Topic 3: Population Theories and

Models

Rygon J. M
Sub Topics
3.1 Basic population theories
3.2 Models and theories of migration
3.2.1 Classical models of migration
3.2.2 Neo-classical migration
theories/models
3.2.3 The political economy migration
theories
3.2.4 Spatial mobility migration theories
Definition Of Key Concept

i. Theory:
• a plausible or scientifically acceptable general
principle or body of principles offered to
explain phenomena
• It is therefore a set of beliefs or principles that
might not be proven yet.
• In science, is the way we interpret facts.
Concepts…

ii. Model:
• Is a graphical, mathematical, physical, or verbal
representation or simplified version of a concept,
phenomenon, relationship, structure, system, or
an aspect of the real world.
• A model is a simple representation of reality that
helps us to;
i. understand unknowns (how something works)
ii. predict what might happen
iii. aid in decision making by simulating 'what if'
scenarios
3.1 Basic Population Theories

The basic population theories include;

1) Malthusian Theory of Population
2) The Theory of Demographic Transition
Others include;
3) Boserup’s Theory of Agricultural Intensification
4) Marxist Theory on Population Growth
5) The Optimum Theory of Population
6) Catton’s “Overshoot” Theory in Population
7) Neo-malthusian
MALTHUSIAN THEORY OF
POPULATION
Thomas Malthus (1766 – 1834)

• The first British economist to

propose a systematic theory
of population
• Considered to be father of
Demographics
• Made observations of England’s
working class during industrial
revolution
Thomas Malthus…

• The Malthusian theory explains the relationship btn

the growth in food supply and in population.
• It states that, “population increases faster than food
supply and if unchecked leads to vice or misery”.
• Malthus book entitled “Essay on the Principle of
Population as it affects the Future Improvement of
Society” in 1798; and incorporated his researches in
the second edition published in 1803.
Thomas Malthus…

• Malthus argues that

world population is
growing geometrically,
while food production is
only increasing
arithmetically.
Thomas Malthus…

• In the Malthus doctrine, it is stated that:

i. There is a natural sex instinct in human
beings to increase at a fast rate. As a results,
popn increases in geometrical
progression and if unchecked doubles
itself every 25 yrs. Thus starting from 1,
popn in successive periods of 25 yrs will be
1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256 (after 200 yrs).
Thomas Malthus…

ii. On the other hand, the food supply

increases in a slow arithmetical
progression due to the operation of the
law of diminishing returns based on the
supposition that the supply of land is
constant. Thus the food supply in
successive similar periods will be
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, and 9 (after 200 yrs)
Thomas Malthus…

iii. Since population increases in geometrical

progression and the food supply in
arithmetical progression, population tends to
outrun food supply. Thus imbalance is created
which leads to over-population.
iv. To control over-population resulting from the
imbalance btn population and food supply,
Malthus suggested preventive checks and
positive checks.
POPULATION VS. RESOURCES

For stages 1-3 resources

exceed population, then
as population exceed
resources this leads to
“misery”
A. POSITIVE CHECKS (FACTORS INCREASING
MORTALITY)

• Malthus believed that natural forces will correct the

imbalance between food supply and population
growth. These are;
Natural disasters such as;
 Floods and
 Earthquakes
Man made actions such as;
 Diseases
 Warfare
 Famine
 Poor living and working environments
B. PREVENTIVE CHECKS (FACTORS
DECREASING FERTILITY)

• Abortion
• Contraceptive
• Prostitution
• Postponement of marriage
• Same sex marriages
• Celibacy and
• Masturbation
CRITICISMS OF THE
MALTHUSIAN THEORY

1. Mathematical Form of the Theory

Wrong
• Malthus did not provide calculations for the
geometric growth of populations and the
arithmetic growth of food for 25yrs.
• Since then, experts have pointed out that
the growth rates are not consistent with
Malthus’ predictions
CRITICISMS…

2. Failed to Foresee the Opening up of

New Areas
• Malthus influenced by the local conditions in
England
• He failed to foresee the opening up of new
areas of Australia, U.S and Argentina where
extensive farming of virgin lands led to
increased production of food.
CRITICISMS…
3. Population Growth
• The gloom and doom forecasts put forward
by Malthus have not played out. In Western
Europe, populations have grown (not at the
rate Malthus predicted) and food production
has also risen because of technological
advancements.
CRITICISMS…

