Holding Tight: CRISIL Research Survey of Private Equity and Venture Capital
Holding Tight: CRISIL Research Survey of Private Equity and Venture Capital
Holding Tight: CRISIL Research Survey of Private Equity and Venture Capital
Research
Feeling
What we know What we understand
the pulse
Entire global economy is reeling under a Even in alternative funds space, the flow of
pandemic-triggered recession. Various money or investments is slow
industries are struggling to find ways to
survive this crisis
Answers we got
The views and expectations of investors obtained from the survey and interaction is presented
in our report titled ‘Holding tight’
The findings are based on survey and telephonic interactions with key stakeholders in private equity, venture capital and other alternative funds. The survey, conducted between May and
Approach June this year, received responses from 26 independent funds and respondents. It gathered insights to glean an outlook on private equity and venture capital funds through questions
pertaining to investments, fundraising, exit, portfolio performance expectation over the next 6-12 month and 12-24 month timeframes, compared with 2019, and to identify the focus areas
of investors in future.
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Key
messages
Over the next one year, private equity PE and VC investments, excluding
(PE) and venture capital (VC) players Jio-platfrom, will decline this fiscal,
will focus on managing existing portfolios but will log a quick, though moderate,
and will be less aggressive on new recovery next fiscal
investments
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Pandemic slams Quick recovery in PE and VC investments
With companies’ performance declining, risk of
and venture
Rise expected in M&A activities
capital activity
66% expect an uptick in M&A Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) for inorganic ex-
1/2 activity, only 28% expect a
decline in next 6-12 months
pansion and strategic exits will rise as firms put capex
plans on hold.
6-12 months 12-24 months
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Pandemic slams Portfolio firm performance Attention focused on Investors eye
expected to decline managing existing innovation and/ or
the brakes on portfolios lower valuations
In the next 6-12 months, 80%
private equity of investors expect portfolio
performance to decline, In the next 6-12 months, Differentiated solutions and
particularly in terms of financial 43% of investors will a correction in valuations
will see contraction in 4% Decline in investments expected to be short term with ~70% of investors
expecting a marginal recovery next year.
performance this fiscal,
although 54% are still 42% PEs are expected to focus on segments minimally impacted by the
pandemic.
bullish on certain key 54%
sectors Over a longer term, these segments will see a positive structural change that
will drive stronger growth due to changing consumer behaviour.
Bearish across Sector selective bullish
Wait and watch with caution Promising opportunities in emerging sectors such as technology,
e-commerce and healthcare will keep investment activities humming.
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Economic Economic impact
slowdown, Weaker global demand: Global V-shaped recovery
gross domestic product (GDP) to India GDP expected in GDP growth with
pandemic contract by 5.2% in 2020
World Bank Global economic
to decline by 5.0% in
FY21
average 7% CAGR
over FY22-24
-5.2% prospectus June 2020 -5.0% 7%
make
current fiscal
Corporate impact
challenging
Profitability: Ebitda Credit metrics
India Inc to see more than 15%
to fall faster than weakening across
slide in revenue in FY21
revenue sectors
Forecast of a 5% decline
in GDP has raised red
flags already. Worse
may be in the offing if Behavioural impact
the pandemic scenario
extends
Lower discretionary Increased adoption Higher penetration of
spending of technology e-commerce services
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Investments PE and VC investments grew significantly over the past five years, but have trended down since the
fourth quarter of fiscal 2020
falling since PE and VC investments clocked a robust Investments in first quarter of fiscal 2021 Monthly investments in the last four months, i.e.
