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Scott Jensen For Governor September Poll Memo

This probabilistic survey was conducted September 24 – 26, 2022 with 600 likely general election voters by Cygnal.

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1K views

Scott Jensen For Governor September Poll Memo

This probabilistic survey was conducted September 24 – 26, 2022 with 600 likely general election voters by Cygnal.

Uploaded by

FluenceMedia
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Jensen Closes the Gap & Has Path to Win in Face of Negative Ads

DATE: Thursday, September 29, 2022


TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Brent Buchanan, President & Founder

Jensen is STILL within striking distance after lopsided campaign spending


• Tim Walz only leads by 3% (47.6% to 44.2%), which is within the margin of error
• The survey sample had a Biden+7 retro ballot meaning respondents supported Biden over
Trump by 7% in the 2020 election – exactly what happened in the state two years ago; this is
important because it shows the poll sample is not skewed toward Republicans
• Independent voters support Jensen by a 10-point margin over Walz
• After millions of dollars spent to build his own profile and tear down his opponent, Walz is still
struggling to hit 50%, and he has not moved at all; keep in mind Republicans have yet to
start any type of contrast campaign
• In the suburbs around the Twin Cities, Jensen leads Walz 51% to 42%

Democratic attacks on Scott Jensen have not put him deeply underwater with voters
• Jensen has a 41% favorable image, which has grown from 33% since mid-July
• His image is only -4 comparing favorable to unfavorable, which is much better than most
statewide candidates overwhelmingly attacked by Democrats the last two months
• Matt Birk has increased his favorability from 25% to 35% in the same timeframe
• Walz’ image hasn’t changed at all in the past couple months; Flanagan’s net image has also
remained the same

Biden is a drag on Walz


• A near majority of Minnesotans are (47%) very unfavorable of the President with 53% total
holding an unfavorable opinion of him
• Independents are 63% unfavorable of Biden
• Voters undecided on the governor ballot are 70% unfavorable of Biden

METHODOLOGY: This probabilistic survey was conducted September 24 – 26, 2022 with 600 likely general
election voters. It has a margin of error of ±3.95%.

ABOUT CYGNAL: Cygnal is an award-winning international polling, public opinion, and predictive analytics firm
that pioneered multi-mode polling, text-to-web collection, and emotive analysis. Cygnal consistently ranks as the
most accurate firm, and clients rely on Cygnal’s ability to create intelligence for action. Its team members have
worked in 49 states and 17 countries on more than 2,700 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.

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