Ethiopia's Updated NDC JULY 2021 Submission

JULY 2021

UPDATED NATIONALLY
DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

Table of Contents
List of Figures and Tables iii
List of Acronyms iv
Foreword vi
1. Introduction 1
2. National Circumstances 2
2.1 Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability 3
2.2 Policy, Legal and Institutional Framework 4
3. Nationally Determined Contribution Revision Process 6

3.1 Revision Process 6
3.2 Fairness and ambition 7
3.3 Conditionality of action 8
4. NDC Climate Change Mitigation Contribution 9

4.1 Updated business-as-usual, unconditional, and conditional elements 9
4.2 Land use change and forestry 11
4.3 Livestock sector 13
4.4 Energy sector 14
4.5 Waste sector 15
4.6 Industry sector 15
4.7 Managed soils sector 16
5. NDC Climate Change Adaptation Contribution 17
6. Mitigation Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV), and Adaptation Monitoring

and Evaluation (M&E) 20
ii UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

7. Means of Implementation 21
7.1 Conditional and Unconditional Financing Needs 21
7.2 Capacity building and technology transfer 21
7.3. Policy Mechanisms and Institutional Arrangements 22
7.3.1 10-Year Development Plan 22
7.3.2 Working with the Private Sector 23
7.4 Carbon Markets 23
Annex 1: Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU)

of Ethiopia’s NDC 25
Annex 2: Adaptation actions 33
List of Figures
Figure 1: Ethiopia’s climate change policy roadmap 4
Figure 2: Unconditional and conditional elements of NDC funding 8
Figure 3: Ethiopia’s BAU, unconditional and conditional emission pathways 9
Figure 4: Overview of sectoral contributions to Ethiopia GHG mitigation targets 10
Figure 5: Number of adaptation interventions per sector 18
Figure 6: NDC-specific MRV and M&E framework 20
Figure 7: Financing needs to implement this NDC 21
Figure 8: Breakdown of conditional and unconditional financing 22
List of Tables
Table 1: GHG emission projections in BAU, unconditional and conditional pathways 10
Table 2: Sectoral emissions in the business-as-usual/BAU and mitigation potentials by
sector and conditionality 11
Table 3: Policy interventions in LUCF 12
Table 4: Policy interventions in the livestock sector 13
Table 5: Policy intervention in the waste sector 14
Table 6: Policy intervention in the waste sector 15
Table 7: Policy intervention in the industry sector 16
UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION iii

List of Acronyms
10YDP 10-Year Development Plan

AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use
AR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
BAU Business-As-Usual
BTR Biennial Transparency Report
BUR Biennial Update Report
CCU Climate Change Units
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CMA Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement
CO2eq Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
COP Conference of the Parties
CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus 2019
CRGE Climate Resilience and Green Economy Strategy
CSA Central Statistics Agency
EFCCC Environment, Forest and Climate Change Commission
EPACC Ethiopian Program of Adaptation on Climate Change
ETF Enhanced Transparency Framework
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEM Green Economy Model
GHG Greenhouse Gases
GoE Government of Ethiopia
GTP II Second Growth and Transformation Plan
GWPs Global Warming Potentials
HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons
iv UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

H-NAP National Health Adaptation Plan to Climate Change
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
INC Initial National Communication
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ITMO Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes
IWUAS Irrigation Water User Associations
KP Kyoto Protocol
LDC Least Developed Country
LMP Livestock Master Plan
LT-LEDS Long Term Low Emission Development Strategy
LUCF Land Use Change and Forestry
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation
MDB Multilateral Development Bank
MoA Ministry of Agriculture
MoF Ministry of Finance
MoT Ministry of Transport
MoWIE Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity
MRV Measuring, Reporting and Verification
MSW Municipal Solid Waste
Mt Megatons
NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NAP National Adaptation Plan
NAP-ETH Ethiopia’s National Adaptation Plan 2019
NC National Contribution
NDC Nationally Determined Contributions
PA Paris Agreement
PDC Planning and Development Commission
RE Renewable Energy
REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SNC Second National Communication
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WRI World Resources Institute
UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION v

Foreword
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia remains committed

to an ambitious contribution towards the Paris Agreement goals of
containing the global average temperature increase below 2°C above
pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit temperature increases
to 1.5°C. Given the devastating impacts that climate change is already
having on our people, environment and economy, it is imperative that
immediate global climate action is taken to increase climate resilience
and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Recognizing Ethiopia’s national
circumstances and capabilities, this updated Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDC) represents a clear progression in ambition with
68.8% emissions reduction target by 2030 from the Business-As-Usual
(BAU) scenario, which also seeks to inspire others to increase their
contribution to this collective effort.
Ethiopia’s NDC is built on its Climate Resilience and Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) and set out
an ambitious development trajectory that aims to reach lower-middle-income status. The CRGE is
continuing to be one of the strategic pillars of the 10-Year Development Plan (10YDP) during in the NDC
implementation period. We have undertaken economy-wide analysis and comprehensive stakeholder
engagement to update our NDC, which builds on Ethiopia’s 1st NDC. These efforts generated a robust
evidence base for identifying and prioritising mitigation and adaptation contributions, establishing
intermediate indicators to measure progress towards the updated targets, and strengthening
Measuring, Reporting and Verification and Monitoring and Evaluation systems.
This updated NDC provides a suite of sectoral priority interventions that will guide sectors,
development partners, development financing institutions, the private sector, and other stakeholders
in implementing the activities set out in this document. Ethiopia can achieve the ambitious vision
presented in this updated NDC only in cooperation with our partners. Therefore, this is a call to action
to all stakeholders to join hands and contribute to the realisation of this ambitious updated NDC.
H.E. Prof. Fekadu Beyene Aleka

Commissioner for the Environment, Forest, and
Climate Change Commission of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
vi UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

1. Introduction
This document presents Ethiopia’s update to its pathways of national planning frameworks and
first NDC, covering the period between 2020 and policies, and fully vetted with stakeholders.
2030. It builds upon several national climate and
In determining mitigation contributions, the
development policy initiatives including the first
following activities were undertaken: (i) updating
NDC, the CRGE mid-term review, the emerging
the BAU GHG emission pathway, (ii) preparing
2050 Long Term Low Emission Development
GHG emission reduction pathways to 2030
Strategy (LT-LEDS), the Green Legacy Initiative, and
(national and sectoral), (iii) setting 2025 and 2030
Ethiopia’s 10YDP which considers CRGE as one of
mitigation targets consistent with Ethiopia’s strong
its strategic pillars for the period 2020-2030.
political ambition and readiness to act on climate
As part of this updating process, the Government change, (iv) assessing and prioritizing mitigation
of Ethiopia (GoE) has undertaken economy-wide interventions and indicator selection through
analysis using Green Economic modelling (GEM) a consultative process, and (v) disaggregating
and comprehensive stakeholder engagement. conditional and unconditional contributions
The economic data and greenhouse gases (GHG) In determining adaptation contributions, the
data and information have been thoroughly following activities were undertaken: a review
updated which led to a substantially revised of Ethiopia’s adaptation policy, institutional
BAU pathway, as well as a clearer demarcation landscape, and their respective challenges; setting
of the unconditional and conditional elements a 2018 baseline and 2030 targets; prioritization of
of the proposed actions. As a result, there are 40 adaptation interventions and the selection of
some changes to the first update submission accompanying indicators. Apart from this, a review
Ethiopia made in December 2020. These steps of Ethiopia’s current measuring, reporting and
have been taken to ensure the updated NDC is verification (MRV) and monitoring and evaluation
in full alignment with growth and development (M&E) systems was also conducted.
UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 1

2. National Circumstances
Ethiopia is a land-locked country located in the transformation. This is evidenced by the fact the
Horn of Africa and shares borders with Eritrea to share of the agricultural sector to GDP decreased
the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan to 32.7% in 2019/20 from 45.7 in 2010/11 while
and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the the construction and services sectors made up
south. Ethiopia’s topography is characterized by the majority of the growth. The share of the
large regional differences, which are reflected in constructions and the service sectors from the
its climate. The lowlands in the southeast, covering total GDP reached as high as 21.1 and 39.5,
approximately 55% of the countries land area and respectively, in 2019/20. All this while, the rate
northeast are tropical with average temperatures of poverty has declined from 29.6% in 2010/11
of 25-30°C, while the central highlands (over to 23.5% in 2019/20 (PDC, 2021).
1500 meters in elevation, covering about 45%
Ethiopia has heavily invested in road and railway
of the country’s surface) are much cooler with
infrastructure, industrial parks universities,
average temperatures around 15-20°C. The and the energy sector over the last decades.
highland plateau is divided by the East African The 10YDP aims to build on the enhanced
Rift Valley. Mean annual rainfall ranges from less physical infrastructure to promote the industrial
than 300 mm in the south-eastern and north- sector and achieve successful economic
western lowlands to over 2,000 mm in the south- transformation. It envisions increasing the share
western highlands. Because of this latitudinal and of the manufacturing from the total GDP from
altitudinal contrasts, the climate system is equally the current level of 6.9% to 17.2% by 2030 (PDC,
extraordinarily complex. 2021). The plan also aims to achieve an average
economic growth of 10% in the coming ten years
Ethiopia is also one of the least developed
(PDC, 2021). Agriculture, manufacturing, tourism,
countries in the world and is the second-most
urban development and the mining sectors are
populous country in Africa with a population of
going to be the priority sectors. The plan has also
more than 100 million (CSA, 2013). The country
mainstreamed Sustainable Development Goals
has endorsed a climate resilient green economic
(SDGs) and climate resilient green economy in
path since 2011 and has registered dramatic
different sectors. This ensures that the legacy of
economic growth, with a growth rate averaging
green economic development path will extend
9.2% a year from 2010/11 to 2019/20. This
into the future.
growth rate is high when compared to a regional
average of 5.4% (PDC, 2021). The high growth The Ethiopian economy is vulnerable to climate
rates have been also accompanied by structural change. This is because the agriculture sector,
2 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