4. Food Production
• Food production has dramatically increased
over the past century due to technological
advancement.
• Often, the food production rate has grown
higher than the population growth rate.
BOSERUP’S THEORY OF
AGRICULTURAL
INTENSIFICATION
ESTHER BOSERUP (1910 - 1999)

• A Danish economist
who specialized in the
economics and
development of
agriculture.
• In 1965 Boserup,
challenged Malthus and
come up with a new
theory
ESTHER BOSERUP (1910 - 1999)

• In (1965), Boserup challenged Malthus’s conclusion

that the size of the human population is limited by
the amount of food it can produce.
• Her theory states that; “agricultural methods and
productivity of food depend on the size of
population”
• She suggested that food production can, and will,
increase to match the needs of the population.
BOSERUP’S THEORY
ESTHER BOSERUP (1910 - 1999)

• Boserup argued that the threat of starvation and the

challenge of feeding more mouths motivates people to
improve their farming methods and invent new
technologies in order to produce more food.
• She described this change as ‘agricultural
intensification’. For example, a farmer who has four
fields to produce food for his family might grow crops
in three of the fields, but leave the fourth field empty
as the ground is dry and his crop will not grow there.
ESTHER BOSERUP (1910 - 1999)

• However if the farmer has two or more

children, the pressure to produce more food
might drive him to build irrigation canals to
bring water to the fourth field or to buy a
different type of seed that will grow in drier
ground.
• He would change the way he farms to make
sure that he has enough food to support a
larger family.
ESTHER BOSERUP (1910 - 1999)

Boserup’s argument:
• She argues that population growth is the
cause of agricultural change, not the
result, and that the principle change is the
intensification of the land use.
IN A SUMMARY…

• Therefore, increase in population would;

i. Stimulates technological development i.e. machines 4
prod
ii. People will find ways to increase production of food by
intensification of farms and increasing workforces
iii. Increases in population leads to mechanization i.e. use of
agricultural inputs (use of improved seeds, fertilizers,
pesticides etc) hence, more food is produced
iv. Increase in population acts a source of labourers in
various fields
v. Increase in population offers internal markets to the
produces commodities
DISCUSSION

1. Do you think Malthus was right and more

realistic today? How?
2. Do you think Boserup was right? How?
3. Do you think population pressure a threat to
development? How?
3.2 MODELS AND THEORIES
OF MIGRATION
CONCEPT OF HUMAN MIGRATION (HM)

Human Migration
Is the permanent or temporal movement of
people from one place to another.
HM*-any permanent change in residence
Therefore, HM;
• Can be temporal or permanent,
• May be voluntary or forced guided by different
models
DETERMINANTS OF HUMAN MIGRATION

Decisions on migration are shaped by

• Economic,
• Social,
• Political,
• Cultural factors
Migration models formalize these determinants.
Migration models may describe the effects of
migration at its origin and destination
OBJECTIVES OF MIGRATION
MODELS

To provide an analytic structure through

which the direct and indirect influences on
migration are identified, migration trends
are charted, and the impact on migration of
exogenous shocks, including policy changes,
are predicted
3.2.1 CLASSIC AL MODELS OF
MIGRATION

• These are the early theories/models of

migration.
i. Ravenstein's migration model
ii. Gravity model
iii. Intervening opportunity theory
1. RAVENSTEIN’S MIGRATION
MODEL

• Erenest George Ravestein was a German

geographer who worked at the Royal
Geographical Society in London
• After the remarks of the late Dr. William
Farr, to the effect that migration appeared
to go on without any definite law, he
developed the first law in migration
1. RAVENSTEIN’S MIGRATION MODEL

• Revenstens in 1885 proved him wrong when he

outlined the so called laws of migration in paper
presented to the Royal statistical society (England)
• This theory stated the main characteristics of
migration and their relationship to the physical
environment and level of development of an area
REVENSTEIN LISTED SEVEN SLIGHTLY LAWS
ABOUT MIGRATION LAWS AS FOLLOWS;

