CLIMATE

OUTLOOK
NOVEMBER 2023 – APRIL 2024

Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Presented by:
RUSY G. ABASTILLAS
Senior Weather Specialist, CLIMPS-CAD
ENSO Update

Climate Outlook
(NOVEMBER 2023 – APRIL 2024)

Summary
El Niño Update
as of 23 October 2023 Conditions in the Tropical Pacific
Oceanic Indicator Atmospheric Indicator

⮚ In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above

➢ Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and
average across most of the Pacific Ocean, with near-to- precipitation) were evident around Indonesia.
below average SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean. ➢ Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and
precipitation) were observed from the western Pacific and
extend, just north of the equator, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml
El Niño Update
as of 23 October 2023

➢ Positive subsurface temperature

anomalies dominate most of the
equatorial Pacific Ocean.

➢ Positive subsurface temperature anomalies weakened

around 140ºW-110ºW, with negative anomalies
emerging at depth (50-150m).

➢ During the last 4 weeks, above-average

SSTs have strengthened near the Date
Line, while weakening in the eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean.
What are the chances?

Model output (Purely objective)

ENSO probability forecast

Model output + Expert judgment

ENSO probability forecast
ENSO STRENGTHS
> 1.0 o C > 1.5 o C
Season La Niña Neutral El Niño > 0.5 o C
TARGET (MODERATE EL (STRONG EL
(WEAK EL NIÑO)
NIÑO) NIÑO)
SON 0 0 100
SON ~100 ~100 83
OND 0 0 100
OND ~100 99 77
NDJ 0 0 100
NDJ ~100 97 75
DJF 0 1 99
DJF 99 92 62
JFM 0 3 97 JFM 97 81 42
FMA 0 9 91 FMA 91 59 19
MAM 0 20 80 MAM 80 37 6
AMJ 1 38 61 AMJ 61 20 2
MJJ 6 53 41 MJJ 41 11 1
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php
El Niño Update
as of 23 October 2023 until when? Global Model Forecast Guidance

The ECMWF ensemble favor a strong El Niño in the coming months.

• The majority of models indicate El Niño will persist through

April-June 2024 and then transition to ENSO-neutral.

• At its peak (November-January), nearly all models suggest

a moderate-to-strong El Niño (ONI values at or greater than
1.0ºC).
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) indicates El Niño will
continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024. A
moderate-to-strong El Niño is favored (ONI between 1.0ºC and
2.0ºC).
ENSO Alert System Status:
EL NIÑO ADVISORY

Moderate El Niño continues to persist in the tropical

Pacific and is predicted to become strong in the coming
months. (updated 25 October 2023)

El Nino Advisory #4 issued

El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could

bring negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the
country.
Weather systems that may affect the country
November 2023 – April 2024

NORTHEAST LOCALIZED SHEARLINE INTER-TROPICAL

MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS FRONTAL
SYSTEM CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)

RIDGE OF HIGH
EASTERLIES PRESSURE AREA
LOW PRESSURE AREA (LPA) TROPICAL CYCLONES

(HPA)
ABOUT OUR RAINFALL MAPS
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than or = 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

Greater than 120 above normal

For more details
and updates

Rainfall Surplus or Reduction

MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST NOVEMBER 2023
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

28 54 2 0
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST DECEMBER 2023
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 39 45 0
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST JANUARY 2024
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

11 58 15 0
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST FEBRUARY 2024
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

40 41 3 0
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST MARCH 2024
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

40 42 2 0
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST APRIL 2024
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

5 72 2 0
FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (November 2023 - April 2024) as of October 23, 2023