which employed 78% of the country’s labour 6% growth. However, other crises, although of
force in 2013, heavily relies on rainfall. Apart from smaller magnitude but serious nevertheless, have
this, nearly 80% of the population of Ethiopia contributed to Ethiopia’s vulnerability. These
lives in the rural area where most of them are include a desert locust invasion that affected
smallholders who practice low input and low at least one million people; erratic rainfall that
output farming in a very fragmented land (CSA, disrupted the country’s dominant rain-fed
2015). The vulnerability of the sector to climate agricultural sector as well as cholera, measles,
change has urged the Ethiopian government and yellow fever outbreaks. Combined, these
to design strategies to mitigate the possible factors have a significant systemic shock that has
impacts of climate change. Hence, mitigation and profound implications for Ethiopia, both for short-
adaptation activities have been already included and medium- to long-term which now require
in the sectoral plans and various initiatives. For to be considered in all developmental planning
example, the Agriculture Growth Program (AGP), processes,1 including updating of Ethiopia’s
the Livestock Master Plan (LMP), Livestock & NDC. Nevertheless, the disruptions caused by the
Fisheries Sector Plan (LFSP) and the Sustainable Covid-19 Pandemic also offer an opportunity to
Land Management Programme (SLMP) are ‘build forward greener’. This NDC, mainstreamed
critical programs in the agriculture sector and in to the ten years development plan, sets out
are also included in the National Adaptation Plan Ethiopia’s priorities in building its low carbon
(NAP). The AGP enables improving agricultural climate resilient future.
productivity and commercialization of targeted
smallholder farmers. The SLMP has been a way
for mainstreaming green economy needs into
2.1 Climate Change Impacts and
sectoral programmes at all levels and it has Vulnerability
been configured to the safety net programmes. Ethiopia’s contribution to the global GHG
NAP is a critical part of the CRGE that focuses emission is infinitesimal (currently estimated at
on adaptation programs taken by each sector to 0.04%) (Crippa, 2019). But the country is highly
build climate resilient economy. The ten years’ vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This
development plan inculcated the CRGE and the is due to Ethiopia’s high dependence on rain-
NAP to build climate resilient green economy in fed agriculture and natural resources, as well
the coming years. as its relatively low adaptive capacity. There is
COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the considerable evidence of climate change impacts
vulnerability of Ethiopia and resulted in extensive in Ethiopia over the last 50 years. At the national
disruption to lives and livelihoods. Ethiopia is level, temperatures have increased by an average
currently facing a double threat from climate of around 1°C since the 1960s. Rainfall is subject
change and the COVID-19 pandemic. According to high inter-annual and intra-annual variability.
to official figures, Ethiopia’s economy grew at 6.1 Yearly variation around mean rainfall level is 25%
percent in the financial year 2020, compared to and can increase to 50% in some parts of the
9 percent in 2019. Remittance declined by 10 country. Despite this complexity, there is evidence
percent in 2020, and Foreign Direct Investment of a 20% decrease in rainfall in the south-central
inflows were 20 percent lower, affecting already region of the country. Extreme weather events
thin financially reserve levels and increasing are common, especially drought and flood, with
external financing needs. An economic rebound 1 United Nations Ethiopia, Socio-economic Impact of COVID-19 in
is expected in 2021 to achieve a modest rate of Ethiopia (2020).

indications that their frequency of occurrence increasing vulnerability to risks and hazards,
has increased in the last ten years, relative to the and heightening the importance of sustainable
decade before. adaptation and resilience measures. Across all
of these measures, consideration of gender
The impact of climate change and variability is
equality and inclusion of vulnerable groups
already being experienced in almost all sectors
and communities is essential for design and
with different intensity across the country. Water
implementation to move towards equitable
scarcity and drought conditions are expected
outcomes.
to further increase risks of food insecurity and
may exacerbate conflict situations over scarce
resources and population movements. Heavy 2.2 Policy, Legal and
rains, flooding and soil erosion put both urban Institutional Framework
and rural infrastructures at risk, particularly
for poor and vulnerable groups. Increased Ethiopia’s policy framework for climate change
occurrences of drought conditions and reduced mitigation and adaptation has progressively
rainfall across much of the country will further evolved since the ratification of the United
impact agriculture, livestock, food security and Nations Framework Convention on Climate
human health. Environmental degradation Change (UNFCCC) in 1994. As part of its
impacted water resources, and the loss of commitment, Ethiopia submitted to the UNFCCC
biodiversity and ecosystem services constitute its Initial National Communication (INC) in 2001
serious obstacles to the country’s continued and Second National Communication (SNC)
development and poverty reduction efforts, in 2015. The country also launched National
Figure 1: Ethiopia’s climate change policy roadmap
Submission of National EPACC (Ethiopia

Ratification Ethiopia’s Initial National Ratification of Adaptation Program of
of the Constitution Communication Kyoto Protocol Programme of Adaptation on
UNFCCC1994 1995 (INC) to UNFCCC 2005 Action (NAPA) Climate Change)
2001 2007 2010
Submission of Climate Climate Resilient Nationally

Climate
Second National Climate Resilient Resilience and Green Appropriate
Resilience
Communication Transport Sector Strategy Economy Mitigation
Strategy: Energy
(SNC) to Strategy 2015 Agriculture and Strategy (CRGE) Actions (NAMA)
& Water 2015
UNFCCC 2015 Forestry 2015 2011 2010
National Health
Second Climate Resilience
Submission of Adaptation Ratification of the
Growth and Strategy: Urban INDC converts to
INDC to UNFCCC Plan to Climate Paris Agreement
Transformation Development and NDC March 2017
March 2015 Change (H-NAP) March 2017
Plan (GTPII) 2016 Housing 2017
2017
National
Resource
*Updating Ethiopia’s 10 Year Adaptation National
Mobilisation
Ethiopia’s Development Plan (NAP) Adaptation Plan
Strategy for NAP-
NDC (2020) Plan 2020 Implementation (NAP-ETH) 2017
ETH 2020
Roadmap 2017

Adaptation Plan of Action in 2007, Ethiopian Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) for the
Program of Adaptation on Climate Change and 2015-2020 period. The newly endorsed 10YDP
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions in has also set building climate resilient green
2010. Ethiopia has endorsed a Climate Resilient economy as one of its strategic pillars. Ethiopia
Green Economy (CRGE) strategy to build a has also updated its NDC building on the 10YDP
green and resilient economy in 2011. Apart and with extensive review and participation
from this, sectoral policies and strategies have of relevant stakeholders. The following figure
been formulated to provide tailored and sector- summarizes Ethiopia’s climate change policy
specific strategic interventions. These include roadmap since 1994.
the following: the Climate Resilience Strategy
for Agriculture and Forestry (2015); the Climate Ethiopia has progressively put in place
Resilience Strategy for Energy and Water (2015); an institutional architecture which follows
the Climate Resilient Strategy for the Transport sectoral approach to implement CRGE/NDC
Sector (2015); the National Health Adaptation interventions. In this regard, the Environment,
Plan to Climate Change (H-NAP, 2017) and Forest and Climate Change Commission
the Climate Resilience Strategy for Urban (EFCCC), is the lead agency for the coordination
Development and Housing (2017). of Ethiopia’s response to climate change and
is the national focal point to the UNFCCC; it
Ethiopia submitted its Intended Nationally formulates environmental laws and standards;
Determined Contribution (INDC) in 2015 and and develops, coordinates and guarantees the
ratified the Paris Agreement (PA) in March 2016, implementation of sectoral programs and plans.
turning its INDC into its NDC. Ethiopia’s first NDC A CRGE Facility was established in 2013, overseen
aspired to reduce emissions from all sectors by by Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for
64% by 2030 from BAU scenario. As part of the financial aspects of CRGE implementation, while
endeavor to bolster national adaptive capacity, the Environment, Forests, and Climate Change
Ethiopia developed its National Adaptation Commission (EFCCC) is responsible for technical
Plan (NAP-ETH) in 2017. In order to implement elements and day-to-day administration, as well
NAP, subsequent strategies, notably the gender as developing guidance and rules for CRGE
analysis for NAP; the National Adaptation Plan implementation. The institutional arrangements
(NAP) Implementation Roadmap and NAP-ETH
reflect a cross-sectoral, multi-disciplinary
Resource Mobilization strategy were developed
approach organized through bodies like the
between 2018 and 2020.
inter-ministerial and management committee and
Ethiopia has been implementing its climate allows for regional engagement. Most relevant
change policy by mainstreaming into national line ministries have in-house CRGE directorates,
development plans. In this regard, the CRGE units, or bureaus that focus on climate change
strategy was mainstreamed into the Second policy implementation.