1) Most migrants move short distance only but those who

opt for long distances move to great centers of
commerce and industries.
2) Migration is sex selective for females are more
migratory than men but in short distances which
means the opposite for males. Males are more prone
to long migration that females because in many
societies females are more controlled than males.
3) In terms of volume of migration the volume of
migration increases as the Technology develops
RAVENSTEIN’S SEVEN SLIGHTLY LAWS
ABOUT MIGRATION…

4). There is a dominance of economic motives in migration

(economic factors are the main cause of migration )
than other aspects like social services, wars, relatives;
flood etc. Are not predominance to economic motives.
5). Where there is a stream of migration there is also a
counter stream (each migration flow produces a
compensating counter-flow)
6). Natives of towns are less migratory than those from
rural areas.
7). Migration goes by stage
CRITICISMS

1) Ravenstein turned social science laws to

physical science pure science law which is not
true e.g. it is not necessary that women must
move short distances; however his laws are
highly applicable.
2) The theory does not consider obstacles like
forests, large water bodies which may
influence the distance travelled.
3) Movement over short distance is called
mobility and not migration
2. GRAVITY MODEL

• In 1930-1940s various studied tried to familiarize

Ravenstein theory on the role of population size and
distance in determining interactions into the gravity
model basing on Newton’s law of Universal
gravitation which states that: “Two bodies in the
Universe attract each other in proportion to the
product of their masses and inversely
proportional to the square of the distance
between them”.
THE GRAVITY MODEL
2. GRAVITY MODEL

• The gravity models posit that migration

between place i and place j, Mij, is a positive
function of repulsive forces at i (Ri) and
attractive forces at j(Aj) and is inversely related
to the "friction" or distance
between i and j (Dij):
Mij= f(Ri, Aj)/g(D)
2. GRAVITY MODEL

• In practice, most formulations of the gravity

model simply assume that migration
between i and j is directly proportional to the
product of the two places' populations and
inversely proportional to the intervening
distance (Mij = Pij/D).
2. GRAVITY MODEL

• Gravity call it must that people from centre 1

will move to centre 2 the volume of migration
will be determined by distance this means that
the closer the distance the higher the volume
of migration.( Gravity is a force pulling
together all matter)
APPLIC ATION OF GRAVITY MODEL TO AFRIC A

1. At international level most of the migration

occur among the neighboring countries while
at national level these is intensive inter-
regional migration between neighboring
region.
2. Primate cities like Nairobi, Dar es Salaam also
Addis – Ababa and Kinshasa and Johannesburg
as great centres of commerce and industries
pull migrants from all over the countries and
beyond
WEAKNESSES OF THE THEORY

1. The model is more mathematical oriented

in such a way that it assumes that there is
no resistance of population from the area
of origin like water flowing from the load to
the sea
2. It doesn’t put into the model return
migrants and ignore the positive and
negative factors of migration like cost of
migration and obstacles before any
decision to migrate is made.
3.2.2 NEO-CLASSICAL MIGRATION
THEORIES/MODELS

1. Push and pull migration model

• This model was introduced by Sir Everett
Lee (1966) after classical model seen to be
very abstract on the main factors of
migration which made an individual or group
of people to decide to migrate
PUSH AND PULL MIGRATION MODEL
• People migrate for a number of reasons.
• The reasons can be put in four areas;
• Physical/Environment
• Economic
• Socio-Cultural
• Political
Within that, reasons may also be “push” or
“pull” factors
PUSH AND PULL MIGRATION MODEL

• The theory assumes that in every area there are

positive and negative factors encourage and
discourage to live that area.
• The area of origin may include property ownership
like land, House or physical condition like good climate
and disease, war, bad climate and disease.
• There are other factors which are classified as zero
which make people not decided whether to migrate
or not to migrate like law, education attainment,
marriage
PUSH AND PULL MIGRATION MODEL
PUSH AND PULL MIGRATION MODEL