22% CAGR since fiscal 2015 very low excluding outlier investments from March to June, were 60-70% lower than the
fourth quarter raised by Jio platforms monthly average of the last three years
of last fiscal 50 20
Variation in investments w.r.t to average monthly investments
for last 12 months
40 15 80%
10
$ billion
30
$ billion
20 5
0 0%
10
Jan-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Nov-19
Dec-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
May-20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
0 FY19 FY20 FY21
Uncertainty in economic growth FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Investments Jio Platform Reliance Jio’s tower arm -80%
Impact on valuations due to Note: India-based AIFs and domestic funds, International funds, pension and sovereign funds investments are considered for total investments
Source: News articles, IVCA, CRISIL Research
change in assumptions
Investee focus on survival over Technology and IT Financial services Real estate Infrastructure
business expansion
E-commerce Technology and IT Financial services Financial services
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Deployment of 58% of investors say investments will decline over the next one year; however, sentiment quickly turns positive
Investments will decline in the short term over concerns and uncertainty over India Inc. performance
slow given the Outlook is expected to be more positive in the long run as 70% of respondents are hopeful of improvement, but largely with marginal growth as companies
would struggle to regain post-Covid-19 growth trajectory
uncertainty in 50%
Overall investment climate will be muted as only 11% are focusing on new investments
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Pandemic Investors have extreme negative growth outlook on revenue, profitability and financial stability of portfolio companies
casts a pall In the short term, more than 80% investors expect a decline across all parameters
on portfolio In the longer run, performance would not improve majorly but will be less negative. Long-term horizon will still be largely as-is or marginally decline
With negative outlook, there will be some write-offs and loss lingering around the corner for funds, impacting their overall returns. With portfolio growth
performance performance impacted funds may stay invested longer for expected rate of return
46% expect drastic 46% 46% 4% 4% 38% 46% 4% 12% 77% 12% 0%
12%
reduction in revenue Q. What is your
firm’s outlook 6-12 months
on portfolio
38% expects drastic companies for
reduction in profitability the following
parameters? 12-24 months
89% expect decline in 35% 27% 23% 15% 42% 27% 8% 23% 27% 42% 12% 19%
0% 50% 100%
objective over
the next Over 75% investors look at optimising manpower and operational expenses for managing performance
one year GPs expect portfolio companies to mange cost structure by managing operational expense, optimising manpower and deferring geographic expansions
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Exit market to Firms are expected to delay exits over the longer horizon for
better returns
Exits have been declining and the past two
fiscals have had a lower number of exit deals
stay dull, but Exit options are likely to be limited. Funds would prefer to stay invested longer to
achieve desired returns
5
M&As to see A recovery in the exit market will be very slow, as 44% expect a decline even in the
longer term and 28% expect a marginal improvement over 12-24 months with only 6%
4
$$billions
billion
2
67%
Reduce drastically
Q. How do you 44% Reduce marginally 1
see exits to Remain the same
28% 28% 0
95% of investors expect be impacted
17%
Q1_FY19
Q2_FY19
Q3_FY19
Q4_FY19
Q1_FY20
Q2_FY20
Q3_FY20
Q4_FY20
Q1_FY21
Improve marginally
compared to
a major decline in exits in 2019? 0%
6% 6% Improve strongly
M&As for expansion and as strategic exits will see increased Exits via M&A have been fairly good in the
traction post-Covid-19 past few years, as the IPO market was dry
66% of investors have a positive outlook on M&A deals in the short term, but this Exits via M&A deals would see an uptick in FY21
rises to 77% in long term. M&As will see a moderation in the longer horizon, as more
investors expect a marginal rise than strong growth 100
Mergers of health-tech
platform DocsApp with
Medibuddy
75
# of deals
44% 44% HCG Global : Oncology
Q. How do Reduce drastically 50 Hospitals
you see M&A 33%
Reduce marginally
deals to fare 22% 22% 25
Remain the same Merger of DocCare AI with
compared to HealWell24
2019? 11%
Improve marginally 0
6% 6% 6%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
CRISIL Research survey of private Improve strongly
6-12 months 12-24 months
equity, and venture capital and funds
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GPs stayed away from fundraising in first quarter of fiscal 2021 due to a freeze in commitments from risk-
Indian funds averse LPs and adequate capital in hand for limited investment opportunities.
saw limited Over 30% growth in funds raised Third quarter of fiscal 2020 saw highest funds raised / an- LPs freeze commitments
since FY18 nounced in a while, but April was zero, while May showed Overall lower risk appetite
fundraising slight traction. for LPs due to uncertainty in
growth
in last two 15 4
LPs wary of backing new funds
or GPs
quarters
$ billion
billion
10
2
Restriction on roadshows/
US $$Bn
5 fundraising activities
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
nil in first quarter this FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
FY19 FY20 FY21 Enough dry powder with PE
fiscal
and VC funds
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Fundraising to Funds have a surplus of uninvested capital.
