, 1075 AX Amsterdam Stichting (Foundation) The Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009 • Wouter van Dieren, Chairman IMSA, Member of the Club of Rome • Piet Briët, Project Manager Global Assembly Amsterdam 2009, Senior Consultant at IMSA Amsterdam • Kim Nackenhorst, Project Leader Global Assembly Amsterdam 2009, Senior Consultant at IMSA Amsterdam Websites • www.clubofrome.at/2009/amsterdam • www.clubofrome.org/eng/home/ • www.clubofrome.nl • www.imsa.nl Dutch Members of the Club of Rome • Wouter van Dieren, Chairman IMSA Amsterdam
APPENDIX 1: The World 3 Model The World 3 computer model is complex, but its basic structure is not hard environment in ways that are typical of the hundreds of pollutants the economy to understand. It is based on system dynamics – a method for studying the actually emits. It ignores the causes and consequences of violence. And world by understanding how complex systems change over time. One of the there is no explicit representation in World 3 of military capital or corruption. key features is inclusion of ‘feedback loops’ in the system structure that can Incorporating these numerous distinctions would not necessarily improve the influence the behaviour of the entire system. World 3 keeps track of ‘stocks’ model, however, while making it very much harder to comprehend. such as population, industrial capital, persistent pollution and cultivated land. In the model, these stocks change as a result of ‘flows’ such as births This probably makes World 3 somewhat optimistic. It has no military sector and deaths; investment and depreciation; pollution generation and pollution to drain capital and resources from the productive economy. It has no wars assimilation; land erosion, land development and land removed for urban and to kill people, destroy capital, waste lands, or generate pollution. It has no industrial uses. ethnic strife, no corruption, no floods, earthquakes, nuclear accidents, or AIDS epidemics. The model thus represents the ultimate limits for ‘the real world’. In the scenarios run using this model, full account is taken of positive and negative feedback loops, which can sometimes radically alter the outcome. World 3 also incorporates non-linear relationships. For example, as more land is made arable, what is left becomes drier or steeper or has thinner soils. The cost of coping with these problems means a dramatic rise in the cost of developing the land – a non-linear relationship. Feedback loops and non- linear relationships make World 3 dynamically complex, but the model is still a simplification of reality. It does not distinguish between geographical regions of the world, nor does it give separate consideration to the rich and the poor. It keeps track of only two aggregate pollutants, which move through and affect the
APPENDIX 2: Equilibrium Run Scenario 9: The world seeks a stable population and stable per capita industrial output and adds pollution, resource and agricultural technologies from 2002 In this scenario population growth and industrial output are stabilised and technologies are implemented to reduce pollution, conserve resources, improve agricultural yields, and protect farmland. The resulting society is sustainable: nearly 8 billion people enjoy a high level of welfare and have a steadily declining ecological footprint.
APPENDIX 3: Speech by Yvo de Boer “It is not often that a generation is offered a chance to change the world for the better. But only a few times in the entire record of humanity has a generation had a chance to change the world for good. We have that chance now… to shift decisively towards the low-emission, resource-efficient, financially stable and equitable path that offers the only sustainable alternative to a future of never-ending crises. It is no coincidence that this year the world must reach an ambitious, ratifiable agreement to prevent dangerous climate change just as nations are fighting to prevent the worst globalised depression in living memory. Our financial and economic crisis was the result of living beyond our means, looking for short-term reward, conveniently ignoring the consequences. Climate change, we now know, is the result of living beyond our planet’s capacity to provide the kind of environment without which our civilisations would die. Oil, gas, coal, food and metal prices may look low now, but precarious imbalances in future supply and demand promise soaring prices once more at signs of recovery. In cause and effect, these crises are linked. The high-emission, resource-intensive, debt-driven economic model is dying. Attempts to revive it along the same old lines will succeed only in restoring a living corpse. ... ...At the height of the Great Depression in the 1930s, the new US President Franklin D. Roosevelt focused the will of his own nation in his inaugural address by promising that: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” That is not now the case. We have a climate change shadow, growing darker with every passing year, that has the potential to draw a line under the future of humanity. What is now true is that the only thing we have to fear is the fear to act.” Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC To Globe International, Club of Rome, London House of Commons, January 26, 2009
Assembly Programme

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Assembly Programme

  • 1. Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009 Climate, Energy and Economic Recovery Photo: Collection Amsterdams Historisch Museum Amsterdam, 26 and 27 October 2009, Muziekgebouw aan ‘t IJ/Harbour Music Hall
  • 2. Introduction • ince 1976, the Club of Rome has been organising an annual S world conference on what it refers to as the Predicament of Mankind or the Problematique. In its reports over the years, the Club of Rome has highlighted the many underlying issues: food production, resource depletion, population, pollution, energy, poverty, the global economy and so on. • n its first report, Limits to Growth, the Club presented a novel I analysis of these issues, adopting a ‘systems approach’ based on a computer model called World III (see Appendix 1). In a 2008 study, the Australian research organisation CSIRO showed that actual developments over the 40 years since the report’s publication conform very closely to the scenarios described in Limits. • any see the current world crisis as a signal of the encroaching M limits to growth. The 2009 Club of Rome conference will provide a unique opportunity to debate whether this is indeed the case. Front page: The Golden Lion, flagship of the Dutch fleet, is saluted, coming home after 20 years of loyal service in the harbour of Amsterdam; the same venue as where the Club of Rome will have its Global Assembly! Painted by Willem van der Velde jr. in 1686.
