Pre Feasibility Study ISWMP Janakpur Package
Pre Feasibility Study ISWMP Janakpur Package
Pre Feasibility Study ISWMP Janakpur Package
March 2019
New Baneshwor, Kathmandu, Nepal
Pre-feasibility Study of
INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PROJECT
LIST OF ACRONYMS
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Pre-feasibility Study of
INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PROJECT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Solid waste management is one of the major problem for municipalities in Nepal. Rapid
Urbanization, population growth, modern throwaway culture, reduced landfill capacity
and increasing disposal costs have made this issue a major challenge in recent years. This
is going to be worse in coming years. So, it is important that we recognize this challenge
and prepare ourselves for the future.
Office of the Investment Board (OIBN) is looking forward to attract investment in range of
projects by creating a common platform in upcoming Investment Summit (March, 2019).
One of the key areas identified for the foreign investment is the solid waste management
sector. The main purpose of the study on “integrated solid waste management project
(ISWMP)” is to reflect the current scenario of waste management in proposed locations
which includes Janakpur Sub-Metropolitan City, Chhireshwarnath Municipality, Mithila
Municipality, Bardibas Municipality, & Dhanusadham Municipality of Province 2 and to
document the technical and financial viability of the project. The study included both
primary and secondary data collection methods. Primary data were collected through
visiting each municipalities and speaking to the mayors and other local government
officials whereas the Secondary data was collected from different sources like published
reports, Journal articles and other verifiable and credible internet sources.
This project seems best suited to be developed in a public private partnership (PPP)
model where GON will help in facilitating to get the necessary land for the project which
includes the land for developing transfer stations, processing plant and landfill site. The
developer will then develop all the infrastructure necessary for the smooth
implementation of the project and will operate the project for 20 years which will then
be transferred to GON in good operating condition.
The study looked into the technical and financial aspects of this project and concluded
that the project is technically and financially viable with the total estimated cost to be
around 6.4 Million USD (including interest component during construction period) and
Equity IRR of 16.41%.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF ACRONYMS 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS 4
LIST OF TABLES 6
LIST OF FIGURES 7
SALIENT FEATURES OF THE PROJECT 8
1. BACKGROUND 11
1.1. Introduction 11
1.2. Municipal Solid Waste Management in Nepal 11
1.3. Objectives 12
1.4. Scope of Work 13
1.5. Approach & Methodology 13
2. PROJECT DETAILS 15
2.1. Project Background and Description 15
2.2. Project Features 16
2.3. Overview of the Area 18
2.4. Developing a Business Case 20
Product Mix 20
2.5. Market Assessment 23
2.6. SWOT Analysis 24
2.7. Examination and evaluation of alternatives 25
2.8. Relevant case studies 27
Case Study 1 27
Case Study 2 28
3. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 30
3.1 Pre-Feasibility Approaches & Assumptions 30
3.2 Financial Analysis 34
3.2.1 Basic Financial Results 34
3.2.2 Sensitivity Analysis 35
4. STATUTORY AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK 36
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LIST OF TABLES
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INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PROJECT
LIST OF FIGURES
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1 Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), 2011 (Population projected based on growth rate of Dhanusa District @ 1.4%).
2 ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations (average per capita
waste generation taken 0.317 kg).
3 ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations
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PROJECT COMPONENT/TECHNOLOGY
1 Anaerobic • Mesophilic (35-38 degree Centigrade) / Thermophilic
Digestion (above 50 degree centigrade)
• The methane gas will be compressed, bottled and sold to
local market
• Compost will be formed and sold to the local market as
organic fertilizer
MARKET ASSESSMENT
1 Project Demand • There is a pressure on municipalities to Improve and
Scenario modernize the collection methods and disposal technology.
• There is a need to reduce the pressure on waste disposal
practices and prices
• 80% reduction in the current volume of waste going to landfill
site which will extend the life of landfill site in the future.
