Applied Statistics in Business and Economics 7th Edition

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CONTENT

Contents
Chapter 1
Overview of Statistics 2
1.1 What is Statistics? 3
1.2 Why Study Statistics? 5
1.3 Applying Statistics in Business 7
1.4 Statistical Challenges 10
1.5 Critical Thinking 16
Chapter Summary 19
Chapter Exercises 19
Chapter 2
Data Collection 24
2.1 Variables and Data 25
2.2 Level of Measurement 29
2.3 Sampling Concepts 33
2.4 Sampling Methods 36
2.5 Data Sources 44
2.6 Surveys 46
Chapter Summary 51
Chapter Exercises 51
Chapter 3
Describing Data Visually 56
3.1 Stem-and-Leaf Displays and Dot Plots 57
3.2 Frequency Distributions and Histograms 61
3.3 Effective Excel Charts 69
3.4 Line Charts 71
3.5 Column and Bar Charts 74
3.6 Pie Charts 78
3.7 Scatter Plots 80
3.8 Tables 84
3.9 Deceptive Graphs 87
Chapter Summary 90
Chapter Exercises 91
Chapter 4
Descriptive Statistics 100
4.1 Numerical Description 101
4.2 Measures of Center 103
4.3 Measures of Variability 115
4.4 Standardized Data 123
4.5 Percentiles, Quartiles,
and Box Plots 128
4.6 Covariance and Correlation 137
4.7 Grouped Data 141
4.8 Skewness and Kurtosis 143
Chapter Summary 147
Chapter Exercises 149
Chapter 5
Probability 158
5.1 Random Experiments 159
5.2 Probability 161
5.3 Rules of Probability 165
5.4 Independent Events 170
5.5 Contingency Tables 174
5.6 Tree Diagrams 181
5.7 Bayes’ Theorem 183
5.8 Counting Rules 189
Chapter Summary 192
Chapter Exercises 193
Chapter 6
Discrete Probability Distributions 200
6.1 Discrete Probability Distributions 201
6.2 Expected Value and Variance 204
6.3 Uniform Distribution 208
6.4 Binomial Distribution 210
6.5 Poisson Distribution 217
6.6 Hypergeometric Distribution 223
6.7 Geometric Distribution (Optional) 227
6.8 Transformations of Random Variables (Optional)
229
Chapter Summary 232
Chapter Exercises 234
Chapter 7
Continuous Probability
Distributions 238
7.1 Continuous Probability Distributions 239
7.2 Uniform Continuous Distribution 241
7.3 Normal Distribution 243
7.4 Standard Normal Distribution 246
7.5 Normal Approximations 259
7.6 Exponential Distribution 263
7.7 Triangular Distribution (Optional) 268
Chapter Summary 271
Chapter Exercises 273
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Contents xxiii
Chapter 8
Sampling Distributions and
Estimation 278
8.1 Sampling and Estimation 279
8.2 Central Limit Theorem 283
8.3 Confidence Interval for a Mean (μ) With
Known σ 287
8.4 Confidence Interval for a Mean (μ) With
Unknown σ 291
8.5 Confidence Interval for a Proportion (π) 297
8.6 Estimating from Finite Populations 304
8.7 Sample Size Determination for a Mean 306
8.8 Sample Size Determination for a Proportion 308
8.9 Confidence Interval for a Population Variance,
σ2
(Optional) 311
Chapter Summary 313
Chapter Exercises 315
Chapter 9
One-Sample Hypothesis Tests 322
9.1 Logic of Hypothesis Testing 323
9.2 Type I and Type II Errors 326
9.3 Decision Rules and Critical Values 330
9.4 Testing a Mean: Known Population Variance 333
9.5 Testing a Mean: Unknown Population Variance 340
9.6 Testing a Proportion 345
9.7 Power Curves and OC Curves (Optional) 354
9.8 Tests for One Variance (Optional) 360
Chapter Summary 362
Chapter Exercises 364
Chapter 10
Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests 370
10.1 Two-Sample Tests 371
10.2 Comparing Two Means: Independent Samples
373
10.3 Confidence Interval for the Difference of
Two Means, μ1 − μ2 381
10.4 Comparing Two Means: Paired Samples 383
10.5 Comparing Two Proportions 389
10.6 Confidence Interval for the Difference of Two
Proportions, π1 − π2 397
10.7 Comparing Two Variances 398
Chapter Summary 405
Chapter Exercises 406
Chapter 11
Analysis of Variance 416
11.1 Overview of ANOVA 417
11.2 One-Factor ANOVA (Completely Randomized
Model) 419
11.3 Multiple Comparisons 427
11.4 Tests for Homogeneity Of Variances 429
11.5 Two-Factor ANOVA Without Replication