Plus fundraising is not major concern as
Fundraising is expected to be muted in fiscal 2021, as
~90% do not expect to raise funds during the year
be minimal as investment opportunities will be limited
Recovery in fundraising is expected after 12 months, with 50% having
a positive outlook
there is ample There is enough dry powder With an uptick in funds raised in
with India-focused funds for
capital available investments
the previous quarters, the available
capital for deployment is sufficient
Q. How do you
33% 33%
Reduce drastically
investment is expected
to be a bigger challenge
than availability of funds India has the potential to attract international funds India-focused fundraising activity has not stalled; there
for deployment, but more has been very slow movement in Q1 FY21
Almost 60% of investors agree about India’s potential for attracting
than 60% of investors are investments in the APAC in the long run
WestBridge in talks to raise fresh
positive India will attract money from LPs for an evergreen
Gaja Capital initiated fundraising
for $400-500 million
international capital in the More positive view fund (> $500 million)
APAC post the 4% Iron Pillar raised $45 million for Basis Vectors Water Bridge
0%
pandemic? existing portfolio companies ($50 million) ($10 million)
Strongly Agree Can't say Disagree Strongly
CRISIL Research survey of private agree disagree
equity, and venture capital and funds Note: Funds raised or initiated from April 2020; Source: News articles, CRISIL Research
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Investors
50% of investors are looking for investments in innovative businesses that will perform well in the long run
will evaluate
Innovative business solutions / strategies, along with a correction in valuations, will attract investors to explore new portfolio firms.
options for new
deployment of 100%
% of investors
Q. Which of the 50%
capital following reasons are
more valid for you to
50%
46%
27% 23% 19% 15%
invest in new portfolio
0%
companies? Innovative business Lower valuation Change in Buying of distressed Opportunity for New investments
solutions and consumer behaviour assets for inorganic growth: are not likely
During periods of slow strategies and rise in demand turnaround consolidation in
industry
economic growth, good
investment opportunities
are expected to be limited. 39% of investors expect debt funding to rise in current scenario
Funds will also take longer
Sharp rise is expected in private debt funding. Private debt funding is at a nascent stage in India, and has been growing moderately.
than usual to complete due
diligence, further delaying Many funds such as CDPQ, along with Piramal Partners, Apollo global management, KKR, and Alteria capital have raised / announced capital for private
credit / structured debt
investments
27%
23%
Q. Will private debt / 19%
15%
convertible debt instruments 12%
see more traction in current 4%
scenario?
A great deal A lot Moderate Little None at all Only temporing
amount debt funding /
CRISIL Research survey of private bridge capital
equity, and venture capital and funds
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E-commerce will remain the sector of choice with investor interest of 58%, followed by healthcare with 46%
Chunk of Healthcare has grown to be among the top-three sectors, along with e-commerce, technology and IT-enabled solutions. Gaming and deep tech are special
mentions.