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1. BACKGROUND
1.1. Introduction
Solid waste management is a growing problem around the globe. It is becoming one of
the major challenges for local bodies around the world. It is even a greater problem in
countries like Nepal where resources are limited and lack skilled manpower. Majority of
the Local government undertake these tasks internally with their own resources but some
local bodies manages it externally by outsourcing it to the private contractor. It is quite
evident that current population growth coupled with rapid urbanization and lack of
proper landfill facility will make solid waste management a major challenge in coming
days. So, it is important that we recognize this challenge and prepare ourselves for the
future.
ADB carried out a comprehensive study of Municipal Solid Waste of Nepal in 2013. It
analyzed the composition of solid waste in 58 Municipalities. The highest proportion on
Household waste was organic waste with 66% followed by plastics with 12%, and paper
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and paper products with 9%4. The average household per-capita waste generation of
those 58 municipalities of Nepal was 0.317 kg/capita/day5. A recent research
conducted by Engineering Study & Research Centre (P) Ltd. on behalf of Solid Waste
Management Technical Support Centre (SWMTSC) carried out the analysis of household
waste composition of 60 municipalities. The study found out that the organic matter,
which was around 68% of the total fraction, was the highest followed by plastics which
was 10%. Rest of the components are below 10% as Paper and paper products
constitutes 8% and rest of the components like Glass, metal, rubber and leather, textile,
etc. were at or below 6%6. This is represented graphically below by a pie chart (Fig. 1).
Glass 4%
Paper & Paper
Products 8%
1.3. Objectives
Office of the Investment Board (OIBN) is looking forward to attract investment in range of
projects including projects on solid waste management by creating a common platform
4ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations
5 ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations
6 D.R.Pathak, Engineering Study and Research Centre (P) Ltd., 2017, Solid Waste Management Baseline Study of 60 New Municipalities,
Accessed from:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313161363_Solid_Waste_Management_Baseline_Study_of_60_New_Municipalities
7 ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations
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in upcoming Investment Summit (March, 2019). Hence, OIBN has prepared a possible
package for Integrated Solid Waste Management Project (ISWMP) incorporating at least
more than one municipalities based on their daily waste generation and other relevant
criteria. Ultimately, it aims to show case those relevant packages in Investment Summit
(2019) to find the relevant investors for the project. Hence some of the major objective
of the report are as follows:
1. To understand current status of Solid Waste Management in the proposed
Municipalities and their future plans
2. To study the technical and financial viability of the project in the proposed
location
- To collect primary data, secondary data and all the required information for the
development of the said project.
- Carry out the analysis of the gathered information for different aspects such as
technical, financial, social and environmental
- Develop the best suitable investment model i.e. Private or PPP or Blended
Finance
- And provide recommendations based on the findings
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information as per guided by the objectives of the study. The questions were very
objective and open ended.
Secondary data was collected from different sources like published reports, Journal
articles and other verifiable and credible internet sources. Also, Financial, technical,
social and environmental analysis were carried out and a suitable investment model has
been recommended.
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2. PROJECT DETAILS
Current practice of solid waste management in the project area is very basic where the
municipalities or in some cases private contractors are collecting the waste and dumping
it along the river banks, low lying areas and other open spaces which possesses many
health and environmental risks. So, the idea is to develop an integrated solid waste
management plan where source separation will become an integral part of it.
Respective waste is taken to the transfer station and further segregated into recycling,
non-recycling and organic wastes which will then be processed using different
technology to develop different marketable products like organic fertilizer, cooking gas,
pesticide, etc.
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The way we designed this project is that the potential developer is getting their raw
material (Waste) in excess of 100 tons per day and the cities are within the radius of 50
km. Also, the cities we have chosen are the ones with the high population numbers and
are the growing cities of Nepal which also presents huge growth potential.
8 Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), 2011 (Population projected based on growth rate of Dhanusa District @ 1.35%).
9 ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations (average per capita waste
generation taken 0.317 kg).
