Unit 7
Unit 7
Unit 7
7.11 Activity
Among the extreme weather events, Cyclones, also termed as Tropical Cyclones (TGs)are by far
the most devastating, both by causing loss of human lives as well as economic losses. The nal-r"~!
'cyclone' which mean'"coi1s of snake" in Greek was given to the revolving storms in the North
Indian Ocean by Henry Piddington who was the president of the Marine court i n Calcuttafronl~
1839 to 1856,in the mid- 15)"' century, and he wus the First to coin this word. These are called
Tropical Cyclones because they farm over the wann waters of tropicnl oceans, Intense low
pressure areas forming over higher latitudes iither over the land or over the ocean arc known as
ExtraTropical Cyclone. However, but for the similarity of name, there are Iwge differences between
the two types of weather systems. In this Unit, we shall confine oilrselves to cyclones that occur in
the tropical areas. While those occurring in the Inclian seas are called cyclones, those occu~~ing in
the Philippines and Clzina Sea are called typhoons, and those occurring in the Caribbean area are
called hurricanes. The Orissa Super Cyclone of Octobel; 1999, killing more than 10,000people
with estimated direct financial loss of about ten thousand croses of rupees is one exarnple of
terrible disaster potential cf tropical cyclones. Bnnglaclesh Cyclones of Novembel; 1970 ar~cl
April-May, 199 1 killing 300000 and 138000 human lives respective1y are exanlples of worst
natural disasters. The calamity tlwt the hurricane Katrinacauned in the New Orleans area of USA
in August, 2005 is of recent memory. Hanards associated with tropical cyclone ~ s u lfrom t very
strong winds causing damages of various types, very heavy rains callsing widespread floods and
the worst of all the stonn tide (the combined effect of stonn surge and astronomical tide) leading to
coastal inundations. Stoim surge is the sudden rise of sea level caused by cyclone. Among these
destructive fdctors, the storrn surge is the greatest killer and is known to be responsible for about
90 percent of the loss oFlives associated with cyclone disasters. In this Unit, we will disc~lssthe
causes of cyclone formation,adverseeffects,warning,forecasting and response system in disaster
management.
Over the globe, about 80-85 tropical cyclones (with wind speed 34 knots or more) form every
year and about 2/3 of these reach the very severe (wind speed 64 knots or more) stage. Most of
the cyclone formations (87%) take-place between 20" and 2 0 S but no formation occurs within
about 2- 1 I2 " latitude of the Equator. About two-thirds of all cyclones occur in the Northern
Hemisphere and twice as many tropical cyclones occur in the Eastern as coinpared to the Western
Hemisphere. These differences are due to absence of tropical cyclones in the South AtIantic and
the Eastern South Pacific Oceans. Tropical cyclones are seasonal phenomena and most basins
have amaximu~nfreq~rencyof fol~nationduring the summer to eal-lyFall period with peak occurring
during January to March in the Southern Hemisphere and July to September in the Northern
Hemisphere (NH) with the exception of North Indian Ocean where thcfrequency of tropical
cyclohe is bi-modal in character with primary peak in November and secondary peak in May.
Over the North Indian Ocean, (the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea), on an average, about 5-
6 tropical cyclones form every year, out of which 2-3 may be severe. More cyclones form in the
Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea. The ratio is about 4:1. The frequency of tropical cyclones
in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) is about the least in the world, but these are very severe when
they strike the coasts bordering the north Bay of Bengal. These constitute about 7 per cent of the
global total of about 80 tropical cyclones forming per year. Tropical cyclones in the North 1ndian
Ocean (NIO) form between 5 degree North and 20 degree North 1atitudes. Unlike other oceans
in the NH where there is only one season from May to November, there are two distinct seasons
Understanding Natural Disasters
of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, One is from May to June and the other, from
mid-September to inid-December. This is a special feature of the NIO region only. May,
June, October ancl November are luzown for severe storms in the Indian seas i.e, in the Bay
of Bcngal and the Arabian Sea. Almost the entire East Coast is vultierable to cyclolles with
varying frequency and intensity. The West Coast (coast north of Harnai port of Maharaslitra)
is more vulnerable as compared to the southwest coast: (south of Hanai). This means that
Kerala coast is not vulnerable to cyclones although Goamay be affected once in a while.
