Al-Refaq University

Petroleum Engineering Department

WELL PERFORMANCE PREDICTION USING DECLINE

CURVE ANALYSIS AND ECLIPSE SOFTWARE

A Project Submitted To Al-Refaq University Requirement For

The Degree Of B.Sc. Department of petroleum engineering
Presented By :

Haithem Wahra
Fared Hashad
Supervised By :

Dr. Salem Al-Akhdar

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Contents
Introduction.............................................................................................................4
Chapter 1 – Decline Curve Analysis.........................................................................5
1.1 Introduction to Decline curve analysis.........................................................5
1.2 Decline curve analysis (DCA) history............................................................6
1.3 Factors Affecting Shape of Production Decline Curve..................................7
1.3.1 Human Factors........................................................................................7
1.3.2. Production Conditions..............................................................................7
1.3.3. Reservoir Factors......................................................................................7
1.4 Application of Decline Curves.......................................................................8
1.4.1 Causes of Production Decline...................................................................9
1.4.2 Operating Conditions that Influence the Decline Rate.............................9
1.4.3 Reservoir Factors that Affect the Decline Rate.......................................10
1.5 Types of Decline..........................................................................................10
1.5.1 Exponential Decline...............................................................................10
1.5.2 Harmonic Decline..................................................................................10
1.5.3 Hyperobolic Decline..............................................................................11

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Introduction

Oil is the black blood that runs through the veins of the modern global energy
system.
In some senses, oil can be seen as the black soul of our industrialized/mechanized
society and the trademark of a Western lifestyle.
Its combustion brings energy in immense amounts and can drive a wide array of
machines, tools and processes.
Oil can also be broken down and used as a feedstock in a wide range of chemical
processes, providing everything from medicines to plastics.
It brings wealth and political influence to those who control it.
In essence, oil is a substance of power, in the truest sense of the word.
The aim of this thesis is to investigate fundamental properties and behaviour of
crude oil production and examine some model approaches for creating realistic
outlooks for the future.

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Chapter 1 – Decline Curve Analysis
This chapter described the methodology as well as the basic classification
schemes relevant for decline production crude oil

1.1 Introduction to Decline curve analysis

Globally, the oil and gas production profiles differ considerably.

When a field starts production, it builds up to a plateau state, and every operator
will want to remain in this stage for a very long period of time if possible But in
reality, it is practically not possible, because, at a point in the life of the field, the
production rate will eventually decline to a point at which it no longer produces
profitable amounts of hydrocarbon as shown in Fig. 1.1.
In some fields, the production build-up rate starts in the first few years, most
fields’ profiles have flat top and the length of the flat top depends on reservoir
productivity Some fields have long producing lives depending upon the
development plan of the field and reservoir characteristics such as the reservoir,
drive mechanism Well sin water-drive and gas-cap drive reservoirs often produce
at a near constant rate until the encroaching water or expanding gas cap reaches
the well, thereby causing asudden decline in oil production.
Wells in gas solution drive and oil expansion drive reservoirs have exponential or
hyperbolic declines: rapid declines at first, then leveling off Therefore, decline
curve analysis can be defined as a graphical procedure used for analyzing the rates
of declining production and also a means of predicting future oil well or gas well
production based on past production history
Production decline curve analysis is a traditional means of identifying well
production problems and predicting well performance and life based on measured
oil or gas well production Today, several computer software have been built to
perform this task and prior to the availability of computers, decline curve analysis
was performed by hand on semi-log plot paper Several authors (Rodriguez &
Cinco-Ley (1993), Mikael (2009), Duong (1989) have developed new models or
approach for production decline analysis. Agarwal et al1998 combined type curve

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and decline curve analysis concepts to analysis production data. Doublet et al.
(1994), applied the material balance time for a field using decline curve analysis
Furthermore, as stated by Thompson and Wright (1985), decline curve is one of
the oldest methods of predicting oil reserves with the following advantages
They use data which is easy to obtain
They are easy to plot
They yield results on a time basis
They are easy to analyze

1.2 Decline curve analysis (DCA) history

Arps collected these ideas into a comprehensive set of equations defining the
exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic declines.
His work was further extended by other researchers to include special cases.
Following section gives a historical perspective of work done on the subject;
Arps 1945 and 1950.
Brons 1963 and Fetkovitch 1983 applied constant pressure solution to diffusivity
equation and demonstrated that exponential decline curve actually reflects single
phase, incompressible fluid production from a closed reservoir.
DCA is more than a empirical curve fit.
Fetkovitch 1980 and 1983 developed set of type curves to enhance application of
DCA.
Doublet and Blasingame 1995 developed theoretical basis for combining transient
and boundary dominated flow for the pressure transient solution to the diffusivity
equation.