(Randomized Block Model) 433
11.6 Two-Factor ANOVA with Replication
(Full Factorial Model) 441
11.7 Higher-Order ANOVA Models (Optional) 449
Chapter Summary 452
Chapter Exercises 453
Chapter 12
Simple Regression 462
12.1 Visual Displays and Correlation Analysis 463
12.2 Simple Regression 469
12.3 Regression Models 471
12.4 Ordinary Least Squares Formulas 475
12.5 Tests for Significance 479
12.6 Analysis of Variance: Overall Fit 485
12.7 Confidence and Prediction
Intervals for Y 489
12.8 Residual Tests 492
12.9 Unusual Observations 498
12.10 Other Regression Problems (Optional) 502
12.11 Logistic Regression (Optional) 505
Chapter Summary 507
Chapter Exercises 509
Chapter 13
Multiple Regression 522
13.1 Multiple Regression 523
13.2 Assessing Overall Fit 528
13.3 Predictor Significance 532
13.4 Confidence Intervals for Y 536
13.5 Categorical Variables 538
13.6 Tests for Nonlinearity and Interaction 547
13.7 Multicollinearity 550
13.8 Regression Diagnostics 554
13.9 Other Regression Topics 560
13.10 Logistic Regression (Optional) 562
Chapter Summary 564
Chapter Exercises 566
Chapter 14
Time-Series Analysis 578
14.1 Time-Series Components 579
14.2 Trend Forecasting 583
14.3 Assessing Fit 596
14.4 Moving Averages 598
14.5 Exponential Smoothing 600
14.6 Seasonality 604
14.7 Index Numbers 609
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xxiv Contents
14.8 Forecasting: Final Thoughts 611
Chapter Summary 612
Chapter Exercises 614
Chapter 15
Chi-Square Tests 624
15.1 Chi-Square Test for Independence 625
15.2 Chi-Square Tests for Goodness of Fit 636
15.3 Uniform Goodness-of-Fit Test 639
15.4 Poisson Goodness-of-Fit Test 643
15.5 Normal Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test 648
15.6 ECDF Tests (Optional) 651
Chapter Summary 652
Chapter Exercises 653
Chapter 16
Nonparametric Tests 662
16.1 Why Use Nonparametric Tests? 663
16.2 One-Sample Runs Test 664
16.3 Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test 667
16.4 Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test 670
16.5 Kruskal-Wallis Test for Independent Samples 673
16.6 Friedman Test for Related Samples 678
16.7 Spearman Rank Correlation Test 681
Chapter Summary 684
Chapter Exercises 685
Chapter 17
Quality Management 692
17.1 Quality and Variation 693
17.2 Pioneers in Quality Management 695
17.3 Quality Improvement 697
17.4 Control Charts: Overview 701
17.5 Control Charts for a Mean 702
17.6 Control Charts for a Range 710
17.7 Other Control Charts 711
17.8 Patterns in Control Charts 716
17.9 Process Capability 718
17.10 Additional Quality Topics (Optional) 721
Chapter Summary 725
Chapter Exercises 726
Chapter 18
Simulation 18-1
Appendixes
A Binomial Probabilities 734
B Poisson Probabilities 736
C-1 Standard Normal Areas 739
C-2 Cumulative Standard Normal
Distribution 740
D Student’s t Critical Values 742
E Chi-Square Critical Values 743
F Critical Values of F.10 744
G Solutions to Odd-Numbered Exercises 752
H Answers to Exam Review Questions 779
I Writing and Presenting Reports 781
J Statistics in Excel and R 785
K Using R and RStudio 789
Index 797
Standard Normal Areas 815
Cumulative Standard
Normal Distribution 816
Student’s t Critical Values 818

When managers are well informed about a com-


pany’s internal operations (e.g., sales, production,
inventory levels, time to market, warranty claims) and
competitive position (e.g., market share, customer
satisfaction, repeat
sales), they can take appropriate actions to improve
their business. Managers
need reliable, timely information so they can analyze
market trends and adjust
to changing market conditions. Better data also can
help a company decide
which types of strategic information it should share
with trusted business part-
ners to improve its supply chain. Statistics and
statistical analysis permit data-
based decision making and reduce managers’ need to
rely on guesswork.