PROVINCE NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR PROVINCE NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR PROVINCE NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ABRA 19.0 57.8 32.7 8.5 13.4 49.5 MARINDUQUE 41.0 82.1 80.0 44.2 43.8 48.8 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 57.1 78.5 53.3 40.9 34.8 60.2
BENGUET 33.6 57.5 42.4 11.6 33.2 73.6 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 25.9 66.7 56.8 24.5 24.6 36.6 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 53.7 80.6 58.0 45.3 38.3 64.2
IFUGAO 34.2 61.8 56.7 22.7 36.1 66.9 ORIENTAL MINDORO 32.3 73.3 63.8 33.7 31.2 45.6 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 53.8 81.8 56.6 45.0 39.0 60.8
KALINGA 34.8 60.7 45.3 17.0 24.8 61.7 ROMBLON 41.7 82.5 79.8 36.3 37.4 47.3 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
APAYAO 33.0 61.6 50.8 23.5 27.2 55.7 PALAWAN 42.9 61.4 30.8 16.1 12.1 42.8 BUKIDNON 62.4 84.7 69.9 68.9 65.0 61.3
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 33.3 60.6 48.1 17.9 29.4 64.0 SPRATLY ISLANDS 29.5 58.3 26.1 14.5 12.3 41.6 CAMIGUIN 62.2 79.4 64.3 61.0 59.1 60.8
REGION I REGION V (BICOL) LANAO DEL NORTE 56.0 75.9 63.4 49.0 48.2 60.5
ILOCOS NORTE 18.9 55.8 37.3 9.7 11.6 25.9 ALBAY 50.2 80.4 88.3 33.7 62.4 60.4 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 62.5 74.6 57.1 41.5 39.1 63.3
ILOCOS SUR 26.6 57.3 29.8 7.4 17.3 56.7 CAMARINES NORTE 50.3 84.4 76.5 49.1 45.3 43.4 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 55.6 77.9 66.1 62.2 61.8 54.3
LA UNION 44.3 56.8 35.8 8.3 29.0 50.6 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
CAMARINES SUR 42.4 83.0 78.3 43.2 48.6 65.3
PANGASINAN 11.7 56.7 29.1 4.0 17.4 73.3 DAVAO DE ORO 57.8 83.4 79.7 72.3 65.3 87.3
CATANDUANES 50.9 80.8 76.7 51.8 49.5 69.6
REGION II DAVAO CITY 95.2 85.4 81.2 78.6 84.7 85.4
MASBATE 56.1 83.1 83.2 37.6 39.6 43.3
BATANES 32.0 87.6 86.6 67.4 84.2 64.5 DAVAO DEL NORTE 86.8 85.9 77.9 78.7 75.6 77.9
SORSOGON 66.8 81.5 82.2 38.4 49.5 66.0
CAGAYAN 38.7 67.1 63.7 34.2 39.8 60.9 DAVAO DEL SUR 67.3 85.3 85.8 65.4 78.0 86.7
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
ISABELA 37.0 67.9 66.9 30.8 40.4 66.0 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 58.5 86.0 85.8 54.0 67.5 80.1
AKLAN 68.7 79.0 75.8 42.7 33.2 62.0
NUEVA VIZCAYA 28.6 61.4 55.1 25.4 42.0 66.9 DAVAO ORIENTAL 58.8 82.6 81.8 67.2 63.9 82.6
ANTIQUE 47.0 76.2 55.7 32.3 29.3 43.0
QUIRINO 39.4 68.1 70.8 41.3 53.7 76.5 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
CAPIZ 75.3 82.1 79.3 48.1 33.9 66.0
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTH COTABATO 53.6 85.9 85.0 53.1 64.2 78.0
GUIMARAS 31.6 82.1 47.3 30.6 29.8 32.6
BATAAN 16.7 52.8 26.1 12.5 11.0 12.6 COTABATO 68.0 83.5 80.2 68.5 67.7 74.6
ILOILO 52.3 81.5 62.9 38.0 32.6 47.6
BULACAN 44.4 78.7 52.4 40.8 37.6 76.4 SARANGANI 52.8 86.5 85.4 50.3 64.3 80.5
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 48.4 80.4 47.8 37.6 31.9 45.2
NUEVA ECIJA 35.2 61.1 40.0 23.6 35.7 58.7 SULTAN KUDARAT 60.2 83.8 82.1 59.0 59.9 72.6
PAMPANGA 28.9 65.3 41.2 36.5 28.8 53.2 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) REGION XIII- CARAGA
TARLAC 25.9 57.6 30.7 19.4 21.2 56.8 NEGROS ORIENTAL 46.2 76.7 44.4 42.6 41.3 42.7 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 78.0 82.8 79.8 88.8 72.7 67.9
ZAMBALES 12.4 49.6 20.4 10.8 11.5 61.5 BOHOL 59.2 82.9 59.8 50.0 53.7 52.6 AGUSAN DEL SUR 72.4 86.0 79.7 86.1 73.4 74.5
AURORA 67.3 71.6 70.5 54.5 63.8 79.9 CEBU 50.8 82.0 58.5 44.9 47.6 47.1 DINAGAT ISLANDS 68.5 83.7 73.5 58.5 59.5 70.3
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION SIQUIJOR 49.4 76.1 50.2 46.1 50.7 43.5 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 72.0 82.9 77.1 72.6 68.3 71.9
METRO MANILA 18.1 83.0 43.7 21.1 20.1 57.0 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) SURIGAO DEL SUR 72.7 85.2 83.3 86.3 74.8 77.4
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) BILIRAN 56.9 85.3 75.5 38.2 49.3 58.2 BARMM
BATANGAS 39.4 78.5 58.8 31.5 25.4 49.0 EASTERN SAMAR 59.1 86.9 74.2 38.5 51.2 74.4 BASILAN 43.4 87.3 56.6 46.5 37.8 66.2
CAVITE 0.1 75.9 44.5 18.3 14.5 6.8 LEYTE 56.6 86.2 75.5 42.2 51.5 59.2 MAGUINDANAO 63.2 81.8 80.4 62.9 54.9 72.5
LAGUNA 25.9 83.2 60.1 34.1 29.7 69.0 NORTHERN SAMAR 63.5 84.7 75.7 37.8 49.0 57.8 LANAO DEL SUR 60.7 78.4 68.9 56.7 53.1 65.5
RIZAL 0.9 84.0 56.2 31.7 30.8 72.2 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 63.2 86.1 75.0 37.1 51.6 66.5 SULU 56.8 79.5 50.8 42.0 40.2 62.3
QUEZON 56.8 83.7 78.3 50.1 52.2 56.0 SOUTHERN LEYTE 55.7 83.2 69.5 51.7 48.8 63.5 TAWI-TAWI 54.5 74.6 45.4 36.5 37.4 58.0
Forecast Rainfall in millimeters (mm) – (Nov2023 – Apr 2024)
PROVINCE NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL
CO RDIL L ERA ADMINIS T RAT IV E REG IO N MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 3.8 103.1 56.6 26.3 77.3 50.6 0.7 15.3 5.6 0.2 6.3 2.6 1.2 14.4 6.4 7.5 55.3 31.5
BENGUET 4.9 90.4 49.7 28.1 78.1 49.9 4.8 25.0 12.4 1.2 12.4 5.5 10.5 30.3 22.9 42.9 92.5 74.0
IFUGAO 68.5 108.7 82.5 69.5 147.5 105.6 14.9 40.9 27.3 6.3 18.0 10.9 17.9 32.5 23.8 47.4 74.8 58.5
KALINGA 81.7 116.8 99.3 65.6 120.8 91.8 6.9 25.0 14.6 3.4 7.9 5.4 7.4 15.3 11.0 31.5 56.0 48.1
APAYAO 54.6 112.9 94.9 59.7 135.3 97.5 10.8 65.9 34.4 5.0 28.0 14.3 5.3 19.6 11.0 23.4 53.0 38.4
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 82.4 97.7 87.8 57.8 131.5 88.2 7.3 32.3 16.6 3.9 10.1 6.3 13.0 23.4 17.0 44.4 74.8 56.9
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 2.1 90.5 31.3 20.5 116.0 53.2 1.0 63.7 20.6 0.0 27.2 7.8 0.0 19.6 5.8 1.8 34.3 13.6
ILOCOS SUR 19.0 90.8 48.1 17.8 62.4 37.9 0.7 10.4 4.9 0.0 5.1 2.7 0.1 25.9 12.0 5.6 92.2 43.2
LA UNION 12.0 74.5 49.9 24.5 36.3 29.7 2.3 8.6 4.7 0.7 3.8 2.3 9.0 27.0 19.5 26.1 83.0 66.3
PANGASINAN 2.2 79.8 27.0 21.2 70.8 31.2 1.8 27.7 3.9 0.0 14.9 2.7 1.4 23.3 8.2 16.3 67.6 51.5
REGION II
BATANES 64.5 99.8 81.9 143.5 165.3 153.2 122.3 135.3 128.8 44.3 68.4 57.4 44.8 46.8 45.7 37.1 40.1 37.9