Although cyclonic storms also form sometimes during monsoon season (June-Sept) in the
NIo region but really a severe one is rare. Cyclones in the monsoon season are more marked
by rainfall.'
conditions are necessary, though not necessatjlysufficient,for cycclona formation. These conditions
are: (i) sufficiently large areas of ocean with sell-surface temperature around26-27degree celsius;
(ii) depth of warm water, atleast 50 to 60 metres so that sufficient supply of warm and moist air is
ensured; and (iii) initial rotation trigger should be provided by some favourable meteorological
condition..
Cyclones continue to gather strength while on warm seawater increasihg their spebdof movement
as well as the wind speed in the rotational field. They narrnally decay rapidly into a depression
after entering the land, nd at times ]nay continue moving as a depression over the land for afew
days
C
widespread rainfall but much less wind. Cyclones also die over the ocean by entering
a region of cold water or unfavourable lneteorological environment even when it is over the ocean.
7.3.2 rCyclonessStructure
The structure of arnature tropical cyclone can be discussed with respect to its shape and strength
of the winds. As already stated, Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can be regarded as p large rotating
cylindrical hass of the atmosphere extending horizontally from 1SO-1000 kin and vertically frorn
surface to 12-14 km. Fierce winds spiralling anti-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere (NH)
blow around the calm cyclone centre of the low pressure area in the lower level. At higher level,
the sense of rotation of wind is just opposite to that of the low'er level. Iri Southern Hemisphere
(SH), the sense of rotation of wind is opposite to that in the NH, The entire cyclonic stocm
generally moves 250-500 km per day (10 to 20 kmph) over the ocean. This is the speed of
movement of thecyclone. On the other hand, wind speed within such ncyclone can be as high as
200-250 kxnph, Distinction between the '$peed of the Cyclone' and 'Wind speed in a cyclone'
should therefore be clearly understood. Everywhere TCs are classified according to the wind
speed, which is the main destructivefeature of acylone, '
As already mentioned, a cyclone starts as a low-pressure area and passes through different stages
of its development and intensification. The classification of these stages as followed in India is
given in the table 7.1 below:
Table 7.1 Stages of Tropical Cyclone
It is evident frorn the table that the cyclone's wind speed has been classified in seven categories,
which ranges from less than 17 knots (3 1 krnph) to super cyclone storm with wind speed of more
than 119 knots (221 kmph and above).
It is natural that in a cyclone extending about 1000 kmhorizontally and 12 km vertically, the wind
speed will not be the same throughoG. It is a highly variable wind field. The wind Weld in a cyclone
90 Understanding Natural Disasters
can be discussed in tenns of its horizontal and vertical distribution. Horizontally,the wind field in a
cyclone can be divided into three major zones viz., (i) the central area, known as 'Eye' with an
average radius of 20-30 kin. with calm or very little wind (ii) followed outwards by a narrow zone
of 15-20 krn. wide surrounding the eye lcnown as Zone of Maximu~nWind or Wall Cloud Zone
where the wind speed is mnximum, and (iii) the zone followed thereafter known as Outer Wind
Zone extending upto 300 to 500 km.from the centre where wind speed gradually decreases with a
distance. Vertically, wind field can also be divided into three zonesna~nely,(i) the Intllaw Layer,
where wind rotates anti-clockwise in the NH and moves inward, the layer extends from surface to
about 5.4kms. above, (ii) the Middle Layer, where wind mainly circulate in an anti-clockwise
manner with nolvcry little inward comnponentand extends from about 5.4 km. to 9 km., and findly,
(iii) the Outflow Layer, where the wind rotates in clock-wise manner in NH and goes out of the
cyclone field.
The pressmre is the lowest in the centre (eye) of the cyc1011-eand increases in all directions as one
,moves outwards from the centre. The temperature is the warmest in the eye of the cyclone and
decreases outwards. In the courscof movement of cyclone, rain and winds cease when the eye is
over a stdtion but within a couple of hours they commence again.
As stated above, the eye (central portion) of the tropical cyclone is alnlost cloud free, surrounded
by walls of clouds known as the Wall Cloud Zone. This wall cloud zone coincides with the zone of
the maximum wind. Thus this zone, though very narrow, constitutes the most hazardous zone of a
tropicill cyclone,'as winds here are extretneiy strong, rainfall is very heavy, vet"cca1 velocity is large
and the convective clouds arranged in the form of a wall are very tall. Clouds o~\tside the wall cloud
are arranged in bands and finally these bands merge with the wall cloud zone surrounding the
central portion of the cyclone,
7.4.1 Winds
Besides the horizontal and vertical variation of wind discussed earlier (in Section 7.3.2),cyclone
wind field can bedivided with respect to its direction of motion like Right Half a n d k f t Half as well
as Forward Half and Rear Half. Combining these togeth r, the cyclone field can therefore be
divided in four sectors, likeRight Forward, Left Forward andRight Rear and Left Rear sectols.