Statistics is a key component of the field of business
intelligence, which
encompasses all the technologies for collecting,
storing, accessing, and ana-
lyzing data on the company’s operations in order to
make better business
decisions. Statistics helps convert unstructured “raw”
data (e.g., point-of-sale
data, customer spending patterns) into useful
information through online ana-
lytical processing (OLAP) and data mining, terms that
you may have encoun-
tered in your other business classes. Statistical
analysis focuses attention on
key problems and guides discussion toward issues,
not personalities or terri-
torial struggles. While powerful database software
and query systems are the
key to managing a firm’s data warehouse, relatively
small Excel spreadsheets
are often the focus of discussion among managers
when it comes to “bottom
line” decisions. That is why Excel is featured
prominently in this textbook.
In short, companies increasingly are using business
analytics to support
decision making, to recognize anomalies that require
tactical action, or to
gain strategic insight to align business processes with
business objectives.
Answers to questions such as “How likely is this
event?” or “What if this trend
continues?” will lead to appropriate actions.
Businesses that combine mana-
gerial judgment with statistical analysis are more
successful.
1.1 WHAT IS STATISTICS?
Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing,
analyzing, interpreting, and presenting data.
Some experts prefer to call statistics data science, a
trilogy of tasks involving data modeling,
analysis, and decision making. A statistic is a single
measure, reported as a number, used
LO 1-1
Define statistics and
explain some of its uses.
Juice Images/Getty Images
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4 Applied Statistics in Business and Economics
doa16287_ch01_002-023.indd 4 08/29/20 10:17 AM
to summarize a sample data set. Statistics may be
thought of as a collection of methodolo-
gies to summarize, draw valid conclusions, and make
predictions from empirical measure-
ments. Statistics helps us organize and present
information and extract meaning from raw
data. Although it is often associated with the sciences
and medicine, statistics is now used in
every academic field and every area of business.
Plural or Singular?
Statistics The science of collecting, organizing,
analyzing, interpreting, and present-
ing data.
Statistic A single measure, reported as a number,
used to summarize a sample data
set.
Sampling
and Surveys
(Ch 2)
Visual
Displays
(Ch 3)
Numerical
Summaries
(Ch 4)
Probability
Models
(Chs 5–8)
Estimating
Parameters
(Ch 8)
Testing
Hypotheses
(Chs 9–16)
Regression
and Trends
(Chs 12–14)
Quality
Control
(Ch 17)
Making Inferences
from Samples
Collecting and
Describing Data
Statistics
Figure 1.1
Overview of Statistics
Many different measures can be used to summarize
data sets. You will learn throughout
this textbook that there can be different measures for
different sets of data and different mea-
sures for different types of questions about the same
data set. Consider, for example, a sample
data set that consists of heights of students in a
university. There could be many different uses
for this data set. Perhaps the manufacturer of
graduation gowns wants to know how long to
make the gowns; the best statistic for this would be
the average height of the students. But an
architect designing a classroom building would want
to know how high the doorways should
be and would base measurements on the maximum
height of the students. Both the average
and the maximum are examples of a statistic.
You may not have a trained statistician in your
organization, but any college graduate is
expected to know something about statistics, and
anyone who creates graphs or interprets data
is “doing statistics” without an official title.
There are two primary kinds of statistics:
∙ Descriptive statistics refers to the collection,
organization, presentation, and summary of
data (either using charts and graphs or using a
numerical summary).
∙ Inferential statistics refers to generalizing from a
sample to a population, estimating
unknown population parameters, drawing
conclusions, and making decisions.
