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INTRODUCTION TO ESTIMATE PROCESS
INTRODUCTION
1. Decision making is at the heart of the exercise of command. As
commanders of any rank badge you are paid to think and lead men into
combat. You will need to create order from complexity in extremes of
operational pressure. During operations, soldiers, ratings or airmen will
find things more complex, exposed to greater threats and perhaps appear
more scared than you. It is therefore essential for a commander to apply
rigour in his analysis and work hard to best protect them. To do this, the
commander needs to be professional, understand his situation and provide
clear and credible direction that will inform and inspire his men.
2. When faced with a problem, people are used to making quick
decisions, and tend to form a ‘plan’ as a result of a ‘feeling’ or intuition.
This is important and every problem you face you should learn to trust
your intuition more. Intuition is borne of experience and knowledge so the
more military experience you get and the more you analyse and learn the
better your intuition will be. Therefore, in order to enhance the way you
think you should use your intuition and complement it with an analysis
tool. Such tool is what the military refers to as an estimate process. The
way you think, act and lead your troops will be enhanced the more you buy
in to, understand, and apply the estimate process.
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3. The Estimate Process is a logical process of reasoning by which a
commander faced with an ill structured problem, arrives at a decision in
order to achieve his mission. This involves following a logical sequence by
considering all relevant factors and harnessing both the commanders
intuition and experience as well as staff procedural approaches.
Commanders at all levels use estimates of one form or another. They may
have different titles such as appreciation or assessments and be conducted
in different ways, but there is a consensus that rational planning depends
on formal analysis. It is command led rather than staff driven. In practice,
planning is neither strictly linear nor a sequential process.
4. The British Army and by extension the Nigerian Armed Forces
uses 3 recognized estimate methods: the Operational Estimate, the Tactical
Estimate and the Combat Estimate also referred to as the 7 Questions.
Being a common template it allows planning consistency between people,
enables greater inter-operability at all levels. It also allows other people to
take over in the middle of a problem, knowing what has already been done.
Crucially, it is an aid when tired or under time pressure forcing you to
make sure you consider all relevant factors. The estimate does not
however standardise the output but merely the process of how we think.
Therefore the content of the process is as individual as you are. You will
use the estimate throughout your careers and it will require practice and
discipline to become natural. In as much as we will discuss about the types
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of estimate, the focus of the presentation is on the tactical and combat
estimates.
AIM
5. The aim of the presentation is to introduce students of Junior
Course 88 to the Estimate Process as a Military Decision Making Process
(MDMP) tool.
SCOPE
6. To achieve this aim, the lecture will cover:
a. Conduct of the Estimate.
b. The 3-Column Format.
c. The Operational Estimate
d. The Tactical Estimate.
e. The Combat Estimate.
CONDUCT OF THE ESTIMATE
7. The Estimate Process involves activity by both the commander and
his staff but the commander is responsible for the direction of the decision
making cycle. He must be fully involved in the Estimate at its initial stage
and, as he makes the decision, he has to be involved in its final stage. The
extent to which the commander is involved in the detailed object analysis
in between will depend on a number of considerations, including the
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prevailing situation (in particular, the time available to make a decision) as
well as the state of training and experience of the staff. Other
considerations are the level of decision making required, the potential
complexity of the required decision as well as the style and personality of
the commander himself. Furthermore, there could be a need for the
commander to work flexibly. He might be drawn away from the HQ, for
reconnaissance or visits to subordinate units or higher HQs, during the
development of the plan.
8. The staff is responsible for completing the bulk of the estimate under
the direction of the commander, or his principal general staff officer. At
lower tactical levels the staff is concerned with detailed evaluation of
information and the conduct of staff checks on behalf of the commander.
At the higher tactical levels and at the operational level (particularly in
joint and combined operations), the staff will often be required to develop
possible courses of action, for the commander to compare and decide
upon. While the staff may present the commander with courses of action,
they do not make the decision. The Estimate Process requires open access
to the commander for the staff to obtain clarification and advice as
necessary.
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THE 3 – COLUMN FORMAT
9. The Estimate Process can be used in conjunction with a ‘3 – Column
Format’ analysis technique. This is an effective technique that produces a
range of useful and accurate outputs when applied intelligently. It
contributes to the development of a winning concept and a workable plan.
The 3-column format is a means of looking at information and deriving a
useful output. It is used extensively in Campaign Planning, but is not
restricted to this process. An example of the 3 – Column Format is on the
screen. It is a logical sequence of establishing tasks and other outputs from
your analysis and consideration of factors. Factors are annotated in the left
column, your deduction is written in the middle column (and therefore this
needs to be the widest column) with your output (another effect, a task, a
constraint or a question/Request for Information (RFI)) in the right hand
column. The right hand column therefore becomes a to-do list. The key to
3-column format is ensuring that the output, in column 3, is a tangible
action that can be taken forward rather than just a piece of useful
information. It may be however that the output is merely ‘What I must
consider in my future actions’. Keep asking the question ‘so what?’ until
you have exhausted the derivations. A cursory look at this format
necessitates the definition of certain terms.