CAGAYAN 80.5 185.8 112.6 94.7 230.7 142.7 17.4 168.0 61.7 5.7 75.9 24.8 7.6 50.9 20.0 23.3 54.5 36.0
ISABELA 76.3 241.0 112.8 115.5 364.1 200.6 21.1 162.8 77.3 6.6 74.9 30.8 10.5 95.3 41.5 30.8 102.9 56.0
NUEVA VIZCAYA 9.6 167.0 96.4 51.2 227.6 129.3 16.4 131.0 53.2 7.4 93.9 31.4 18.2 113.0 46.3 39.3 159.8 74.2
QUIRINO 86.1 261.8 146.0 150.8 363.8 238.0 50.1 160.1 110.9 21.7 95.6 62.9 35.4 115.9 81.4 52.3 160.6 98.0
REGION III
BATAAN 34.8 91.3 36.6 32.1 86.9 51.1 1.8 4.0 2.6 0.5 3.5 1.4 1.1 7.9 3.0 0.0 9.4 1.0
BULACAN 53.6 220.8 113.1 67.5 285.9 152.5 7.0 125.3 37.1 0.0 127.2 26.1 0.2 102.2 23.4 13.2 143.2 34.0
NUEVA ECIJA 0.0 971.3 152.3 31.7 241.2 104.5 15.5 122.7 41.8 15.7 114.3 30.3 0.0 100.5 33.8 3.5 176.6 56.1
PAMPANGA 2.4 88.5 22.0 30.8 114.1 62.2 1.6 22.9 6.7 2.2 14.5 4.1 2.3 20.6 11.7 1.9 35.0 11.6
TARLAC 7.4 97.7 53.9 21.0 64.1 31.2 1.4 9.8 1.8 0.2 6.5 1.5 3.1 16.8 7.1 9.3 54.6 35.1
ZAMBALES 0.1 74.8 29.5 16.6 41.9 24.7 0.4 3.7 1.4 0.2 4.5 1.7 0.5 11.3 4.5 4.0 62.2 31.3
AURORA 131.9 1104.8 351.0 178.6 448.3 311.4 99.1 204.5 155.3 71.2 129.4 100.1 84.3 150.1 116.0 85.5 192.6 147.1
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 6.8 129.1 28.4 95.4 168.9 127.1 3.7 34.4 16.9 5.4 14.2 6.1 1.7 13.3 6.7 4.9 38.7 22.2
REGION IV-A
BATANGAS 85.1 250.5 108.5 99.5 327.6 192.5 10.2 98.5 40.7 4.4 44.0 17.8 3.9 37.2 15.3 8.0 60.0 31.5
CAVITE 13.5 86.0 7.9 90.1 151.8 115.9 4.9 22.4 10.9 2.4 8.6 4.2 1.8 7.2 3.7 1.0 19.2 5.4
LAGUNA 50.3 324.0 106.2 132.1 438.5 275.8 15.6 166.2 76.6 4.6 89.3 37.0 3.9 78.6 31.8 8.0 93.6 50.6
RIZAL 0.6 143.4 3.4 152.7 387.9 253.2 27.6 145.4 76.4 6.5 84.8 39.5 7.7 75.1 34.7 24.5 88.4 53.5
QUEZON 33.6 480.1 284.0 241.3 554.4 427.6 55.4 308.4 171.0 22.8 157.9 87.9 18.9 141.7 75.1 29.6 172.6 65.1
REGION IV-B
MARINDUQUE 153.8 203.6 165.8 295.2 385.8 338.7 108.3 148.8 128.7 43.9 61.4 52.6 38.8 52.8 45.9 40.7 51.0 43.2
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 16.5 120.8 79.4 78.9 198.3 138.0 12.0 61.6 33.2 0.7 28.0 15.1 2.5 24.7 13.9 5.5 54.3 27.4
ORIENTAL MINDORO 37.3 148.5 102.4 109.2 261.4 186.1 29.5 87.5 58.5 8.3 37.2 25.2 9.3 32.8 22.6 9.6 65.5 40.4
ROMBLON 91.0 153.4 122.5 184.0 277.9 239.7 83.4 115.7 99.9 28.9 41.9 33.4 27.6 38.9 32.8 29.5 42.2 34.9
PALAWAN 8.9 227.0 98.1 63.4 127.3 107.3 2.9 34.3 14.4 0.1 19.8 8.4 0.1 17.5 7.9 2.4 44.6 28.6
SPRATLY ISLANDS 52.9 56.2 53.4 75.2 80.0 76.1 11.6 11.9 11.7 5.2 5.4 5.3 4.6 5.6 5.4 21.2 21.4 21.2
REGION V
ALBAY 4.0 408.1 160.6 295.5 430.0 347.3 119.4 263.6 177.0 27.7 98.2 53.0 42.1 125.8 76.5 28.4 154.5 51.0
CAMARINES NORTE 206.9 275.8 249.1 409.5 522.1 500.6 158.1 225.6 208.1 72.7 114.2 103.9 54.2 85.2 75.6 32.9 58.8 47.1
CAMARINES SUR 4.1 246.5 150.5 276.3 490.8 365.9 97.5 196.5 146.6 26.7 98.1 57.7 28.6 80.0 52.3 11.6 87.6 47.7
CATANDUANES 198.4 220.6 206.7 396.9 428.8 417.1 200.1 235.6 216.3 83.2 96.1 90.9 79.0 93.7 85.8 71.6 111.0 91.7
MASBATE 64.8 199.5 151.5 237.1 353.7 298.4 100.5 221.9 167.3 28.7 67.3 46.8 22.6 78.5 50.0 9.9 67.1 35.8
SORSOGON 142.4 408.1 295.3 326.0 433.1 396.5 165.4 279.6 245.3 43.8 98.3 83.0 66.6 117.9 103.7 30.9 155.0 106.7
Forecast Rainfall in millimeters (mm) – (Nov2023 – Apr 2024)
PROVINCE NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL
REGION VI MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
AKLAN 91.2 384.9 235.0 171.8 254.2 215.0 82.5 167.3 124.8 29.9 67.5 47.6 27.9 59.1 42.4 29.5 77.9 54.5
ANTIQUE 65.4 246.8 121.3 114.1 209.2 159.8 30.6 118.9 76.7 12.4 46.7 30.4 12.3 42.8 29.9 20.0 57.3 32.2
CAPIZ 118.6 333.8 265.7 180.0 269.9 229.7 88.0 190.0 134.0 24.2 79.5 51.7 13.8 70.1 44.6 8.0 85.0 57.9
GUIMARAS 34.5 68.9 45.3 131.4 144.9 133.9 23.4 45.7 29.6 11.4 18.4 14.8 16.6 20.5 17.4 17.9 29.6 21.9
ILOILO 28.3 392.8 146.3 121.3 251.4 179.3 30.6 145.2 84.3 10.5 58.7 32.8 16.6 52.7 31.6 17.4 77.9 37.7
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 61.5 123.2 107.5 128.3 206.4 149.5 23.5 107.5 46.4 19.0 43.5 28.7 15.5 39.4 24.9 31.0 44.2 39.0
REGION VII
NEGROS ORIENTAL 55.6 127.9 97.6 120.0 154.1 133.2 30.8 57.1 40.9 26.8 41.0 33.2 20.5 37.2 30.8 16.8 44.2 32.4
BOHOL 70.6 141.6 120.4 142.6 244.2 185.5 62.0 172.1 113.3 41.7 106.7 67.0 40.5 71.7 55.8 26.8 59.0 44.6
CEBU 58.0 206.3 109.0 123.8 315.9 182.5 43.4 220.8 89.9 33.8 89.6 45.4 32.0 86.6 42.5 18.6 67.9 38.4
SIQUIJOR 76.2 119.2 98.7 129.8 146.7 140.0 55.9 69.1 62.7 39.8 45.5 42.6 38.4 45.5 42.1 23.7 41.9 33.0
REGION VIII
BILIRAN 171.8 199.1 176.4 341.6 364.7 354.4 204.8 231.2 223.0 69.8 79.8 75.2 82.2 96.5 91.2 65.0 74.6 66.9
EASTERN SAMAR 187.4 294.9 235.3 416.6 478.8 447.4 297.3 385.3 340.3 104.0 165.2 125.2 108.5 159.9 134.8 76.5 155.2 114.6
LEYTE 110.8 215.3 181.6 258.1 410.2 345.8 184.6 295.3 247.0 69.8 134.2 99.9 57.6 118.2 97.4 45.5 88.3 68.1
NORTHERN SAMAR 180.7 319.5 262.3 370.8 518.0 467.4 241.9 375.0 339.3 72.4 114.5 105.1 85.5 150.8 131.7 52.6 81.8 79.2
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 164.5 283.3 217.0 365.2 469.7 424.5 232.4 345.1 297.2 71.7 129.6 100.1 87.2 143.5 121.8 65.5 140.0 90.3
SOUTHERN LEYTE 106.5 296.9 161.1 254.7 367.5 321.9 186.0 371.5 273.7 98.4 241.6 144.4 55.2 178.3 104.2 45.5 136.9 65.4
REGION IX
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 51.6 265.2 139.7 91.7 170.1 133.5 41.7 82.1 62.4 28.6 47.1 40.7 26.4 38.1 31.7 42.8 71.7 60.6
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 29.5 175.7 103.3 82.4 151.2 122.2 38.7 73.7 60.5 25.0 49.7 41.9 22.1 43.2 35.0 52.4 71.2 64.5
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 86.7 114.8 97.8 102.6 132.2 116.9 47.4 65.1 57.2 32.5 47.0 38.7 30.3 39.3 34.0 58.9 70.5 61.8
REGION X
BUKIDNON 40.0 234.0 130.5 121.5 205.9 156.9 70.1 215.1 124.1 40.3 160.1 89.6 37.0 122.8 76.0 22.6 115.0 78.1
CAMIGUIN 166.6 173.4 169.5 196.8 215.9 205.2 145.2 172.8 159.1 105.0 125.5 115.5 74.9 85.1 80.0 81.0 86.8 85.8
LANAO DEL NORTE 49.5 153.4 105.4 117.2 139.7 126.5 65.4 73.6 70.2 37.1 52.1 45.4 35.7 48.7 41.1 27.0 92.1 64.1