3. N
ationally Determined
Contribution Revision Process
3.1 Revision Process 3. Setting 2025 interim and 2030 final NDC
targets
The NDC updating process has gone through
4. Prioritizing mitigation interventions and
a series of steps including extensive document
indicator selection and,
review, data collection, model development and
validation, as well as stakeholder consultations. In 5. Determining conditional and unconditional
addition to this, the recent IPCC 2006 guideline policy action
has been used for estimating the GHG emission.
The adaptation component is based on a review
The updating process employed Ethiopia’s
of existing documents including NAP-ETH, the
Green Economy Model (GEM) to project the GHG
NAP implementation road map and its resource
emission pathways taking into consideration the
mobilization strategy, as well as the various
Ethiopian development ambition from 2020 to
sector-based vulnerability assessments. Then,
2030. Relevant data was collected from pertinent
the long list of actions has been discussed and
sources and sectors. In this regard, a recently
prioritized. The required resource for realizing
updated livestock inventory, and updated
the NDC was estimated based on goals and
global warming potentials (GWPs) as per the
targets of the 10YDP. The financial estimation
most recent IPCC Assessment Report (AR5)
further disaggregated the total required resource
were used.
in to conditional and unconditional components.
The technical analysis of the mitigation In addition, detailed gender and institutional
component comprises of five concisely defined capacity gap analyses were conducted to inform
methodological steps: NDC updating process.
1. Preparing an updated BAU scenario
2. Preparing updated GHG abatement policy
scenarios for 2030

3.2 Fairness and ambition
The updated NDC represents a clear progression in ambition for the following reasons:
Higher robustness of GHG emissions pathways and targets through improvements in

methodology, thereby more accurately and completely capturing historical emissions and
1 emissions pathways through greater alignment with national GHG inventories, revised
emission factors and improved consistency with the IPCC’s 2006 guidelines.
Ethiopia proposes an emission reduction target of 68.8% which is more ambitious compared
2 to its first NDC (64%).
Inclusion of a detailed adaptation baseline and 2030 targets. The first NDC did not have a
3 quantified baseline and targets.
Clear demarcation between unconditional and conditional mitigation and adaptation

4 interventions, with a meaningful domestic contribution, unlike the first NDC.
Commitment to explore further ambition increases during the NDC commitment period.
This includes potentially enhancing Ethiopia’s NDC ambition by reducing emissions currently
outside the scope of this NDC update, for instance for GHGs not covered by the current NDC
5 (e.g., Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in the context of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal
Protocol) where GoE initiatives on sustainable cooling are already underway and further
mitigation potential exists.
6 Inclusion of additional adaptation interventions per sector.
Better adaptability and flexibility of the methodology to potential future changes of policies
7 and external shocks.
An enhanced ability to track progress on mitigation and adaptation actions with improved
8 MRV/M&E.

3.3 Conditionality of action the total reduction will be domestically financed
while the remaining 80% shall be financed by
The level of ambition that can be achieved international support. Although exceptions have
unconditionally, and the level of international been applied where some mitigation interventions
support required to achieve conditional targets, rely fully on international support, this guide
indicates noteworthy progress in this updated is regarded as appropriate when considering
NDC. The proposed NDC’s policy interventions Ethiopia’s marginal historical responsibility and
are sector-wide programmatic actions, comprising least developed country (LDC) status, domestic
many different activities requiring both domestic resource availability and sustainable development
and international investment. Based on the priorities. This split assumes that Ethiopia will
experience of other countries and the economic implement the least-cost mitigation actions first
realities of Ethiopia, it is proposed that 20% of to achieve its unconditional targets.
Figure 2: Unconditional and conditional elements of NDC funding
20% 80%
Of Ethiopia’s Mitigation & Adaptation Of Ethiopia’s Mitigation & Adaptation

Contributions are Unconditional Contributions are Conditional
Domestically financed Internationally/Donor financed

4. N
DC Climate Change
Mitigation Contribution
4.1 Updated business-as- and BAU. The unconditional pathway will result
usual, unconditional, and in absolute emission levels of 347.3 Mt CO2eq in
2030, which represents a reduction against the
conditional elements
revised BAU of 14% (-56 Mt CO2eq) in 2030. The
The BAU emission projections of the updated impact of further policy interventions proposed
NDC differ from the 1st NDC because of under the conditional pathway decreases
differences in the methods of estimation and absolute emission levels to 125.8 Mt CO2eq such
the updated data used compared to the first that the combined impact of unconditional and
NDC. In this regard, the updated base year conditional contributions represents a reduction
emissions in 2010 are estimated at 247 million of 68.8% (-277.7 Mt CO2eq) in comparison with
metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents the revised BAU emissions in 2030 (Figure 3).
(Mt CO2eq) which are projected to increase to This ambitious pathway is conditional on
a level of 403.5 Mt CO2eq in the BAU scenario international support and includes Ethiopia´s
in 2030. The projections are further divided into unconditional efforts.
three pathways, i.e., unconditional, conditional
Figure 3: Ethiopia’s BAU, unconditional and conditional emission pathways
450
400
350
300
Mt CO2e
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Year
NDC Conditional (including unconditional) NDC Unconditional Business as usual/BAU
Note: The graph “NDC Conditional” represents the combined impact of unconditional and conditional elements.

Figure 4: Overview of sectoral contributions to Ethiopia GHG mitigation targets
LUCF Energy Managed soils -68.8% below BAU, conditional -14% below BAU,
Industry Waste Livestock Conditional pathway including uncondtional unconditional
contribution pathway
Unconditional
450
403.5
400 347.3
350
300 192.9
247.5 195
250
200 11.5
112 26
150 11 91.8 180
180.0
9 20 27.3 125.8
100 5 14.9 10.9 9.5
120 140 9.5 22.6 2.9
50 10.6
-99.9
0 LUCF
Energy
Managed soils
Industry
Waste
Livestock
Historical BAU Emissions
Emission in in 2030 2030 2030
2010 Conditional Unconditional
Target Target
Figure 4 above provides an overview of how urbanization. These emerging realities will have
each of the different sectors will contribute to this their own cumulative repercussion on the pattern
overall reduction. of emission. Thus, emissions from industry and
It is crystal clear that the Ethiopian economy will energy are expected to increase by a larger
undergo structural change in the coming years. percentage compared to other sectors (Table 1).
The 10YDP signifies that the base of the economy Nevertheless, the agricultural sector, particularly
will be anchored on the manufacturing sector. livestock will remain as the main contributor to
In addition to this, there will be high pace of the GHG emission in the coming years followed
Table 1: GHG emission projections in BAU, unconditional and conditional pathways
Sector BAU emission Unconditional emission Conditional emission projection

projection (Mt CO2eq) projection (Mt CO2eq) (incl. unconditional) (Mt CO2eq)
2020 2025 2030 2025 2030 2025 2030
Industry 5.9 12.7 26.1 12.9 27.3 10.2 22.6
Energy 10.7 14.4 20.0 12.7 14.9 10.4 9.5
LUCF 125.0 133.8 140.2 112.6 91.8 21.4 -99.9
Livestock 146.4 169.5 194.8 168.7 192.9 162.8 180.0
Managed Soils 5.8 8.1 11.0 8.0 10.9 8.0 10.6
Waste 9.1 10.3 11.5 9.4 9.5 6.0 2.9
TOTAL (Mt CO2eq) 302.9 348.8 403.5 324.3 347.3 218.8 125.8

by the Land Use and Forestry sector. Both sectors be presented. The conditional targets include
together represent 83% (LUCF 35% and livestock unconditional ones for all sectors.
48%) of total BAU emissions in 2030. Important
to note is that LUCF accounts for emissions from
biomass use e.g., for cooking and baking, which is
4.2 Land use change and
the single largest driver of LUCF-related emissions. forestry
The following table describes the contribution Emissions in LUCF originate from net changes
of each sector and sub sector to aggregate in the stock of carbon in the country, largely
unconditional and conditional emission reduction emanated from land conversion and emissions
targets, ordered by mitigation potential in each of from biomass energy use. Unlike the first NDC,
the respective sector categories. which only considered forest land as a land
Whereas the mitigation potentials are category, this stock of carbon is determined by
represented at sector level considering all the dynamics among all types of land classes
sector-relevant policies and variables as namely wetland, forest land, grass land, crop
underlying interlinked drivers of emissions, land, settlement, and other land. The result
activity level emission reductions are monitored has shown that Land Use Change and Forestry
and verified through sectoral MRV systems upon (LUCF) have the largest mitigation potential as
implementation of each activity in the context a result of highly ambitious reforestation and
of the 10YDP. The projected emission reduction forest restoration targets (Table 2). At the same
potential estimates by sector and pathways are time, LUCF is the second most important driver
described in detail in Table 2. of emissions under BAU assumptions (Table1).
Policy interventions reduce the emission level in
In the following sections, a detailed overview 2030 to -99.9 Mt CO2eq (under the conditional
of sectoral emission and mitigation profiles will pathway) which turns the entire sector into a
Table 2: Sectoral emissions in the business-as-usual/BAU and mitigation potentials by

sector and conditionality
Sector BAU emission Unconditional Conditional mitigation

projection (Mt CO2eq) mitigation potential potential (incl. unconditional)
(Mt CO2eq) (Mt CO2eq)
2025 2030 2025 2030 2025 2030
Industry 12.7 26.1 -0.2 -1.2 2.5 3.5
Energy 14.4 20.0 1.7 5.1 4.0 10.5
LUCF 133.8 140.2 21.2 48.4 112.3 240.1
Livestock 169.5 194.8 0.8 1.8 6.7 14.8
Managed Soils 8.1 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
Waste 10.3 11.5 0.9 2.0 4.3 8.6
TOTAL (Mt CO2eq) 348.8 403.5 24.5 56.2 129.9 277.7

significant GHG sink (Table 1 & Table 3). This hectares (ha) as a long-term forestry sector goal,
equals a relative reduction of emissions of 171% based on Ethiopia´s Forest Sector Development
(-240.1 Mt CO2eq) compared to BAU emissions Plan, the Green Legacy Initiative and Reducing
in LUCF by 2030. The unconditional pathway Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
foresees a reduction of emission levels to 91.8 Degradation (REDD+) strategic actions. Realizing
Mt CO2eq, which represents a relative reduction this ambitious plan will increase forest cover to
of 34.6% of sectoral BAU emissions in 2030 30% of the national territory by 2030. The other
(-48.4 Mt CO2eq) (Table 2). most important driver of LUCF emissions is
biomass energy use for cooking and baking which
The potential for net emission removals in LUCF according to international inventory guidelines
can be realized through massive reforestation are accounted under LUCF. Thus, replacing
and restoration of a total of up to 15 million or improving household biomass energy use
Table 3: Policy interventions in LUCF
Policy intervention Indicator (unit) Lead institution/s