  • 3. • he event is being organised by IMSA Amsterdam, an organisation T created by Club of Rome Member Wouter van Dieren, Chairman of The aims of the Club of Rome’s Annual Assembly are to IMSA. Van Dieren is supported by Piet Briët, Project Manager. The present the results of on-going programmes and future plans, Club of Rome International Secretariat in Winterthur, Switzerland, to exchange ideas and to identify the defining features of Secretary-General R. Martin Lees and the Executive Committee today’s trends and future challenges. of the Club are also providing support. A steering committee has been established, operating under a special entity, the Stichting The issue of sustainable development remains as pivotal (Foundation) “Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009 Amsterdam”. as ever. This has been a major response to the original The Dutch Association for the Club of Rome is involved, helping with message of Limits to Growth, which brought the Club of conference preparations and the Master Classes. Rome worldwide recognition. The key issues in this context are energy efficiency, climate stabilisation and economic recovery. This year’s Assembly is taking place at a key stage of the preparations for the United Nations Climate Change Conference to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009. It is intended that the conclusions and insights of the Assembly will lead to a declaration, as a contribution to the negotiating process for this Conference.
  • 4. Programme of the Assembly MONDAY OCTOBER 26 Day 1 14:55 - 15:30 Panel with Ruud Lubbers, Mikhail Gorbachev, Ricardo Chair: Paul Hohnen Lagos and Martin Lees 08:00 - 09:30 Registration and Coffee 15:30 - 16:00 Break 09:30 - 10:15 Opening 09:30 - 09:35 Paul Hohnen, Introduction 16:00 - 18:15 The Urgency for Sustainable Economy 09:35 - 09:40 Wouter van Dieren, Welcome 16:00 - 16:25 Jacqueline Cramer, Growth within Limits 09:40 - 09:50 Job Cohen, City of Amsterdam 16:25 - 16:50 James E. Hansen, Latest News on Climate Change 09:50 - 10:05 Ashok Khosla and Eberhard von Koerber, Club of Rome 16:50 - 17:10 Mary Nichols, Proven Practical Solutions in California 10:05 - 10:15 Paul Hohnen, Logistics and Master Classes 17:10 - 17:30 Martin Lees, The Programme of the Club of Rome 17:30 - 18:00 Panel Jacqueline Cramer, James Hansen, Mary Nichols 10.15 - 12:45 Master Classes >> and Martin Lees 18:00 - 18:15 The Enlightenment Transition, LED Solution 12:45 - 13:45 Lunch 18:15 - 19:30 Reception 13:45 - 15:30 The Need for Urgent Action on Climate Change at the National and International 19:30 - 22:00 Dinner Levels Dinner Speech Annemarie Rakhorst 14:00 - 14:05 Paul Hohnen, Reflection on the Morning Musical Intermezzo 14:05 - 14:15 Ruud Lubbers, Introduction Mikhail Gorbachev - W.A. Mozart ‘Isis und Osiris’ from the Zauberflöte 14:15 - 14:45 Mikhail Gorbachev, Keynote Statement - J. Brel ‘Le plat pays’ 14:45 - 14:55 Ricardo Lagos, Special Envoy on Climate Change - R. Strauss ‘Morgen’