10 ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations
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Population
200000 177527
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
73868
80000
60000 47358 50279 50836
40000
20000
0
JANAKPUR CHHIRESHWARNATH MITHILA BARDIBAS DHANUSADHAM
126.77
56.28
15.01 15.94 23.42 16.12
11Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), 2011 (Population projected based on growth rate of Dhanusa District @ 1.4%)
12ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations (average per capita waste generation
taken 0.317 kg)
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71.53
28.15
0.32
O R GAN I C R E U SABL E / R E CY CL ABL E S OTHERS (I NCLUDING
H AZ AR D O U S WAST E )
The total projected population for 2019 for the sub-metropolitan city and all other
municipalities included in this package is 399868. The projected population is based on
2011 census data with the growth rate of 1.35%14.
This project area lacks proper waste management system. So the importance of the
proposed project is immense for the area. The composition of the waste based on the ADB
13ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations (Waste composition is based on the
Janakpur Municipality data)
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report15 published in 2013 shows that the Large portion of wastes are organic in nature
which either needs to be composted or converted into biogas.
15 ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations
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• Source Segregation
• Collection
• Transportation
• Recycling
• Processing
• Disposal
The developer should take responsibility of collection of waste which are separated at
source. The waste will then be transferred to the transfer station and then to the
processing site where the recycling materials are separated and sold to the
manufacturer whereas the organic waste will be turned into the biogas, organic fertilizer
and possibly pest repellent. Rest of the waste which can’t be either recycled or
processed are sent to the sanitary landfill site. Developer is only allowed to take maximum
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of 20% of collected waste to the landfill site as rest of the waste should be converted into
some sort of energy forms as mentioned above.
This project is going to be developed in a public private partnership (PPP) model. The
main objective of the ISWM-PPP is to promote sustainable, self-supporting partnerships
between micro and small enterprise and local authorities who, over time, improve lives
and livelihood of poor people in cities and municipalities of low-income countries. So for
this project the GON will facilitate in providing all the necessary land for the project
including the land for developing transfer station, processing plant and landfill site and
the developer will develop all the necessary infrastructure necessary for the smooth
delivery of all the project components mentioned above. The developer will own and
operate the project for 20 years and then transfer the project to the GON in good
operating condition.
On the basis of various factors such as overall level of waste management, composition
of waste, calorific value of waste, suitable quantities of waste, transportation time and
distance to the main processing plant, availability of land, availability of workers and
capacity, existing policies linked to waste management, marketing of product and
incentives for low carbon generation, anaerobic digestion is appropriate technology for
the proposed municipalities.
The proposed plant will be based on anaerobic digestion under Mesophilic (35-38
degree Centigrade) conditions. Similar to standard process of biogas generation, bio-
organic materials will be feed into a digester where anaerobic decomposition of the
organic materials takes place to produce biogas as a main product and compost as
byproduct. The gas thus generated will be then purified to increase the methane
concentration. The enriched biogas is then compressed using a suitable compressor and
filled into cylinders/cascades for distribution. Moreover, the digestate can be used as
organic fertiliser when the feedstock is source separated and non-contaminated organic
waste. The major components and end uses of an anaerobic digestion plant is shown
below;
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According to the report by ADB in association with Australian Government Aid Program,
the land requirement for anaerobic digestion plant is 400–500 m2/ton (includes space for
drying of slurry)16. Hence, for our project to develop the processing site, the tentative land
required ranges from 29,016 m2 – 36,270 m2 (2.9 to 3.6 hectare). We have assumed that
only 80% of the biodegradable waste collected will be fed into the system to produce
biogas.
Based on the ongoing project of Ministry of Urban Development in cooperation with ADB
for project in Nepalgunj Sub Metropolitan City and Birgunj Metropolitan city, the tentative
land requirement for sanitary landfill site (based on comparison of the total waste
generation) for the proposed package is approximately 2.8-3.8 hectare.
