Topic
Introduction to
Modeling & Simulation
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 1
What is Simulation?
A Simulation of a system is the operation of a
model, which is a representation of that
system.
• Study the system – measure, improve,
design, control but it’s often impossible
to do so with the actual system
• System doesn’t exist
• Would be disruptive, expensive, or dangerous
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 2
Systems
• System is facility or process, actual or planned
– Examples …
• Manufacturing facility
• Bank operation
• Airport operations (passengers, security, planes, crews, baggage)
• Transportation/logistics/distribution operation
• Hospital facilities (emergency room, operating room, admissions)
• Computer network
• Freeway system
• Business process (insurance office)
• Criminal justice system
• Chemical plant
• Fast‐food restaurant
• Supermarket
• Theme park
• ………………….
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 3
What Is A Model ?
A Representation of an object, a
system, or an idea in some form
other than that of the entity itself.
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 4
Types of Models
• Physical (iconic) models
– Material‐handling models
– Fast‐food restaurants
– Maritime Simulators
– Flight simulators
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 5
Types of Models (cont.)
• Logical (mathematical) models
– Approximations and assumptions about a system’s
operation
– Often represented via computer program in
appropriate software
– Exercise the program to try things, get results,
learn about model behavior
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 6
Studying Logical Models
• If model is simple enough, use traditional
mathematical
– Queuing theory
– Differential equations
– Linear programming
• But complex systems can seldom be validly
represented by a simple analytic model
– Danger of over‐simplifying assumptions
– working on the wrong problem
• Often, a complex system requires a complex
model, and analytical methods don’t apply …
what to do?
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 7
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Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 9
Different Kinds of Simulation
• Static vs. Dynamic
– Does time have a role in the model?
• Continuous‐change vs. Discrete‐change
– Can the “state” change continuously or only at
discrete points in time?
• Deterministic vs. Stochastic
– Is everything for sure or is there uncertainty?
• Most operational models:
– Dynamic, Discrete‐change, Stochastic
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 10
Steps In Simulation and
Model Building
1. Define an achievable goal
2. Put together a complete mix of skills on the
team
3. Involve the end‐user
4. Choose the appropriate simulation tools
5. Model the appropriate level(s) of detail
6. Start early to collect the necessary input
data
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 11
Steps In Simulation and
Model Building(cont’d)
7. Provide adequate and on‐going
documentation
8. Develop a plan for adequate model
verification
(Did we get the “right answers ?”)
9. Develop a plan for model validation
(Did we ask the “right questions ?”)
10. Develop a plan for statistical output
analysis
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 12
Choose The Appropriate Simulation
Tools
Assuming Simulation is the appropriate
means, three alternatives exist:
1. Build Model in a General Purpose
Language
2. Build Model in a General Simulation
Language
3. Use a Special Purpose Simulation
Package
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 13
Examples of General Purpose Languages
Used For Simulation
FORTRAN
– Probably more models than any other language.
PASCAL
– Not as universal as FORTRAN
MODULA
– Many improvements over PASCAL
ADA
– Department of Defense attempt at standardization
C, C++
– Object‐oriented programming language
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 14
Examples of General Purpose
Simulation Languages
GPSS
– Block‐structured Language
– Interpretive Execution
– FORTRAN‐based (Help blocks)
– World‐view: Transactions/Facilities
SIMSCRIPT II.5
– English‐like Problem Description Language
– Compiled Programs
– Complete language (no other underlying language)
– World‐view: Processes/ Resources/ Continuous
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 15
Examples of General Purpose
Simulation Languages (Cont.)
SLAM
– Block‐structured Language
– Interpretive Execution
– FORTRAN‐based (and extended)
– World‐view: Network / event / continuous
CSIM
– process‐oriented language
– C‐based (C++ based)
– World‐view: Processes
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 16
Examples of Special Purpose Packages
Used For Simulation
NETWORK II.5
– Simulator for computer systems
OPNET
– Simulator for communication networks, including
wireless networks
COMNET III
– Simulator for communications networks
SIMFACTORY
– Simulator for manufacturing operations
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 17
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Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 19
The Buffon Needle Problem to Estimate
(George Louis Leclerc, 1733)
[Link]
Or
[Link]
• Buffon needle problem seems silly now, but it has important simulation
features:
– Experiment to estimate something hard to compute exactly
(in 1733)
– Randomness, so estimate will not be exact; estimate the
error in the estimate
– Replication to reduce error
– Sequential sampling to control error — keep tossing until
probable error in estimate is “small enough”
– Variance reduction
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 20
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Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 25
Don’t Simulate When
Jerry Banks & Randall Gibson
• Rule (1) The problem can be solved using
"common sense analysis"
• Rule (2) The problem can be solved analytically
• Rule (3) It's easier to change or perform direct
experiments on the real system
• Rule (4): The cost of the simulation exceeds
possible savings
• Rule (5): There aren't proper resources available
for the project
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 26
Don’t Simulate When (cont.)
Jerry Banks & Randall Gibson
• Rule (6): There isn't enough time for the
model results to be useful
• Rule (7): There is no data–not even estimates
• Rule (8): The model can't be verified or
validated
• Rule (9): Project expectations can't be met
• Rule (10): If system behavior is too complex,
or can't be defined
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation? 27
Check Ms Team
for
ASSIGNMENT 1
&
ITS SUBMISSION DUE DATE
Topic 1 – What Is Simulation?