  • 5. Programme of the Assembly TUESDAY OCTOBER 27 Day 2 Chair: Paul Hohnen 08:00 - 09:30 Registration and Coffee 14:15 - 15:30 The Power of Optimism and New Models 14:15 - 14:35 Christine Loh, Development in China 09:30 - 11:30 How must Corporations and Financial 14:35 - 15:00 Michael Baungart, Cradle to Cradle Institutions adapt to the New Challenges? 15:00 - 15:25 Ernst von Weizsäcker, Factor 5: A Convenient Truth: 09:30 - 09:45 Paul Hohnen, Reflections and Introduction Day 2 Increasing Wealth and Reducing Resource Use 09:45 - 10:00 Barry Gardiner, Latest News on Negotiations for COP15 10:00 - 10:55 Company of the Future in the Context of Climate Change 15:30 - 16:00 Break Keynotes by Desso, Method, Philips, Shell, Triodos Bank 10:55 - 11:30 Panel, Stef Kranendijk, Adam Lowry, Harry Hendriks, 16:00 - 17:30 The Message to Copenhagen Jorma Ollila, Peter Blom 16:00 - 16:15 Robert Swan message, Solutions to the Climate Crisis 16:15 - 16:45 Panel Wendy Luhabe, Robert Rubinstein, Liesbeth van 11:30 - 12:00 Break Tongeren, Aart van Veller, Last Call 16:45 - 16:55 Ashok Khosla, Amsterdam Declaration 12:00 - 13:15 Keynotes on Energy, Climate and Oceans 16:55 - 17:00 Amsterdam Declaration to Copenhagen 12:00 - 12:30 Ian Dunlop, Climate Change and Peak Oil 17:00 - 17:25 Bil McDonough, Motivating COP15 and Beyond 12:30 - 12:40 Q&A 17:25 - 17:30 Eberhard von Koerber and Paul Hohnen, Closing 12:40 - 13:05 Charles Moore, Plastic Soup Remarks 13:05 - 13:15 Q&A 17:30 - 19:00 Reception 13:15 - 14:15 Lunch
  • 6. Master Classes 1. The Sustainable Economy: A New Model from the Netherlands 2. Economic Recovery on the Way to a New Sustainable Economy 3. The Latest on Climate Change 4. Peak Oil, Climate Change and Our Future Energy Supply 5. Practical Steps to a Sustainable Economy: China and the US 6. Climate Change is Key, but What About Food and Poverty? 7. Climate Change and Sea Transport 8. From Resource Efficiency to Effective Use of Resources 9. Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services 10. Sustainable Finance, Green Investment and Capitalism 3.0
  • 7. Master Classes 1. The Sustainable Economy: A New Model from the Netherlands Fred Langeweg, Rob Maas; Chair: Klaas van Egmond The financial and environmental crises demonstrate that the current economic model is unsustainable. At present growth rates, the world economy would double by 2030 with immense implications for resource use, the climate, waste and pollution and the survival of ecosystems. The new economy must properly recognize and adapt to these challenges. The problems are clear and the contours of the measures required are emerging. An ambitious simulation has been developed in the Netherlands and this will be presented. 2. Economic Recovery on the Way to a New Sustainable Economy John Kay, Franz Josef Radermacher, Wolfgang Sachs; Chair: Anders Wijkman The world economy has been confronted by a financial crisis leading to an economic recession, and governments have directed trillions of dollars to stimulate economic recovery and to generate employment. These reactive measures must be positioned within a broader purpose, to undertake the structural reforms necessary to lay the foundations for a new, low-carbon, environmentally responsible and socially equitable economy. This is a positive opportunity and an immense challenge, to improve human welfare and provide new jobs and opportunities within the constraints of a stable climate and a healthy environment. The failure of the conventional economic wisdom has opened a way to many new concepts, which will be debated in this Master Class.