10. Factor. A factor is a broad subject area that will affect planning,
for example, enemy or terrain. It is tangible and in its simplest form, a
statement of fact or a question.
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11. Analysis. Analysis is the drawing of a logical conclusion from a
factor by mentally asking the question ‘so what, how does this affect my
ability to produce a solution which resolves the problem?’ Analysis is the
key secret to a sound plan. If maximum benefit is to be derived from the
estimate, its analysis must not be just a ‘speeding through’ to complete the
process. In this regard, think about the ‘so whats’ to aid your analysis and
don't just present facts. The products of analysis can be expressed in
several forms.
12. Planning Guidance. Planning Guidance (PG) is the conclusion of a
thought process, which will guide and focus further work.
13. Focused Questions. Focused Questions (FQ) are specific questions
normally posed by the commander to the staff.
14. Staff Tasks. Staff Tasks are specific direction from the
commander to the staff to conduct certain work/analysis.
15. Tasks. A task which has been identified by the process of analysis,
and might be included in the plan, depending on the eventual course of
action (COA) selected.
16. Constraints. A constraint is something that may limit plan.
17. Commander’s Critical Information Requirements. Commander’s
Critical Information Requirements (CCIRs) are questions that must be
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answered to further the process. In some cases, the question to a CCIR
may be so critical that work cannot continue until it has been obtained.
However, in other cases, assumptions can be made and stated in order for
work to progress.
18. Clarification. A point of clarification normally means that further
explanation must be obtained from the superior headquarters.
OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE
19. The Operational Estimate is a problem solving tool that helps a Joint
Force Commander (JFC) to analyse an ill-structured problem. The process
is rational in that it progresses logically from factor to deduction, but the
JFC is not constrained to objective analysis alone. While his intellect and
practical ability will inform his decision making, his creativity and vision
are more likely to prove decisive. The Operational Estimate is most
suitable for complex situations at the joint operational level. This means it
can be used for multi-agency, multi-national and coalition operations with
long lead times. It is generally collaborative and uses the campaign
planning concepts to aid analysis and derive deeper understanding of the
operational level problem.
20. The Campaign planning concepts include Centre of Gravity, decisive
conditions, supporting effects, branches and sequels, phasing and lines of
operation. Others are operational pause, culminating point and campaign
fulcrum. You will get to understand these concepts as we go into the
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detailed teachings on the estimate process. The Operational Estimate
consists of 6 stages and these are: Understand the operating environment,
understand the problem, formulation of potential courses of action,
development and validation of courses of action, course of action
evaluation and commanders decision and development of the plan.
THE TACTICAL ESTIMATE
21. The Tactical Estimate is used at the formation or component level.
For example, the Nigerian Navy uses the maritime tactical estimate. It is
usually employed when time for planning is measured in days, not hours.
Multiple options are considered under very complex situations. Battles
and engagements are planned and executed at the tactical level in order to
achieve operational objectives. The tactical level requires MDMP that span
both the complex long lead time planning inherent in expeditionary
deployment and rapid changes of mission executed by formations to
generate tempo. The Tactical Estimate consists of analysis in 6 linked
stages, which are common in format, process and outputs to the
Operational Estimate. The 6 steps are as follows:
a. Step 1 - Review of the Situation.
b. Step 2 - Identify and Analyse the Problem.
(1) Step 2A - Mission Analysis.
(2) Step 2B - Initial Object Analysis.
(3) Step 2C - Commander’s Initial Conclusions.
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c. Step 3 - Formulation of Potential Courses of
Action (CoA).
d. Step 4 - Development and Validation of CoAs.
e. Step 5 - CoA Evaluation.
f. Step 6 - Commander’s Decision.
22. Step 1 - Review of the Situation. Step 1 establishes the
operational context for the tactical problem. It ensures that the tactical
level commander and his staff understand the context of the operations
within the joint campaign plan. At the end of Step 1, the operational
context and what is logistically possible should be clear to the commander
and the staff. An initial Warning Order (WngO 1) may be sent at this
stage.
23. Step 2 – Identify and Analyse the Problem. Step 2 consists
of 2 parts, which are conducted concurrently by the commander and the
staff. The commander analyses the mission, and the staff the object of the
mission. To ensure that the work is coherent, the COS should ensure that a
plan for this key staff work is drawn up and implemented. At this stage, it
may be possible to include an Effects Schematic to show the commander’s
early thoughts. A sample of Effects Schematics is shown on the screen.
24. Step 3 - Formulation of Potential Courses of Action. A number of
workable CoAs should be apparent to the commander at the end of Step 2.