(responsible)
Sustainable agriculture Hectares of agricultural land Ministry of

Increasing the share of agricultural land under under sustainable management Agriculture (MoA)
sustainable management practices practices (ha)
Reducing pre-harvest losses and land
converted for agricultural infrastructure
Grassland improvement Hectares of grassland Ministry of

Carbon sequestration through grassland improved (ha) Agriculture (MoA)
improvement
Lowlands Livelihoods Resilience Project
Reducing residential biomass use Energy demand shifted (TJ) EFCCC

Fuel switch: shift from unsustainable biomass Number of improved cookstoves Ministry of Water,
energy demand to electric stoves, renewable distributed and used (Received by Irrigation and
biofuels (e.g. residues) women/men) Electricity
Biomass efficiency: improved cookstoves Biomass use per household (Tons)
(female-headed/male-headed)
Reforestation Area reforested/afforested (ha) EFCCC

Reforestation 3 million ha of land by 2030 Share of forest area of total land
(conditional pathway) area (%)
20% moist Afromontane, 60% dry
Afromontane, 10% Acacia-Commiphora,
10% Combretum-Terminalia)
Restoration Area restored (ha) EFCCC

Restoration of 5 million ha of land by 2030 and Share of forest area of total land
9 million Ha by 2050 (conditional pathway) area (%)
10% moist Afromontane, 60% dry
Afromontane, 10% Acacia-Commiphora, 20%
Combretum-Terminalia)

for cooking and baking leads to substantively (e.g., revised emission factors) significantly
reduced pressure on forestry resources. All in all, elevate BAU emissions of this sector compared
the following table portrays the policy options of to the first NDC. The sector has relative reduction
the sector in coming ten years. of emissions of 7.6% (-14.8 Mt CO2eq) compared
to BAU emissions in 2030. The unconditional
pathway foresees a reduction of emission levels
4.3 Livestock sector
to 193 Mt CO2eq, which represents a relative
The livestock sector exhibits the second most reduction of 0.92% of sectoral BAU emissions in
important mitigation abatements. It is also one 2030 (-1/8 Mt CO2eq) (Table 2).
of the most significant contributors to emission
It is a vivid fact that the emission reductions in
source under BAU assumptions contributing
the livestock sector are to be achieved through
nearly 45% of total base year emissions in 2010
packages of policy interventions combining
and almost half of the total BAU emissions in
mitigation, efficiency gains and output growth in
2030. Given the economic importance and plans
the sector. In this regard, sector-specific strategies
for a strong expansion of the sector, emission
as well as national development plans have levied
reductions are most visible in improved emission
huge weight to the sector in a bid to reduce
intensities of livestock production.
emission in the country. Thus, Livestock Master
Policy interventions in this sector will reduce Plan (LMP), the 10YDP, and the CRGE strategy,
the emission level in 2030 to 180 Mt CO2eq have identified optimal policy interventions in the
in the conditional pathway. This new estimate sector. Table 6 depicts the envisioned policies of
of current and projected heads of livestock in the sector in the coming years emanating from
the country as well as other key parameters these policy documents.
Table 4: Policy interventions in the livestock sector

(responsible)
Dairy, red meat and poultry intervention Number of improved cows Ministry of
packages (Owned by women/men) Agriculture (MoA)
Enhancing efficiency and productivity in GHG intensity of agricultural GDP
livestock subsectors
Agricultural mechanisation Number of heads of livestock Ministry of

Replacing cattle/oxen with tractors for farmers reduced (Received by women/ Agriculture (MoA)
and smallholders men)
Number of tractors distributed
Increase in the share of poultry Number of non-dairy cattle Ministry of

Replacing non-dairy cattle stock with chickens replaced (Owned by women/ Agriculture (MoA)
(supply side) and inducing a demand shift men)
from beef to chicken
Oilseed feeding Improved feeding deployed Ministry of

Improved feeding to reduce emissions from (Tons) Agriculture (MoA)
enteric fermentation

4.4 Energy sector to 15 Mt CO2eq, which represents a relative
reduction of 25.5% of sectoral BAU emissions in
The energy sector has huge mitigation potential 2030 (-5.1 Mt CO2eq) (Table 2).
in the updated NDC next to livestock and LUCF.
The lion’s share of the grid-connected electricity Policy interventions in the energy sector target
generation comes from renewable sources. energy consumed by all sectors (Table 5).
Moreover, the contribution from reducing Investments in the transport sector can contribute
biomass energy emissions has been already to reducing the demand for petroleum through
accounted for under the LUCF sector (Table 1). leapfrogging to green mobility solutions, including
The energy sector contributes 5% of total BAU e-mobility, railways and non-motorized transport.
emissions in 2030. Policy interventions in this This mitigation contribution does not yet include
sector will also reduce the emission level in 2030 clean energy exports to neighboring countries,
to 9.5 Mt CO2eq in the conditional pathway. This which are projected to reach more than 5,000
equals a relative reduction of emissions of 52.5% MW/year once the Great Ethiopian Renaissance
(-10.5 Mt CO2eq) compared to BAU emissions in Dam is connected to the grid. This could represent
the energy sector (Table 2). The unconditional an additional significant mitigation potential of
pathway foresees a reduction of emission levels several Mt CO2eq per year.
Table 5: Policy interventions in the energy sector

(responsible)
Energy efficiency Efficiency parameters, e.g., Ministry of Water,

Economy-wide improvements of energy efficiency of appliances and Irrigation and
efficiency of appliances, machinery and other buildings (in %) Electricity (MoWIE)
capital assets
Transport electrification Energy demand shifted (TJ) Ministry of

Shifting transport energy demand from Share of electric vehicles over Transport (MoT)
petroleum to electricity total fleet (%)
Increasing the share of electric vehicles
Public transport Energy demand shifted (TJ) Ministry of

Shifting transport energy demand from Passenger distance travelled in Transport (MoT)
petroleum to electricity public transport (km) (By women/
Increasing the share of public transport, men)
including railways Share of passenger kilometres
travelled in public transport
over total passenger kilometres
travelled (%)
Industry fuel switches Energy demand shifted (TJ) by Ministry of Trade

Fuel switch 1: shift from industrial petroleum type of fuel switch and Industry;
demand to electricity Ministry of Water,
Irrigation and
Fuel switch 2: shift from industrial petroleum Electricity (MoWIE)
demand to sustainable biomass

4.5 Waste sector the emission from the sector in the coming years.
Cognizant to this, commensurate interventions
The waste sector accounts for relevant have been proposed to reduce emission coming
emission sources with emissions emanating from the sector in the coming years. These
from municipal solid waste (MSW) generation, interventions will reduce emission levels to 22.6
decomposition of organic components of Mt CO2eq in 2030 in the conditional pathway
waste on landfills, wastewater as well as from (Table 1). This equals to a relative reduction of
solid waste incineration. Mitigation action in the emissions of 13.4% (-3.5 Mt CO2eq) compared
waste sector has a significant potential to reduce to BAU emissions. The unconditional pathway
emissions. The sector contributes 3% of total BAU projects a reduction of emission levels to 27.3
emissions in 2030. Despite small contributions Mt CO2 (Table 2). Interventions will reduce
to total BAU emissions, policy interventions in emission levels to 22.6 Mt CO2eq in 2030 in
the sector can be highly effective. Conditional
the conditional pathway (Table 1). This equals
interventions can reduce the emission level in
a relative reduction of emissions of 13.4%
2030 to 2.9 Mt CO2eq. This equals a relative
(-3.5 Mt CO2eq) compared to BAU emissions.
reduction of emissions of 74.7% (-8.6 Mt CO2eq)
The unconditional pathway projects a reduction
compared to BAU emissions in the waste sector.
of emission levels to 27.3 Mt CO2 (Table 2).
The unconditional pathway projects a reduction
of emission levels to 9.5 Mt CO2eq, which Most of the industries in Ethiopia are small and
represents a relative reduction of 17.1% of micro such that they don’t emit much GHG.
sectoral BAU emissions in 2030 (-2.0 Mt CO2eq) The cement sub sector is the major source of
(Table 2). The envisioned policy interventions process-related emissions in the sector. Apart
are depicted in Table 6. from this, Ethiopia plans in producing fertilizer
which will increase GHG emission in the coming
ten years. Cognizant to this, the principal policy
4.6 Industry sector
to mitigate process-related emissions in the
The share of manufacturing industry has been cement sector is clinker substitution while
increasing over the recent past years and the saving from increased nitrogen use efficiency.
10YDP portrayed that its share will reach as high A shift away from synthetic fertilizer will be the
as 17.2% of GDP by 2030. This in turn increases prime mitigation strategy for the fertilizer sector.
Table 6: Policy intervention in the waste sector

(responsible)
Waste management Rate of waste generation (Ton/c) Ministry of Urban

Reducing emissions from reduced waste Share of organic material per ton Development and
generation rate per capita of waste on landfills (%) Construction
Reducing emissions by aggressively diverting Number of wastewater treatment Ministry of Water,
organic materials from landfills, i.e. waste plants constructed Irrigation and
separation and composting Electricity (MoWIE)
Reducing emissions from wastewater

Table 7: Policy intervention in the industry sector

(responsible)
Clinker substitution Share of clinker in cement (%) Ministry of trade

Replacing clinker in cement with adequate and Industry
and available materials without compromising
cement properties
Cognizant to this, the principal policy to mitigate urine and dung. Thus, the sector is directly linked to
process-related emissions in the cement sector is the livestock sector which comprises all emission-
clinker substitution while saving from increased nitrogen relevant policy interventions. Managed soils are
use efficiency (Table 7). represented as a separate sector to distinguish
between livestock and crop production, and to
4.7 Managed soils sector align with IPCC guidance. While livestock-related
agriculture represents 48% of BAU emissions in
The main drivers of emissions from managed soils 2030, GHG emissions from crop production on
are linked to fertilizers, crop residues, as well as managed soils contribute 3%.