16
Towards sustainable municipal organic waste management in south Asia, A guide book for policy makers and
practitioners, ADB, 2011
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17
Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS),2011, Population Monograph (Growth rate @1.35)
18
ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations (average per capita
waste generation taken 0.317 kg)
19
ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations
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ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations
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ADB, 2013, Solid Waste Management in Nepal: Current status and Policy Recommendations
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Composting:
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waste (kept separate from the municipal waste) is allowed to degrade or decompose in
a medium. A good quality nutrient rich and environmental friendly manure is formed
which improves the soil conditions and fertility. Organic matter constitutes high proportion
of the municipal solid waste generated in Nepal. This waste can be recycled by the
method of composting, one of the oldest forms of disposal. It is the natural process of
decomposition of organic waste that yields manure or compost, which is very rich in
nutrients. Composting is a biological process in which micro-organisms, mainly fungi and
bacteria, convert degradable organic waste into humus like substance. This finished
product, which looks like soil, is high in carbon and nitrogen and is an excellent medium
for growing plants. The process of composting ensures the waste that is produced in the
kitchen is not carelessly thrown and left to rot. It recycles the nutrients and returns them
to the soil as nutrients. Apart from being clean, cheap, and safe, composting can
significantly reduce the amount of disposable garbage. The organic fertilizer can be used
instead of chemical fertilizers and is better specially when used for vegetables. It
increases the soil’s ability to hold water and makes the soil easier to cultivate. It helped
the soil retain more of the plant nutrients.
Waste to Energy
The proposed technology is based on waste to biogas which will be treated further to
enhance the methane content followed by its compression and bottling. The other
alternatives could be Waste to Energy (WTE), is a term that is used to describe various
technologies that convert non-recyclable waste into usable forms of energy including
Heat, Fuels and electricity. There are number of processes which convert waste to energy
like gasification, pyrolysis, in-vessel composting, etc. As our technology is based on waste
to biogas its use as a fuel for combustion engines, which convert it to mechanical energy,
powering an electric generator to produce electricity. The design of an electric
generator is similar to the design of an electric motor. Moreover, the compressed
methane gas can be used as fuel in the vehicle.
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Location: Majuwa, Pokhara Lekhnath Metropolitan city, Ward No. 32, Kaski District.
The proposed 45TPD Compressed Biogas Bottling and Fertilizer plant is to produce high
quality Compressed Biogas and Organic Fertilizer. A continuous flow stirred tank reactor
type digester is selected to decompose the organic materials in anaerobic conditions.
The plant shall consume about 45 tonnes of substrate per day including cow/buffaloes
dung, pig manure and poultry litter to generate 1600kg of Compressed Biogas (CBG) and
11000 kgs of organic fertilizer.
The proposed project site is at Majuwa, Pokhara Lekhnath Metropolitan city, Ward No.
32, Kaski District. The site is about 20 km from the Pokhara and about 30 km from Damauli,
about 500m north east along the Prithivi Highway. The developer has leased 15 ropanis
of land for setting up the plant. The proposed site is located in an area which receives
ample sunlight throughout the day. In addition, there are a few households on only one
side of the proposed plant (north western side) and thus this project will have minimal
social impact due to sparse population density.
The developer has partnered with SLPP RE-NEW, a reputed technology provider from
India with 15 years of experience in the field to develop and operate the plant. The
technology provider shall provide Engineering Procurement and Construction (EPC)
service and also be responsible for overall performance of the plant and machineries.
The technology provider shall also train the staffs and operators of the plant to have an
effective transition while handing over the project to the developers.
The primary produce of the plant shall be compressed biogas and other produce would
be organic fertilizers. The compressed biogas shall be supplied to the nearby hotels,
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restaurants, etc. as a substitute of LPG at about 10% reduction of the prevailing rate of
LPG/kg. Similarly, the organic fertilizers shall be supplied to various farms nearby the plant
and also throughout the country.
This project is financially viable as reflected by the key financial indicators. The internal
rate of return of the project is 14.93% and the project payback period is 8 years.
Case Study 2
Project Type: Waste to Energy Project through Anaerobic Digestion (Biogas) Technology
Venture Waste to Energy P. Ltd. (Vw2E) is a private limited company with the aim to
develop waste to energy project through Anaerobic Digestion. One of the major product
of the project is bio-methane gas which they aims to sell it to the domestic and industrial
consumers in Nepal.
