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Geography

Lecture – 103
Theories of Population Growth (Part 02)
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Theories of Population Growth (Part 02)

Other Contemporary Theories in Population Growth

Doubleday’s Diet Theory:

 Doubleday argued that when the quantity of food supply is greater, the rate of

population increase will be lower.

 He distinguished between the Plethoric state, characterized by good food supply and

low fertility, and the Deplethoric state, characterized by food shortages and high

fertility.

 Doubleday believed that leanness in plants and animals affected fertility. Overfed plants

could be revived through methods such as ringing the bark or extreme lopping.

 He observed that thin birds or animals and individuals on a vegetarian or rice-rich diet

had higher fertility, while bulky or fat individuals had lower fertility.

 Doubleday divided society into three groups: the affluent, the poor with less food supply

(experiencing rapid population increase), and the middle group with stable numbers.

 He concluded that the increase or decrease in population depended on the numerical

proportion of these three groups in society.

 Doubleday also proposed that the rich have fewer children, leading to the transfer of

wealth to the poor and subsequent redistribution.

 Criticisms of Doubleday's theory include the lack of scientific basis for the inverse

relationship between food supply and fertility, discrepancies between theory and real-

world observations, and the oversimplification of factors influencing fertility and

population dynamics.
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 Critics also questioned the presumption that fatness is solely linked to fertility and the

idea that socialism would automatically arise through the distribution of wealth by

nature.

 Confusion between fertility and fecundity, as well as the limited impact of diet on

fecundity, were additional criticisms of Doubleday's theory.

Protein Consumption Theory by Castro’s:

 Jouse De Castro's Protein Consumption Theory suggests a link between protein

consumption and fertility.

 Experiments on rats showed that higher protein intake leads to lower fecundity, while

lower protein intake increases fecundity.

 Castro argued that fatness is influenced by protein consumption, with a protein-rich

diet decreasing fertility.

 The theory highlights the relationship between liver function and reproductive capacity.

 Critics note that high fertility is observed in developed countries despite increased

protein consumption.

 Other factors such as poverty, imbalanced food, and cultural influences also affect

population growth.

 Economists question the theory's exclusive focus on diet and its claim that fertility

declines with economic development.

Population Growth Theory by Michael Thomas Sadler:

 Michael Thomas Sadler, a British social reformer and economist, proposed the "Destiny

Theory" in his book "The Law of Population."

 Sadler believed that the law governing the growth of animals and plants is the same

as the law governing human population growth.

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 According to Sadler, as population density increases, fertility rates decrease. In low-

density agricultural or pastoral countries, fertility rates are higher due to hardworking

individuals.

 Sadler criticized Malthus's idea of geometric population growth and arithmetic food

supply growth, arguing that density increases with population, leading to lower fertility

rates.

 He rejected the concept of positive checks on population growth and preventive birth

control measures proposed by Malthus.

 Sadler emphasized a connection between population and food supply, suggesting that

increasing fertility rates would enable sufficient food production to meet needs.

 Sadler also claimed that increasing population density leads to an unhealthy

atmosphere and higher death rates, with the birth rate compensating for population

loss.

 Critics pointed out that Sadler did not differentiate between fecundity and fertility

and lacked biological evidence to support the idea that density affects both.

 In many high-density countries, fertility rates remain high, contradicting Sadler's

theory.

 Sadler's statements about decreasing fertility rates with increasing density and the

compensatory increase in fertility rates are self-contradictory.

 His claim that industrialization leads to a decline in population growth has not been

proven, especially in the case of countries like India.

 Overall, while Sadler's theory offered optimism, it faced criticism due to inconsistencies

and the lack of empirical evidence supporting his claims.

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Herbert Spencer's Biological Theory:

 Herbert Spencer, an English philosopher and sociologist, presented the biological theory

of population in his book "The Principles of Biology."

 Spencer argued that fecundity decreases as life becomes more complex.

 His theory is considered a natural theory of population, similar to the theories of Sadler

and Doubleday.