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 115.4 228.1 159.1 131.5 160.6 146.4 70.4 78.2 74.4 43.5 46.9 44.7 32.1 40.3 35.7 64.4 73.8 67.4
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 39.5 175.9 116.2 111.9 238.4 166.8 70.5 250.9 140.3 34.5 186.4 96.4 32.5 109.4 64.4 22.3 94.8 62.7
REGION XI
DAVAO DE ORO 24.1 230.7 124.4 140.7 320.1 219.2 150.0 464.2 285.6 73.8 343.1 191.2 61.2 232.3 138.2 86.8 181.8 116.9
DAVAO CITY 126.6 267.0 202.3 133.3 167.1 144.1 115.2 169.2 135.8 80.1 135.0 102.3 100.5 128.1 116.1 86.5 195.4 144.3
DAVAO DEL NORTE 70.5 267.4 201.2 139.2 247.9 180.3 136.6 327.6 199.7 85.0 239.3 149.8 87.6 170.9 129.8 80.1 184.7 99.6
DAVAO DEL SUR 93.6 156.5 136.6 115.2 135.5 126.6 97.3 133.2 111.2 47.6 86.6 67.1 61.9 111.4 85.0 80.4 195.4 139.2
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 72.9 162.2 125.8 112.8 159.4 132.4 97.0 138.2 123.3 43.5 87.8 63.4 57.1 82.5 68.7 68.7 137.4 95.3
DAVAO ORIENTAL 32.9 248.4 142.9 155.4 339.9 221.9 173.7 511.1 299.0 93.2 370.0 185.2 82.2 248.5 133.1 111.0 198.2 123.7
REGION XII
SOUTH COTABATO 33.5 133.7 95.2 91.6 122.3 109.2 77.9 100.7 86.1 24.0 64.2 47.5 37.0 70.0 55.4 47.2 100.7 77.3
COTABATO 125.8 215.2 151.0 115.3 156.6 129.3 74.3 136.5 94.7 58.8 109.0 73.4 57.9 109.2 80.7 94.2 177.1 112.9
SARANGANI 35.9 149.1 92.0 99.3 146.8 119.1 80.3 123.9 102.0 29.4 74.0 50.8 41.5 69.9 56.2 48.3 102.1 74.9
SULTAN KUDARAT 104.7 151.2 131.8 110.2 125.5 119.3 70.9 102.4 80.5 52.2 67.7 62.0 59.6 82.1 64.2 88.3 130.4 98.0
REGION XIII
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 163.6 264.3 180.9 208.0 346.7 267.8 216.2 427.4 321.0 163.5 290.4 237.7 95.5 190.2 135.2 78.6 127.4 90.5
AGUSAN DEL SUR 140.6 384.2 198.6 194.3 437.0 282.8 197.1 639.5 373.8 145.4 503.2 282.6 95.1 336.7 181.1 83.6 311.3 135.6
DINAGAT ISLANDS 193.8 338.1 258.3 384.9 411.1 399.6 338.6 461.3 406.3 171.7 298.7 238.4 137.9 222.2 182.1 82.3 155.4 125.4
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 193.6 367.6 273.4 330.9 418.0 379.4 378.6 487.3 445.2 255.6 319.9 291.2 176.5 243.9 204.6 102.4 165.3 132.0
SURIGAO DEL SUR 178.9 389.9 239.6 317.7 458.0 362.5 410.4 672.1 514.4 285.5 533.5 369.6 173.8 359.3 236.0 92.3 316.0 167.4
BARMM
BASILAN 40.2 108.8 69.9 87.1 101.1 92.2 37.5 46.1 43.0 26.4 33.2 30.2 25.5 32.9 29.0 47.7 65.6 59.9
MAGUINDANAO 111.1 141.5 129.5 109.2 126.7 118.0 69.5 95.3 76.4 55.1 70.8 62.8 50.4 78.9 62.0 77.4 105.0 100.0
LANAO DEL SUR 89.0 145.3 125.2 112.9 136.8 126.1 65.6 93.2 72.3 41.5 72.1 53.4 40.0 73.4 51.5 47.1 100.6 84.2
SULU 92.9 114.4 108.4 93.4 109.7 103.8 34.8 48.7 42.5 22.2 37.3 32.3 23.3 40.3 34.3 41.1 67.0 60.3
TAWI-TAWI 88.5 114.4 102.7 96.5 116.2 101.2 26.7 48.2 41.8 18.4 38.2 29.7 18.1 41.3 32.5 33.0 63.9 57.2
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams
in (mm) and (%N) FOR NOVEMBER 2023- APRIL 2024
and Lakes
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (NOV 2023 - APR 2024)
Pantabangan San Roque
NAME Angat WS La Mesa WS Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat WS Malinao WS
WS Cascade WS
MIN 113.1 5.0 4.0 39.5 39.5 118.0 37.7 10.0
MAX 418.5 47.1 120.9 152.2 117.7 137.1 214.8 87.9
NOVEMBER MEAN 298.8 24.1 75.7 102.2 88.6 130.9 94.0 37.2
%NORMAL 69.2 12.0 36.4 53.4 30.9 57.8 26.3 20.7
MIN 169.4 139.1 276.3 111.9 69.6 183.7 82.8 33.2
MAX 274.4 165.3 375.6 144.4 171.2 203.9 187.0 78.1
DECEMBER MEAN 228.2 150.8 312.3 128.4 107.5 194.4 128.8 55.3
%NORMAL 80.2 83.8 81.8 77.3 61.1 82.4 59.6 57.6
MIN 26.8 19.4 97.5 65.4 15.5 111.7 38.3 8.3
MAX 126.4 30.2 197.2 97.0 70.7 136.9 104.4 25.0
JANUARY MEAN 84.3 24.6 128.3 74.7 34.9 125.3 65.6 15.8
%NORMAL 67.3 46.4 83.9 65.7 54.5 60.7 49.3 43.2
MIN 3.6 3.3 26.7 34.5 6.7 65.8 23.0 2.1
MAX 127.2 8.2 60.7 63.3 40.0 82.3 77.6 12.4
FEBRUARY MEAN 70.3 5.8 35.8 49.5 17.4 74.8 44.9 7.1
%NORMAL 67.6 20.4 36.7 54.6 21.9 51.1 26.3 11.5
MIN 5.2 5.4 28.6 32.5 18.8 53.4 32.4 12.4
MAX 103.6 8.9 93.3 60.9 55.8 61.9 90.1 28.7
MARCH MEAN 56.6 7.2 45.8 47.7 31.9 57.7 56.1 22.8
%NORMAL 62.6 18.8 56.4 55.9 37.9 52.8 42.3 32.9
MIN 26.0 22.3 34.1 22.3 42.9 43.3 45.7 40.0
MAX 140.6 27.9 70.9 97.7 80.5 53.5 132.9 83.4
APRIL MEAN 67.3 24.9 26.7 64.3 63.1 50.2 81.3 65.5
%NORMAL 73.8 68.9 67.0 55.4 65.8 54.3 62.7 66.1
FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR NOVEMBER 2023 – APRIL 2024
NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL
SITES
MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 43.8 26.1 55.5 57.5 14.9 43.9 6.5 12.0 24.8 35.1 72.3 69.5
ANGATDAM 30.3 17.1 170.2 82.4 26.5 45.2 3.2 14.8 4.7 14.8 25.8 66.7
APUNAN 62.3 39.9 64.7 58.4 18.2 46.4 8.7 15.1 27.2 36.6 75.9 72.6
BADAYAN 83.8 49.1 65.2 58.4 15.2 46.3 7.3 15.7 24.9 34.4 79.4 76.4
BINGADAM 28.8 13.4 51.4 57.2 13.7 41.9 5.7 9.9 21.1 32.0 64.8 64.1
BOBOK 52.5 23.0 65.8 58.1 19.1 45.5 9.0 13.4 26.2 35.1 68.4 66.1
BUNGA 69.2 16.4 106.2 58.9 44.8 46.2 26.9 17.3 38.1 35.4 57.1 57.3
BUYOC 80.5 32.4 108.7 61.7 31.9 58.7 14.1 24.2 27.8 38.1 58.9 65.7
DANTOR 82.5 31.5 98.6 61.2 23.3 55.0 9.0 21.5 20.9 33.7 58.6 64.3
DUMAYUP 98.2 35.1 135.4 63.4 46.8 61.6 22.7 27.6 37.5 42.2 61.5 71.1
HALONG 83.9 34.2 87.2 60.2 21.2 51.9 9.1 19.6 23.0 33.9 63.9 66.0
IPODAM 7.2 20.6 135.6 81.6 13.7 44.9 4.8 18.4 0.6 16.9 13.3 72.4
MAGATDAM 77.8 34.9 136.0 64.9 37.3 66.2 12.9 28.8 24.3 40.1 49.1 70.4
MAPUTI 428.3 95.1 236.8 77.8 107.9 72.9 126.4 103.0 98.7 93.6 83.5 82.2
MARIKIT 149.1 38.8 178.4 61.6 97.8 53.5 71.1 38.9 83.6 52.3 120.9 71.1
MATULID 120.1 34.9 228.5 80.1 69.7 65.9 29.8 44.6 22.3 42.5 41.4 58.3
NORZAGARAY 1.0 16.4 133.4 81.4 13.3 46.2 1.5 21.3 0.9 19.2 12.7 76.4
PADALIS 96.8 28.1 144.5 60.3 71.7 50.4 49.4 28.3 61.5 44.1 89.1 65.4
PANTABANGAN DAM 72.7 22.8 104.9 58.0 54.2 43.8 37.0 20.8 45.3 37.5 62.5 54.6
SANROQUEDAM 1.0 1.0 41.9 57.2 11.7 36.7 4.2 5.0 12.6 23.6 40.4 56.4
STODOMINGO 103.8 31.6 114.8 61.0 41.7 54.6 22.3 22.3 37.9 39.8 64.0 64.6
TALAGUIO 114.9 40.5 188.9 86.5 48.0 68.2 22.4 55.5 21.7 48.2 48.9 84.3
UMIRAY 295.1 72.8 301.0 80.7 122.8 71.5 87.3 64.4 71.4 62.9 68.4 52.7
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR NOVEMBER 2023 – JANUARY 2024