5. N
DC Climate Change
Adaptation Contribution
Ethiopia has been putting in place various outlined in the NAP with actions, categorized into
policy actions that enhance the implementation short term priorities (such as capacity building,
of climate change adaptation over the last strengthening the enabling environment, and
decade. Core policy and institutional measures promoting research) for the 2020-2022 period,
have been materialized by mainstreaming and long-term priorities (with sector-specific
climate change adaptation into national activities) for the 2025-2030 period.
and sectoral plans with an emphasis on
With the addition of the long-term priorities
implementing identified adaptation options
from the NAP Implementation Roadmap, the
across selected sectors.
number of potential adaptation commitments to
Given that the vulnerability of the country and less consider for inclusion in the NDC totals 52. While
adaptative capacity to absorb external shocks the selection of 18 adaptation options under
emanated from the devasting effects of climate the NAP and the numerous adaptation actions
change and variability including hazards such as under the Implementation Roadmap already
drought and floods, the government of Ethiopia reflect a lengthy, rigorous, and officially endorsed
has made Adaptation a priority. Within this prioritization process that entailed in-depth
context, prioritization of adaptation interventions stakeholder participation (as detailed in the NAP’s
becomes a powerful approach to ensure the methodology), and was informed by an extremely
effective and efficient utilization of the scarce broad range of national, sectoral, and technical
resources available. studies (as noted in the NAP Implementation
Roadmap methodology), attempts were made
Whilst Ethiopia’s initial national climate
to further prioritize sub-set of interventions in the
change strategy- the CRGE Strategy- did not
updated NDC.
sufficiently contain adaptation and resilience,
several sectors have affirmed the importance of Prioritization criteria were developed to select
building adaptive capacity and reducing their the optimal interventions (from within the NAP’s
vulnerability as adaptation interventions under adaptation options and the NAP Implementation
consideration grew substantially. Most recently, Roadmap’s supplementary adaptation actions).
Ethiopia’s NAP formulated in 2017, spanning the The internationally recognized and widely used
agriculture, forestry, health, transport, energy PESTLE framework (an analytical framework for
(power), industry, water, and urban sectors re- multi-criteria decision-making) was applied with
affirmed this importance. Furthermore, the NAP each of the PESTLE categories-Political, Economic
Implementation Roadmap expanded the options (and Financial), Social, Technological, Legal (and

Institutional), and Environmental-defined with adaptation actions represent the bulk of the
four relevant criteria. updated NDC’s commitments for strengthening
Ethiopia’s resilience to climate change. Ethiopia
In using the prioritization criteria to evaluate
has already undertaken important adaptation
each adaptation option (from the NAP) and
efforts in these sectors, and will further expand
each long-term adaptation action (from the
and prioritize measures such as climate-
NAP Implementation Roadmap), 20 steps were
smart agriculture; livestock diversification;
taken for each of the 52 interventions screened,
drought-resistant animal breeding; rangeland
ranging from cross-referencing with the 10 YDP;
management; improved drought-resistant
NAP-ETH; relevant sectoral climate resilience or
crop varieties; crop and livestock insurance;
adaptation strategy; the NAP Implementation
watershed management and rehabilitation;
Roadmap to aligning with the Sendai Framework
ecosystem-based adaptation; sustainable
for Disaster Risk Reduction and African Union’s
forest management; community-based forest
Agenda 2063, and the AU’s draft strategy on
management and conservation; as well as
climate change 2015.
afforestation and reforestation programmes.
Across all these activities, a gender-responsive
Prioritized Adaptation approach will be adopted and vulnerable groups
measures and communities will be considered to ensure
equity in sharing benefits that arise thereof the
As captured in Annex 2 below, Ethiopia’s major efforts. Together with these initiatives, efforts
climate change adaptation commitments are in will be made to diversify adaptive livelihood
the sectors of agriculture, land use and forestry, alternatives that enhance households’ resilience
with additional adaptation contributions in water, to climate shocks in a manner that the livelihood
health, energy, transport, and urban settlements. options are friendly co-exist with the natural
Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Use (AFOLU) ecosystem.
Figure 5: Number of adaptation interventions per sector
Health
6
Agriculture
8
Forestry
8
Land use & NRM
Water
5 Energy
Transport
2
Urban
1 5
3
Climate Services & DRR
2

The updated NDC has identified 40 adaptation Adaptation interventions in the Agriculture,
interventions with a clear demarcation between Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector
unconditional and conditional, covering sectors will be complemented with strategic adaptation
such as Agriculture, Forestry, Water, Transport, actions in other economic sectors such as
Urban, Health, Land Use and Natural Resource water (improving resilience of water sources
Management, and Climate services and disaster and access to potable water), energy (energy
risk reduction sectors (Figure 5). This includes diversity through alternatives and renewables),
mitigation interventions that have adaptation transport (climate resilient design of sustainable
co-benefits and vice versa. Besides, a quantified transportation systems, integrating climate change
baseline (2018) and 2030 target for each into transportation planning and development),
adaptation intervention has been identified urban settlements (urban greenery, adaptive
for guidance on implementation and urban planning), health (integrated environment
monitoring of the updated NDC. To enhance and health surveillance protocols, improvement
inclusiveness of the adaptation interventions, in basic health services and emergency medical
gender considerations and other cross-cutting services), and disaster risk reduction (improvement
issues have been sufficiently entertained in in early warning systems, improvement in disaster
this NDC. risk planning and preparedness).

6. M
itigation Measuring, Reporting and
Verification (MRV), and Adaptation
Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)
The MRV and M&E framework for Ethiopia’s accounting for market mechanisms, as well as
updated NDC will work towards full alignment provide information on sustainable development
with Articles 4 (Mitigation), 6 (Cooperative promotion, environmental integrity, and
Approaches), Article 7 (Adaptation) and 13 transparency. To this end, the NDC MRV and M&E
(Enhanced Transparency Framework) under framework will eventually be fully integrated
the Paris Agreement. Article 13 specifies with the 10YDP targets and indicators for each
elements of reporting in Biannual Transparency sector as shown in Figure 6 below. Therefore,
Report (BTR), with further flexibility for LDCs the international support is critical in building
(“trifurcation”). While LDCs like Ethiopia can capacity for stakeholders who will undertake
report “at their discretion”, Ethiopia is working the tracking, collection, and reporting of data,
towards meeting international best practices as MRV and M&E systems are prerequisite for
to demonstrate a high degree of ambition and successful implementation of this NDC including
climate policy leadership. Ethiopia will therefore reporting to the global community (including
also comply with mandatory reporting and UNFCCC and other key partners).
Figure 6: NDC-specific MRV and M&E framework
10 YDP
Sectoral targets and indicators
Planning and Development Commission (PDC)
Nationally Determined
National Inventory Report
Contribution
Based on data MRV/M&E of
from national NDC targets
inventory Biennial Transparency Report and indicators
report Annual Emission Balance Corresponding
Adjustments, based on ITMO tracking tool
(registry)
Environment, Forest, and Climate Change Commission (EFCCC)
UNFCCC

7. Means of Implementation
7.1 Conditional and mitigation and adaption actions from domestic

Unconditional Financing Needs sources, which is equivalent to an average
annual investment of USD 6.32 billion by 2030.
As shown in Figure 7, the financial resources The conditional finance, which is equivalent
required to implement the updated NDC in the to US$252.8 billion, should be received from
next 10 years is estimated as USD 316 billion. international climate finance sources (Figure 8).
The mitigation interventions identified in the
updated NDC require USD 275.5 billion and
adaptation actions require USD 40.5 billion. 7.2 Capacity building and
The financial estimates are derived from climate technology transfer
resilience plans of sectors and Ethiopia’s Ten
Beyond climate finance, significant level of
Years Development Plan, which aims to build a
ambition put forward by this NDC will also require
climate resilient green economy by 2030.
a commensurate level of capacity building
Alike the GHG emission reduction targeting, 20% and technology transfer. Ethiopia has shown
of the total estimated finance is unconditional particularly high ambition both in mitigation and
while 80% is conditional. Ethiopia is committed adaption across various sectors, with a particular
to invest USD 63.2 billion on climate change emphasis on forestry, agriculture, energy,
Figure 7: Financing needs to implement this NDC
Mitigation +
Mitigation Adaptation
Adaptation =
US$ 275.5 billion US$ 40.5 billion
US$ 316 billion

Figure 8: Breakdown of conditional and unconditional financing
20% 80%
Of the total financing needs is