The project aims to manage municipal solid waste from Dharan Municipality and use
organic waste as energy source through Anaerobic Digestion. The capacity of the plant
is 30TDP (Ton Per Day) and the project site is located at Panmara , Ward-6 of Dharan Sub
–Metropolitan City of Sunsari District in Province 1.
This project is using the SERI Organic Fuels Technology which is a multi-stage variable
hydraulic and solid retention, microbe incubated Bio-Reaction system. This technology
uses the “microbe incubated Bio-Reactors (MIBR) with stabilized incubation system and
laboratory cultured feed specific microorganisms and related biotechnology and fast
breeder media”. This technology can process any organic feedstock like fruits and
vegetables waste. Not only organic feedstock, it also processes agricultural waste, oil
effluents, poultry and fish remains etc. One of the major advantages of this technology is
that it processes 100% of waste processed.
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The output of this projects are biogas, organic fertilizer, pest repellant and recycling
scraps. The project is technically and financially viable based on their key financial
indicators.
The information provided above are all based on the Detail Project report submitted by
Venture Waste to Energy P. Ltd to Office of Investment Board.
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3. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Total cost of the Project amounted to Dollars 5,659,740 Excluding Interest during
Construction. The Total cost including interest amounted to Dollars 6,406,705.96. Costs
are assumed to occur evenly in construction period. Interest During Construction
12% Civil
Particulars Amount in Structure
Dollars Others
9%
Land - 1%
Civil Structure 565,974
Machinery 5,037,169
Others 56,597
Interest During Construction 746,966
Total Project cost 6,406,706
Machinery
78%
The portion of the interest during construction is capitalize in the individual assets on
proportionate basis.
Capital Structure
The Projects is proposed to be finance in a 70:30 debt equity ratio on the total cost of
the project including Interest during construction (IDC). The requirement of Working
capital would be finance by internal resources itself. Based on the Structure, The total
Investment pattern has been tabulated below:
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The overall Financial Analysis is based on the total generation of the solid waste on the
various Municipalities included in this package. The areas that has been included in
Integrated Solid Waste Management Project (ISWMP), Janakpur Package are listed
below:
Total Waste Collection in Janakpur Package has been calculate to be 126.76 Tons per
day. Based on the information and data, composition of the total Solid waste collection
of Janakpur Package is tabled below:
Collection Efficiency
Based on the various studies conducted by international agencies and prevailing market
tendency, collection of the Solid waste has been assumed as follows
From To Efficiency
0 year 3 year 0%
4 year 13 year 50%
14 year 23 year 60%
Out of the total collected solid waste component, it has been estimated that the
following output could be realized from the project. Details of output quantity has been
computed based on the efficiency as elaborated in table above
The output is assume to increase at the rate of 1.35% per annum, which is based on the
population growth rate.
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The Project is assumed to build in the period of 3 Years. And the total operation period
after the construction period would be 20 Years. The project would be hand over to the
government after the completion of the operation period.
The tax rate for the Project is assume at 25% on profit earned during the year. Further the
loss carryforward has been taken for 12 years in due consonance with the provision of
Income tax Act 2058. Further, the Staff bonus is assume at 10% on taxable income earned
during any year of the operation as required by The Bonus Act.
Also, the rate depreciation and basis of depreciation is in due adherence to the
provisions of the Income tax Act as Follows:
However, 1/3 of the additional Depreciation has not been taken into consideration as
facilitated by income tax Act.
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Followings are the rates of sales of the output generated from Organic & Reusable Solid
wastes collected.
Further, each house hold is charged at the rate of Dollars 0.44 as Monthly Charges. Total
Number of Household in the beginning of the period is 73,200 families. The increase rate
of the number of family is based on the growth rate in Population and Output as
discussed above. The sales inflation rate is assumed to increase at the rate of 3% Per
annum and which would be capped at 180%
The project is estimated to have total operating cost of 7% based on the project initial.