NOVEMBER 2023 DECEMBER 2023 JANUARY 2024

LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 0.9 99.3 61.4 23.2 20.4 75.0 51.5 57.9 0.7 15.5 6.2 33.9
Abulug RB 59.2 111.1 93.9 32.6 63.1 148.9 101.7 62.1 12.4 75.9 39.3 53.2
Agno RB 10.0 97.7 40.7 18.0 20.8 84.4 38.2 56.8 1.5 28.5 7.2 33.6
Bicol RB 4.0 248.2 102.7 38.2 276.3 493.5 334.8 82.4 97.5 196.6 134.8 82.1
Bued RB 0.5 18.5 0.6 0.7 21.5 39.8 30.6 57.6 1.2 10.6 5.6 34.2
Cagayan RB 38.6 285.7 109.8 36.4 63.6 390.9 152.5 64.5 6.7 175.2 54.0 59.2
Laoag RB 3.7 73.8 31.8 16.0 26.3 81.5 47.1 55.0 1.9 30.6 12.5 35.8
Pampanga RB 68.7 292.4 114.5 34.7 30.5 274.0 101.4 64.5 17.5 136.9 32.8 42.5
Pasig-Laguna RB 10.5 291.8 52.3 22.2 77.5 393.1 208.7 82.3 24.5 147.1 49.3 53.2
Sinocalan RB 1.0 21.0 4.2 3.2 21.2 39.0 26.4 57.6 0.2 9.2 2.0 31.0
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 39.5 126.9 73.3 44.4 111.9 139.3 125.1 73.9 66.3 94.4 75.1 61.8
Agusan RB 32.6 338.9 181.3 71.1 177.5 387.8 264.8 85.4 186.5 569.0 343.7 79.5
Buayan-Malungon 33.5 133.0 85.8 52.1 96.6 129.9 116.4 86.7 89.9 124.7 105.8 86.7
Cagayan de Oro 39.5 131.6 83.0 49.0 118.8 147.0 133.4 79.0 71.9 99.7 83.9 64.8
Cotabato RB 69.5 217.4 139.2 64.4 103.1 203.2 132.4 84.3 70.6 213.8 98.4 78.6
Davao RB 130.2 255.2 215.1 92.6 137.9 189.9 155.2 86.2 121.4 198.0 146.2 78.5
Tagoloan River 73.7 143.0 103.7 56.6 144.4 184.5 163.4 83.7 95.4 169.1 131.2 66.8
Tagum-Libuganon 134.9 251.6 194.9 79.8 145.3 278.6 204.8 85.8 152.6 382.4 244.5 77.7
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR FEBRUARY 2024 – APRIL 2024

FEBRUARY 2024 MARCH 2024 APRIL 2024

LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 0.1 6.8 3.0 9.2 0.7 25.3 8.9 16.1 6.4 84.9 38.5 53.5
Abulug RB 5.6 31.4 16.2 25.7 5.8 20.3 11.7 29.1 23.2 51.6 35.6 55.0
Agno RB 1.7 15.6 3.4 10.6 0.5 28.9 11.1 22.2 19.5 84.7 48.4 66.0
Bicol RB 26.7 99.3 43.9 38.7 28.6 89.9 47.6 53.6 10.0 67.3 32.1 64.7
Bued RB 0.2 3.6 1.2 3.0 3.0 15.3 8.6 20.5 36.3 71.5 51.5 69.9
Cagayan RB 3.3 97.9 24.7 27.5 7.1 117.8 34.2 37.7 23.3 164.3 58.4 66.3
Laoag RB 0.4 12.4 4.4 7.7 0.3 9.2 3.6 9.1 1.8 29.4 14.6 28.3
Pampanga RB 9.9 127.2 24.0 31.2 7.4 113.4 27.4 35.0 14.8 182.2 43.0 59.6
Pasig-Laguna RB 10.0 84.9 22.3 28.2 0.2 75.2 19.8 24.8 15.7 90.8 36.4 66.0
Sinocalan RB 0.1 2.4 0.1 2.0 1.9 9.1 3.6 15.7 34.6 64.7 50.3 78.1
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 34.5 53.6 42.4 48.9 32.5 52.0 39.9 55.9 22.3 75.8 40.6 45.1
Agusan RB 122.3 441.4 256.9 84.5 86.0 291.8 164.8 72.2 78.6 273.9 121.6 74.5
Buayan-Malungon 24.0 63.8 47.7 53.2 37.0 76.3 59.8 69.5 47.2 117.8 76.4 83.5
Cagayan de Oro 37.3 69.5 52.7 57.3 35.0 65.2 49.1 59.6 22.3 81.5 49.3 48.8
Cotabato RB 40.4 162.1 73.8 65.8 49.7 124.6 73.8 64.0 59.0 165.6 98.2 71.4
Davao RB 91.1 151.8 113.9 78.6 106.7 124.5 116.3 79.9 89.6 186.0 117.2 76.3
Tagoloan River 62.9 122.5 89.4 67.1 51.4 86.1 65.2 63.1 40.6 82.6 62.6 55.1
Tagum-Libuganon 113.7 282.3 180.8 78.4 110.6 195.0 141.6 72.2 80.1 136.5 94.2 75.7
DRY DAY FORECAST