Figure 1.1 identifies the tasks and the text chapters for
each.
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Chapter 1 Overview of Statistics 5
doa16287_ch01_002-023.indd 5 08/29/20 10:17 AM
1.2 WHY STUDY STATISTICS?
A BusinessWeek article called statistics and
probability “core skills for business people” in
order to know when others are dissembling, to build
financial models, or to develop a market-
ing plan. The 2019 Job Outlook survey conducted by
the National Association of Colleges
LO 1-2
List reasons for a business
student to study statistics.
What Is Business Analytics?
Analytics is a broad field that uses statistics,
mathematics, and computational tools to
extract information from data. Analytics tools fall into
three categories: descriptive, predic-
tive, and prescriptive. This terminology derived from
the questions we are trying to answer.
What happened? Businesses use descriptive analytics
tools to analyze historical
data and help them identify trends and patterns.
What is likely to happen next? Businesses use
predictive analytics tools to predict
probabilities of future events and help them forecast
consumer behavior.
What actions do we take to achieve our goals?
Businesses use prescriptive ana-
lytics tools to help them make decisions on how to
achieve objectives within real-world
constraints.
Analytics in Action
Using Analytics to Improve Business
Descriptive Analytics: Google Analytics provides a
wide range of metrics for compa-
nies that want to better understand how their
websites operate. This type of descriptive
analytics allows companies to see, for example,
loading time for their pages in different
browsers and on different devices; how much time a
viewer spends on the page; and the
number of visits per hour, day, or week. In addition,
companies can see performance
measures such as bounce rate or click-through rate.
Bounce rate shows the percentage
of viewers who leave the site after viewing only the
homepage. Click-through rate is
the percentage of viewers who click on the ad when
they view it on a webpage. Both of
these metrics are important for evaluating the
effectiveness of a web design.
Predictive Analytics: In 2015 Oracle acquired
Datalogix, a company that analyzes
consumer purchasing behavior to help its customers
design the most effective digital mar-
keting campaigns. The acquisition of Datalogix
strengthened the tools Oracle provides
as part of its data cloud offerings. Predictive analytics
has been the key to Datalogix’s
success. Dr Pepper is one of its happy customers.
When Dr Pepper wanted to increase
sales, it turned to Datalogix for help in designing a
successful Facebook advertising cam-
paign. Through the use of analytics, Datalogix showed
that by targeting Facebook users
who purchased carbonated beverages and those who
purchased Dr Pepper products in
particular, Dr Pepper was able to increase its sales by
1.5 percent. And for every $1 spent
on advertising, Dr Pepper saw a $3 increase in
revenue. (www.datalogix.com)
Prescriptive Analytics: Hotel rooms and airplane seats
are perishable, just like
apples and lettuce. When a room or seat is not
booked, the company has lost the ability
to earn revenue for that night or flight. Setting the right
price for the right customer on
the right day is complicated. Hotels and airlines feed
large data sets into mathematical
algorithms that choose the optimal pricing scheme to
maximize the revenue for that
room or seat. This practice is called revenue
management and is an example of pre-
scriptive analytics. When large data sets are analyzed
along with system constraints,
companies can quickly simulate many different
outcomes related to a wide variety of
decisions. This allows the decision makers to choose
a set of actions that will result in
the best outcome for the company and its customers.
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6 Applied Statistics in Business and Economics
doa16287_ch01_002-023.indd 6 08/29/20 10:17 AM
and Employers (NACE) found that 72 percent of
employers ranked “analytical and quantita-
tive skills” as one of the most important attributes for
a new hire. When asked to rank the attri-
butes most sought after, employers said that the top
seven attributes were (1) communication
skills (written), (2) problem-solving skills, (3) ability to
work on a team, (4) initiative, (5) ana-
lytical/quantitative skills, (6) strong work ethic, and (7)
communication skills (verbal). Will
these skills earn you a higher salary? According to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median
salary for a statistician in 2019 was over $88,000 with
job growth projected to be 30 percent
over the next 10 years. (See
www.bls.gov/ooh/math/mathematicians-and-
statisticians.htm.)

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