The Operations cost are Inclusive of all staff salary, Vehicle Maintenance but don’t
include Interest cost and depreciation cost component It is further Assumed that the
total operation expense is likely to increase at the rate of 4% With the cap of 200%. As
discussed in earlier Paragraph, the project would be financed by 70% Debt. The Interest
rate that has been taken into the calculation is12% which would be repaid in four equal
installment In the period of 12 Years.
It has been assumed that the overall working capital requirement would be financed by
the equity holders. The working capital has been assumed on following basis.
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Total number of working days has been assumed to be 330 Days and 12 working months.
The total population living in project area of Janakpur Package is 399868 Persons
The project cost for Integrated Solid Waste Management Project (ISWMP), Janakpur
package has taken from desk study report prepared by IBN. It is assume that all the cost
present are in line with current cost structure. It is also assumed that the project
development cost was prepared based on the district rates and prevailing marked rates.
The total Cost of the project is 6,406,705.96 Dollars of Which 746,965.64 Dollars is interest
Component during Construction. The total project excluding Working capital has been
financed by 70% debt and remaining by Equity.
In analysis of the Pre-feasibility of the project, projections are made using different
techniques. Based on the analysis, Project Net Present Value (NPV) was calculated to
1,083,689.70 Dollars.
Also, the Project IRR is calculated to be 14.81% which exceed the required rate of return
of the project. Equity IRR of the Project is at 16.41%. Project IRR & Equity IRR substantiate
the feasibility of the Project. Project Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) is 1.19 Times whereas Equity
BCR is 1.56 Times.
The Project Payback Period & Equity Payback Period are 6.51 years and 13.12 years
respectively. Considering the specific nature of business and overall industry, the pay-
back period seems to be satisfactory.
The average DSCR is computed at 1.42 Times. Although DSCR is low in initial years, it has
been gradually increased.
Indicators Results
Firm IRR 14.81%
Equity IRR 16.41%
NPV- Equity 1,083,689.70 Dollars
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Sensitivity Analysis has been carried out on three different components: Interest Rate, O
& M Cost and Project cost.
Rate Increase/Decrease by 5%
0.00% 16.41%
5.00% 15.91% -3.05%
-5.00% 16.92% 3.06%
O & M Increase/Decrease by 5%
Based on the analysis, It seems that the project cost is highly sensitive as compared with
O&M Expenses and Interest rates. The special focus to provide to project cost ensuring
the cost remains as the as projected.
The Financial Statement of first 10 years of operation has been separately annexed in the
report.
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The Government of Nepal enacted the Solid Waste Management Act of 2011
effective from 15 June 2011. The objectives of the act include maintaining a clean
and healthy environment by minimizing the adverse effects of solid waste on
public health and the environment. The local bodies, such as municipalities, have
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Managing solid waste has been accorded a low priority mainly because the demand is
higher for other public services in many municipalities in Nepal. Local bodies are
experiencing difficulties in developing management plans due to the lack of SWM
baseline information and data related to the functional elements of SWM. It is essential
to know the quantity and composition of MSW when designing and implementing proper
waste management plans that include resource recovery through appropriate methods.
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A set of risk factors which are cross cutting all technologies pertain to due diligence and
transparency at the time of initial project development, selection of plant location and
conducting environmental and social impact assessment. Several plants across the world
have closed down when the above aspects are not addressed appropriately at the right
stage of project evolution. Some of the major risks are highlighted as follows;
The risk should be shared by the municipality and provincial government. The detailed
framework should be decided while developing project development agreement.