 According to Spencer, there is an antagonism between individuation (survival) and

genesis (reproduction). When individuals focus on personal development, the desire for

reproduction decreases, resulting in lower population growth.

 Rural individuals with simpler lives tend to have higher fertility rates, while industrial

societies with more complex lives, educational pressures, and mental taxation

experience lower fertility rates.

 Spencer identified four situations regarding the relation between individuation and

genesis: high genesis and low individuation among the poor, low genesis and high

individuation among the rich, improved individuation when genesis is low, and high

genesis when individuation is low among the poor.

 High fertility leads to lower individuation, increased death rates, and decreased life

expectancy. Spencer suggested that decreasing the birth rate would increase life

expectancy.

 Spencer's theory is rooted in the theory of evolution, stating that fertility rates are

higher in smaller creatures. He applied this concept to human fertility as well.

 He divided people into three groups: the poor with high fertility, the middle class with

correspondingly low fertility, and the developed or complex-living individuals with

fairly low fertility.

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 According to Spencer, educated women from affluent families have lower reproductive

power due to their education and complex lives.

 Spencer believed that increasing population was beneficial as it provides more

manpower for exploiting natural resources and raising socio-economic and cultural

standards.

 Critics of Spencer's theory argue that it is more of a biological theory than a

comprehensive population theory.

 The idea that fertility decreases with a more complex life lacks empirical evidence, as

high fertility rates are observed in rich families and industrialized societies.

 Population growth is a complex phenomenon that cannot be solely explained by

biological factors.

 The assumption that educated women with high individuation would be relatively

infertile is not realistic, as educated women can still have high reproductive power.

 Spencer's theory linking fertility to the natural process of individuation lacks

justification, especially considering the high birth rates in Western countries during his

time.

Leibenstein's Motivational Theory of Population Growth:

 Leibenstein's Motivational Theory of Population Growth is part of his Critical Minimum

Effort Thesis on economic development.

 The theory suggests that the rate of population growth is influenced by the level of per

capita income, which, in turn, depends on the stage of economic development.

 Leibenstein's view is based on Dumont's "Social-capillarity Thesis," which states that as

per capita income increases, the desire to have more children as productive agents

decreases.
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 This means that as per capita income rises with economic development, the fertility

rate declines, while the mortality rate also decreases due to improved public health

measures.

 However, the decline in the mortality rate is faster than the decline in the fertility

rate, creating a "fertility gap" that widens over time.

 Leibenstein explains the fertility gap in terms of the cost-benefit analysis of raising an

additional child, considering consumption utility, productive utility, and old age

security utility as the benefits parents derive from an additional child.

 The costs of raising an additional child include direct costs (such as feeding, clothing,

and education) and indirect costs (such as foregone opportunities and reduced mobility

for parents).

 Leibenstein identifies three effects that influence utilities and costs during economic

development: the income effect, survival effect, and occupational distribution effect.

 The income effect shows that as per capita income increases, consumption utility

remains constant, while security and productive utilities decline.

 Leibenstein's motivational theory relates to different stages of economic development,

where an increase in per capita income initially raises the growth rate of population

but eventually leads to a decline in fertility rates.

 However, Leibenstein's theory has received criticism for not acknowledging the role of

declining mortality rates and socio-cultural factors in birth rate decline, as well as

neglecting the importance of state efforts in reducing birth rates.

 The theory suggests that motivations for additional children are stronger at lower

levels of per capita income and decline as per capita income increases, along with

increasing costs and decreasing utilities.

 These patterns are closely linked to different stages of economic development.

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Social Theories on Population Growth:

1. Social Capillarity Theory:(Arsene Dumont)

In 1890, French scholar Arsene Dumont introduced the theory known as "Social

Capillarity." Dumont proposed that in a civilized society, the fertility behavior of the

population is governed by the principle of social capillarity.

This principle recognizes that every society has a hierarchical social order, where

individuals in higher positions enjoy greater prestige compared to those in lower

positions.

According to Dumont, individuals consistently strive to improve their social status and

move up in the social hierarchy. However, having a large family is seen as an obstacle

to upward social mobility.