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1.3 Factors Affecting Shape of Production Decline Curve

The main factors which affect the normal shape of production

decline are:

1.3.1 Human Factors

restricting the flow rate to the allowable set up by the

Regulatory Body, restrictions due to marketing ability,
restrictions due to pipeline capacity, etc.

1.3.2. Production Conditions

Changing the number of wells, which are put on production.

Use of Artificial Lift Methods such as gas lift, submersible pumps.
Changing P1 of the well due to acidization, damage, hydraulic fracturing, etc.
Workover jobs such as reperforating and wells shutdown for pressure tests and
observation.
Changing vertical flow conditions (such as tubing diam.) or changing the surface
conditions (such as pressure required at the wellhead or capacity of surface
facilities).

1.3.3. Reservoir Factors

The reservoir driving mechanisms.

The reservoir rock and fluid properties

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Relative permeability curves. - Use of pressure maintenance,
water flooding, and EOR techniques

1.4 Application of Decline Curves

Production decline curve illustrates the amount of oil and gas produced per unit
of time If the factors affecting the rate of production remaining constant,
the curve will be fairly regular, and, if projected, can give the future production of
the well with an assumption that the factors
that controlled production in the past will continue to do so in future
The above knowledge is used to ascertain the value of a property and proper
depletion and depreciation charges may be made on the books of the operating
company
The analysis of the production decline curve is employed to determine the value
in oil and gas wells economics Identify well production problem
Decline curves are used to forecast oil and gas production for the reservoir and on
per well basis and field life span
Decline curves are also used to predict oil and gas reserves
this can be used as a control on the volumetric reserves
calculated from log analysis results and geological contouring of
field boundaries
It is often used to estimate the recovery factor by comparing
ultimate recovery with original oil in place or gas in place
calculations

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1.4.1 Causes of Production Decline

• Changes in bottom hole pressure (BHP), gas-oil ratio (GOR), water-oil ratio
(WOR), Condition in drilling area
• Changes in Productivity Index (PI)
• Changes in efficiency of vertical & horizontal flow mechanism or changes in
equipment for lifting fluid.
• Loss of wells

1.4.2 Operating Conditions that Influence the Decline Rate

 Separator pressure
 Tubing size
 Choke setting
 Workovers
 Compression
 Operating hours
 Artificial lift
As long as the above conditions do not change, the trend in
decline can be analyzed and extrapolated to forecast future well performance.
If these conditions are altered, for example;
through a well workover, the decline rate, determined during, pre-workover will
not be applicable to the post-workover period.

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1.4.3 Reservoir Factors that Affect the Decline Rate

 Pressure depletion
 Number of producing wells
 Reservoir drive mechanism
 Reservoir characteristics
 Saturation changes and
 Relative permeability

1.5 Types of Decline

1.5.1 Exponential Decline

A straight-line relationship will result when the flow rate versus time is plotted on
a semi log scale and also when the flow rate versus cumulative production is
plotted on a Cartesian scale. 𝐵 = 0

1.5.2 Harmonic Decline

Rate versus cumulative production is a straight line on a semi log scale all other
types of decline curves have some curvature. There are several shifting techniques
that are designed to straighten out the curve that results from plotting flow rate
versus time on a log-log scale B=1

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1.5.3 Hyperobolic Decline

None of the above plotting scales, that is, Cartesian, semi log, or log-log, will
produce a straight-line relationship for a hyperbolic decline. However, if the flow
rate is plotted versus time on log-log paper, the resulting curve can be
straightened out with shifting techniques 0< B >1
Type of decline B Q NP
Exponential 0 q=qi ×e
− D ×t qi−q
NP= ×365
D
Harmonic 1 qi qi qi
q= NP= × ln ⁡( )× 365
(1+ D ×t) D q
hyperbolic 0<>1 qi qi
q= NP= ׿
1
D×(1−b)
(1+b × D× t) b

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