The direction that the commander gives in formulation of potential CoAs
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clearly states what has to be accomplished, and creates the framework
within which the remainder of the estimate is conducted. At this point, the
ends should be clear, and possible ways and means are beginning to
emerge.
25. Step 4 – Development and Validation of Courses of Action. In
Step 4, the staff’s task is to develop and validate the commander’s
potential CoA’s in order to create detailed and workable CoAs that can be
tested against one another as to their likelihood of success in Step 5. The
output of Step 4 is a CoA Summary, which contains the key points given
by the commander, allocates resources, and develops the concept of
operations.
26. Step 5 – Courses of Action Evaluation. The evaluation of CoAs
identifies the advantages and disadvantages of each and allows the
commander to make an informed judgment to select a winning concept.
The CoAs are compared using a combination of Textual Analysis,
Wargaming and Operational Analysis (OA). This should determine which
CoA will most likely achieve the desired effects most efficiently and at
acceptable risk.
27. Step 6 - The Commander’s Decision. The Commander’s Decision
is the logical result of the Estimate Process. The commander decides upon
one of the possible CoAs, having taken into account the advantages and
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disadvantages of each in comparison with the likely enemy activity. The
commander’s decision constitutes the basic directive for completing
planning and for all future actions.
THE COMBAT ESTIMATE
28. At the Brigade, battalion or company level, we have the combat
estimate or the 7 Question Estimate. It is used to execute core business
when time is short and or when a commander and his troops are under fire.
The combat estimate is more narrowly focused and as its name suggests, is
used by commanders to focus on an adversary or a specific situation and
therefore has more utility at the tactical and lower operational levels.
Generally, it does not give room for multiple options as issues are decided
quickly and on the spot. A map may be all that is needed to carry out a
combat estimate. The basic questions which need to be answered in the
combat estimate will be discussed as subsequently:
29. Question 1. What is the Adversary Doing and Why? The first
question ensures that right from the start of the planning process we are
focused on the adversary. It considers 3 pertinent questions on the
adversary; how does the ground affect the adversary’s operations? What
are the adversary’s capabilities and what are his intentions in my area of
operation? The Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace is used to
produce graphical intelligence products on the environment and enemy to
allow the commander visualize the likely effects of the battlespace on his
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and the adversary forces. It consists of 3 basic steps. First is the battlefield
area evaluation which seeks to assess the effects of the battlespace on both
friendly and enemy operations, the identification of likely mobility
corridors, avenues of approach and manoeuvre areas. Next is the threat
evaluation which aids in determining the adversary’s capabilities and
likely tactics based on his doctrinal norms. It enables the commander and
his staff visualize how the adversary normally executes operations, and
how the actions of the past shape what they are capable of in the current
situation. The last step is the threat integration which aids the identification
and development of the adversary’s COAs that will influence the pending
operation. It identifies those areas and activities that when observed, will
indicate which COA the adversary has chosen. Question 1 provides the
information needed to complete the adversary paragraph of your orders.
It is the first half of gaining an understanding of your situation (threat) and
environment as well as human terrain. In conjunction with the IPB, the
mnemonic OCOKA/ROBOT and ASCOPE are used to analyse the
physical environment and human terrain. OCOKA connotes Observation
and field of fire, cover and concealment, obstacles, key terrain,
avenues of approach while ROBOT is used to consider Routes,
objectives, boundaries and timings. Similarly, ASCOPE refers to
Area, structure, capability, organisation, people and events. On the
other hand, the acronym COWARD is used to analyse the threat and it is
used to remember Capabilities, organisation, weapons, asymmetric
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threats reserve and doctrine. These analyses are fused to arrive at the
threat most likely course of action and most dangerous course of action.
30. Question 2. What have I been told to do and Why? The
Question 2 is still part of understanding the situation but looks now at your
own context, tasks and capabilities. It focuses on the mission analysis of
the impending operation. It considers 4 pertinent questions on friendly
forces. The first is what is my higher Commander’s intent and what is my
role in his plan? This helps to establish the intents of both the 2 Up, 1 Up
Commander’s intent, scheme of manoeuvre and main effort as well as the
Bde/BG Commander’s role in the higher Commander’s plan. Next
question is what are my specified and implied tasks? The specified tasks
are taken from the mission statement and coordinating instructions while
the implied tasks are additional tasks that will have to be undertaken to
achieve the mission. An analysis of these tasks helps the commander
determine his main effort. After this the question what constraints are
imposed upon me is considered? Constraints allow freedom of action
within determined parameters. They include resources, time and space.
While restraint stops freedom of action. The last question to be considered
is has situation changed? The likely answers are; No. Continue with the
plan. Yes, but mission and plan still valid. Confirm with the commander
any amendments or further constraints imposed by the tactical situation
change. Yes, mission and/or plan no longer valid. Seek commander’s
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advice on new mission statement. Question 2 provides the information
needed to complete the friendly forces paragraph of your orders.