Of the total financing needs is
Conditional=$252.8 Billion
Unconditional=$63.2 Billion
Depending on International
Raised Domestically
Climate Finance
industry, and disaster risk reduction. In order to Ethiopia also seeks support on capacity building
fully implement the mitigation and adaptation and technology transfer, among others, in the
interventions proposed under the updated NDC, following areas:
Strengthen MRV system and its institutional setup with adequate infrastructure and human resources: This
requires adequate staff levels with the required skill and knowledge, and institutional capacity to enhance the
coordination of entities relevant for tracking the progress of NDC implementation and producing periodic
reports.
Put in place a public expenditure review framework across all government institutions at all levels that
enable disaggregation of distinct budgetary flows and allocations.
Integration of MRV/M&E with general national statistical data management system.
Enhance accessibility and availability of data through the state-of-the art technology
Strengthen the coordination among sectors and regional counterparts to ensure better implementation,
monitoring and evaluation of NDC.
Catalyze technology transfer including clean cement production, early warning systems, sustainable
catchment and land use management.
7.3 Policy Mechanisms and commitment of the country to build CRGE has
Institutional Arrangements been furthered manifested by the fact that
key climate related mitigation and adaptation
7.3.1 10-Year Development Plan indicators have been included in the key
performance indicators of the plan at sector
Building a Climate Resilient Green Economy is
level. The inclusion of such climate indicators
one of the strategic pillars of the 10YDP. The

into the KPI has its own importance. In addition in PA-backed carbon markets based on
to tracking the implementation of NDC, it also environmental integrity, robust accounting, and
paves the way to enrich the database of climate the promotion of sustainable development.
related intervention. This is because the inclusion Ethiopia has gained experience in participating
of more climate indicators necessitates more in relevant carbon market initiatives (such as
baseline data that would trigger sectors and other the Kyoto Protocol’s (KP’s) Clean Development
responsible stakeholders to garner more data to Mechanism (CDM), voluntary carbon standards,
track the progress of the NDC implementation. as well as emerging multilateral and bilateral
These would then help the upcoming NDC approaches and is looking to develop its own
and other plans of the country to be based on domestic carbon market. However, the country
adequate data and concrete information. This has not been effective in hosting carbon market
will also facilitate a linked but dedicated and mechanisms relative to the mitigation potential
robust measurement and reporting system for and ambition set by CRGE and the NDC.
the NDC. It further allows the prevalence of valid
reporting which will also aid the flow of climate Ethiopia intends to address this prevailing
finance. Dedicated climate change interventions, gap by engaging in emerging international
as well as all other interventions with climate carbon markets governed by Article 6 of the PA.
change co-benefits will be designed to respond Ethiopia sees carbon markets as instruments
to clear climate change baselines and targets. to increase mitigation ambition and places
This will help maximize future opportunities to high importance on environmental integrity
reduce GHG emissions or reduce vulnerability through robust accounting as well as the
associated with all government development promotion of sustainable development. To this
programs. end, the following activities will be undertaken
as part of developing Ethiopia’s carbon market
opportunities:
7.3.2 Working with the Private Sector
Identification of additional mitigation
The CRGE Facility’s technical unit (at the EFCCC) potential that is eligible to receive domestic
will establish a private sector liaison office (or and international supports through carbon
officer) to ensure the actively engagement of markets for updated NDC priority sectors
the private sector on both resource mobilization and interventions.
as well as for technical partnerships in
implementation of the NDC. This position, Cooperating with interested Parties and
including its functions and mandate, could be proactively working towards bilateral
created and brought into effect by 2021. The agreements as well as engaging in new
EFCCC should be accountable for monitoring multilateral mechanisms.
the results of the office. Development of institutional capacity,
procedures and required support tools to
comply with all PA rulebook participation,
7.4 Carbon Markets
accounting and reporting requirements.
Ethiopia has expressed a strong desire to This includes developing a registry
participate in carbon market opportunities database based on registry requirements
offered through the PA. Ethiopia’s first NDC in bilateral Article 6 cooperation as well as
included has indicated an interest to participate development of procedures to effectively

approve activities, authorize ITMO be explored for their potential to support
transfers, implement carbon accounting implementation of the NDC.
and perform Article 6 reporting Participation in experience-sharing and
responsibilities. exchanges among peers to draw lessons
Further carbon market instruments beyond and insights from each other while building
the PA, including the International Civil readiness for mobilizing carbon and climate
Aviation Organization’s (ICAO’s) CORSIA will finance.

Annex 1
Information to Facilitate Clarity,

Transparency and Understanding (ICTU)
of Ethiopia’s NDC
Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of the updated

Nationally Determined Contribution of Ethiopia for the timeframe 2020-2030
Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Ethiopia's NDC
1. Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year)
a. Reference year(s), base year(s), reference Updated base year is 2010. The reference year is
period(s) or other starting point(s) 2020. The reference period is 2020-2030. The year
for the Business as Usual (BAU) projection is 2030
b. Quantifiable information on the reference The quantification of the reference indicator will
indicators, their values in the reference year(s), be reported in Ethiopia’s Biennial Transparency
base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting Report and may be updated due to methodological
point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year improvements to the GHG inventory
c. For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Not applicable

Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement,
or polices and measures as components of
Nationally Determined Contributions where
paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to
provide other relevant information
d. Target relative to the reference indicator, At least a 68.8% reduction in economy wide
expressed numerically, for example in percentage emissions by 2030 against the BAU projection
or amount of reduction
e. Information on sources of data used in quantifying Modelling the projections (BAU and target
the reference point(s) reductions) was based on an economy wider
integrated assessment model (the Green Economy
Model) prepared for the Government of Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s GHG inventories
Data from sector ministries and relevant agencies
Energy data from International Energy Agency
(IEA)
Economic projections from national and
international data sources
Population projections from United Nations
Population Division

f. Information on the circumstances under which The national total GHG emission for 2020 may be
the Party may update the values of the reference updated in line with methodological improvements
indicators as they arise
2. Timeframes and/or periods for implementation
a. Time frame and/or period for implementation, 1st January 2021 to 31st December 2030
including start and end date, consistent with Interim reporting in 2025
any further relevant decision adopted by the
Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting
of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA)
b. Whether it is a single-year or multi-year target, as Single year target, 2030

applicable
3. Scope and coverage
a. General description of the target The combined mitigation target (unconditional and
conditional elements) corresponds to a reduction
of 68.8% compared to the BAU projection by 2030.
The unconditional component foresees emission
reductions of 14% and the conditional component
contributes to approximately 54.8% compared to
the BAU projection by 2030
b. Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered The key sectors covered by this NDC are the
by the Nationally Determined Contribution, following:
including, as applicable, consistent with Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) guidelines Industry
Energy
Livestock
Managed soils
Waste
Greenhouse Gases include:
Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous
oxide (N2O)
c. How the Party has taken into consideration All major sources of GHG emissions in the GHG
paragraph 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21 inventory have already been covered in this NDC
Para. 31(c) “Parties strive to include all categories update, including land use change and forestry.
of anthropogenic emissions or removals in their Since Ethiopia is an LDC, remaining gaps result from
Nationally Determined Contributions and, once lack of reliable data
a source, sink or activity is included, continue to
include it”
Para. 31(d) “Parties shall provide an explanation of
why any categories of anthropogenic emissions or
removals are excluded”

d. Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Mitigation co-benefits associated with adaptation

Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic actions will be included. Some of the adaptation
diversification plans, including description of actions with the greatest mitigation co-benefit
specific projects, measures and initiatives of potential includes the following:
Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic Improved rangeland management
diversification plans
Strengthening sustainable natural resource
management through safeguarding landscapes
and watersheds for enhanced climate resilience
Integrating climate change adaptation and
expansion of agroforestry
Rehabilitation of degraded lands and restoration
of degraded forestland through natural
regeneration to enhance landscape-based
climate resilience
Afforestation and reforestation of degraded
lands through tree planting to restore forest
ecosystems enhance for enhancing landscape-
based climate resilience
Enhancing forest climate resilience through
sustainable forest management
Implementing forest protection and health
enhancements measures in natural forest
ecosystems to enhance landscape-based climate
resilience
Improving sustainable utilization of forest resources
Building sustainable transport systems for
resilience through enhanced access to mobility
Improving provision and condition of housing for
enhanced human safety against climatic stressors
Enhancing urban greenery for improved climate
resilience
4. Planning Process
a. Information on the planning processes that Ethiopia has endorsed a Climate Resilient Green
the Party undertook to prepare its Nationally Economy (CRGE) strategy to build a green
Determined Contribution and, if available, on and resilient economy since 2011. Apart from
the Party’s implementation plans, including, as this, sectoral policies and strategies have been
appropriate formulated to provide tailored and sector-specific
strategic interventions. These include the Climate
Resilience Strategy for Agriculture and Forestry
(2015), the Climate Resilience Strategy for Energy
and Water (2015), the Climate Resilient strategy for
the Transport Sector (2015), the National Health
Adaptation Plan to Climate Change (H-NAP, 2017)
and the Climate Resilience Strategy for Urban
Development and Housing (2017)

The CRGE and sectoral policies and strategies

formed the basis for Ethiopia in in its first NDC. It
was also later mainstreamed into the second Growth
and Transformation Plan (GTPII) for the 2015-2020
period for continuity
This NDC has been developed in the context of the
overarching CRGE pillar strategy and in light of the
10 years development plan. (2020-2030). The key
targets and baseline indicators from the 10YDP have
formed the basis for the baseline and targets for this
updated NDC
i. Domestic institutional arrangements, public The Environment, Forest, and Climate Change
participation and engagement with local Commission (EFCCC) is the lead agency for the
communities and indigenous peoples, in a coordination of Ethiopia’s response to climate
gender-responsive manner change and is the National Focal Point to the
UNFCCC. The EFCCC coordinates the country’s
reporting to the UNFCCC, formulates environmental
laws and standards, and develops, coordinates,
and guarantees the implementation of sectoral
programs and plans including the CRGE Strategy.
The CRGE Facility comprising of the Ministry
of Finance, responsible for financial aspects of
CRGE implementation and M&E, and the EFCCC,
responsible for technical elements and day-to-day
administration, as well as developing guidance
and rules for CRGE implementation, together play
a pivotal role in implementation of climate change
interventions, resource mobilization as well as
monitoring and evaluation
The 10YDP and the NDC are aligned and
implementation of one will help secure the
implementation of the other
Public participation was integral to the preparation
of the NDC and the10YDP upon which it is based.
Consultations with line ministries and workshops
with a wide range of sector representatives were
held to agree on actions, indicators and targets.
Consultation with non-state actors and donors were
also held as part of finalising the NDC document
ii. Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate
a. National circumstances, such as geography, See section 2 and 2.1 above – More information can
climate, economy, sustainable development be found in the new 10 Years Development Plan
and poverty eradication (10 YDP) and Ethiopia’s 2nd Communication to the
UNFCCC