In general, the winddirection and speed differ from sector to sector resulting in different impact in
each sector. The wind speed is more in the right half compared to left half. The wind in the right
forward sector is frorn the ocean to land whereas that in the left forward sector is frbm land to
ocean. Thus, cyclonic wind forces the seawater to surge; towards the coast in the right forward
sector where storm surge maxima is observed inundating the coastal areas. On the other hand, in
left forward sector, winds are from land to ocean, which pushes the water away from the coast
towards the ocean. Such differences in wind direction and speed around the cyclone make the
right forward sector of a cyclone inore destructive compared to other sectors.
The world record of highest sustained wind speed in acyclone is held by H~~rricane Inez, which
struckUSA in 1966. The highest recorded wind was 317 kinph with gusts exceeding 360 kmph,
In theNorth Indian Ocean area,, tropical cyclones in most cases have wind speeds not exceeding
185 kmh, although there have been more intense sto~.~ns also. It is difficult to record wind speed
beyond a certain limit as wind-recording instruments normally break down. The highest wind
speedcan however be estiinated by indirect methods like satellite technique. The kstirnated highest
wind speed associated with tropical cyclones in Indinn region in the past is about 140 knots
:about 260 km/li) in association with Anclhra Pradesh cyclone of 1977 and the Qrissa cycloneof
3ctober 1999.
7.4.2 Rainfall
Xainfall activity associated with a tropical cyclone generally depends on its size, strength, wind
;peed and direction of movement. The rainfall is more in the case of large size cyclone compared
.o a slnaller one. Rainfall is inore in the case of an intense cyclone coinpared to a weaker one. It
s more in the case of slow moving cyclone compared to fast moving one. In association with a .
ivestward moving cyclone inIndia, heaviest rainfall is generally observed in the left forward sector,
:tlouglithe spread of rai~~fall
is more in the right i'o~wardsector. Heavy rainfall is gelierally confined
within 150-200 knl, from the cyclone centre decreasing drastically thereafter with distance and
~ecominginsignificant at [a distance of 500 km, or~nore.The heaviest rainfall is generally observed
3ver the wall cloud zone. This is, however, a general picture and rainpal l being a highly variable
pantity in space and time, it varies from system to system.
Rainfall of the order of 20 to 30 cm per day is common with acyclone. Associated with a tropical
:yclone, 24 hours cumulative rainfall can be around 100cm. In the extreme, observed rainfall
mociated with tropical cyclone can be as Ilig11 as 250cin.
The fdctors on which the storm surge depends are: (a) differenceof pressure between the centre of
the cyclone and its periphery (pressure drop); higher the pressure drop greater is the surge, (b)
~adiusof maximum wind zone, (c) speed and direction of motion of the tropical cyclone, and (d)
the bottom topoglaphy of the coast below sea water.
The sea level also fluctuates due to astronomicaI reasons known as tide. High and low tides
alternate every six hours making the tides high and. low twice in a day. The rise due to tide may be
as high as 4.5m above the mean sea level in some parts of Indian coasts like North Orissa- West
Bellgsll coast add Gulf of Cambay off Saurashtrtlcoast.The advancing storm surge is superimposed
ail normal asfronomical tides. This build up of water can create wall of water 1Ometres or Inore in
height coming in with greet speed and cause severe flooding in the coastal areas. The worst
devastation takes place when peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. The sheer force of impact
of enor~nousvolume of water is highly destn~ctive.What inakes it worse is the fact that the storm
surge inundates the coast with corrosive sea water, Significant storm surge affects allnost all parts
of Indian east coast and the coast of Bangladesh,
7.5.1 Organisation
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has a well established organisational set up for
observing, detecting, tracking and forecasting cyclones and issuing cyclone warnings whenever a
cyclone develops in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Cyclone whrnings are provided
through six Cyclone Waining Centres locited at KoIkata, Bhubaneshwar,Vishakdpatnam, Chennai,
Murnbai atid Ahmedabad. These centres have distin'ct responsibilities,areawise,covering both the
east and west coasts of India and the oceanic areas of theBay of Bengal and the ~kabianSea,
including Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshwadeep. The cyclone warning bulletins urc
issued to tlie All India Radio and Doordarshan for broadcast/t~lecastin different languages. On an
all India basis such warnings are issued to All India radio andDoordarshan,New Delhi from the
Cyclone Warning Division at HQ office, New Delhi. IMD, through its HQ office at New Delhi
p~.ovidecyclone information to the Control Room and Crisis Management Group set up in the
Ministly of Home Affairs, Government of India, who is finally responsible to coordinate actions of
various other central government agencies for taking effectivedisaster mitigation measuses. IME)'s
Cyclone Warning Division at New Delhi also caters to the need of international requiren~entssuch
as issue of Cyclo~~e Advisories to its neighbouring countries.Considering its cyclone warning
capabilities, the IndiaMeteorological Department, New Delhi has been designated as the Regional
Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) - Tropical Cyclone -New Dellli, by the World
Meteorblogical Organization (WMO)which is one among the five such centres in the world t111sted
with the cyclor-lewarning services for their area of responsibility.