NOVEMBER 2023 – APRIL 2024

➢ Dry day is defined as a day

with less than 1 mm of
rainfall is observed.
NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
PROVINCE NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
DRY DAY* FORECAST CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 23 24 25 23 24 22 26 26 27 24 27 25 3 2 2 1 3 3
BENGUET 22 22 24 22 23 19 25 25 26 23 25 21 3 3 2 1 2 2
IFUGAO 20 20 23 21 22 19 25 23 25 22 24 21 5 3 2 1 2 2
KALINGA 21 22 25 22 24 22 26 24 26 24 26 24 5 2 1 2 2 2
APAYAO 21 22 24 22 26 24 25 25 25 24 27 25 4 3 1 2 1 1
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 20 21 24 22 23 20 25 24 26 23 25 22 5 3 2 1 2 2
NOVEMBER 2023 – APRIL 2024 REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 24 25 26 23 27 25 27 28 27 25 28 26 3 3 1 2 1 1
ILOCOS SUR 23 24 25 23 23 21 26 25 26 24 26 24 3 1 1 1 3 3
LA UNION 23 24 25 23 23 20 25 26 26 24 26 22 2 2 1 1 3 2
PANGASINAN 25 26 26 24 25 23 26 27 27 24 27 24 1 1 1 0 2 1
REGION II
BATANES 15 16 15 18 21 21 18 17 17 20 23 22 3 1 2 2 2 1
CAGAYAN 18 18 21 21 24 23 23 21 23 23 26 24 5 3 2 2 2 1
ISABELA 17 17 20 18 21 20 23 19 23 20 22 21 6 2 3 2 1 1
DRY DAY FORECAST ANOMALY NUEVA VIZCAYA 19 20 22 20 21 17 24 22 24 21 23 19 5 2 2 1 2 2
QUIRINO 16 17 18 17 18 16 22 19 20 18 20 18 6 2 2 1 2 2
Red shade – increased number REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 25 26 25 24 26 24 28 28 28 26 27 26 3 2 3 2 1 2
of dry days BULACAN 19 21 23 21 22 22 25 24 24 24 25 23 6 3 1 3 3 1
NUEVA ECIJA 21 22 24 21 24 21 25 24 25 23 25 23 4 2 1 2 1 2
PAMPANGA 22 24 25 22 24 22 25 26 27 24 26 23 3 2 2 2 2 1
Blue shade – less than the usual TARLAC 23 25 25 22 25 23 25 26 27 24 27 23 2 1 2 2 2 0
number of dry days, i.e., more ZAMBALES 24 25 25 23 25 23 25 26 27 24 27 25 1 1 2 1 2 2
AURORA 15 15 16 16 17 15 20 17 18 17 19 17 5 2 2 1 2 2
days with rain NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 19 21 24 22 24 22 24 23 25 24 25 23 5 2 1 2 1 1
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 19 20 22 21 24 22 22 22 24 24 26 24 3 2 2 3 2 2
CAVITE 23 24 25 24 26 24 27 26 26 27 27 26 4 2 1 3 1 2
* Dry day is defined as a day LAGUNA 15 16 20 19 22 21 18 17 22 21 24 22 3 1 2 2 2 1
with less than 1 mm of RIZAL
QUEZON
15
11
17
11
21
14
19
15
21
18
21
19
21
15
19
11
23
16
22
18
23
21
21
21
6
4
2
0
2
2
3
3
2
3
0
2
rainfall is observed. REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 12 11 15 16 19 19 17 12 17 19 21 21 5 1 2 3 2 2
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 20 21 22 21 24 23 23 23 23 24 26 24 3 2 1 3 2 1
ORIENTAL MINDORO 17 18 20 18 22 21 21 19 21 22 24 23 4 1 1 4 2 2
ROMBLON 16 16 19 18 21 21 21 17 21 20 24 22 5 1 2 2 3 1
PALAWAN 20 22 24 23 25 22 24 24 26 25 27 25 4 2 2 2 2 3
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 11 11 14 14 16 16 13 12 14 18 19 18 2 1 0 4 3 2
CAMARINES NORTE 10 10 13 14 17 20 12 9 13 17 21 21 2 -1 0 3 4 1
CAMARINES SUR 11 11 14 15 17 18 12 11 15 18 20 19 1 0 1 3 3 1
CATANDUANES 11 12 16 16 17 16 14 12 17 20 21 18 3 0 1 4 4 2
MASBATE 16 15 18 18 21 22 17 17 19 20 25 24 1 2 1 2 4 2
SORSOGON 12 12 14 15 16 17 14 13 14 18 20 19 2 1 0 3 4 2
NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
PROVINCE NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)

DRY DAY* FORECAST AKLAN

ANTIQUE
18
20
19
21
21
23
20
21
22
23
21
22
21
23
19
22
22
24
22
22
25
25
23
24
3
3
0
1
1
1
2
1
3
2
2
2
CAPIZ 17 18 20 20 22 21 19 19 21 21 26 23 2 1 1 1 4 2
GUIMARAS 20 21 23 21 23 22 22 22 24 22 25 24 2 1 1 1 2 2
ILOILO 19 20 22 20 23 22 21 21 23 21 25 24 2 1 1 1 2 2
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 20 20 22 20 23 23 22 21 23 22 25 25 2 1 1 2 2 2
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)

NOVEMBER 2023 – APRIL 2024 NEGROS ORIENTAL

BOHOL
20
17
20
17
21
18
20
18
23
21
23
20
24
19
21
18
22
19
22
20
26
23
25
21
4
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
2
2
1
CEBU 18 18 20 19 22 22 21 19 21 21 25 24 3 1 1 2 3 2
SIQUIJOR 18 18 19 19 21 21 21 19 20 21 25 22 3 1 1 2 4 1
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 15 14 17 16 19 19 18 16 18 20 23 21 3 2 1 4 4 2
EASTERN SAMAR 9 8 10 10 14 13 11 8 11 13 16 14 2 0 1 3 2 1
LEYTE 14 13 15 15 19 18 18 14 17 19 22 21 4 1 2 4 3 3
NORTHERN SAMAR 10 10 11 13 15 16 13 10 12 16 18 17 3 0 1 3 3 1
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 11 11 13 13 16 15 14 12 13 16 18 16 3 1 0 3 2 1
DRY DAY FORECAST ANOMALY SOUTHERN LEYTE 14 13 14 14 18 19 17 13 15 17 21 20 3 0 1 3 3 1
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 16 17 19 18 21 20 19 18 21 22 25 22 3 1 2 4 4 2
Red shade – increased number ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 16 17 19 18 20 19 19 19 21 21 24 21 3 2 2 3 4 2
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 17 18 19 18 21 20 20 19 21 22 25 22 3 1 2 4 4 2
of dry days REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 16 17 17 17 19 18 19 18 18 20 23 20 3 1 1 3 4 2
CAMIGUIN 18 18 18 18 21 21 21 19 18 20 23 21 3 1 0 2 2 0
Blue shade – less than the usual LANAO DEL NORTE 17 18 19 18 20 19 20 19 20 20 23 20 3 1 1 2 3 1
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 16 16 18 17 20 19 18 17 19 20 23 20 2 1 1 3 3 1
number of dry days, i.e., more MISAMIS ORIENTAL 18 19 18 18 21 20 22 19 19 21 24 21 4 0 1 3 3 1
days with rain REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
DAVAO DE ORO 15 16 16 16 18 17 18 17 17 19 21 18 3 1 1 3 3 1
DAVAO CITY 17 19 19 19 21 19 21 20 20 22 24 20 4 1 1 3 3 1
DAVAO DEL NORTE 16 17 17 17 19 18 19 18 19 21 23 19 3 1 2 4 4 1
DAVAO DEL SUR 19 21 21 20 23 20 23 21 22 23 26 22 4 0 1 3 3 2
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 21 22 22 21 24 22 24 23 23 23 27 23 3 1 1 2 3 1
* Dry day is defined as a day DAVAO ORIENTAL 15 17 16 16 18 17 18 18 17 18 21 18 3 1 1 2 3 1

