Climate Action Day Conference « Green growth: Our future, Our benefit »

Climate Action Day Conference « Green growth: Our future, Our benefit »

Solutions for a low-carbon transition

and prospects for COP-21
The Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project

(DDPP)
Henri WAISMAN
IDDRI
2°C TARGET, COP-21 AND DECARBONIZATION
2°C, a political target
to avoid dangerous climate change
 “Deep cuts in global GHG emissions are required according to
science, and as documented in IPCC AR4, […] so as to hold the
increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-
industrial levels” (Cancun agreement - décision 1/CP.16)
What it means to meet
the 2°C target (IPCC)
 Limiting cumulative carbon emissions until 2100 below 1000 GtCO2
 At current pace (36 GtCO2 in 2010), budget exhausted in 15 - 40 years
What it means to meet
the 2°C target (IPCC)
 Urgency of action
 Global peaking around 2020
 A deep global transformation

 Carbon neutrality in the second half of XXIe century
 Global emissions divided by more than 2 between now and 2050
 Emissions per capita divided by more than 3 by 2050
 Emissions per GDP divided by almost 10
COP-21, the political answer to the
scientific challenges
4 interlinked pillars of the COP-21 negotiations
 The legal agreement

 Differentiation, transparency, monitoring, review…
 The national INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions)
 National emission reduction by 2030 + adaptation, conditionality…
 Finance
 Green Climate Fund
 The Agenda of Solutions
 Organizing the concrete measures in collaboration with business
and local authorities
Decarbonization, a renewed vision
of the low-carbon transformation
 Taking 2°C seriously requires profound transformations
(≠ marginal adjustments around current trends)
 Long-term strategic vision to inform short term decisions
(≠ risks of lock-ins)
 National-scale approach to account for domestic circumstances
and promote synergies with socio-economic priorities
(≠ tradeoff btw environment and development)
 International cooperation to enable national transitions
(≠ competition and burden-sharing)
 An emerging concept as framing tool for international discussions on

climate (Lima draft agreement, G7 announcement, )
OPERATIONALIZING THE CONCEPT OF
DECARBONIZATION
Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDPs)
DDP = internally coherent national low-carbon transformations in the

global low-carbon era
 National circumstances (eg, resource endowment), interests (eg,

competitiveness) and needs (eg, development priorities)
 Explicit content: What concrete measures? How to implement?
 Long-term (2050): Articulation btw short-term decisions and the

long-term objective
Possible roles of (non-binding)
DDPs at COP-21
 The legal agreement
 Inform the debates on transparency, differentiation
 The national INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions)
 Structure the post-2015 review of INDCs by each Party to increase
global ambition
 Finance
 Identify priority needs for support from international finance to
national transitions
 The Agenda of Solutions
 Maps out necessary solutions to enable the global transformation
The Deep Decarbonization
Pathways Project
 Initiated by SG Ban Ki-moon & French Presidency of COP-21
 2014 report presented at World Climate Summit
 2015 report will be delivered to French Presidency
 Convened by SDSN (J Sachs) and IDDRI (Laurence Tubiana)
 Objective : identify the

decarbonization solutions
in 15 countries
 Extend the analysis to new

countries after September 2015
The 4 pillars of decarbonization
 Reducing energy demand

 Energy efficiency
 Energy conservation
 Structural change
 Decarbonizing energy supply
 Electricity, liquids, gases
 Fuel switching towards low-carbon energies in end-uses
 Buildings, transport, industry
 Carbon sinks
 Land-use, reforestation
DDPP country teams and partners
Indonesian partners
• Centre for Climate Risk and Oportunity
Management, Bogor Agriculture
University
• Centre for Research on Energy Policy,
Bandung Institute of Technology
12/9/14 13
DD is feasible in all contexts
12/9/14 14
DD requires strong and articulated action
on all technical pillars
DD means country-specific strategies of
technological deployment
DD is compatible with continued
economic growth and development
Beyond techniques: structural change
and development styles
AN INDONESIAN DDP (ILLUSTRATIVE)
Key elements of the illustrative pathway
 Development indicators
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population [Millions] 234 252 271 289 307
GDP per capita [$/capita] 2,306 3,655 5,823 9,319 14,974
Electrification rate 70% 85% 99% 99% 99%
Poverty indicator 12% 8% 3% 3% 2%
 Energy efficiency improvements would be deployed in all sectors.
 Deployment of low-carbon energy sources (fuel switching from coal/oil to gas,
and from onsite fuel combustion to electricity).
 Massive utilization of renewable resources: solar, hydro, and geothermal for
power generation, biofuels in transport, and biomass, biofuels and biogas in
industry.
 Structural changes in the economy (i.e. decreased role of industry in GDP
through service sector substitution)
Pillars of decarbonization
Pillar 1. Pillar 2.
Energy Efficiency Decarbonization of Electricity
Energy intensity of GDP Elect. emission intensity
2010 8.7 MJ/$ 2010 779 gCO2/kWh
− 89%
2050 2.3 − 74% 2050 82
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 0 200 400 600 800 1000
Pillar 3.
Electrification of end-uses % of electricity in final energy
2010 12% +23 pct
2050 35%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Primary energy
Primary Energy (EJ)

14  Increase the share of natural gas
12 +118 %
12.2  Significantly increase the share
Nuclear
10
of renewables,
Renewables
8 Coal w CCS
 Reduce oil consumption,
6 5.6 Coal  Reduce coal share,
Oil  Equip a fraction of coal and gas
4
Nat. Gas w CCS plants with CCS, and
2
Nat. Gas  Begin to use nuclear power.
0
2010 2050
Final energy
Final Energy (EJ)

12
+130 % 10.97
 Significantly increase share of
10 Electricity
electricity
8 Biomass
 Increase the share of natural gas,
6 Biofuel
4.75
Oil fuels
 Decrease the share of coal use,
4
Gas  Significantly increase biofuels
2
Coal use, and
0
2010 2050  Decrease the use of oil fuels.
Emission trends
Mt CO2
600
500 27
25 28
104 87
400 23 115 Buildings
28
118 67
300 207 Transportation
180 220
200 156 218 Industry
100
Electricity
174 192 168
137 89
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
 National emissions will first increase (due to economic development)

and then decrease towards 1,7tCO2/cap
 Significant decarbonization in power sector and transport sector
 Emissions from industrial sector continue to increase
www.deepdecarbonization.org

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Climate Action Day Conference « Green growth: Our future, Our benefit »

Solutions for a low-carbon transition

The Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project

 A deep global transformation

 The legal agreement

 An emerging concept as framing tool for international discussions on

DDP = internally coherent national low-carbon transformations in the

 National circumstances (eg, resource endowment), interests (eg,

 Explicit content: What concrete measures? How to implement?

 Long-term (2050): Articulation btw short-term decisions and the

 Objective : identify the

 Extend the analysis to new

 Reducing energy demand

2010 8.7 MJ/$ 2010 779 gCO2/kWh

2010 12% +23 pct

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Primary Energy (EJ)

Final Energy (EJ)

 National emissions will first increase (due to economic development)

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