PACS 321: Internal Conflict and

Violence
Topic 3
Topic 3
Autonomy and/or Secessionist Demands/Violence

• Autonomy and/or Secessionist Demands/Violence

• Autonomy and/or secessionist movements/demands/violence
mainly take place in multi-ethnic or culturally heterogeneous
countries.
• About 160 of 180 or so states in the international system are
ethnically heterogeneous in that ethnic minorities constitute less
than 5% of the population.
• The study indicate that groups demand for self-rule in some 70
countries, while in the other 90 countries they do not demand for
self-rule or autonomy.
• Secessionist movements are most likely develop when certain
demographic, political and economic conditions exist.
Factors Affecting Secessionist
Demands/Violence
• Levine (in Brown , 1996) has identified following factors that cause/affect secessionist
demands/violence:
• 1. Demographic Conditions
• 2. Political Conditions
• 3. Economic Conditions
• 4. Institutional Changes
• 5. External Interference

• 1. Demographic Conditions
• Secessionist demands are more likely when ethnic groups are geographically concentrated in a
particular region. There are three main reasons for this:
• i) When ethnic group is concentrated in a region, their ethnic identity is reinforced.
• When members of an ethnic group live together, they interact with each other members of the
group on a regular basis. They often speak the same language at work, home and social events.
Distinctions between members of the group and other groups– between “us” and “them”–
intensify over time.
Factors Affecting Secessionist
Demands/Violence
• 1. Demographic Conditions (Cont.)
• ii) Secession is seen as a feasible goal when members of an ethnic group
are concentrated into one region of a state.
• Organizing political and military opposition to the central government is
easier when an ethnic group is regionally concentrated.
• The costs of organizing political and military opposition against the central
governments are lower: resources and networks of supporters are easier
to mobilize.
• If the region is populated mainly with members of one ethnic group,
separatist movements will have little internal opposition to independence
and will able to present formidable challenge to the central government.
• Under these conditions, central governments find it both difficult and
costly neutralize secessionist challenges.
Factors Affecting Secessionist
Demands/Violence (Cont.)
• 1. Demographic Conditions (Cont.)
• Iii) Minorities that are geographically concentrated are
more likely to have political institutions of their own.
• Regions, provinces and republics organize political activities
along geographic lines, geographically concentrated ethnic
groups can use these institutions to coordinate their
political activities and mobilize resources.
• Example 1. French minorities in Quebec can challenge the
Canadian State more effectively than the French minorities
in Newfoundland.
• Example 2. Kurds in Turkey, Iraq and Syria
• Example 3. Protestant in Ireland
Factors Affecting Secessionist
Demands/Violence (Cont.)
• 2. Political Conditions
• Problems in multiethnic state begins when one group dominates others.
• Political discrimination based on ethnicity can spur autonomy or
secessionist demands/violence.
• Dominant groups enjoy economic and political advantages that can
motivate the disadvantaged groups to be engaged in secessionist
demands/violence.
• Discriminatory/unequal representation in executive, legislative, judiciary,
the bureaucracy, military and the police can be a major cause of
secessionist demands/violence.
• Example 1. Sinhalese vs. Tamil problems
• Example 2. Armenia-Azerbizan (Nagarno-Karabakh) conflict
• Example 3. The Ossetia problem (Conflict between Russia and Georgia)
Factors Affecting Secessionist
Demands/Violence (Cont.)
• 3. Economic Conditions
• Economic discriminations/disparities can
trigger secessionist demands/violence.
• Example 1. 1971 Liberation War (East
Pakistan-West Pakistan Conflict)
• Example 2. 25% of Russia’s oil, coal and
copper deposits are in Tatarstan
• Example 3. Siberia has 99% of Russia’s
diamond deposits.
Factors Affecting Secessionist
Demands/Violence (Cont.)
• 4. Institutional Changes
• Broad institutional changes-- such as the collapse of colonial rule, the onset of democratization, the
collapse of federal state or the transition to market economy –are often the triggering mechanisms
that convert political and economic grievances into actual demands for self-government.
• Institutional changes alter the political and economic environment, and cause regional leaders to
reassess the benefits of the status quo.
• Institutional changes expose existing grievances and provide regional leaders with opportunities to
voice their dissatisfaction. For instance, after democratization mineral-rich Katanga took advantage
of the weak post-colonial government to declare independence.
• Institutional changes can trigger independence movements by creating new interest groups. For
example, market reforms generally have different effects on regions with different kinds of industry,
which was the case in Czechoslovakia.
• Market reforms generally have great appeal to resource –rich regions: economic decentralization
allows them to enter into contracts with foreign firms on their own, eliminating the central
government as the middleman.
• Market reforms create new interests by making ownership the key to profit.
• The breakup of a political federation can create new political interests and independence
movements. Example, the secession of Croatia and Slovenia from Yugoslavia in 1991.
Factors Affecting Secessionist
Demands/Violence (Cont.)
• 5. External Interference
• External support for one of the opposing parties makes violence much
more likely in secessionist disputes.
• Third-party support turns political struggles into violent conflicts by giving
the weaker side the power to challenge the stronger.
• It also makes escalation more likely and de-escalation more difficult.
• Third parties often try to weaken their adversaries and shift regional
balances f power in their favor by sending arms and advisers to
secessionist groups in neighboring states.
• Example 1. Georgia-Ossetia Conflict (Intervention of Russia)
• Example 2. West Pakistan-East Pakistan Conflict (Intervention of India in
1971)
• Example 3. Tamil-Sinhalese Conflict in Sri Lanka (Intervention of India in
1987)
Preventing Secessionist Violence
• There are different strategies/means of
preventing secessionist violence. Levine has
identified the following ways and means of
preventing secessionist violence:
• 1. Political Solutions
• 2. Economic Solutions
• 3. Limiting External Support
• 4. Through the Role of International
Institutions
Preventing Secessionist Violence
• 1. Political Solutions
• Levine has explained three different political solutions for preventing
secessionist violence. They are:
• i) Federalism
• ii) Proportional Representation
• Iii) Minority rights and civic nationalism