with less than 1 mm of REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

SOUTH COTABATO 20 21 22 20 23 21 24 21 23 22 26 22 4 0 1 2 3 1
rainfall is observed. COTABATO
SARANGANI
17
21
19
22
20
22
18
21
20
24
18
22
21
25
19
22
21
23
20
23
23
27
20
23
4
4
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
2
1
SULTAN KUDARAT 18 20 21 19 21 19 22 20 22 20 24 21 4 0 1 1 3 2
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 14 14 14 14 17 18 17 14 15 17 20 20 3 0 1 3 3 2
AGUSAN DEL SUR 13 14 14 13 16 16 16 13 15 17 19 18 3 -1 1 4 3 2
DINAGAT ISLANDS 10 8 10 10 13 14 13 9 11 13 17 16 3 1 1 3 4 2
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 11 9 10 10 13 14 13 9 11 12 16 16 2 0 1 2 3 2
SURIGAO DEL SUR 11 10 10 9 12 14 13 9 11 12 15 15 2 -1 1 3 3 1
ARMM
BASILAN 20 23 24 21 23 21 26 25 26 24 26 23 6 2 2 3 3 2
MAGUINDANAO 17 19 20 18 20 18 21 19 21 19 22 19 4 0 1 1 2 1
LANAO DEL SUR 17 19 19 17 20 18 21 19 20 19 22 20 4 0 1 2 2 2
SULU 22 25 25 23 24 21 28 27 27 25 26 23 6 2 2 2 2 2
OUTLOOK For November 2023 –
April 2024

PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than or = 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

Greater than 120 above normal

OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of November 2023
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
(18) (15) NONE
ABRA, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA, APAYAO,
ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, CAGAYAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO,
PANGASINAN, ISABELA, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, BATANGAS, CAVITE,
LUZON PAMPANGA, TARLAC, AURORA, LAGUNA, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO,
METRO MANILA, RIZAL, QUEZON, ORIENTAL MINDORO, PALAWAN,
MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES, SORSOGON
(13) (1) NONE
ANTIQUE, ILOILO, NEGROS GUIMARAS
OCCIDENTAL, NEGROS ORIENTAL,
BOHOL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN,
VISAYAS EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE,
NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN
LEYTE
(25) NONE (1)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, LANAO DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR,
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY,
BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS
OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL,
DAVAO DE ORO,
DAVAO DEL SUR, DAVAO
MINDANAO OCCIDENTAL, DAVAO ORIENTAL,
SOUTH COTABATO, COTABATO,
SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT,
AGUSAN DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL
SUR, DINAGAT ISLANDS, SURIGAO
DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR,
BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, LANAO
DEL SUR, SULU, TAWI-TAWI

Issued: 25 October 2023 TOTAL 56 16 1

OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of December 2023
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
(4) (19) (4)
ILOCOS NORTE ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA, BATANGAS
BATAAN APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, CAVITE
ZAMBALES ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
LUZON SPRATLY ISLANDS CAGAYAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, ORIENTAL MINDORO
QUIRINO, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA,
PAMPANGA, TARLAC, AURORA,
PALAWAN

(1) (3) NONE

AKLAN ANTIQUE
VISAYAS NEGROS ORIENTAL
SIQUIJOR

NONE (7) (1)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE LANAO DEL NORTE
CAMIGUIN
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MINDANAO MISAMIS ORIENTAL
LANAO DEL SUR
SULU
TAWI-TAWI

TOTAL 5 29 5

Issued: 25 October 2023

OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of January 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
NONE (13) (15)
IFUGAO ABRA
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE BENGUET
ILOCOS NORTE KALINGA
ILOCOS SUR APAYAO
LA UNION PANGASINAN
ISABELA CAGAYAN
BATAAN NUEVA VIZCAYA
LUZON BULACAN QUIRINO
PAMPANGA NUEVA ECIJA
ZAMBALES TARLAC
AURORA BATANGAS
PALAWAN CAVITE
SPRATLY ISLANDS OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
ORIENTAL MINDORO

NONE (5) NONE

AKLAN
ANTIQUE
VISAYAS NEGROS ORIENTAL
SIQUIJOR

NONE (7) (1)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE LANAO DEL NORTE
CAMIGUIN
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MINDANAO MISAMIS ORIENTAL
LANAO DEL SUR
SULU
TAWI-TAWI

TOTAL 0 24 16

Issued: 25 October 2023

OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of February 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
(8) (1) (26)
METRO MANILA BULACAN ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
LAGUNA APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS
RIZAL NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
QUEZON PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA,
LUZON ROMBLON NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN,
CAMARINES NORTE NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC,
CAMARINES SUR ZAMBALES, AURORA, BATANGAS, CAVITE,
CATANDUANES OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, PALAWAN, SPRATLY ISLANDS
(8) (5) (3)
BOHOL AKLAN ANTIQUE
CEBU CAPIZ NEGROS ORIENTAL
BILIRAN GUIMARAS SIQUIJOR
EASTERN SAMAR ILOILO
VISAYAS LEYTE NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE

(8) NONE (8)

ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY CAMIGUIN
BUKIDNON LANAO DEL NORTE
DAVAO DE ORO MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MINDANAO DAVAO DEL NORTE MISAMIS ORIENTAL
DINAGAT ISLANDS LANAO DEL SUR
SURIGAO DEL NORTE SULU
BASILAN TAWI-TAWI

TOTAL 24 6 37

Issued: 25 October 2023

OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of March 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
(3) (9) (27)
MARINDUQUE METRO MANILA ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
ALBAY LAGUNA APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS
SORSOGON RIZAL NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
QUEZON PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA,
ROMBLON NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN,
LUZON CAMARINES NORTE BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
CAMARINES SUR TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA,
CATANDUANES BATANGAS, CAVITE, OCCIDENTAL
MASBATE MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO,
PALAWAN, SPRATLY ISLANDS

NONE (12) (4)

CAPIZ, GUIMARAS, ILOILO, NEGROS AKLAN
OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, ANTIQUE
BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NEGROS ORIENTAL
VISAYAS NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR SIQUIJOR
(WESTERN SAMAR),
SOUTHERN LEYTE

(8) (8) (8)

