Terrorism: Resurgence, its reasons and impacts
Introduction
Background of Terrorism and its historical context
Terrorism in Pakistan can generally be associated with the incident of 9/11. The
post 9/11 factors like drones, general Musharraf helping Americans, US war in
Afghanistan and some internal factors in Pakistan like the Lal Masjid operation,
the militarization of ex-FATA and border management issues contributed to the
rise of terrorism in Pakistan. Due to these reasons, small terrorist groups were
created. These Sporadic Terrorist groups were then united under TTP in 2007
under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud at that time. Pakistan some very
deadly blows that include the tragic event of APS and Peshawar Police Line attack.
Not only TTP, but some other groups were also involved but the major actor was
still TTP. In order to counter terrorism some major military operations were carried
out against the Taliban in which Pakistan was able to counter them. Besides, the
National Action Plan after the incident of APS proved to be instrumental in
significantly reducing the threat of terrorism in Pakistan and Pakistan was able to
achieve some security stability due to these concerted long efforts by different
segments of Pakistan.
Resurgence of Terrorism
However, the gains which were achieved in 2017 and 2018 goes to vain when US
withdraws from Afghanistan in 2020 and Pakistan-Taliban talks fail and the
resurgence of Taliban occur. From 2022 till date, on daily basis the Taliban make it
to the headlines adding more to their heinous crimes which makes it an absolute
necessity for Pakistan to counter terrorism.
Factors:
A. Internal Factors:
1. Governance Challenges
The factor of governance is a vital challenge for the state of Pakistan in terms of
countering terrorism. After the successful military attacks against the Taliban
could not be succeeded by any non-kinetic measures where Pakistan could
improve its governance or socio economic fabric. The governance issues were
not addressed after the military attacks; therefore, the vacuum created by
governance has also created some kind of opportunity to the TTP to re rise.
Besides, after the military operations in the ex-FATA, there was no justification
of using the military as a law enforcement over there and a civilian law
enforcement should have been trained according to the conditions and then
implemented. Therefore, the continued military presence has had the negative
impacts on the local population because there is a difference between military
and civil law enforcement. Military enforcement and operations in any region
limits the freedom of the local people which and same is the case with Pakistan
due to which people are frustrated with the state of Pakistan. This created an
environment for the TTP to flourish. It is important to note that the support of
local people is of utmost importance in any kind of military operation.
Although, the local support is not with the TTP, it is not with the government
either. Hence, the government cannot have any effective onward strategy until
the local people supports it, but continuous military presence and absence of
civilian government has also contributed to the resurgence of the TTP.
2. Leadership of the TTP and Revitalized Organization / Unification among
TTP Groups
The credit of resurgence of the TTP can also be given to the TTP leadership.
The TTP is under the leadership of Noor Wali Mehsud who according to
sources is a shrewd kind of personality. He united different Afghan factions
under his leadership and made them ideologically strong, credit to his
intelligence. He also published a book and tried to propagate and spread his
narrative. He used media in order to unite the divergent groups and inculcated a
new spirit in the TTP which has unified and strengthened the TTP.
3. Talks/Negotiations with TTP
Another factor is the negotiations with the TTP. These negotiations have
affected Pakistan in multiple ways. It gave TTP some kind of status of a
stakeholder in Pakistan’s internal issues, something that was historically denied.
But besides that, a ceasefire agreement occurred during these talks which gave
these Taliban a chance to regroup and resettle in Pakistan’s region; and hence,
revitalize and reenergize which would start a new wave and the repercussions
could be seen now.
4. Political Instability and Economic Crisis
Pakistan’s Political Instability and Economic Crisis distracts the Pakistani State
in taking measures that would help in countering terrorism in Pakistan generally
and border management specifically. Political Unity and a growing economy is
needed if Pakistan wants to counter the menace of terrorism. For the past two
years Pakistan has been experiencing severe political polarization and
confrontation, and the distraction of the state institutions.
B. External Factors:
1. US withdrawal from Afghanistan
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan had multifaceted impacts on Pakistan.