b. Best practices and experience related The NDC preparation was undertaken though
to the preparation of the Nationally participatory process with immense engagements
Determined Contribution from the respective line ministries and stakeholders.
Line ministries were engaged in the development
process through a technical working group. The full
alignment with the overall development planning
cycle and the NDC reference period will ensure
better coordination and effective implementation of
Ethiopia’s climate priorities
c. Other contextual aspirations and priorities Ethiopia has set an ambitious development
acknowledged when joining the Paris trajectory that aims to reach - middle-income status
Agreement through green economy pathways as set out in its
national Climate Resilience and Green Economy
(CRGE) Strategy
d. Specific information applicable to Parties, Not applicable

including regional economic integration
organizations and their member States,
that have reached an agreement to act
jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the
Paris Agreement, including the Parties that
agreed to act jointly and the terms of the
agreement, in accordance with Article 4,
paragraphs 16–18, of the Paris Agreement
e. How the Party’s preparation of its Nationally Not applicable since the Global Stock take has not
Determined Contribution has been yet taken place
informed by the outcomes of the global
stocktake, in accordance with Article 4,
paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement
f. Each Party with a Nationally Determined Contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement
that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation
co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on
the following:
i. How the economic and social Not applicable

consequences of response measures
have been considered in developing the
Nationally Determined Contribution
ii. Specific projects, measures and activities Specific activities and associated indicators have
to be implemented to contribute been identified for adaptation and mitigation in the
to mitigation co-benefits, including 10YDP and the supporting technical documents
information on adaptation plans that prepared as part of this NDC update initiative.
also yield mitigation co- benefits, which On adaptation they cover the following:
may cover, but are not limited to, key
Agriculture
sectors, such as energy, resources,
water resources, coastal resources, Forestry
human settlements and urban planning, Water
agriculture and forestry; and economic Energy

diversification actions, which may Transport

cover, but are not limited to, key Urban
sectors, such as energy resources, Climate Services and Disaster Risk Reduction
water resources, coastal resources,
human settlements and urban planning, On mitigation they cover:
agriculture and forestry, and economic Industry
diversification actions, which may cover, Energy
but are not limited to, sectors such as Land
manufacturing and industry, energy and Livestock
mining, transport and communication,
Managed soils
construction, tourism, real estate,
agriculture, fisheries Waste
5. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals
a. Assumptions and methodological approaches GHG emission pathways were built on the Green
used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse Economy Model, which is aligned with the IPCC
gas emissions and removals corresponding to guidance as well as SNA 2008, as appropriate (IPCC
the Party’s Nationally Determined Contribution, Guidelines 2006)
consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31,
and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA
b. Assumptions and methodological approaches Not applicable

used for accounting for the implementation
of policies and measures or strategies in the
Nationally Determined Contribution
c. If applicable, information on how the Party will take See 5. (d)

into account existing methods and guidance under
the Convention to account for anthropogenic
emissions and removals, in accordance with Article
4, paragraph 14, of the Paris Agreement
d. IPCC methodologies and metrics used for The NDC update builds on the 2006 IPCC
estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
emissions and removals and 2013 IPCC Kyoto Protocol Supplement.
Moreover, Ethiopia uses the Global Warming
Potentials on a 100-year time scale according to
the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report to calculate CO2
equivalents of GHG emissions
e. Sector, category or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC
guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable
i. Approach to addressing emissions If applicable, the approach will be in accordance

and subsequent removals from natural with relevant IPCC Good Practice Guidance on LUCF
disturbances on managed lands
ii. Approach used to account for emissions and Harvested wood products are not included in the
removals from harvested wood products emission calculations

iii. Approach used to address the effects of age- Not applicable

class structure in forests;
f. Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the Nationally Determined
Contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including
i. How the reference indicators, baseline(s) The projected BAU, unconditional and conditional
and/or reference level(s), including, where GHG emission pathways and resulting 2025 and
applicable, sector-, category- or activity- 2030 targets have been simulated with the Green
specific reference levels, are constructed, Economy Model. The Green Economy Model has
including, for example, key parameters, been developed in accordance with IPCC 2006
assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data guidelines for GHG inventories; consistent with
sources and models used decision 18/CMA.1
ii. For Parties with Nationally Determined Not applicable

Contributions that contain non-greenhouse-
gas components, information on assumptions
and methodological approaches used in
relation to those components, as applicable
iii. For climate forcers included in Nationally Not applicable

Determined Contributions not covered by
IPCC guidelines, information on how the
climate forcers are estimated
iv. Further technical information, as necessary Not applicable
g. The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Ethiopia expresses a strong interest for voluntary
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if applicable cooperation in emerging international carbon markets
governed by Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Ethiopia
sees carbon markets as instruments to increase
mitigation ambition and places high importance on
environmental integrity through robust accounting as
well as the promotion of sustainable development.
Ethiopia therefore invites interested Parties to explore
engaging in cooperative approaches
6. How the Party considers that its Nationally Determined Contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of
its national circumstances
a. How the Party considers that its Nationally Ethiopia strongly believes that current and historical
Determined Contribution is fair and ambitious in responsibilities for GHG emissions as well as the
the light of its national circumstances capabilities to mitigate them are key considerations
in determining fairness and ambition. Even though
Ethiopia has been responsible for only 0.04% of
global emissions, the country is highly vulnerable
to climate impacts that threaten its sustainable
development. Despite these challenges Ethiopia has
set an ambitious target for reducing its emissions,
with a significant unconditional contribution, in
order to contribute to the global effort to keep
temperature increase below 1.5°C

b. Fairness considerations, including reflecting on Ethiopia considers its ambitious NDC to be fair in
equity terms of meeting the long-term goal set by the Paris
Agreement, in particular in light of her LDC status
and multiple development challenges resulting from
climate vulnerability
c. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph Through this update, Ethiopia has increased the
3, of the Paris Agreement ambition of its NDC in the following ways:
Higher robustness of GHG emissions pathways
and targets through improved methodologies
for capturing historical emissions and improved
consistency with IPCC-2006 guidelines
This update builds on the first NDC, but for the first
time, proposes an emission reduction target in the
conditional scenario that is significantly lower than
historical base year emissions (2010)
Clear demarcation between unconditional
and conditional mitigation interventions, with a
meaningful domestic contribution
Commitment to explore further ambition increases
during the NDC commitment period.
Better flexibility and adaptability of the methodology
employed (Green Economy Model) used to prepare
the emission pathways to potential future changes of
emission sources or mitigation actions
An enhanced ability to track progress on mitigation
actions with improved MRV/M&E
d. How the Party has addressed Article 4, Ethiopia’s NDC covers the whole economy
paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement
e. How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph This NDC update covers major sources of emissions,
6, of the Paris Agreement but also considers national circumstances.
The preparation of Long-Term Low emission
development strategy is underway
7. How the Nationally Determined Contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the
Convention as set out in its Article 2
a. How the Nationally Determined Contribution As explained under 6a above, this NDC contributes
contributes towards achieving the objective of the towards the objective and long-term goal of the
Convention as set out in its article 2 Paris Agreement. It includes actions to address the
mitigation of its GHG emissions as well as adaptation
of the country to climate change. Ethiopia is committed
to deploying domestic resources to this NDC, but as
a highly indebted LDC is also reliant on international
flows of finance to meet its ambitious targets
b. How the Nationally Determined Contribution See 6a and 7a

contributes towards Article 2, paragraph 1(a), and
Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement

Annex 2
Adaptation Actions
Adaptation Intervention Indicator(s)2 Baseline (2018) 2030 Target

(Commitment)
Sector: Agriculture
Enhance food security Productivity of rain fed 28.9 quintals3/Ha 45.9 quintals/Ha
by improving agricultural crop land (based on
productivity in a average for teff, wheat,
climate-smart manner barley and corn)
(promote yield increasing
Area under irrigation 62,050 Ha* 225,913 Ha*
techniques)
(based on corn, wheat,
tomatoes and onions)*4
Crop production through 8 million quintals* 38 million quintals*
irrigation*
Diversify livestock and Productivity of poultry Specialized poultry Specialized poultry
animal mix, including and small ruminants commercial – 33,100 Tons commercial – 80,900 Tons
promotion of poultry and (Tons) Household – 13,200 Tons Household – 16,200 Tons
small ruminants
Sheep – 66,000 Tons Sheep – 324,000 Tons
Goat – 44,000 Tons Goat – 282,000 Tons
Percentage of improved Dairy – 2.7%* Dairy 17%*
livestock number (dairy)
Enhanced climate Percentage of Dairy – 11% Dairy – 42%
resilience in livestock coverage of animal health Beef – 7%, Beef – 28%
services Small ruminants – 7% Small ruminants – 28%
Prevent and control the Percentage reduction of To be established 30% reduction from
spread of climate-driven crop and animal disease 2022/2023 baseline (to
vector-borne diseases cases be established)
2 There is a need to refine definitions of climate indicators Vs development indicators in the next 5 years for clearer distinction of climate
and development actions.
3 Quintal = a unit of weight equal to 100 kg.
4 Represents indicator, baseline (2020) and target (2030) figures obtained from Ethiopia’s 10YDP; other targets and baseline are from
sectors.