Dumont attributed variations in fertility among different individuals to their aspiration

to ascend in the social order, which he referred to as social capillarity. This desire to

advance socially is distinct from the pursuit of power or wealth to dominate others.

While the principle of social capillarity exists in all societies, it is more influential in

communities characterized by high social mobility. Conversely, in societies where social

status and caste systems are rigid, social capillarity has limited impact.

Dumont argued that poverty is not the cause of high fertility. Drawing from

demographic data in France, he contended that regions with high fertility rates are

often distant from urban centers and plagued by ignorance and poverty.

Similarly, Dumont refuted the notion that wealth is the cause of low fertility, as both

wealth and low fertility are outcomes of the desire to ascend in the social hierarchy. He

proposed that the principle of social capillarity explains fertility differentials not only

within a country but also between different countries.

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The principle of social capillarity was the first logical attempt to explain fertility

transition, and its influence can be seen in subsequent writings. For example, Kingslay

Davis' theory of change and response in fertility also acknowledges the role of the desire

for social advancement in declining fertility.

Even today, the principle of social capillarity remains relevant in explaining variations

in fertility levels within and between countries. However, the theory received criticism

for lacking substantial statistical evidence. Nevertheless, Dumont deserves credit for

highlighting the importance of investigating individuals' psychological attributes in their

social context when explaining fertility levels.

Theory of Increasing Prosperity(L. Brentano):

 In 1910, L. Brentano proposed the Theory of Increasing Prosperity as an explanation

for fertility differentials.

 Brentano argues that variations in material prosperity are key factors influencing

fertility differences among different groups of people.

 Human beings are driven by pleasure, but the sources of pleasure vary among different

groups.

 Economically disadvantaged individuals, with limited alternative sources of pleasure,

tend to compensate for this deprivation through sexual indulgence, resulting in higher

fertility levels.

 Wealthy individuals, on the other hand, have numerous competing pleasures outside

the family sphere.

 Brentano suggests that a decline in fertility levels is a result of progress in technology,

science, industry, and commerce, which provide more pleasure options accessible to a

growing population.
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 To pursue these pleasures, individuals need material means, and they face a choice

between family size and seeking pleasure.

 Brentano clarifies that a decline in birth rates with increasing prosperity does not

imply increased sexual abstinence.

 However, Brentano fails to distinguish between sexual enjoyment and the pleasure

derived from parenthood.

 For the economically disadvantaged, sexual indulgence and the desire for offspring are

interconnected, whereas this connection does not hold true for the wealthy.

 Brentano's theory suggests that the poor's high birth rates are influenced by their

reliance on sexual indulgence due to limited contraceptive knowledge, whereas

ignorance, rather than pleasure, determines fertility levels.

 Among the wealthy, there is no increase in sexual abstinence, and the choice lies

between parenthood and alternative pleasures.

Boserup Theory of Agricultural Development:

Boserup Theory: Boserup's theory focuses on the causes and processes of agricultural

development, challenging the classical economist Malthus and proposing an alternative

perspective.

Population Pressure: Boserup argues that agricultural development is driven by population

pressure, meaning that the increasing population creates a compulsion for agricultural

progress.

Patterns and Techniques: The development of cultivation patterns and techniques is

influenced by the growth of the population, according to Boserup's theory.

Examination of African and Latin American Countries: Boserup supports her contention

by examining the agricultural development in various African and Latin American

countries.
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John Stuart Mill:

 John Stuart Mill's central claim was that fertility rates are significantly influenced by

the style of living.

 Rather than pursuing excessive riches, the ideal condition is one in which all members

of a community are economically comfortable.

 The population will stabilise and people will advance in terms of culture, morals, and

society at this optimum position.

Theory of wealth flows by John Caldwell (1976):

 The intergenerational movements of money and services affect fertility trends.

 Parents will prefer to have big families if there are flows from children to their parents.

 Parents will choose to have small families if flows run from them to their kids.

 Lower fertility depends heavily on the family's "emotional" nucleation.

 Parents start to prioritise their children and grandkids above their forebears and

extended relatives.
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