31. Question 3. What Effects do I want to have on the Adversary and
What Direction must I give to Develop my Plan ? This is where
direction is developed and it is formed by combining and analysing the
assumptions and tasks from Qs 1 and 2. It is at this point that a
commander earns his money as this will be your plan so apply yourself.
The products or outputs from this Question are effect schematic, intent and
main effort. The commander identifies and articulates the effects he wishes
to have on the adversary and why. He describes the effects to be achieved
in the form of an effects schematic as well as the purpose for each effect. If
possible, he should stipulate what effect is likely to be his main effort and
the end state. He should also give additional direction to focus the staff
planning effort. Suggested methods include the use of applicable functions
in combat, the principles of war or the principles of the operation.
Although not mandated, the commander may wish to give guidance as to
the potential COA(s) he wishes to see developed. If he wishes to be
prescriptive (when time is short), he may place the effects directly on the
map and allocate resources to them. However, he may highlight options for
some of the effects or give directions on how he sees a particular effect
being resourced. Question 3 provides the information needed to develop
the commander’s intent and main effort of your orders.
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32. Question 4. Where can I Best Accomplish Each Action or Effect?
This Question simply articulates where precisely your resources must
achieve your desired effect. Draw precise boxes onto a sketch map to
annotate where exactly the desired effect should take place on the ground.
The staff use their experience and the products from Questions 1-3 to
identify where best to site the effect if the Commander has not stipulated
this already. The effects decided in Question 3 are applied to the ground.
The options for achieving each effect must be fully considered as there
will be different ways of achieving each effect from different locations.
Question 4 enables the development of the scheme of manoeuvre
paragraph of the OpO.
33. Question 5. What Resources do I Need to Accomplish Each
Action or Effect? This Question determines what resources have the
capability to achieve the desired effect in the allocated area. Simply call it
resource the effect. The consideration of this question leads to the
allocation of troops and resources to each action and effect. It also leads to
the assigning of mission statements to subordinates. Note that each effect
must be fully resourced according to the adversary’s threat and utilizing
the full capabilities of available resources. Question 5 helps in the
development of the subordinate missions and tasks of your orders.
34. Question 6. When and Where do the Actions Take Place in
Relation to Each Other ? Question 6 aims to synchronize activity over
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time. The synchronization matrix is used at this stage. Its purpose is to
show a visual representation of how the various elements of your plan
inter-relate in time and space. This question aids the consideration of what
you and the adversary will be doing in time and space. How to co-ordinate
and synchronize the actions of all manoeuvre, direct and indirect fire
support in time and space. The overall synchronization of actions is
recorded on a synchronization matrix which is further developed during
war gaming. Note that Question 6 provides information on coordinating
instructions and fire plan for your orders. A sample of synchronization
matrix is shown on the screen.
35. Question 7. What Control Measures do I Need to Impose? The
plan is set and now is the time to add some detailed control measures to the
plan. The essence of such control measures is primarily to minimize
fratricide. While control is important, you should not unduly inhibit the
freedom of your subordinates in their area of command. You need to find
this balance. Control measures are the means by which the commander and
his staff coordinate and control what is going on in the brigade or battle
group area of operation. Necessary control measures such as those that
seek to avoid fratricide are identified and imposed to ensure the effective
coordination of an operation. It is imperative the freedom of action of
subordinate commanders is not hindered unduly. Control measures will
translate directly into the coordinating instructions paragraph of your
orders. Examples of control measures are timings, limit of exploitation,
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report lines, EMCON, bounds, boundaries and fire Support Coordinating
Lines.
CONCLUSION
36. This presentation has attempted to give you a baseline understanding
of the estimate process. It took you through the conduct of the Estimate
Process and the 3 Column Format. You were also briefly taken through
the operational estimate and its steps and tactical estimate. Finally, we
looked at the combat estimate also referred to as the 7 Questions. The
combat estimate is a thought process and not a rigid series of drills. It
seeks to ensure that a timely, adversary focused, and effect-based plan is
produced for an impending operation. Like every decision-making tool, the
application of the combat estimate will depend on the situation and time
available. Though it is imperative the 7 questions are answered, the tools
however should be used selectively and creatively.
37. Let me tell you at this point that there is nothing strange about the
estimate. You therefore need not be afraid of the volume of information
that is contained in the estimate précis that you will be using as the course
progresses. The process allows for the selection of only those aspects that
would help you make appropriate decisions. Study and apply yourself and
you will discover in no distant time that the estimate is not black voodoo
as many see it. I advise you to meet your Directing staff for more
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explanation in any area that you have doubt. You should seize the
opportunity and know more about this concept before your senior course.
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