(Commitment)
Improve rangeland Percentage of improved Local dairy – 77% Local Dairy – 100%
and pasture-land content in dry feed Cross-breed – 41% Cross-breed – 100%
management Exotic – 33% Exotic – 100%
diversification, including
selection of drought-
resistant animal breeds
Expand the use of Improved seed Teff – 31,000 Ha Teff – 100,000 Ha
improved crop varieties coverage (Ha) Barley – 70,000 Ha Barley – 193,000 Ha
with climate resilient Wheat – 413,000 Ha Wheat – 673,000 Ha
characteristics
Corn – 438,000 Ha Corn – 823,000 Ha
Strengthen crop disease Vulnerable districts Indeterminate All districts nationally
and pest monitoring covered by such
systems in vulnerable monitoring systems
areas
Strengthen drought Number of farmers Indeterminate 30% increase from
and crop insurance (gender disaggregated) 2022/2023 baseline
mechanisms for climate covered by drought and (to be established)
risk management crop insurance
Sector: Forestry
Restoration and Hectares reforested/ 2.6 million Ha 9 million Ha
reforestation through restored (Ha)
tree planting
Increase national forest Percentage of National 15.5% 25-30%
coverage forest coverage
Enhance sustainable Area of natural forest 2 million Ha 4 million Ha
forest management under sustainable forest
management
Improve sustainable Number of green jobs 0.2 million 5 million
utilisation of forest created
resources
Export earnings from 41.4 million USD 221 million USD
sustainable forest
products
Implement forest Area of forest protected - 17.2 million Ha
protection and health from diseases, pests and
enhancement measures fire
in natural forest
Proportion of federal To be established To be established
ecosystems
and regional institutions’
improved capacity for
forest protection
Sector: Land Use, and Natural Resources Management
Enhance climate resilient Number of dependent 30,000 people 1.5 million people
livelihoods of wildlife communities
resource dependent benefiting from climate
communities in resilient wildlife resources
protected areas

(Commitment)
Enhance sustainable Number of PFM - To cover 10,000
natural resources associations vested with catchment areas*
development, legal personality*
management, and
watershed protection
Sector: Water
Integrated watershed Area under integrated 2.24 million Ha 10 million Ha
development in watershed development
million Ha
Improve access to Potable water supply per 19.36 litres/capita/day Rural – 25 litres/capita/
potable water to capita day by 2025/within 1km
strengthen community Urban – 50-100 litres/
climate resilience capita/day by 2025
Proportion in decreasing 19% 7%
non-functionality rate of
water schemes
Percentage of decreasing 39% 20%
water waste
Water Supply for Indeterminate 100 woredas
humans and animals in
100 isolated and drought-
affected woredas
Number of residents 3.5 million people 0*
using fluoride
contaminated water
Expand the construction Number of ha under 0.49 million Ha 1.2 million Ha
of medium and large- medium and large-
scale irrigation systems scale irrigation schemes
to enhance food security
Percentage of improved 2% 20%
irrigation technologies
for medium and large-
scale irrigation
Percentage of water use 30% 50%
efficiency in medium and
large-scale irrigations
Number of gender none 35.5
balanced Irrigation Water
User Associations (IWUAS)
Number of jobs - 930,000*
created through expansion
of irrigation network
Number of persons To be established To be established
acquired skills through
tailored capacity building
activities

(Commitment)
Proportion of women To be established To be established
shared development
and management role in
irrigation system
Sector: Energy
Increasing number Percentage of 39.91% 100%
of households using households using
renewable off-grid renewable off-grid
energy sources for energy sources for
lighting lighting (i.e. those not
served by the grid)
Percentage of population 11% 35%
with stable access
to electricity from
alternative off-grid
renewable energy
(RE) technologies
Number of unstable and 36 systems 0
unreliable diesel-based
standalone generator
systems
Percentage of increased 9% 27%
renewable energy
contribution
Percentage of reduced 19.60% 12.50%
total electricity waste
in transmission and
distribution systems
Percentage improvement none 36.10%
in private sector
contribution in energy
generation and
distribution
Number of green jobs To be established To be established
created in the Energy
sector
Number of capacity To be established To be established
building interventions for
actors across renewable
energy value chain
Percentage increase To be established To be established
in women and youth
participation in RE
development and
utilisation

(Commitment)
Sector: Transport
Build sustainable Length of non-motorised 26.5 Km 506 Km
transport systems for transport infrastructure
resilience through constructed
enhanced access to
Number of cities/ 2 69
mobility
towns (above 50k
residents) with dedicated
non-motorised transport
lanes (for bicycles)
Increase climate resilient Number of major 1 9
designs and safety transport infrastructures
standards for transport that take climate change
systems into consideration
Sector: Urban
Construct new sanitary Number of constructed 6 constructed sanitary 200 sanitary landfills
landfill sites in cities/ landfill sites in climate landfills
towns in climate resilient resilient locations
locations
Increase the climate Area of land covered by 159,263.16 Ha 30% of the land in 200
resilience of urban green infrastructure and cities/towns, equal to
systems recreational areas (Ha) 5,308,772 Ha
Improve provision and Percentage of urban Indeterminate 70%
condition of housing for dwellers residing in safe
enhanced human safety and adequate housing*
against climatic stressors (gender disaggregated)
Enhance urban greenery Urban green area per 0.41 m2 per urban Indeterminate
for improved climate capita in m2 inhabitant
resilience
Undertake climate- Area of land covered by 159,263.16 Ha -
adaptive urban planning green infrastructure and
recreational areas (Ha)
Number of land use plans Not available 4,000
Sector: Climate Services and Disaster Risk Reduction
Number of climate Number of climate 15 59
and early warning and early warning
data produced and data analysed and
disseminated/year disseminated/year
Number of modern Number of modern 325 806
weather condition weather condition
monitoring stations monitoring stations
Enhancing climate Proportion of increase 0.75 0.85
service data reliability in climate service data
reliability

(Commitment)
Number of Eco- Number of Eco- 10* 55*
Hydrology Demonstration Hydrology Demonstration
Sites in all basins Sites in all basins*
Modernise and update Modernise and update 16.66 99.7
the basin information the basin information
system coverage system coverage
Surface water resource Percentage of surface 78% 100%
assessment coverage water resource
assessment coverage
Ground water resource Percentage of ground 17.95% 35%
assessment coverage water resource
assessment coverage
Enhancing water quality Percentage of increase in Indeterminate 80%
monitoring coverage water quality monitoring
coverage
Sector: Health
Reduce Malaria case Percentage reduction of 26/1,000 in 2020 8/1,000
incidence Malaria case incidence
Reduce cholera case Percentage reduction in Baseline in 2020 0
incidence Cholera case incidence
Increase proportion Percentage of households 20% in 2020 60%
of households with with improved toilets
improved toilet
Increase proportion of Proportion of households 70% in 2020 100%
households with safe with safe water supply
water supply
Increase proportion Percentage of health care 16% in 2020 50%
of health care facilities facilities with safe waste
safely managing health management
care waste
Increase proportion Proportion of health 76% in 2020 100%
of health facilities with facilities with safe energy
safe energy sources sources
(electricity, solar)

Ethiopia's Updated NDC JULY 2021 Submission

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Ethiopia's Updated NDC JULY 2021 Submission

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Ethiopia's Updated NDC JULY 2021 Submission

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

JULY 2021

Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

List of Figures and Tables iii

3. Nationally Determined Contribution Revision Process 6

4. NDC Climate Change Mitigation Contribution 9

5. NDC Climate Change Adaptation Contribution 17

6. Mitigation Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV), and Adaptation Monitoring

ii UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

Annex 1: Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU)

Annex 2: Adaptation actions 33

UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION iii

10YDP 10-Year Development Plan

iv UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION v

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia remains committed

H.E. Prof. Fekadu Beyene Aleka

vi UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 1

2 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 3

Figure 1: Ethiopia’s climate change policy roadmap

Submission of National EPACC (Ethiopia

Submission of Climate Climate Resilient Nationally

4 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 5

6 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

Higher robustness of GHG emissions pathways and targets through improvements in

Clear demarcation between unconditional and conditional mitigation and adaptation

6 Inclusion of additional adaptation interventions per sector.

UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 7

Figure 2: Unconditional and conditional elements of NDC funding

Of Ethiopia’s Mitigation & Adaptation Of Ethiopia’s Mitigation & Adaptation

Domestically financed Internationally/Donor financed

8 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

Figure 3: Ethiopia’s BAU, unconditional and conditional emission pathways

UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 9

Table 1: GHG emission projections in BAU, unconditional and conditional pathways

Sector BAU emission Unconditional emission Conditional emission projection

2020 2025 2030 2025 2030 2025 2030

Industry 5.9 12.7 26.1 12.9 27.3 10.2 22.6

Energy 10.7 14.4 20.0 12.7 14.9 10.4 9.5

LUCF 125.0 133.8 140.2 112.6 91.8 21.4 -99.9

Livestock 146.4 169.5 194.8 168.7 192.9 162.8 180.0

Managed Soils 5.8 8.1 11.0 8.0 10.9 8.0 10.6

Waste 9.1 10.3 11.5 9.4 9.5 6.0 2.9

10 UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

Table 2: Sectoral emissions in the business-as-usual/BAU and mitigation potentials by

Sector BAU emission Unconditional Conditional mitigation

2025 2030 2025 2030 2025 2030

Industry 12.7 26.1 -0.2 -1.2 2.5 3.5

Energy 14.4 20.0 1.7 5.1 4.0 10.5

LUCF 133.8 140.2 21.2 48.4 112.3 240.1

Livestock 169.5 194.8 0.8 1.8 6.7 14.8

Managed Soils 8.1 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3

Waste 10.3 11.5 0.9 2.0 4.3 8.6

TOTAL (Mt CO2eq) 348.8 403.5 24.5 56.2 129.9 277.7

UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 11

Table 3: Policy interventions in LUCF

Policy intervention Indicator (unit) Lead institution/s