  • 8. Master Classes 3. The Latest on Climate Change James Hansen, Mohan Munasinghe, Pier Vellinga; Chair: Crispin Tickell The scientific community is achieving a deeper understanding of the systems and processes which drive accelerating climate change. This understanding is firmly based on the Paleolithic record, increasingly sophisticated modeling and above all, practical evidence from all over the world. In spite of all the negotiations and agreements to date, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are rising at a rate higher than the business-as-usual scenario of IPCC. We are thus facing the risk of catastrophic climate change. Measures to avert this risk must become the central focus of policy. 4. Peak Oil, Climate Change and Our Future Energy Supply Ian Dunlop, Wim Turkenburg; Chair: Paul Hohnen Modern civilization is based fundamentally on the availability of cheap energy, particularly oil. For political, geographic and technical reasons it appears that the supply will not be able to keep up with the escalating demand. High oil prices have impacts across the world, particularly for the poorest sections of the population. And energy use is fundamental as a driver of climate change. Policies and actions to address these two interconnected issues are difficult to define and may be contradictory in their consequences. The level of energy demand in 2050 will be around double the demand today. These issues are real today, but they will be more severe in the future. How can energy production double while cutting emissions by around 80% to preserve a stable climate?
  • 9. Master Classes 5. Practical Steps to a Sustainable Economy: China and the US Christine Loh, Mary Nichols, Zhang Shigang; Chair: Martin Lees China is doubling its GDP every ten years with consequent escalation of energy use and a rapid growth in emissions. The Chinese are making a remarkable progress in improving energy efficiency, in developing new patterns of production and in re-orienting their economy onto a less environmentally-damaging path. Nevertheless, although emissions per capita are low, China is now the world’s largest aggregate producer of climate change emissions and the prospects are that its rapid growth will continue, as an explicit policy to provide employment and improve the living standards of its growing population. Major transformations are also in progress across the US, and the State of California has been playing an innovative role for many years. The negotiating positions of China and the United States in the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen will be a determinant of the outcome. 6. Climate Change is Key, but What About Food and Poverty? Hans Eenhoorn, Daudi Sumba, Young Club of Rome NL; Chair: Ian Johnson The world community is heavily focused on the key issue of climate change, but we face an array of present and future issues which cannot be ignored. For hundreds of millions of people the food crisis is immediate and increasingly desperate while over a billion people live in abject poverty. The focus of negotiations on mitigation and adaptation is essential, but immediate and early action is needed to deal with problems of poverty and food security across the world which will be greatly worsened by the impacts of climate change: for example, increased water stress, desertification, contamination of aquifers, flooding and drought and extreme weather events. The Millennium Development Goals endorsed by world leaders are now at risk and global warming will aggravate this problem. The poor did not cause the problem of climate change, but they are paying the highest price. Climate justice and humanitarian support will be key elements for the success of the Copenhagen negotiations.
  • 10. Master Classes 7. Climate Change and Sea Transport Koen Overtoom, Tiedo Vellinga, Stephan Wrage; Chair: Freek Ossel International trade and transportation systems on which it depends have flourished for decades as the process of globalization has accelerated. But sea transport and the intensive activities in ports contribute significantly to global emissions. As energy use per cargo unit for maritime transport is a fraction of the use for air transport, there have been few initiatives and incentives to improve energy efficiency in the maritime sector. Although emissions per unit are low, the aggregate of maritime-related emissions is substantial. The largest port in Europe, Rotterdam, and its sister port Amsterdam, are major drivers towards an agreement aimed at reducing the levels of CO2 emissions for sea transport. 8. From Resource Efficiency to Effective Use of Resources Michael Braungart, Stefan Bringezu, Bill McDonough; Chair: Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek For forty years, the Club of Rome has emphasized that economic growth of the world economy based on waste, overuse and the squandering of resources is not sustainable in the longer term. Scientists, such as Bio Schmidt-Bleek and Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker have produced convincing studies which demonstrate that this is true. Their research into Factor 10 and Factor 4 has shown how high levels of welfare can be attained together with deep reductions in the use of energy and natural resources. For this work they received the Takeda Prize. Other scientists such as “Cradle to Cradle” chemist Michael Braungart and US architect Bill McDonough make the case that effectiveness should be the focus rather than efficiency. Re- design of products to allow chemical recovery and recycling would make possible a prosperous economy with a major reduction of waste.