Risk Matrix:
Score
10 10A 10B 10C 10D 10E
Catastrophic
9 9A 9B 9C 9D 9E
S 8 8A 8B 8C 8D 8E
e Hazardous
7 7A 7B 7C 7D 7E
v
6 6A 6B 6C 6D 6E
e Major
5 5A 5B 5C 5D 5E
ri
4 4A 4B 4C 4D 4E
t Minor
y 3 3A 3B 3C 3D 3E
2 2A 2B 2C 2D 2E
Negligible
1 1A 1B 1C 1D 1E
Extremely
Occasio Frequen
Impossibl Impossible Remote
nal t
e
A B C D E
Likelihood
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Pre-feasibility Study of
INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PROJECT
ACCEPTABLE LOW
REVIEW MEDIUM
NEED OF
CRITICAL HIGH
ANALYSIS
The above risk matrix has been designed and colour coded on the basis of severity and
likelihood of the risk factor. Severity scale has been given from Negligible to catastrophic
from 1 to 10 respectively whereas the likelihood has been graded from extremely
impossible to Frequent with the alphabet being assigned from A to E respectively. For
example if a risk factor has the score of 4B then it is interpreted as minor on a severity
scale and impossible in terms of likelihood. This will fall under the green colour which
implies the risk is at low acceptable level whereas if the risk factor has the score of 10E
then that implies the severity of catastrophic level with the likelihood of happening as
frequent and it will fall under Red Zone. This implies that this risk factor need careful and
critical analysis prior to the project implementation.
Risk bearing
Risk
in % Possible
S.N. Possible Risks Scor Remarks
Description Gov Devel Mitigation
e
. oper
• Regular
engagement
with all the
Understandi
stakeholders
1 MoU signing ng between 5C 50% 50%
• Transparent
two parties
and
Agreeable
document
• There are land
available but
Land Land 100
2 5C 0% not committed
Acquisition Availability %
for the project
yet
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INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PROJECT
• Early
communicatio
n with the
municipalities
to find the
appropriate
land and get
an early
commitment
• Finding land
away from the
local
settlement
• Following
international
Local Local practices for
3 Opposition Community 6D 90% 10% the landfill
(Land fill Site) Opposition design
• Developing
effective
compensation
package for
the affected
people
• Regular
communicatio
Developer
n with the
should have
developer
Financial all the
4 5C 0% 100% • Making sure all
Closure necessary
the financial
financial
documentatio
documents
n are correct
and verifiable
• Sticking to the
original plan
Infrastructure • Contingency
Time of
5 development 6C 0% 100% plan should be
construction
(Time) incorporate in
the overall
planning
• Structured
Recruitment
Training and
and Staffs and
6 5D 0% 100% development
management labor issues
plan should be
of work force
in place
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Pre-feasibility Study of
INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PROJECT
• Provide
incentive to
the existing
workforce for
retaining them
• Ensure
education
and outreach
program in
Collection and Source
7 1C 0% 100% place for
Segregation Segregation
awareness
raising prior to
the beginning
of the project
• Develop a
scientific
method for
calculating
Finalizing the the tariff rate
8 Tariff Rate 5D 50% 50%
rate • Regular
communicatio
n with all the
relevant
stakeholders
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Pre-feasibility Study of
INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PROJECT
Public-Private Partnership is an agreement between public and private entities for a fixed
period, private entities shall make arrangements to own the potential risks that may arise
partially or fully from all or some portion of financing, building, operation, repair and
maintenance of projects under the PPP model. Such entity provides public services
directly or indirectly through construction and/or operation and/or repair and
maintenance and/or use of public or private assets and shall be entitled to earn
reasonable profit. Public entities shall create environment that facilitates the private
sector’s investments through policies, legal, institutional and economic arrangements22.
It will be appropriate to design a project based on PPP model where Public and Private
Entities are involved. When resources allocated from national treasury fall short, assets of
public utility and operation of public services less costly as well as resources, skills and
technology available with the private sector must be attracted towards development
works of the nation based on the concept of PPP.
In the present context of Janakpur Sub-metropolitan and its adjoining municipalities, PPP
model is suitable. The preliminary study conducted in these municipalities gave the
information that the land will be provided by local government for the development of
integrated solid waste management projects.
22
World Bank, 2072, Public-Private Partnership Policy
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Pre-feasibility Study of
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8.1. Findings
Some of the major findings of the study are listed as follow:
8.2. Recommendations
Based on the findings, the project sounds to be technically as well as financially viable
for developer to invest. Whereas, study of environmental and social aspect as well as in-
depth study of all other components needs to be further considered in the next stage.