1. E-commerce
investments to 100% 2. Healthcare focus
% of investors
58%
12 months, 46%
deep traditional healthcare segments
15%
in following
Industrial
Other (please
Consumer non-
Materials
Healthcare
Consumer food
Consumer
Real Estate
E-commerce
Telecommunicati
Infrastructure
Energy
Utilities
Financial and
and beverages
durable
insurance
durable (D)
on services
specify)
sectors
Healthcare sector is
ranked 2 for investor
interest above Tech and IT Consumer and digital platform have been the Venture capital and growth funding will largely be
theme for investments in 2020 till now the strategy for PE and VC players in 2020
Top sectors in deal making since Jan’20 to May’20 More than 70% of investors will look for venture capital and growth funding in
key focus sectors;
35% of investors will look to invest in and revive distressed assets
Sectors Themes
% of investors
element of
Healthcare Tech-based solutions 50%
your firm’s 35%
23%
E-commerce Vertical segment e-commerce investment 15% 12% 8%
strategy in 0%
BFSI NBFCs and tech solution 0%
2020
Buyout
capital and
/ Debt capital
Infrastructur
Environment
in distressed
specify)
Governance
(please
Investments
, Social and
investments
e and real
Other
Venture
funding
growth
assets
estate
assets
(ESG)
Credit
Logistics Logistics infra and management system
CRISIL Research survey of private Enterprise SaaS Support solutions for digital world
equity, and venture capital and funds
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PEs to focus CRISIL Research analysis for key sectors
RE commercial
Renewable
Healthcare services
disruption means
investment opportunity
in innovative solution
providers
E-commerce
(health-tech, edu-
tech, fintech)
Funding requirement
Consumer
products
Tech and IT
Health-tech
PEs expected to focus Organised retail
on segments that will (offline)
see minimal negative
Pharma E-commerce impact of the pandemic Banking and
Logistics NBFC
Fintech and have strong growth
Edu-tech prospects Healthcare
Growth of e-commerce Manufacturing /
industrial
services (offline)
Pharma
segment has not been Consumer discretionary
Consumer foods
Logistics
impacted much and it
Five-year growth prospects
is still expected to grow RE: residential
Demand in FY21
over 20% over the next Demand in
FY21
Highly
negative
Marginally
negative
About 0%
growth
Marginally
positive
Highly
positive
RE: commercial
Marginally negative
Marginally positive
Highly positive
Roads^
About 0% growth
Renewables
Low High -- No change ++
Within e-commerce, edu-tech and health-tech will perform better than fintech, as the financial sector and lending see slow movement in the current fiscal year
Consumer packaged foods and offerings related to health and wellness will see more demand from consumers
Real estate will see lesser interest, as the sector is already in a bad shape and demand will further deteriorate
Over the longer term, segments such as health-tech, edu-tech, technology and IT, and pharma will see a positive structural change, driving stronger growth
amid changing consumer behavior
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In addition to pharma and medical devices, digital and tech-enabled healthcare segments are expected to
Tech and gain due to higher health consciousness
healthcare
sector to 5X e-consultation
Increase in interest for online doctor
Digital Therapeutics
Self-health management / monitoring
Medical IOT
Connect all healthcare devices to
Specialised healthcare delivery
Online pharmacy
apps, track progress and report
focus on AI consultation in India. Popularity
above 50 for seven consecutive
weeks#
tools for lifestyle disorders, such as
managing blood sugar, weight care,
heart health
health summary to doctors
E-consultation/ telemedicine
Health-tech (B2B+B2C)
solutions for Point of care Diagnostics: Testing AI and machine learning Forced adaptation Pharmaceuticals and biotech
efficiency
at clinic or on field immediately would Varied applications from screening and Covid-19 has pushed consumers
help in increasing geographical diagnostics to analytics data to help to try buying healthcare services
access and better turnaround physicians provide proven consultation digitally, aiding consumer acquisition Medical devices
in future
AI and Machine learning are new entrants among cloud, SaaS and data analytics
Tech (including IT and ITeS)
and healthcare saw over 100
deals in the three months Enterprise SaaS –
Business solutions
through Jun’20 Artificial intelligence Cloud computing Digital economy
A Nasscom study reveals that 50% The delivery servers, storage, The future of work will be co-
of tech start-ups consider AI as big databases, networking, software, existence of humans and technology- Ed-Tech, Fin-Tech, Health-Tech
technology opportunity analytics, intelligence and more over enabled devices
the Internet
SCM and Logistics
Agriculture focus
Healthcare focus Logistics and SCM BOTS
40% of start-ups consider healthcare The segment is attracting investments Solutions powered by AI and machine
vertical as a big opportunity in the for logistics management services. learning are increasingly aiding AI, Data Analytics
tech segment Agri-sector to be in focus efficiency and optimising human
interaction for critical tasks
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E-commerce segments are expected to gain due to increased acceptability during the lockdown, resulting
Tech in deeper penetration over the longer period
offerings in E-commerce
Others
NBFCs / microfinance Alternative lending
Under-penetrated financial services P2P, invoice financing, mobile lending,
in driving investments for last-mile crowd funding, are other tech-led
financial inclusion models
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Analytical contacts
Rahul Prithiani
Director
[email protected]
Anjali Nathwani
Associate Director
[email protected]
Apurva Salvi
Senior Research Analyst
[email protected]
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