• i) Federalism:
• Federalism can weaken secessionist inclinations and is appropriate in two
sets of circumstances: when ethnic group are concentrated in regional
clusters and when regional dissatisfaction stems from a lack of control
over economic resources.
• Federalist arrangements work to dampen secessionist violence in four
main ways:
Preventing Secessionist Violence
• 1. Political Solutions (Cont.)
• i) Federalism (Cont.):
• (a) Regions and regional leaders have more political power in federal systems. Regional authorities
and parliaments control regional policies regarding education, taxation, resource extraction,
maintenance of law and order that are matters of great interest at a local level. With control over
these important areas, regional politicians in federal system have substantial constitutional powers.
• (b) Federalist systems have formal, constitutional mechanisms for communication and bargaining
between regional leaders and central authorities. This gives the former legal ways of bringing their
grievances to the attention of and influencing the latter. State-wide parliamentary bodies contain
appropriate numbers of regional representatives, and in some cases, the federal presidency can
rotate among regional leaders.
• (c) Federalist systems have regional governments, parliaments, bureaucracies, judiciaries, police
forces, and educational systems. This creates jobs for local population, and political opportunities
for local politicians and elites.
• (d) Federalism deflect hostilities from the central government by creating new political institutions
and political competition at local levels. In federalist systems, local political struggles will naturally
and inevitably develop: political parties will emerge and contest local elections, individuals and
groups will compete to secure positions in local bureaucracies.
Preventing Secessionist Violence

• 1. Political Solutions (Cont.)