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Disclaimer:
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9. ANNEX
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Output- Gas 424,292 471,183 499,878 530,321 562,617 596,881 633,231 671,794 712,707 756,110
Output - organic
fertilizer 32,728 35,763 37,941 40,251 42,702 45,303 48,062 50,989 54,094 57,388
Output-
Reusable/Recycles 359,057 398,738 423,022 448,784 476,115 505,110 535,871 568,506 603,128 639,858
Output - Pesticide 143,070 158,881 168,557 178,822 189,713 201,266 213,523 226,527 240,322 254,958
Total Income 1,153,482 1,273,553 1,347,556 1,425,869 1,508,747 1,596,458 1,689,614 1,788,210 1,892,567 2,003,025
Depreciation 900,142 770,246 659,674 565,536 485,374 404,286 346,122 296,558 254,312 218,290
O & M Expenses 466,408 485,065 504,467 524,646 545,632 567,457 590,155 613,761 638,312 663,844
Operating Profit (213,068) 18,243 183,415 335,687 477,741 624,715 753,337 877,890 999,944 1,120,891
- - - - - - - - - -
Interest Expenses 530,276 507,722 482,337 453,766 421,610 385,417 344,682 298,834 247,232 189,153
Profit (743,344) (489,479) (298,922) (118,079) 56,131 239,298 408,655 579,056 752,711 931,738
Provision for Staff
Bonus - - - - 5,103 21,754 37,150 52,641 68,428 84,703
Net profit (743,344) (489,479) (298,922) (118,079) 51,028 217,544 371,504 526,415 634,046 635,276
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Loan Fund - - - - - - - - - -
Term Loan 4,304,993 4,102,738 3,875,098 3,618,888 3,330,521 3,005,961 2,640,666 2,229,523 1,766,778 1,245,955
Total 5,483,661 4,791,927 4,265,365 3,891,075 3,653,736 3,546,720 3,552,929 3,668,201 3,839,502 3,953,954
Particulars
Fixed Assets (Net) 5,506,564 4,736,318 4,076,643 3,511,107 3,025,732 2,621,446 2,275,325 1,978,766 1,724,455 1,506,165
Investment - - - - - - - - - -
Current Assets (3,469) 75,820 209,741 401,829 650,739 948,918 1,302,195 1,715,008 2,141,644 2,475,450
Sundry Debtors 104,862 115,778 122,505 129,624 137,159 145,133 153,601 162,565 172,052 182,093
Advances - - - - - - - - - -
Cash & Bank Balance (108,331) (39,957) 87,236 272,204 513,580 803,785 1,148,593 1,552,444 1,969,592 2,293,357
Less: Current Liabilities 19,434 20,211 21,019 21,860 22,735 23,644 24,590 25,573 26,596 27,660
Net Current Assets (22,903) 55,609 188,722 379,968 628,004 925,274 1,277,605 1,689,435 2,115,047 2,447,790
Total 5,496,157 4,963,779 4,705,866 4,716,592 4,977,948 5,468,199 6,181,908 7,123,791 8,149,386 8,932,514
The cash balance is seen as negative in initial years, the amount has to be injected by the equity
holders
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Pre-feasibility Study of
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Add: Depreciation 900,142 770,246 659,674 565,536 485,374 404,286 346,122 296,558 254,312 218,290
Add: interest 530,276 507,722 482,337 453,766 421,610 385,417 344,682 298,834 247,232 189,153
Increase/Decrease in Current
Liabilities 19,434 777 808 841 874 909 946 984 (24,096) (79,697)
- - - - - - - - - -
Cash flow from Investing
Activity - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
Cash flow from Financing
Activity - - - - - - - - - -
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- - - - - - - - - -
Increase/Decrease in Cash
and Cash Equivalent (108,331) 68,374 127,193 184,968 241,376 290,205 344,808 403,850 417,148 323,764
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
Balance at the end of period (108,331) (39,957) 87,236 272,204 513,580 803,785 1,148,593 1,552,444 1,969,592 2,293,357
The Equity shareholders needs to inject additional cash for serving Working capital in initial years as assumed in the report Earlier
57