The most prominent reason for this was the war of US against all the groups of
Taliban including TTP. After the withdrawal of US from Afghanistan, the
Afghan Taliban did not show any sort of military action against Taliban and
TTP did not feel any kind of pressure in Afghanistan and had the opportunity to
regroup and reenergize in Afghanistan. Besides that, the withdrawal means no
more limited intelligence sharing between US and Pakistan, no more killings of
top TTP chiefs by drones and no more US financing for counter terrorism. US
has left Pakistan on its own in dealing with the TTP threat. Hence, the US
withdrawal is a major factor in resurgence of terrorism in Pakistan.
2. Rise of Afghanistan Taliban
Initially, Islamabad expected that the Afghan Taliban would not support the
TTP because jihad was for the foreign states not Pakistan. Besides, Pakistan had
very good relations with Afghan Taliban; not only this, but Pakistan played a
vital role in the mediation between Afghan Taliban and the US. Pakistan also
supported the Taliban in US withdrawal. Therefore, it was expected that the
Afghan Taliban would act in a way that would limit the space for TTP in
Afghanistan. However, nothing went as expected because Afghan Taliban do
not exert any pressure on the TTP not to use the Afghanistan soil against
Afghanistan, rather Afghan Taliban focus on mediation instead of taking sides.
That is something that has emboldened the TTP and other Taliban groups in
Afghanistan which Pakistan still believe are located in Afghanistan.
3. Ideological Motivation
The takeover of the Afghan soil by the Afghan Taliban has given the TTP and
ideological motivation in a sense that they can also overcome the Pakistani
State and take over Islamabad or the Provincial Headquarters and they can also
win the war they way Afghan Taliban has won. Due to this ideological
inspiration, they have been attacking Pakistan with a renewed energy and
power.
4. The release of TTP prisoners from Afghan jails
According to some sources, about 5000 TTP prisoners were imprisoned in the
Afghan jails by the US who were released after the Taliban take over. Also,
some advanced technology and arms left by the US got in the hands of the TTP.
Hence, they were able to launch monstrous attacks on the state of Pakistan.
Impacts:
The resurgence of terrorism has proved to be a serious concern for Pakistan in the
past and is proving to be one in the present context as well. It is feared that the
monstrous attacks like Karsaz and APS might happen again. The fear of repetition
of that cycle again is causing a psychological impact on Pakistani state and society.
1. Economic
The most prominent impact is economic. Countering terrorism is a very costly
job. Pakistan has to take law enforcement measures either it is military
operations like that in Bannu and South Waziristan or political measures.
Moreover, these efforts require proper planning, training, skills and tools. All
these have an economic cost and for an economy like that of Pakistan, these are
a constraint point making the economy of Pakistan weak. Another economic
impact of terrorism is that it discourages foreign investors in turn decreasing the
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for Pakistan. For instance, the attacks on
Chinese workers has slowed down the CPEC investments and progress.
Therefore, the economy of Pakistan is in a great jeopardy because of terrorism.
2. Political
Another impact of terrorism is political. It is further polarizing the politics of
Pakistan. The most vulnerable region because of terrorism is KP which is
governed by PTI and PTI is not concerned about terrorism which has created a
gap between PTI and other parties.
3. Security
Because of resurgence of terrorism, Pakistan’s security needs are increasing and
it is heavily dependent on China and US for this, so that they could provide
military support to Pakistan.
4. Foreign Policy
Last but not the least, terrorism has an impact on foreign policy as well. The
more terrorism increases in Pakistan, it is likely that Afghanistan will be blamed
for it. The reason for this is that it is believed that the TTP groups are based in
Afghanistan with explicit or implicit support from the Afghan Government.
They are operating from Afghanistan causing security threat to Pakistan. Not
only this, but Pakistan China relations are also affected by the TTP. A cold
environment has been created between Pakistan and China due to the
resurgence of the TTP. This has a diplomatic impact on Pakistan China
relationship.
Conclusion