• i) Federalism (Cont.):
• Federalism is appropriate for states comprised of many regionally
concentrated ethnic groups.
• Federalist systems allow for the formation of different coalitions on
different issues, and prevent the state parties from contesting ach
other on every issue.
• When regions have different coalition partners on different
occasions, political fault lines are less likely to develop. For instance,
regions A and B might support the same trade policy, while A and C
advocate the same farm subsidies, and B and C promote the same
immigration policy. When this happens, coalitions become forces
for keeping states together, rather than ripping them apart.
Preventing Secessionist Violence
• 1. Political Solutions (Cont.)
• ii) Proportional Representation
• Minority populations often experience that democratic institutions are unresponsive to their
needs and interests.
• When majorities rule, minority groups are often ignored, or, worse, actively discriminated.
• Proportional representation allows for appropriate levels of minority representation in the
central government; it ensures that minority groups will have influence in policy making
circles and legislatures.
• Proportional representation is essential when minorities are scattered throughout a state or
region: federal arrangement cannot be used to safeguard minority interests when ethnic
groups are intermingled in this manner.
• In multiethnic societies, proportional representation is superior to winner-take-all electoral
systems.
• In proportional systems, political parties receive seats in legislatures on the basis of their
share of the popular vote; parties that come in second, third and fourth overall are still
represented
• In winner-take-all systems, only the winning party gets a seat at the table.
• For example, a minority that constitutes fifteen percent of the overall population and
organizes a political party of its own would receive about fifteen percent of the seats in the
legislature in a proportional representation system, if all else is equal; in a winner-take-all
system, it would not be represented at all.
• Examples. In 1991, Turkish party was included in Bulgarian government.
• Labor government in Israel depends on the votes of Israeli Arabs.
Preventing Secessionist Violence
• 1. Political Solutions (Cont.)
• iii) Safeguarding Minority Rights and Civic Nationalism
• One of the key strategies to dampening secessionist impulses and preventing secessionist
violence is safeguarding minority rights and promoting civic conceptions of nationalism.
• Ethnic groups will be less inclined to seek states of their own if they believe their rights will
be protected and if thy are not treated as second-class citizens.
• Protecting the rights of minorities and promoting civic conception of nationalism are critical
in all multiethnic states, whether minority groups are concentrated in particular regions or
scattered throughout the country
• Minorities should not be discriminated against in either political or economic affair; they
should have political, economic, and educational opportunities comparable to those of all
other citizens.
• Freedom of speech and freedom of religion should be enshrined principles of government.
• Minority languages , customs and cultures should be respected.
• Constitutional provisions or laws protecting minority rights should be instituted and
vigorously enforced.
• Minorities should be able to turn to police forces and the courts if and when problems arise.
• Political leaders should work to promote civic, rather than ethnic, conceptions of citizenship
and nationalism.
Preventing Secessionist Violence
(Cont.)
• 2. Economic Solutions
• Economic discontent often creates powerful secessionist desires
• To prevent secessionist movements from developing, central authorities should try
to equalize economic development across regions. Central authorities should also
be sensitive to regional and ethnic complaints about economic discrimination.
• Regional leaders should be included in all discussions concerning anticipated
changes in economic policies.
• Where necessary, federal arrangements should be put into place, thereby allowing
regional leaders to guide their own economic affairs.
• Providing subsidies to poor regions can solve economic problems.
• Rich regions may inevitably resent giving more than they receive.
• The solutions might be to promise rich regions more investment or more
autonomy later on the exchange for paying a price in the short term.
• The long term viability of states which contain brad disparities between regions
will depend on making appropriate trade-offs.
Preventing Secessionist Violence
(Cont.)
• 3. Limiting External Support
• Limiting the role of third party is essential to limiting secessionist
violence.
• Some secessionist movements are indeed created by neighboring
states.
• International powers and the international community in general
can try to prevent neighboring states and third parties from
providing arms and other forms of military support to aspiring
secessionists and parties engaged in secessionist wars.
• Observer missions undertaken by the United Nations (UN) and
regional security organizations should try to identify states that
violate the principle of non-involvement.
• Strong sanctions should be imposed on states that do not comply
with these guidelines.
Preventing Secessionist Violence
(Cont.)
• 4. The Role of International Institutions
• In theory, international institutions can play a pivotal role in ensuring that
states treat their minorities well.
• The United Nations and regional security organizations can offer to
mediate conflict.
• International financial institutions, such as the World Bank, can use their
economic leverage to induce countries to respect minority rights and hold
fair elections.
• International organizations can impose economic sanctions on countries
that violate individual and minority rights on a regular basis.
• In practice, there are limits to what international institutions can do to
turn despotic nationalists into liberal democrats.
• However, in actuality, the United Nations is better at keeping peace
agreements than inducing states to behave or compelling parties to put
down their arms.