• Negative and positive factors are found

both at the area of origin and destination;
• However for someone to migrate positive
factors at the area of destination must be
stronger than that of the area of origin.
• Negative factors at the area of destination
may be the results of lack of employment
and assimilation so migrants may be
forces to return to the area of origin.
PUSH AND PULL MIGRATION
MODEL
• Between the area of origin and destination
there are intervening obstacles which may
be slight or very bit for instance
• Distance,
• Transport
• Physical barriers (ocean and mountains)
• Fare etc.
PUSH AND PULL MIGRATION MODEL

• Furthermore there are many personal factors

which affect personal decisions to migrate. Some
are associated with age structure e.g. age entry
to labour force and also marriage.
• Others depend on personal xstics for some
people in order to migrate there must be a
compelling reasons, while for others just a little
promise is enough to make them to migrate;
• Furthermore, all people who migrate reach the
decision themselves therefore migration not
always rational.
WHAT ARE THE PUSH AND PULL FACTORS?
• Push Factors are those associated with the area of origin
• Pull Factors are associated with the area of destination
a)Economic Reasons:
Push Factors;
• More jobs
• Better jobs
• Higher wages
• The promise of a “better life”
Pull Factors
• Overpopulation
• Few jobs
• Low wages
PUSH AND PULL FACTORS

b)Social Reasons:
Push Factors;
• Prejudice towards a certain cultural group
• Active religious persecution
• Low standard of living
• Less health and education facilities
Pull Factors;
• Freedom from religious/religious liberty
• Better health and education facilities
• Better standard of living
PUSH AND PULL FACTORS

c)Physical/Environmental reasons:
Push Factors;
• Natural disasters
• Drought
• Famine and food insecurity
• Pollution
Pull Factors;
• Warm weather
• Food security
PUSH AND PULL FACTORS

d)Political Reasons:
Push Factors;
• Wars
• Totalitarian (autocratic) regime
• Political persecution/Lack of political liberty
Pull Factors;
• Peace
• Freedom fro political persecution
• This model is very simple to understand and
interprete i.e. the model doesn’t work on abstract
like the classical models.
3.2.3 THE POLITIC AL ECONOMY MIGRATION THEORIES

The theory has two assumptions

i. Centre periphery theory
• It is a theory that explores the relationship between
the centre and the hinterlands.
• The political economists analyze migration as the
change of social structures in the society and
migration is observed as a byproduct overall
strategy of development of the centre or capitalism.
• Amin, (1974) argued that the underdeveloped
traditional economies cause the problem of
migration in Africa.
THE POLITIC AL ECONOMY THEORIES

• During the colonial times when the economic

centres were established by the colonialists in
their reproductive dominations brought about the
concept of periphery and centre.
• However, it does not show the thresholds/limits
of centre neither peripheral.
THE POLITIC AL ECONOMY MIGRATION THEORIES
ii. Family life strategy theory
The theory related to the centre periphery survival
of family life strategy.
• It was established by Meillassoux,(1981)who
observed that migration is just an outlet of the
rural society to survive by providing cheap labour
to urban capitalists.
• The migrants are forced to maintain
communication with their rural areas because the
rural sector does not give them the economic
security
THE POLITIC AL ECONOMY
MIGRATION THEORIES
• Thus, the rural communities/families are
forced to urban migration as a way of
getting employment.
• Poor social strata makes it necessary for
poor people to be employed in urban sector
hence generate income and survival of the
household.
3.2.4 SPATIAL MOBILITY MIGRATION THEORIES

The model introduces by Akin Ladipo Mabogunje,

(1970).
• He considered that Rural – Urban Migration as a
process which links rural societies whereby main
economic activities is agriculture with Urban areas
as a more complex and specialized in industries
and commerce, the spatial movements
transformation of skills and motivations and
behavioural patterns in these changes enable the
migrants to change his/her rural background
permanently and become urbanized (urbanite).
SPATIAL MOBILITY MIGRATION THEORIES

• The process of interaction is composed by

elements in a given environments which
comprises a certain variables of chancy which
affect a system. E.g. villages which are more
exposed to urban can experience more Rural –
Urban migration than a closed village,
• These are strong link between Rural – Urban
economy which finally end up by integrating the
economy the systems operates into 2 systems.