  • 11. Master Classes 9. Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services Ashok Khosla with Pavan Sukhdev’s message, Charles Moore, Johan Rockström; Chair: Hans Alders While the international focus on climate change is clearly justified, the threats arising from the degradation of biodiversity and species loss are also acute. Humanity depends entirely on the ecosystems services and the natural capital of the planet. The loss of biodiversity is accelerating and global warming will aggravate this trend. Such issues are not included in our economic models: they are considered effectively as free public goods. To create favourable conditions for the future of humanity, major efforts will be needed to preserve and restore biodiversity and ecosystems, without which the issue of climate cannot be resolved. 10. Sustainable Finance, Green Investment and Capitalsm 3.0 Peter Blom, Alois Flatz, Eberhard von Koerber, Robert Rubinstein, Chair: Otto Scharmer Recent events have demonstrated the instability of the world financial system which has triggered a deep economic recession with direct impacts on the jobs and lives of millions of men and women across the world. Governments are focused on the need for rapid recovery, but this must be achieved within the context of strategies to promote a new path of sustainable economic growth. To revert to traditional models and strategies for finance and growth may bring short-term recovery at the cost of further crises in the future. For this reason, many initiatives are emerging worldwide to create a sound framework for the regulation of the financial sector, to establish new criteria and methodologies for green investment, for integrating sustainability into corporate strategy and to formulate a new conception of sustainable socio-economic growth which respects the environment and considers the prospects of future generations.
  • 12. Proposals for a Low Carbon Economy All over the world, economic recovery is being linked to what can be called the low carbon economy. An economic model will be presented which shows the effects of sustainability interventions, such as fiscal measures, treaties and regulation and demonstrates that a flourishing economy is feasible with a factor-10 reduction in (carbon) energy use and a similar factor-10 increase in resource efficiency. The underlying model by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) will be elucidated in Master Class 1. The report will be launched by Jacqueline Cramer, Minister of the Environment in the Netherlands.
  • 13. List of World Master Class Assessors Hans Alders Chair Taskforce Biodiversity the Netherlands, Netherlands Peter Blom CEO Triodos Bank, Sustainable Bank of the Year 2009, Netherlands Michael Braungart Director, EPEA Internationale Umweltforschung, Germany Stefan Bringezu Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Department for Material Flows and Structural Change, Wuppertal Institute, Germany Stephen Byers Chairman of GLOBE International, UK Ian Dunlop Expert on climate change and peak oil, Australia Hans Eenhoorn Member UN Task Force on hunger, former Vice-President Unilever, Netherlands Klaas van Egmond Professor of Earth and Sustainability, University of Utrecht, Netherlands Walter Erdelen Assistant Director-General for Natural Sciences, UNESCO, Germany Alois Flatz Co-founder of the Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes James Hansen Head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Professor of the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, USA Paul Hohnen Associate Fellow, Royal Institute for International Affairs (Chatham House), London and former Strategic Director, Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), Australia/NL Ian Johnson Former Vice-President Sustainable Development (ESSD), The World Bank, USA John Kay Author of The Truth about Markets, columnist The Financial Times, UK Ashok Khosla Co-President Club of Rome, India; Chairman of Development Alternatives Eberhard von Koerber Co-President of the Club of Rome, Chairman and CEO of Eberhard von Koerber AG Fred Langeweg Deputy Director at Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands Martin Lees Secretary-General Club of Rome, Scotland Christine Loh Founder and CEO of Civic Exchange, non-profit public policy think tank, HK
  • 14. Rob Maas European air quality and sustainability expert at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands Bill McDonough Director McDonough Braungart Design Chemistry, USA Charles Moore Oceanographer and Founder of Algalita Marine Research Foundation, USA Mohan Munasinghe Vice-Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Sri Lanka Freek Ossel City of Amsterdam Alderman on Air and Sea Ports, Netherlands Koen Overtoom Managing Director Commercial Division Port of Amsterdam, Netherlands Franz Josef Radermacher Founder of the Global Marshall Plan, Germany Johan Rockström President, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden Robert Rubinstein Founder and CEO of TBLI, Netherlands Wolfgang Sachs Professor at the Wuppertal Institute, Germany Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek President, Factor 10 Institute, France Zhang Shigang Head of UNEP China Office, China Daudi Sumba Director Capacity Building & Leadership Development, African Wildlife, Kenya Crispin Tickell Author of Climate Change and World Affairs, UK Wim Turkenburg S cientific Director, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Netherlands Pier Vellinga Director of the Wageningen University Climate Programme, Netherlands Tiedo Vellinga International Project Leader Environmental Shipping Index, WPCI, and Associate Professor Ports and Environment Delft University of Technology, Netherlands Anders Wijkman Vice-President Club of Rome, Former Member of the European Parliament, Sweden Stephan Wrage Managing Partner SkySails, Germany
  • 16. The Club of Rome The Club of Rome is an independent global think tank with no particular political, ideological or religious affiliations. Its essential mission is “to act as a global catalyst for change through the identification and analysis of the crucial problems facing humanity and the communication of such problems to the most important public and private decision-makers as well as to the general public.” Its activities should “adopt a global perspective with awareness of the increasing interdependence of nations. They should, through holistic thinking, achieve a deeper understanding of the complexity of contemporary problems and adopt a trans-disciplinary and long-term perspective focusing on the choices and policies determining the destiny of future generations.”