7.5.2 Cyclone Monitoring
IMDYscyclone tracking system is an integrated system consisting of 562 observatories for taking
lneteorological data from the earth's surface, 98 observatories for making measurements of wind
in the upper atmosphere up to altitudes of 20-25 km, 35 observatories for making measurements
of pressure, temperature and humidity to an altitude of 20-25 km, sl~ipsobservations, 10 cyclone
detection reader along the coasts and Geo-stationary ENSAT satellites. Powerful Cyclone Detection
Radars with a range of 400 km are installed at Kolkata, Paradip, Vishakhapatrzam, Machilipatnam,
Chennai, Karaikal on the east-coast and Goa, Cochin, Murnbai and Bhuj along the west-coast.
Recently, the conventional radars at Chennai and Kolkata have been replaced by Doppler Radars,
which in addition can provide wind information close to the coast over the ocean. More Doppler
Radars are planned for installationalong the coast. The present cyclone surveillance system in the
country is such that no cyclone in the region can escape detection at any time of its life period.
RESPONSE
Response is an important cornponent of an efficient cyclone warning system. Response means a
clear perception on the part of warnees (recipients of warnings), Government, and Public about
a tropical cyclone, its consequences and actions that need to be taken in the event of a tropical
cyclone threat. Response includes the existence and activation of a Disaster Management Plan
and identified agencies for carrying out disaster preparedness measures for action during and
immediatelyafter a tropical cyclone.
Though the cyclone warnings in India are being issued from the middle of the lgh century, yet until
25-30 years ago, the interaction between the warnees and wuncrs (issuing authority of warnings)
were very little. During the past three decades, good progress has been made in this sector though
still much needs to be done. A major initiative taken in India to organise the response was through
the constitution of Cyclone Disaster Mitigation Committees (CDMC's) in the frequently cyclone
affected coastal States of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal during the seventies (1970s)
in the past century. These Committees brought together the meteorologists and all organisations
connected with disaster management like concerned Central and State Government officials, major
transport and co~nmunicationdepartment officials, police, military, media etc. and made them to
suggest improvement in the various components of cyclone warning systems and to formulate
actions that need to be taken by each of them in the case of a cyclone threat. Later, a Cyclone
Review Committee constituted by the Department of Science and Technology, Government of
India (DST) after the 1977 cyclone of Andhra Pradesh reviewed the cyclone warning systems and
made comprehensive recommendations. These initiatives helped in the improvement of warning
system and its credibility as well as response to warnings.
With titne, the response scenario specially at the Government level, has however changed
considerably. To co-ordinate all activities related to natural disaster (of which cyclone is one)
management, a National Disaster Management (NDM) Division has been created in the Home
Ministry. A National Institute for Disaster Management (NIDM) has been established under the
aegis of the Ministry of Home Affairs in New Delhi. The NDM Division in the Home Ministry has
been designated as the Nodal Agency to coordinate all activities related to natural disaster
management at the Central level. A Control Room functions in the NDM division, in the Home
Ministry to maintain the flow of information and coordinate with various agencies in the Central
and State Governments It works round the clock during an emergency situation on the basis of
receipt of first information about the occurrence or anticipated occurrence of a natural calamity
such as a cyclone.
The management of disasters such as cyclones has gathered further momentum by organisationof
the Central Disaster Management Authority under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister of
India. The vulnerable States are establishing similar Authorities at the state level. Orissa and
Gujarat - vulnerable to cyclones along with other coastal states were the first to establish State
Disaster Management Authorities.