DAVAO DEL SUR ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY CAMIGUIN
DAVAO ORIENTAL BUKIDNON LANAO DEL NORTE
SOUTH COTABATO DAVAO DE ORO MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MINDANAO COTABATO DAVAO DEL NORTE MISAMIS ORIENTAL
SARANGANI DINAGAT ISLANDS LANAO DEL SUR
SULTAN KUDARAT SURIGAO DEL NORTE SULU
MAGUINDANAO BASILAN TAWI-TAWI

11 29 39
Issued: 25TOTAL
October 2023
OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of April 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
NONE (8) (31)
QUEZON ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
MARINDUQUE APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS
ALBAY NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
CAMARINES NORTE PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA,
CAMARINES SUR NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN,
LUZON CATANDUANES BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
MASBATE TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO
SORSOGON MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA,
RIZAL, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN,
SPRATLY ISLANDS
NONE (9) (7)
CAPIZ, BOHOL, CEBU, BILIRAN, AKLAN, ANTIQUE, GUIMARAS, ILOILO,
EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, NEGROS ORIENTAL
VISAYAS NORTHERN SAMAR SIQUIJOR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE

(3) (11) (8)

AGUSAN DEL NORTE ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
AGUSAN DEL SUR ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY CAMIGUIN
SURIGAO DEL SUR BUKIDNON LANAO DEL NORTE
DAVAO DEL NORTE MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
SOUTH COTABATO MISAMIS ORIENTAL
MINDANAO COTABATO LANAO DEL SUR
SULTAN KUDARAT SULU
DINAGAT ISLANDS TAWI-TAWI
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
BASILAN
MAGUINDANAO

TOTAL 3 28 46

Issued: 25 October 2023

Drought Severity
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) – widely used index to characterize meteorological drought on a
range of timescales. https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/standardized-precipitation-index-spi#:~:text=The%20Standardized%20Precipitation%20Index%20(SPI,to%20groundwater%20and%20reservoir%20storage

Basic Assumptions:
Short timescale (i.e., 3- 6 months), the SPI is closely related to soil moisture
Longer timescale (i.e., more than 6, 9,12 months) SPI can be related to groundwater or reservoir storage

WMO
MONTHLY MEAN Warmer Average
Average

TEMPERATURE FORECAST
(NOVEMBER 2023 – APRIL 2024) Warmer Warmer

Warmer
Slightly warmer Average
Warmer
Slightly warmer slightly cooler

Slightly warmer
cooler
cooler

Slightly warmer
Average
Warmer Average
slightly cooler
Average
Warmer Warmer Average
Warmer

Warmer Slightly warmer

Average Slightly warmer

slightly cooler

slightly cooler

Average Average
Slightly warmer

Slightly warmer

warmer
Slightly warmer Average

cooler cooler
Slightly warmer Slightly warmer
Average cooler

Slightly warmer

slightly cooler
Slightly cooler slightly cooler
Average Average
warmer
warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer

Average
Average
Slightly cooler slightly cooler
FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE
Updated : 18 October 2023
Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24
TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 28.1 35.0 26.8 34.5 26.6 35.4 27.9 35.8 28.6 38.0 29.6 39.7
Lowlands Luzon 28.0 36.5 27.0 35.8 26.1 35.7 26.4 36.6 28.8 37.2 30.5 39.5
Mountainous Luzon 25.2 27.2 25.4 27.2 24.8 28.3 25.5 27.2 26.3 28.0 27.5 30.1
Metro Manila 33.2 36.0 33.3 34.7 31.5 34.6 32.7 35.1 34.6 36.2 36.0 38.1
Lowlands Visayas 31.5 37.9 31.6 35.0 30.3 34.5 30.6 35.8 30.7 36.7 32.4 37.6
Lowlands Mindanao 31.8 37.3 32.5 36.3 31.9 37.0 31.5 37.5 31.2 38.5 32.5 39.4
Mountainous Mindanao 32.3 34.0 32.9 33.6 32.0 33.8 32.5 35.5 34.0 35.5 34.7 36.4

Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 17.0 24.0 14.2 22.2 12.9 20.0 12.9 21.7 14.7 22.4 15.5 24.3
Lowlands Luzon 17.1 25.2 17.0 25.2 15.0 25.1 15.0 25.3 16.5 25.8 16.9 26.2
Mountainous Luzon 12.0 14.4 11.5 13.0 9.4 11.6 9.4 12.0 11.4 14.7 12.2 15.0
Metro Manila 20.7 24.7 20.1 23.9 18.1 23.7 18.0 23.1 19.5 24.3 20.1 25.6
Lowlands Visayas 19.0 25.2 20.5 25.1 20.0 24.7 18.5 24.4 18.7 25.1 20.0 25.9
Lowlands Mindanao 19.7 23.9 19.1 23.6 18.7 23.3 17.6 23.8 18.0 23.9 20.4 24.4
Mountainous Mindanao 15.0 18.0 14.0 16.8 13.3 16.3 11.9 15.5 13.7 16.3 15.0 17.2
Tropical Cyclone Tracks Climatology with actual tracks from 1948-2015

NOVEMBER FEBRUARY
1 or 2 0 or 1
2023 2024
DECEMBER MARCH
1 or 2 0 or 1
2023 2024
JANUARY APRIL
0 or 1 0 or 1
2024 2024

2-5 TCs expected

SUMMARY
ENSO Alert
El Niño Advisory #4
System Status
➢ Moderate El Niño continues to persist in the tropical Pacific and is
predicted to become strong in the coming months.
Forecast Rainfall Conditions:
NOVEMBER 2023 ➢ generally way below – below normal in most parts of the country;
➢ very high probability for below normal.

➢ generally below normal in most parts of the Luzon while most of Visayas and
DECEMBER 2023 Mindanao are likely to receive near normal rainfall;
➢ 40-45% probability for below normal in most parts of the country.

➢ generally way below to below normal in most parts of the country except for
JANUARY 2024 some areas in Luzon and Mindanao where near normal rainfall is expected;
➢ 40-50% probability for below normal in most parts of the country.
SUMMARY
Forecast Rainfall:
➢ generally way below to below normal in most parts of the country is expected;
FEB – MAR 2024
➢ high probability for below normal in most parts of the country.
➢ generally below normal in most parts of the country with patches of near normal rainfall is
APRIL 2024 expected;
➢ 40-45% probability for near normal in most parts of the country.
➢ Below average to warmer than average surface air temperatures are expected throughout the
Forecast
country during the forecast period.
Temperature ➢ Cold temperature surges are expected to occur during the Northeast monsoon season.
➢ 2 – 5 tropical cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the Philippine Area of
Tropical Cyclone
Responsibility (PAR) from November 2023 – April 2024.
Meteorological Dry Spell/Drought Outlook:
End of January ➢ 29% of the country potential for dry spell (24 provinces);
2024 ➢ 19% potential for drought (16 provinces).

➢ 33% potential for dry spell (28 provinces);

End of April 2024
➢ 55% of the country potential for drought (46 provinces).

➢ 3-month SPI suggests that most parts of the country will likely experience
Drought Severity
moderately dry conditions during FMA 2024 season.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the
ongoing El Niño and updates/advisories
shall be issued as appropriate.

Tentative schedule of

166th CF:
22 November 2023
www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

www.facebook.com/pagasa.dost.gov.ph

@dost_pagasa

Thank you for

TRUNKLINE: (02) 8284- 0800
EXTENSIONS
TYPHOON: 4801

listening!
FLOOD: 4855
CLIMATE: 4920 or 4921
MEDIA: 4865