  • 17. The Programme of the Club of Rome The global issues which were the focus of the 1972 Report, “Limits to Growth” are even more severe and urgent today. At its 40th Anniversary Assembly in June 2008, the Club launched a three-year, integrated programme of international research and consultation on the topic: A New Path for World Development. The Programme now complements the ongoing, worldwide activities of the Club and uses the potential of the internet to engage its Members, its 33 National Associations and its European Support Centre together with experts and institutions across the world in an “open systems” approach. In this way, it mobilises and focuses the best brains available on the critical issues which will determine the future of humanity and of the planet. The research and content are outlined at www.clubofrome.org. The present path of world development is generating imbalances, vulnerabilities, and reform the structure of international institutions to address the integrated inequities, exclusion and polarization which constitute clear threats to the problems of a world in rapid transformation; and broadly, to achieve equitable and prospects of both present and future generations. The Programme draws on the sustainable world development and thus preserve international security and world independent, multicultural and interdisciplinary membership of the Club to clarify peace. the key elements of a new path for world development. It will propose new lines of thinking and action which are urgently needed to: avert the risks and consequences In order to manage the complexity of such an extensive problematique, the of catastrophic climate change; reduce the devastating impacts of human activities programme strategy focuses successively on five clusters of inter- on ecosystems and environment and the overuse of the biological and physical connected issues while recognizing the linkages between the clusters. In each case, resources of the planet; achieve more fairness in the distribution of vital resources a small expert conference develops proposals for action and identifies issues for and opportunities and of the costs and benefits of globalisation; accelerate global in-depth analysis through internet-based, international research networks. The five efforts to eradicate poverty and deprivation of a growing world population; adapt clusters are: Club of Rome www.clubofrome.org International Secretariat Tel: 00-41-(0)52-244-0808 Apollo House Fax: 00-41-(0)52-244-0809 Lagerhausstrasse 9 Email: [email protected] CH-8400 Winterthur June 2009, Briefing 1.1 Switzerland
  • 18. on A New Path for World Development 1. Environment and Resources: Climate Change, Energy Security, Ecosystems and Water. 2. Globalisation: Distribution of Wealth and Income, Employment, Economic Restructuring, Trade and Finance. 3. International Development: Demographic Growth, Environmental Stress, Poverty, Food Production, Health and Employment. 4. Social Transformation: Social Change, Values, Culture, Identity and Behaviour. 5. Peace and Security: Justice, Democracy, Governance, Solidarity, Security and Peace. By the end of 2009, the Programme will have analysed and developed strategic leaders in the public and private sectors, to civil society, to the education system proposals covering three critical areas of world affairs within a coherent overall and to the public. Throughout the three-year programme, interim results, policy perspective: Environment and Resources; Globalisation and Finance; and recommendations, briefing and educational materials will be produced, together International Development. And it will also have transmitted its ideas and proposals with specific activities to engage a younger generation and the media. In this directly into the policy process at a high level. It will thus help to bridge the critical way, the Club will contribute to awareness, understanding, public support and gap between science and analysis on one side and decision making on the other. action on the critical issues which will determine the future. The Club has a unique opportunity to use its wide “brand recognition”, its independent broadly-based Three further steps will be implemented in 2010 to complete the Programme: membership, and its access to leading personalities throughout the world to a conference on Cluster 4, Social Transformation, and a conference on Cluster press for a more coherent, systemic approach to the management of world issues, 5, Peace and Security. Finally, an International Forum of the Club of Rome will recognizing the fundamental transformations in progress and clearly facing the be convened in late 2010 to present the integrated results and lines of action. growing threats to the future. This will be followed by a process to disseminate the results and proposals to
  • 19. Members of the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome • icardo Díez-Hochleitner, Honorary President, Board Member of R • onrad Osterwalder, Rector of the United Nations K the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, University, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations, Japan Spain • oberto Peccei, Vice-Chancellor for Research, R • shok Khosla, Co-President, President of Development A UCLA, USA Alternatives, India • oemí Sanín Posada, Ambassador of Columbia to N • berhard von Koerber, Co-President, Chairman and CEO of E the United Kingdom, UK Eberhard von Koerber AG, Switzerland • eitor Gurgulino de Souza, Vice-President, H Secretary-General of the International Association of University Presidents, Brazil • nders Wijkman, Vice-President, Former Member of the European A Parliament, Sweden • artin Lees, Secretary-General, Rector Emeritus of the University M for Peace, United Nations, UK • sidro Fainé Casas, Chairman of the Caja de Ahorros y I Pensiones de Barcelona (La Caixa), Spain • endy Luhabe, Chairman of the Alliance Capital, W South Africa • ona Makram-Ebeid, Professor of Political M Science, American University, Cairo; former Member of the Egyptian Parliament
  • 20. Selection of Honorary Members of the Club of Rome • H.M. Queen Beatrix, Queen of the Netherlands • B.F. Paton, Ukraine, President of the National Academy of • H.M. Juan Carlos I, King of Spain Sciences of Ukraine • H.M. Doña Sophia, Queen of Spain • Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of the Republic of India • H.R.H. Prince Philippe, Crown Prince of Belgium • Hugo Thiemann, Switzerland, President of the Industrial • Jacques Delors, France, former President of the European Innovation and Cooperative System S.S.A. Commission • Ernesto Zedillo, former President of Mexico, Director of the Yale • Mikhail Gorbachev, former President of the Soviet Union Centre for the Study of Globalization • Ruud F.M. Lubbers, Former Prime Minister of the Netherlands • angari Maathai, Founder of the Green Belt Movement W and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize 2004 • Koïchiro Matsuura, Japan, Director-General of UNESCO • Manfred A. Max-Neef, Chile, economist and environmentalist • Rigoberta Menchú Tum, Guatemala, UNESCO Goodwill Ambassador and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize 1992 • adako Ogata, President of the Japan International Cooperation S Agency (JICA)
  • 21. Dutch Chapter of the Club of Rome Board Advisory Board to the Dutch Chapter • Eric-Jan Tuininga, Chair a.i. and Secretary to the Board, Emeritus • Hans Eenhoorn, member UN Task Force on hunger Professor Free University of Amsterdam • Marius Enthoven, Vice Chairman of the Energy Council • Arnaud Jansen, Treasurer, Head of Controlling, ASN Bank • osee van Eijndhoven, Professor in Sustainable Management, J • Karen Jonkers, Board member, TT30 and Sustainability Entrepreneur Erasmus University Rotterdam • Paul de Jong, former Head of Sustainability Department, Ministry of • Ewoud Goudswaard, CEO of ASN Bank Agriculture, The Netherlands • Maurits Groen, Special Agent to Al Gore in the Netherlands • Bas Jurres, Board member, TT30 and Corporate Sustainability • Hans Opschoor, Professor of Economics of Sustainable Entrepreneur Development, Institute for Social Studies • Tineke Lambooy, Board member, Author A world to gain: sixteen • Suzanne van der Pijll, Partner at Schuttelaar & Partners, views on corporate social responsibility Sustainable Innovations in Food, Agriculture, and Human Health • Jeroen van den Berg, Secretary and Education adviser • Paul Rademaker, Professor Internal Affairs, University of Amsterdam • Annemarie Rakhorst, CEO of Search, Environmental Engineering • Louise Vet, Director of the Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO KNAW)
  • 22. Organisation Global Assembly 2009 IMSA Amsterdam, Prins Hendriklaan 15, 1075 AX Amsterdam Stichting (Foundation) The Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009 • Wouter van Dieren, Chairman IMSA, Member of the Club of Rome • Piet Briët, Project Manager Global Assembly Amsterdam 2009, Senior Consultant at IMSA Amsterdam • Kim Nackenhorst, Project Leader Global Assembly Amsterdam 2009, Senior Consultant at IMSA Amsterdam Websites • www.clubofrome.at/2009/amsterdam • www.clubofrome.org/eng/home/ • www.clubofrome.nl • www.imsa.nl Dutch Members of the Club of Rome • Wouter van Dieren, Chairman IMSA Amsterdam
  • 23. APPENDIX 1: The World 3 Model The World 3 computer model is complex, but its basic structure is not hard environment in ways that are typical of the hundreds of pollutants the economy to understand. It is based on system dynamics – a method for studying the actually emits. It ignores the causes and consequences of violence. And world by understanding how complex systems change over time. One of the there is no explicit representation in World 3 of military capital or corruption. key features is inclusion of ‘feedback loops’ in the system structure that can Incorporating these numerous distinctions would not necessarily improve the influence the behaviour of the entire system. World 3 keeps track of ‘stocks’ model, however, while making it very much harder to comprehend. such as population, industrial capital, persistent pollution and cultivated land. In the model, these stocks change as a result of ‘flows’ such as births This probably makes World 3 somewhat optimistic. It has no military sector and deaths; investment and depreciation; pollution generation and pollution to drain capital and resources from the productive economy. It has no wars assimilation; land erosion, land development and land removed for urban and to kill people, destroy capital, waste lands, or generate pollution. It has no industrial uses. ethnic strife, no corruption, no floods, earthquakes, nuclear accidents, or AIDS epidemics. The model thus represents the ultimate limits for ‘the real world’. In the scenarios run using this model, full account is taken of positive and negative feedback loops, which can sometimes radically alter the outcome. World 3 also incorporates non-linear relationships. For example, as more land is made arable, what is left becomes drier or steeper or has thinner soils. The cost of coping with these problems means a dramatic rise in the cost of developing the land – a non-linear relationship. Feedback loops and non- linear relationships make World 3 dynamically complex, but the model is still a simplification of reality. It does not distinguish between geographical regions of the world, nor does it give separate consideration to the rich and the poor. It keeps track of only two aggregate pollutants, which move through and affect the
  • 24. APPENDIX 2: Equilibrium Run Scenario 9: The world seeks a stable population and stable per capita industrial output and adds pollution, resource and agricultural technologies from 2002 In this scenario population growth and industrial output are stabilised and technologies are implemented to reduce pollution, conserve resources, improve agricultural yields, and protect farmland. The resulting society is sustainable: nearly 8 billion people enjoy a high level of welfare and have a steadily declining ecological footprint.
  • 25. APPENDIX 3: Speech by Yvo de Boer “It is not often that a generation is offered a chance to change the world for the better. But only a few times in the entire record of humanity has a generation had a chance to change the world for good. We have that chance now… to shift decisively towards the low-emission, resource-efficient, financially stable and equitable path that offers the only sustainable alternative to a future of never-ending crises. It is no coincidence that this year the world must reach an ambitious, ratifiable agreement to prevent dangerous climate change just as nations are fighting to prevent the worst globalised depression in living memory. Our financial and economic crisis was the result of living beyond our means, looking for short-term reward, conveniently ignoring the consequences. Climate change, we now know, is the result of living beyond our planet’s capacity to provide the kind of environment without which our civilisations would die. Oil, gas, coal, food and metal prices may look low now, but precarious imbalances in future supply and demand promise soaring prices once more at signs of recovery. In cause and effect, these crises are linked. The high-emission, resource-intensive, debt-driven economic model is dying. Attempts to revive it along the same old lines will succeed only in restoring a living corpse. ... ...At the height of the Great Depression in the 1930s, the new US President Franklin D. Roosevelt focused the will of his own nation in his inaugural address by promising that: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” That is not now the case. We have a climate change shadow, growing darker with every passing year, that has the potential to draw a line under the future of humanity. What is now true is that the only thing we have to fear is the fear to act.” Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC To Globe International, Club of Rome, London House of Commons, January 26, 2009